This may be the greatest betting derby in history..............Curlin won\'t hit the board.
A lot of us here thought the same thing about Smarty. All those 0\'s and negative numbers heading into Churchill with a 100,000-plus crowd and a 20 horse field - surely he\'d bounce. The one glaring differnce is Smarty did race at 2.
I hate playing horses like Smarty Jones and Curlin. But with today\'s patterns, move up trainers and injections, you HAVE to include them in your wagers or you\'ll burn a lot of cash.
Take Saturday for instance. On thoropatterns and thoro numbers I saw at least 4 horses in the Ark Derby who were must plays at the odds. Got nothing - not even a sniff as Curlin\' drove away with my cash.
That said - My top pick has been Street Sense. I will key him ON TOP but now will have to shcedule some savors with AGS, GH, CURL, HS and perhaps CQ
Curlin is a great throwout. The Media is going to talk him up like he\'s the next Barbaro. Make him prove it at short odds in what is going to be an amazing betting race.
Look at it this way...There\'s only 1 Derby. There\'s only 1 race with 20 betting interests in America with the shot to get rich on a dollar box. Toss the chalk. You can bet a 3-1 shot any of the other 364 days of the year at any track in the country anytime you want. Don\'t \'waste\' this golden opportunity by chalking out.
Imallin,
Now that is the right attitude and take on the Derby.
Richiebee what are your thoughts about a Jesuit picking a Dominican?
NC Tony
NCT:
You should get very playable odds on him.
I need to take a page from General Patton and ask you to use your considerable
influence with the man upstairs and pray for some good weather. I haven\'t been
on the golf course yet this year.
Yeah its a great betting race. What I have been thinking about tonight is
throwing out all the \"Jinx\" runners. Pletcher Jinx (Scat, Coaltown, Circular
and Any Given.. is there any one I missed?), BC Juvie Jinx (Street Sense) and
No 2YO race Jinx (Curlin). And I do not know the answer to the trivia question,
but maybe Tiago is \"Jinxed\" (have siblings ever won the Derby?).
Like you have said, you really have to wait to see who\'s in the gate and where
but I hate to say I\'m looking at 2 who won their last prep on poly: The Pa bred
Hard Spun and the Rug Warrior, Dominican. Nobiz could be 8- 10/1 and is
very bettable at that number.
The problem for me is that I want to play the Oaks Derby Double, and Pletcher\'s
Rags to Riches was bet like death and taxes in all 3 rounds of the Oaks Future
wager. All 3 of her lifetime wins have come at Santa Anita, the most recent of
which was a blowout in the SA Oaks at 2/5 in a 5 horse field. If you beat her,
almost any double should be lucrative. My problem is I haven\'t seen many of
these filies run; will have to go to the videotape.
richiebee Wrote:
---------------------------------
>
>
> Like you have said, you really have to wait to see
> who\'s in the gate and where
> but I hate to say I\'m looking at 2 who won their
> last prep on poly: The Pa bred
> Hard Spun and the Rug Warrior, Dominican. Nobiz
> could be 8- 10/1 and is
> very bettable at that number.
>
> The problem for me is that I want to play the Oaks
> Derby Double, and Pletcher\'s
> Rags to Riches was bet like death and taxes in all
> 3 rounds of the Oaks Future
> wager. All 3 of her lifetime wins have come at
> Santa Anita, the most recent of
> which was a blowout in the SA Oaks at 2/5 in a 5
> horse field. If you beat her,
> almost any double should be lucrative. My problem
> is I haven\'t seen many of
> these filies run; will have to go to the
> videotape.
Richiebee
Take a look at Sealy Hill another rug runner.Her Bourbonette was solid on the same day that Hard Spun and Dominican won over the Turfway poly.Nice turn move and she was able to hang on against Panty Raid another Pletcher.I grabbed 40-1 in the last Oaks pool.
Hard Spun has a nice looking graph,but that Lanes End was a perfect trip stalking Starbase and Bullara who offered no resistance on the turn.Will have to pass better horses on the front end and then hold off some real runners in behind.Tall order and Larry Jones is a brutal 5% at CD.
Dominican sprouts wings when he gets out in the clear.An honest pace will only help.His CD #\'s from last year weren\'t bad.I think he\'ll be fine on dirt.Trip and traffic-he\'ll need to get lucky.Look for the pink silks.
I\'m leaning to AGS getting the jump off the turn,but Dominican could be a bear.
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This may be the greatest betting derby in
> history..............Curlin won\'t hit the board.
Are you saying he\'s a lock to bounce or he isn\'t fast enough?
I\'ve never seen a year where the Beyer figures differ so much from The Sheets and TG.
Ill Bred,
Noticed the same thing, it\'s ground loss/weight. When I did the conversions, it was glaring. Most of the time the conversions, scale to scale, are fairly tight(meaning the fig makers mainly agree)If you look at the Derby runners involved you will mainly see the wide runners showing much faster TG/Rags figs than Beyer on this occasion.That is not always the case as some would think.
It is seldom that I have seen a very fast RAG fig that was not \"loaded\" with ground loss(I call that a phoney wide fig when conditions suit).TG does not do that as much.
Mike
Curlin is the greatest bounce play of all time.Todd P\'s posse wrecking the race. 20 plus horses,tearing out of the gate going into the first turn. Lord it can\'t get much better than this.......
After a cursory look, the Arkansas Derby looked fast and Curlin seemed to win in hand. Have great trouble believing it only scored a 103 on Beyer and have no idea what TGraph scored it. If its about a negative 1 how could you possibly consider Curlin a toss?
Dominican has looked like a plausible racehorse on Poly. However on Dirt he has been less than stellar. If theres an extremely hot Derby pace and/or he catches the right part of Churchill\'s lanes, he could potentially catch some of the board. (The right lane has been very important the last two years.) Believing his Bluegrass effort was a fairly good effort theres just no reason to believe he will be nearly as effective upon a traditional surface. He couldn\'t get within 6 of Any Given Saturday in November. If he\'s outdistanced that one since then, I sure can\'t discern it.
Its gonna be a fun one. Theres some good horses in there and a couple with big big chances at big big odds.
imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin is a great throwout. The Media is going to
> talk him up like he\'s the next Barbaro. Make him
> prove it at short odds in what is going to be an
> amazing betting race.
>
> Look at it this way...There\'s only 1 Derby.
> There\'s only 1 race with 20 betting interests in
> America with the shot to get rich on a dollar box.
> Toss the chalk. You can bet a 3-1 shot any of the
> other 364 days of the year at any track in the
> country anytime you want. Don\'t \'waste\' this
> golden opportunity by chalking out.
Equipment change for Dominican in February.
Gelded...
Well, nothing against a Gelding in the Derby, They said Funny Cide couldn\'t win it. But not nearly as big a believer upon the Geld being decisive. The horse was on a progressive line pre Geld. His first Geld race it looks like he may have improved marginally, but the improve was consistent with an overall positive trend. Tgraph is apparently going to discount the race on slow pace and pad Dominicans figure on wide. I disagree with both of those adjustments. Think he ran about a 2.5 or so, but he ran it on the surface he runs best upon. Even if he runs a 2.5 Derby it won\'t be nearly good enough. Don\'t see his Derby going faster on his pedigree either.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/dominican4
This is beginning to get exciting isn\'t it?
lol
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Equipment change for Dominican in February.
Chuck
Why do you have Dom dirt negative, poly positive? Sure his only win at 2 was on Poly but the TGs show a way different story. Check the Rushaway in the ROTW archives. He\'ll probably be dismissed by most as poly specialist, creating some value.
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin is the greatest bounce play of all
> time.Todd P\'s posse wrecking the race. 20 plus
> horses,tearing out of the gate going into the
> first turn. Lord it can\'t get much better than
> this.......
An even bigger bounce play than Keats? That one stopped so bad he damn near killed the five horses behind him. Ask Pat Day about that race...
Whats the difference, he\'s not that fast on dirt or poly and had two near perfect trips. Two back though, he had to wait to move in the stretch after a perfect inside trip.
Mike
was just looking at \'06 final ky derby numbers and reading what you guys are saying and bouncing , maybe a couple similarities to last year , imo - although he was an 02X going in , keyed entry kind of resembles curlin - if you forget the lone 2 yo race , also interesting to note , sinister minister bounced 15 pts ...
The Rushaway was Poly-Scam, he did get credit for a TGraph 4 abouts in his last Churchill start. Apparently Wide was bona fide wide that day. He was still beaten 4 lengths by Zanjero.
FYI I picked Sinister Minister last year. I could certainly be wrong. Its just my very strong opinion that this horse relishes poly. He gets beat by daylight plus on dirt and wins on poly. Last year, pre geld, he was close to the pace in his poly Keeneland race. The truth is he\'s always run fairly close to the pace. (but for slop), Which indicates hes got a bit more speed than given credit for and that the pace in the Bluegrass was more legitimate than generally thought, but I don\'t think hes near the same horse off poly-scam.
He\'s obviously not a bad horse. Just don\'t think he\'s gonna measure up when the going gets as tough as its gonna get.
flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck
>
> Why do you have Dom dirt negative, poly positive?
> Sure his only win at 2 was on Poly but the TGs
> show a way different story. Check the Rushaway in
> the ROTW archives. He\'ll probably be dismissed by
> most as poly specialist, creating some value.
Ctc,
Dominican has improved since the ridgling became a gelding. His race at churchill behind AGS and Tiz wnderfule was actually quite good but prior to the procedure.
I think you all best consider these facts in addition to the RUG connotation, cause as we know we have seen horses jump up from Rug to dirt before.
NC Tony
Why do you care what this clown thinks, and who has as poor of a history of winners as does Beyer?
NC Tony
Mike,
You see races through poly colored glasses.
NC Tony
Tony as for my picks in the Derby, I\'ll post them again, but not right now. Having bet the race since 1988, I\'ve won six Derbies and finished second in about as many. I think thats a pretty good record, though it should be better. To my knowledge Beyer has never won a Derby.
I still think I bet the best horse in the Derby last year, Sinister Minister, but its seems apparent at this point hes never going to come back to that race. TGraph has a theory that really big efforts can undo a horse and that may have been Sinisters fate. TGraph will probably hold to that belief with Bellamy Road. That is that the big Wood undid him. I believe in the Big Race stress factor, but sometimes disagree with how big a race is. Sinisters Bluegrass was clearly big, but I\'ve never completely dismissed part of it was horse for course big. Which brings us to the current issue.
Was Dominican\'s Bluegrass win really a big win and was is run over a formful surface?
Ironically, it was run at the very same track. Which by all appearances now has as big, or an even bigger horse for course bias.
Dominican vs. Teuflesberg...head to head?
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> Dominican has improved since the ridgling became a
> gelding. His race at churchill behind AGS and Tiz
> wnderfule was actually quite good but prior to the
> procedure.
>
> I think you all best consider these facts in
> addition to the RUG connotation, cause as we know
> we have seen horses jump up from Rug to dirt
> before.
>
> NC Tony
Curlin is just the kind of a favorite to wreck this this race; visually impressive, but unraced at 2 bothers me. I\'m driving the Great Hunter bandwagon and I\'m sticking to him. Have we all forgotten about Circular Quay??
Ctc,
Are you proposing a wager?
NC Tony
Tony he will tell you who he had around 7:30 PM on Saturday on the first Saturday in May.
He does it every year.........
No Eddie.Some of us have not forgotten CQ.It\'s quite possible CQ has run the
fastest TG# for a 3 year old male so far.I\'m sticking to him and his 8 week
layoff.Yes,he hasn\'t gone past 8 1/2 furlongs,but so what!Everything about
this horse suggests distance will not be an issue.Coming from so far back through
traffic is the only concern I have.Hopefully a Pleasant Colony trip is in the
works.
farewell
lol
You KNOW thats not true.
I\'ve already said too much.
Let the best horse win. FOR ONCE...and let him have ODDS!...lol
CtC
I agree with your view on both Sinister Minister and Bellamy Road.
Even though the old Keeneland often produced very fast races by speed horses that were not duplicated, the track was very honest the day SM blew them out. It was a once in the lifetime giant effort.
The same can not be said of the day Bellamy Road won the Wood. BR ran fast, but not as well as he ran fast. ;-)
First,is Curlin for real? Yes,but not for the derby. Second,he\'s going to be pounded in the pools. Third,we\'ll end up with all the money.
I see Curlin as a horse who made a dynamic debut and has moved gradually forward in his next two.
He\'s made gradual improvements on the figs (generally speaking, I haven\'t seen them all) as he successfully stretches out to two turns and then further to 1 1/8 miles, while also showing he can rate.
What we don\'t know is how he will respond to tougher internal fractions, classier horses, and the extra 1/4.
Right now I feel he\'s no value at 3-to-1 but I respect him. Anybody know what vetted wrong when he sold as a yearling?
\"What we don\'t know is how he (Curlin) will respond to tougher internal fractions, classier horses, and the extra 1/4.\"
I agree.
I tend to toss these lightly raced promising horses that haven\'t beaten anybody when they show up in the Derby. I think racing in a very tough and deep 20 horse field with a large noisy crowd exposes a lot of seasoning issues.
All that said, this does not look to be an especially tough group even though they are fairly consistent and there are a lot of horses with similar ability. If a horse like Curlin is ever going to get the job done, this might be the year.
I wouldn\'t take a short price, but I\'m not anxious to bet against him either.
Of the horses that figure to take some action, Hard Spun is my only trifecta toss right now.
Leaning toward Scat Daddy on top and wheeling him underneath. Still percolating though...
ILL,
Is your knock on Hard Spun because he skipped an intended prep or otherwise? HS and CQ are the only two that I think skipped a prep race they originally intended to go in.
Mike
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"What we don\'t know is how he (Curlin) will
> respond to tougher internal fractions, classier
> horses, and the extra 1/4.\"
>
> I agree.
>
> I tend to toss these lightly raced promising
> horses that haven\'t beaten anybody when they show
> up in the Derby. I think racing in a very tough
> and deep 20 horse field with a large noisy crowd
> exposes a lot of seasoning issues.
>
Air Forbes Won (1982), Private Terms (1988), and Indian Charlie (1998) are all good examples of what you are talking about. All three were heavily bet favorites that were wise bet againsts (although Indian Charlie did get a piece of the trifecta).
> All that said, this does not look to be an
> especially tough group even though they are fairly
> consistent and there are a lot of horses with
> similar ability. If a horse like Curlin is ever
> going to get the job done, this might be the year.
>
Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense have already run negative figures. Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday have already run zeros. Having 5 colts that have already run a zero or better is pretty impressive in April -- I think these horses would be strong candidates in most Derbies. What\'s more, with the exception of Curlin, none of these horses is a bounce candidate. In fact, I think all three of Pletcher\'s top horses are coming into the race with very nice patterns.
I suspect that the training community has taken a collective lesson from Zito\'s experience with Bellamy Road and Baffert\'s experience with Sinister Minister. Even if it has been true in the past that horses have generally not run new tops in the Derby, I would not be surprised to see some of the top contenders running new tops this year. As is evidenced by the discussion on this board, we are all in a new environment now. A lot of the top figure horses are coming into the race with patterns that suggest very strongly that a pair up is the worst they will do.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ILL,
>
> Is your knock on Hard Spun because he skipped an
> intended prep or otherwise? HS and CQ are the
> only two that I think skipped a prep race they
> originally intended to go in.
>
>
> Mike
I will use CQ underneath only. His deep closer running style will require many things to go right for him. I\'m not sold on the pedigree for 10 furlongs (his dam was a one-turn horse), and the 8-week layoff is less than ideal, even for a trainer who does great work off the bench. I think he\'s one of 6 or 7 who could win, but there are enough questions for me to downgrade him to underneath only.
Hard Spun, I believe will be best on turf or polytrack, and he is stepping up in class here and facing faster. I love Danzig, but I have to make this one beat me if the public bets him. A neat horse though...
Hard Spun closed at 13-1 in KDFW pool 3.
I\'m guessing that a decent chunk of that $ on him came from those loyalists that saw something special in the Lecompte and stayed on the bandwagon through the (successful?) experiment in the Southwest loss and through the non-traditional poly road to the derby. In the much larger derby day pools with much more public money, the loyalists would have a smaller impact and odds will be longer if my assumption is correct.
This is a Pa bred with excellent low profile connections that probably won\'t get the media attention deserved. His poly race was flawless but hasn\'t generated much hype. Considering they didn\'t let him run his race at Oaklawn, his last true dirt race was over 3 months ago; there\'s no telling where he is right now. Unless the race collapses as it sometimes does, he\'s likely to create his own racing luck with no worries about traffic & such.... Pino will have him effortlessy cruising in the right spot with his hand on the go switch assuming he doesn\'t get an awful starting post.
Not drinking the kool-aid yet, but this is one of the ones where the toteboard could dictate using as a key with no regrets.
fkach, you\'ll earn large respect points agreeing with me. :)
Seriously though, even Baffert said Pre Derby that Sinister laid his body down in that race. I heard it but had to bet the fastest horse anyway. It was a little bit of a buck the bounce flyer and I did not get as good of odds as I should have. Adding insult to injury I talked the horse up pretty good and ate a lot of crow. I still think it was a helluva Bluegrass.
Regarding Bellamy\'s Wood there were some very fast races on that card besides Road\'s 1.47 Wood.
Valiant Warrior Lost in the Fog ran on that card and ran his gutsey per usual game race.
The faster horses were Medalist, Forest Danger and Don Six. Medalist never ran again. Forest Danger was never effective again and Don Six never reached back to this good figures post Wood. (TGraph, check me upon that last statement.) Bottom line is that track was so fast and hard it used up some pretty good horses. Bellamy included, but his fast race was not a standout. In his race there were slipped saddles, cheap horses and horses off form. At least that has been my opinion. I\'d like to say I beat Bellamy Road and cashed, but I never did. My horse finished 3rd that Derby and although I had the Travers winner selected, I passed the Race. Hate to bet upon Pletcher. Anyone can do that.
I do believe the hard Aqueduct track contributed to Road\'s demise.
CtC
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree with your view on both Sinister Minister
> and Bellamy Road.
>
> Even though the old Keeneland often produced very
> fast races by speed horses that were not
> duplicated, the track was very honest the day SM
> blew them out. It was a once in the lifetime giant
> effort.
>
> The same can not be said of the day Bellamy Road
> won the Wood. BR ran fast, but not as well as he
> ran fast. ;-)
Scat Daddy has come back around and looks like the \"pattern of the week\" horse to me . I\'d be curious to know how close Street Sense got to his best figure last time , becouse he\'s another one - like \'Scat , that hung in there after big 2 yo efforts ...
It\'s not just the pattern with Scat Daddy. I went back and watched his races, and there are some very nice efforts in there. (I really didn\'t like him as a juvenile for some reason.)
Part of me still says Street Sense is gonna win by three lengths, but if Scat Daddy is 10-to-1 or more, I\'ll key him up and down in the tri and bet something to win on him.
excellent point - both have also fared well under a variety of circumstances and by their action have looked impressive visually + seemed to have really put it together . imo - joe got even comes to mind when thinking about healthy looking stride + pattern , he\'s a little slow right now , but that could change by days end . liquidity and reporting for duty round out my derby top 5 ...
Hard Spun has the best overall pattern and spacing.
Never regressed or moved too far forward.
Curlin #s lay over this field,but 3 races in 7 weeks might create a mortal attempt.
AGS/SS both look tough but one hoss is cursed,the other is running 4th time in a little over 2 months.
Soaring By is my Bud longshot to hit the board.
3 1/2 first out on 4th of July!,tops his only 2yr # by 1/2 point first asking as 3yr old(I\'m sheet educated),next is a pencil-out and last was just a tune-up.
Shuffle up and deal
Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday will run big time..............
Davidrex,
I would give you 10-1 on Soaring By even runnning in the Derby, let alone winning it.
Did you catch his race yesterday? Never picked up his feet much.
Jimbo...didn\'t realize he ran....I only use Browns\' w/no interruptions or interference from outside factors.
Will go to video re-runs next week and will scan for the next Tarzan amongst the group...and what a big group it is!!
I use CalRacing.com for all but Churchill assoc....then I must make a wager thru brisbet bsfore they let me use their \"restroom\".
Anything else out there that doesn\'t incorporate \"pay toilets\"?(how bout that phrase Marcus!)
Unfortunately Jimbo, we are dealing with \"Maximum Trainer\" and his ego. He has brought a number off off pace horses to the Derby this year and will probably run Deadly Dealer since that one just picked up 100,000 in the Arkansas Derby for finishing 3rd in a 1 million dollar race. Deadly Dealer has as much chance as Keyed Entry. If Soaring By has the earnings he will be in. We are talking about Maximum Trainer and his Maximum Vet. I don\'t think he\'s got the earnings though.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Davidrex,
>
> I would give you 10-1 on Soaring By even runnning
> in the Derby, let alone winning it.
>
> Did you catch his race yesterday? Never picked up
> his feet much.
Chuckles,
Agree on the ego, but i am suspecting that since this is Dogwood stable, Cot Campbell and others will have input on that decision. He (campbell) said on TV before the awful race that even if he won, he was unlikely to go to the Derby (although he admitted he MIGHT get Derby fever).
Let\'s hope that a perfect trip, middle of the pack finish, against inferior horses, is not a recipe for Derby fever. There are other live longshots to at least fill out the superfecta, who are down the bottom of the earnings list.
davidrex , thats a good one - you must ride a \"honda\" ... i like that free-wheelin\' approach , w/o too many distractions etc ( why mess with success ) . noticing how few of the derby contenders bounced at 2yo that have run a better number than #2 at anytime in their career , you like ( hard spun w/ ) the forgers pattern - any thoughts on this ...
Hard Spuns pattern looks good, but he has been stuck for 3-4 races in a row, that bothers me a little. Scat Daddy looks awful tough, his last two at 1 1/8 look like a good launching pad, and the spacing is ideal.
RICH , i personally agree and seeing mixed signs with hard spuns 1/2 pt top last time , the forgers pattern could start going OX . joe got even\'s pattern reminds me a little bit of hard spun right now . imo - AGS\'s pattern seems healthy enough but like hard spun , hasn\'t improved more than 2 pts in his last 4 races , maybe it\'s coming . sd & ss look similar except one got back and the other is still working on it ... i\'m uneasy about any of the derby field winning off of top efforts - even if it\'s in character with previously established form ...
Due to his handlers, Hard Spun has not been allowed to run his race on dirt since the Lecomte score in January. His two preps since do not give me any evidence of development or lack of development.
This quote by Jones after the poly race is a bit troubling:
\"He seems to like Polytrack and Keeneland is almost like home,\" Jones said. \"We definitely want one more prep.\"
So what happened?
The key figure for me is the mile split in 1:36. If my horse is poised to fire at this stage, I\'ll stand a great chance.
Would be nice too see TG to start adding a line on trainers stats for poly to dirt in the same fashion we have had info on turf to dirt. Street Sense moved way up in BC while other horses regressed.
We hope to have synthetic stats on the page next week. We\'ll just have \"other to turf\" and vica-versa for now.