Another race where the favorites are vunerable.
Forbidden Apple 2-1, a total throwout, at the weights the slowest horse in the race. The 7yr has shown that the 3.5 is where he stays at best, that makes him slow in this race. major underlay.
Del Mar Show 5/2, has steady progressed over the years, ran his 3.75 tops early last year, stoppped in June, ran back to his top first time out at 5. Went to Dubai and returned to run a new 2pt top last out (1.5) thats a big # that should have consequences. At the weights I am much more inclined to bet he backs up, which puts him out of it. underlay.
Baptize 8-1, interesting still developing 4yr old, moved 5pts at 3yr off his 2yr top. Did not develop past June of last yr. The bear outs and -op may have meant something. He broke thru 2nd start at 4, as all young horses should do. Was layed up again, this horse may have some issues, been training at saratoga awhile (bond), but prado gets off, if he can repeat he can be there. Chance for exotics.
Naverink 6-1, explosive line, 1-2 pts slower then the rest. Excuse the 1st out at 4, notice the comment \"hind shoes removed in paddock\", then ran 1/4 off his 3yr top last out. Notice the sire line, 43 turf stake winners 5yr and up, more development is coming (3+pts between 3-4yr), he wants the 1 1/8, the dam throws turf runners too. Prado stays on. A 2pt move wins the race, he\'s my key.
Good luck
I was just going to comment on the race and I saw the same thing on Baptize. (I must be learning)
However, the other horse I am interested in is No Slip. He ran a 4.75 at the end of his 3 yo year and only needed two starts to break through that at 4, running a winning race and a 3.5 early in the year. He has been on the bench since, has more room for development per the TGI sire index and is trained by Frankel, which can\'t be a bad thing.:)
I will key Baptize and No Slip in the pick 4\'s and dutch them in the win pool if the prices dictate.
What do the experts think?
I like navesink as well ,I also feel the faves are shaky in the 9th I\'ll take a shot with the 7 in the 9th .I also like Rienstedlers horse in the 4th today .I really appreciate the posts recently i\'m very intrigued by handicappers opinions as related to sheets, thanks T.K.
8 out of 9 races were won by the top 3 favs at SAR. that day.....ouch.
Then again 67% of all races are won by one of the top 3 favs in a race.