Zanjero - interesting long shot (tho odds won\'t be too long with Gomez staying). \'5.5\' top last year, nice move forward last. perfect timing. one hole. ready for a move into zero range?
Dominican - i liked him a lot last. nice top as a 2 yr old, matched it last with a bit of trouble around the turn. great jock. nice post. probably my pick again at long odds.
Street Sense - just a very fast horse. got beat by GH last year over the poly, but ran faster. ready for his best tho? does he deserve to be a huge favorite over poly? most likely winner, low odds the issue.
Time Squared - should get much better with time. needs time. might have him on a few tickets underneath tho.
Teuf - not for me.
Great Hunter - no knocks. nice \'2.5\' top last year in the BC. first \'07 figure wasn\'t too impressive, but you know this race and the next have been the target. ground loss? only seven horses, but even two or three wide might prove costly here.
thoughts? if the odds on Street Sense get too low, i might take a shot with Dominican.
imo - Zanjero at 8-1 doesn\'t look too bad and Dominican either at 20-1 +up , wonder what odds they\'ll be in the exacta pool . I\'d toss Street Sense and Great Hunter from the tri altogether no problem - except I can\'t figure who else for third ...
Couldn\'t go through with it - was just doing my keeneland online/contest pics for saturday and had to go with Street Sense ...
marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Couldn\'t go through with it - was just doing my
> keeneland online/contest pics for saturday and had
> to go with Street Sense ...
can\'t blame you marcus. if this were on dirt, i would just watch it. he could even bury them on poly, but i\'ve seen strange things happen over those recycled fibers.
great Kee card tomorrow.
Michael D. - It\'s a was tricky call + w/ SS , imo - another off effort , a pair or new top could do it Blus Grass and at the same time - sets the horse up nicely for a serious run at the triple crown . That surface is a big X factor and surprises are definately not out of the question saturday , but the BG day card looks chalky to me for the most part ...
There is only one way to play this race...IF YOU PLAY THE RACE AT ALL.
Dominican may present the only value in the race. Last race was very good, seems to love Poly. There are 3 filler horses in the race. The Kee Rail seems dead, so that compromises Zanjero (the only other horse with an outside chance).
Street Sense or Great Hunter will be way too short.
The wetter the track gets, the faster they will run....and speed holds better. (My Opinion of course)
Bet the Pick 4 instead (NTRA)
NC Tony
Fully mindful his best Tfig is in the 5 range, for my money Teuflesberg with the \"Can\'t get out of her own way trainer\" is the horse to make it pay. He can\'t win, but he could get second if one of the top two stubs his toe and figures to be right there for third.
This is a race you probably need to call a straight tri upon.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Zanjero - interesting long shot (tho odds won\'t be
> too long with Gomez staying). \'5.5\' top last year,
> nice move forward last. perfect timing. one hole.
> ready for a move into zero range?
>
> Dominican - i liked him a lot last. nice top as a
> 3 yr old, matched it last with a bit of trouble
> around the turn. great jock. nice post. probably
> my pick again at long odds.
>
> Street Sense - just a very fast horse. got beat by
> GH last year over the poly, but ran faster. ready
> for his best tho? does he deserve to be a huge
> favorite over poly? most likely winner, low odds
> the issue.
>
> Time Squared - should get much better with time.
> needs time. might have him on a few tickets
> underneath tho.
>
> Teuf - not for me.
>
> Great Hunter - no knocks. nice \'2.5\' top last year
> in the BC. first \'07 figure wasn\'t too impressive,
> but you know this race and the next have been the
> target. ground loss? only seven horses, but even
> two or three wide might prove costly here.
>
> thoughts? if the odds on Street Sense get too low,
> i might take a shot with Dominican.
Michael, Congrats on your selction of Dominican.
If I prepped one of my horses in that race, I would be a bit upset right now. They walked for about 6F and then ran for about 3F. There wasn\'t much speed in the race, but a lot of that pace had to do with everyone choking back because of the tendency of Poly to be so rough on speed.
How anyone can think a race like that can be a good prep for the Derby is beyond me.
IMO, there isn\'t a single trainer from that race that has any idea where his horse really is right now as far as running 10F on dirt goes and how much he did or did not get out of that Poly boat race!
It\'s going to take some good horsemanship to figure out how to prepare a horse to deal with what will certainly be a tougher dirt pace in the Derby when you have no idea where he is coming out of what was essentially a 5F-6F gallop and 3F-4F hard work.
thanks fk. I agree with your points. this race has little to do with the Ky Derby ...
Jerry,
how the hell are you going to put a figure on this race? probably going to have to adjust it for pace?
I don\'t see how he can.
Probably will give the race a BOX.
The last race on the card had very interesting fractions also.
Personally I think the track went to powder.
To my eye there were three horses that really impressed. One took from the race precisely what he wanted. The other two ran deceptively well.
I\'d love to see those two in the Derby. It wasn\'t nearly as slow as some think.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t see how he can.
>
> Probably will give the race a BOX.
\"The last race on the card had very interesting fractions also.\"
\"It wasn\'t nearly as slow as some think.\"
I wouldn\'t be so sure it was the track. I think it may have been that the jocks were making a major riding adjustment to the track.
all the races except for one (and another was an about distance) were slow early, very fast late. the early/late distortion on this card is as extreme as it gets. we are looking at sub :12 final 1/8ths and approx :06 final 1/16ths all day long, after :24, :25, and :26 opening quarters (:23.5 for a grade 2 sprint).
how bad was the wind? were all the jocks instructed to hold up their mounts because closers win on poly?
horses were exploding home over that surface, could it have been that slow?
if it was wind, were the 9f races (including the Blue Grass) even SLOWER than we think?
those were quality colts running in the big one .....................
I very much doubt a box will be necessary. Give or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.
By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what by any measure is a slow race. Were any of you guys watching the Arkansas Derby?
It\'s typical poly-insanity,put a line thru the race.Looked like a workout with a last half sprint.The whole field was unimpressive and as Mike D pointed out the last race runners outran the BG field the last eighth 11.37 to 11.51.
Mike
Polytrack is forcing the jockeys to think again and become better jocks vs the gun and hang on group.................
NC Tony
Michael ...I was there, there was no serious wind to be an issue. In fact I was sitting with a prominent trainer and there was no discussion about wind....I was in the saddling ring for the race before, and that horse (Silent Name) won wire to wire for the most part.
The BG had only 1 early pace horse and had the best or second best jockey who knows how to rate a horse on him instead of the other BOZO\'s before him. Prado did everything he could to win the race nd he almost pulled it off.
NC Tony
Mike
I think you non poly guys better get with it soon.
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael ...I was there, there was no serious wind
> to be an issue. In fact I was sitting with a
> prominent trainer.....I was in the saddeling ring
> for the race before, and that horse won wire to
> wire for the most part.
>
> The BG had only 1 early pace horse and had the
> best or second best jockey who knows how to rate a
> orse on him instead of the other BOZO\'s before
> him. Prado did everything he could to win the race
> nd he almost pulled it off.
>
> NC Tony
Tony, thanks a lot for the info ...
Prado did a great job on a rather weak colt, but Raf was best today. I\'m beginning to think he\'s top three. Hope you nailed the winner, I know you liked him.
Michael D
I had him Large and the exacta Larger!!!!!!
NC Tony
Obviously Curlin is going to be a tough horse to deal with. At least he ran on real ground and we know his effort was legit. It looked fast too.
To my eye Street Sense ran the same Poly race at Keeneland he ran last time. Losing should enable him to be a square price if you like him.
Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I very much doubt a box will be necessary. Give
> or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues
> his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes
> back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg
> pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.
>
> By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what
> by any measure is a slow race. Were any of you
> guys watching the Arkansas Derby?
The circumstances just don\'t add up to a slow race. They also dont add up to a lethargic pace. The strange surface clearly played a role, but the winner closed into the pace and the place horse too. There were four horses on the line, they weren\'t all there because the pace was lethargic.
Most of the day off the pace horses faired well, unless they were odds on speed types. Very wide from far back was not a bad place to be either.
Come next race, the horses that ran on the pace are going to be decent bets and Teuflesberg ran significantly better than a 4 or 5.
All in all, there were some decent horses in the Bluegrass, but Miff is probably right. Put a line through the race it was a very strange result.
The next one is getting more and more interesting.
Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I very much doubt a box will be necessary. Give
> or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues
> his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes
> back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg
> pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.
>
> By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what
> by any measure is a slow race. Were any of you
> guys watching the Arkansas Derby?
CTC: If you think that Teuflesberg ran \"significantly better\" than a 4 or a 5 (let\'s say at least 2 points better), then you must think that a) the winner went forward at least 2 points, b) SS ran no worse than a zero, and perhaps paired his negative 2, c) Zanjero and Great Hunter no worse than paired their tops, and perhaps also ran new tops, and d) -- and here\'s the kicker -- Time Squared, who has one of the worst-looking lines of any horse to run the Blue Grass in recent history, went forward at least 4 points. Doesn\'t all that seem statistically improbable to you?
Caro,
I\'m aware of your critique. You\'re saying that many horses can\'t improve to a 3 or thereabouts. I am approaching this race the way Beyer does. On that surface at that track I don\'t think there was any negative to being wide from off the pace. Fully believing in factoring wide, there was a minimal wide factor at Keeneland on Bluegrass Day. You don\'t have to be a statistician to see that.
Lets Extrapolate:
Starting with the winner. A horse with a forging pattern coming off his first top matching race as a three year old. This horse benefitted from off the pace and he in all likelihood moved forward off the forge. He did win. I give him credit for a 2.5 or thereabouts.
Street Sense. To my eye he did not relish Poly the first time he saw it and he did not relish it yesterday. He was closer to the pace and ducking in about three times finished gamely. He was not his best and his finishes with a number like the winner in my book.
Zanjero. He was compromised by being inside in the lane in my opinion, but he did benefit from earlier lane placement. He was on a forge too if you score him on a 2.5 that forge ends, but the early wide helped him. {Later, he wasn\'t wide, but he did get near the rail late and he galloped out poorly from down in there.)
Teuflesberg....He gets a 3, but it was the best 3 ever awarded by a TFig counterfeiter. And on that track he may have run the best race. There was no theft on pace. Look at the last race on the card. The track became talcum powder. The race prior to the Bluegrass was so swift, (If properly timed), they may have not watered. Love to hear from Tgraph when the Beer truck made its rounds. I don\'t think hes a Derby Horse, but this is not a bad animal. He\'ll beat all of these but Street Sense next start, but that start should not be Churchill.
Great Hunter....Score him a 3 to a 3.5 or so.
Times Squared...that would bring him in at about a 4 or so. This is a million dollar horse that clearly had not run yet. If he returned to his top of an 8 that means the winners got home in about 6.5
Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC: If you think that Teuflesberg ran
> \"significantly better\" than a 4 or a 5 (let\'s say
> at least 2 points better), then you must think
> that a) the winner went forward at least 2 points,
> b) SS ran no worse than a zero, and perhaps paired
> his negative 2, c) Zanjero and Great Hunter no
> worse than paired their tops, and perhaps also ran
> new tops, and d) -- and here\'s the kicker -- Time
> Squared, who has one of the worst-looking lines of
> any horse to run the Blue Grass in recent history,
> went forward at least 4 points. Doesn\'t all that
> seem statistically improbable to you?
Yeah Tony,
1.16 in graded races that\'s real racing!! It\'s pathetic.
Mike
Miff, it was clearly faster than that. Did you see the way Teuflesberg was striding out?....He galloped out with them too. Dominican galloped out slightly better, but I\'m of the opinion he will be hard pressed to look as good next time.
The number of horses that don\'t fit the profile is large. Many coming in on monumental layoffs. Others without either race or distance seasoning or both. The 2YO champ coming in having apparently stubbed his toe. Pletcher coming in with half the field. I\'m assumming he\'ll run Deadly Dealer if the earnings are there. (They may not be).
Barry now has the Prohibitive Favorite in King of the Roxy. All he needs now is the Moxy.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah Tony,
>
> 1.16 in graded races that\'s real racing!! It\'s
> pathetic.
>
>
> Mike
Chuck,
All they\'ve accomplished with Poly-quack is to give horses that like running on top of grass another surface.Don\'t what you mean by \"clearly faster than that\" 1.16.3 is 1.16.3. I see horse work faster than that every day.
Mike
The Blue Grass makes crystal clear what has already been apparent. Polytrack racing is virtually turf racing by another name. This country does not need more turf racing.
Keeneland has simply reversed the bias. Is a closers bias any better than a speed bias?
And above all, polytrack is no friend of the horseplayer.
I\'ll agree to defer to Tgraph if they wish to post an opinion. The track was very quirky. It was slow, extremely fast, extremely slow. I don\'t think any routing speed horse could have cracked 1.15 by the Bluegrass.
I do agree Poly is a horse \"equalizer\" it takes horses of vastly different ability and almost levels the playing field. I\'ve noticed Pletcher with his speed appears to be avoiding it.
Remember the Lane\'s End winner last year?
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> All they\'ve accomplished with Poly-quack is to
> give horses that like running on top of grass
> another surface.Don\'t what you mean by \"clearly
> faster than that\" 1.16.3 is 1.16.3. I see horse
> work faster than that every day.
>
>
> Mike
Chuck,
Common sense, just look where the very slow early Zanjero was laying the entire race. That alone tells you the pace was pedestrian.How the fig will be scored is another issue.
Mike
Zanjero is an interesting case study. I\'m sure you realize he was taken over by Asmussen for this year and the Bluegrass was his third start. Appearing to have been less than stellar out of the gate, he laid down a 1.12 in training. I thnk the fractions on that track were legit.
i\'m also of your opinion that for the Derby it is best to put a line through the race. Factor it never happened.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Common sense, just look where the very slow early
> Zanjero was laying the entire race. That alone
> tells you the pace was pedestrian.How the fig will
> be scored is another issue.
>
> Mike
Chuck: I\'m not saying horses can\'t improve by 3 points; I\'m saying it\'s unlikely that all these horses ran as well as you think, given their past histories and simple probabilities.
It appears you are approaching the race as Beyer does because you are treating relative ground loss as irrelevant. In your view, the first three finishers all get the same figure, even though their trips were vastly different. Whatever their numbers, SS\'s figure has to be about 2 points better than Zanjero\'s.
Michael-- I\'m sure I\'m going to have to adjust the BG for pace. And probably many other poly races-- they aren\'t just like grass races, they are like European grass races.
The industry leaped before they looked...
\"Michael-- I\'m sure I\'m going to have to adjust the BG for pace. And probably many other poly races-- they aren\'t just like grass races, they are like European grass races.\"
The industry leaped before they looked...
AMEN,JB!!
Mike
And Michael, in the interets of fairness-- no sooner did I shoot my mouth off than Asmussen started getting some big forward moves.
On the BG-- haven\'t seen ground or the day as a whole, but seems to me that Teuflesberg and Dominican had similar tops going in, good place to start.
Jerry,
I\'m sure you haven\'t had time to look at the Bluegrass closely yet, but there were other routes on that card without the ultra pedestrian early fractions. Do you really think the last two races can be explained upon every horse being throttled until the stretch?
Do you think the homestretch was quicker than other parts of the track? Heck, from my perspective the entire track is different from one section to the next. I\'ve not been a big Poly follower but this card\'s outcomes were patently ridiculous.
What was the name of that horse that won the Poly Lane\'s End last year? He was offered for immediate syndication, ran like poop in his next start and died shortly thereafter. You may be able to predict similarly for the Bluegrass winner.
Wide was not an impediment on that surface. It\'s going to be an interesting Figure, but I\'m with Miff, throw the race out and handicap the Derby upon the basis that the Bluegrass was never run. If you want to back those from the Bluegrass besides Street Sense you\'ll get good odds. You will probably need them.
I\'m doubly sick of Poly now.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- I\'m sure I\'m going to have to adjust the
> BG for pace. And probably many other poly races--
> they aren\'t just like grass races, they are like
> European grass races.
>
> The industry leaped before they looked...
You\'re entitled to Bet Aqueduct all winter too.
Now thats what I call racing.....
NC Tony
CTC-- the idea behind the \"slow pace\" designation is that sometimes the pace is so slow the final time is affected-- you see it happen often in grass races here, and on a regular basis in Europe. What happens is that they go so slow that they simply can\'t make up the lost time-- they can\'t run 20 second quarters or 40 second halves. TG, Time-Form, Beyer, and Ragozin all adjust our figures when that happens, though we have different ways of doing it (Ragozin evidently has some kind of formula, according to Friedman, while the rest of us go by the horses).
Tony,
Not talking about the quality of the horses, talking about the surface. Kee has the best horses by far right now and the worse surface to try to figure them.The inner at NY is one of the easier surfaces to gauge, the horses are awful.
Mike
Jerry, I appreciate the accuracy of the response, but I\'m not a complete novice upon this. Are you saying that had they run a legitimate pace race they could have run say a 1.50?
On the basis of the 8th race I\'d speculate that they could have. The fractions of that race were:
23.57
46.59
1.09.57
1.21.26
Which means the winner ran the last eighth in 11.79, which is quick.
But I\'m not sure you answered my question, other perhaps than to dismiss it with a detailed \"Turf Pace\" explanation. Is that what you believe, or in other words have you ruled out track conditions changing to a degree that one rarely if ever sees?
You make Poly figures all the time. I rarely if ever study them. Last year there was no need to look at the Lanes End. This year, the figures have to be thoroughly considered or completely dismissed. Was it all pace?
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC-- the idea behind the \"slow pace\" designation
> is that sometimes the pace is so slow the final
> time is affected-- you see it happen often in
> grass races here, and on a regular basis in
> Europe. What happens is that they go so slow that
> they simply can\'t make up the lost time-- they
> can\'t run 20 second quarters or 40 second halves.
> TG, Time-Form, Beyer, and Ragozin all adjust our
> figures when that happens, though we have
> different ways of doing it (Ragozin evidently has
> some kind of formula, according to Friedman, while
> the rest of us go by the horses).
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- I\'m sure I\'m going to have to adjust the
> BG for pace. And probably many other poly races--
> they aren\'t just like grass races, they are like
> European grass races.
that\'s why I love em Jerry.
seriously, I do like the experiments at WO, TP, Kee, and Hol. those were four awful dirt tracks. if we had the old Kee configuration on Sat, that would have been one ugly mud fest, with Teuf running off by ten.
four is plenty tho. AP and the rest of Cal is going too far. we are talking about changing the breed here, what\'s the hurry?
I always thought handicapping was all about adapting.
Those who play best always adapt. This is not to say that you don\'t, i just don\'t understand the big deal being made of this. It\'s liKe playing the poker hand you are dealt to win. and as you\'ve said before, you have choices so you don\'t have to play.
Although the way tracks are changing surfaces, you might want to learn it now vis a vis later.
Tony
Tony, Poly is only a trend and is already on its way out. Thats inside information.
Don\'t get me wrong. I think Poly is a wonderful tool for Cheney betting. FYI Cheney betting is where you shotgun a few beers and then shotgun all the long odds horses in a race. The chances of such a horse winning are increased upon poly. The Bluegrass and a few others on the card are evidence of that. But I certainly already knew that.
TGraphs purpose and my style is to find a truly advantaged horse that is predominate over his contemporaries. I don\'t want track quirks to take away from that insight and I\'m certain TGraph doesnt either.
I did read that you liked Dominican, so congrats. That four horse on the line finish had to be thrill with Dominican using ever inch of the bias and erratic footing by Street Sense to put a nose on him. It certainly was indicative of the \"Shotgun Principle\". Winning is winning, but aiming with a rifle is going to be much more enjoyable in the long term. Think hes a Derby horse? :)
Nevertheless congrats...Good luck on the Lexington. I\'m not going to bet it but will be very eager to see if you raise the Beretta.
P.S. Maybe you deduced that a good closer with a shot is the way to wager Poly. If so, you\'re not the only one. That said, it should be pretty clear to you that the fact that Dominican got up tends to indicate the pace of the race was legit. Then again, maybe your 12 guage had him winning by daylight on a \"fair\" pace.
>23.57 46.59 1.09.57 1.21.26<
23.57 and 46.59 is obviously crawling early when the horses run 109.57 etc... after that.
Based on a few of your posts, I believe you are confusing track speed with jockey strategy. The paces tend to be slow on Poly because the jockeys have figured out that if they run real racehorse time early they have no chance of winning.
You can\'t look at all the paces and say \"well they were all slow so the track must have been playing slow early and fast late because of wind or the track being fast in some spots and slow in others\".
While that is theoretically possible, that\'s not what\'s happening at KEE. It\'s obvious because it happens quite consistently at KEE and to a lesser degree on all the other Poly tracks too. The jockeys are riding like it\'s a European turf race because it\'s the best way to give their horse a chance of winning (especially going long).
Ctc,
Was no shotgun approach to it. (I chugged a couple of Kentucky Bourbons, not beer BTW). Backstretch noise said Great Hunter was not himself. Leaving only two runners. Even with Prado up, you had to hope and think that TBerg had distance limitations.
As for speed figs being a panacea to find those hidden gems, everybody has a figures someplace (BRIS,BEYER,RAG,TG,and others) The hidden figure is much harder to come by in the modern era of racing, (ie even Jerry will tell you that). Good figure ovelays are pounded at the windows making them underlays more often than not.
I don\'t handicap the Derby until the field is set and PP\'s are known.
Tony
Fkach,
As to what you said in a round about way. In app 163 races run at Kee since poly was installed, only 3% were wires(excluding short baby races) There is a penalty for any horse with brilliant early speed at Kee and the jocks(as you said) know it.
Mike
Don\'t know why all the concern over the fractions and final times in
yesterday\'s Blue Grass. As Pat Day said repeatedly, \"Time only matters if you
are in prison.\" I guess if you are interested in brilliantly fast times you will
have to go watch quarterhorses--or a 2YO in training sale.
I watched the BG yesterday without wagering. Actually a great race, a great
finish, with the top 3 all fully extended at the wire. Zanjero appeared to have
the lead for a brief instant. The top 3 showed the kind of gameness a racing fan
loves to see.
If I fancied the 2YO champ in the Derby, I saw nothing in yesterday\'s 1/2 mile
poly workout that would discourage me. He is a hard trying colt with a competent
handler and a big win (bias aided or not) at CD.
After the race, my immediate thought was that Hard Spun probably could have won
this race, on the lead, against the polyester bias. The plans for this colt seem
to change each day, but if HS tanks in the Derby, owner Porter might second
guess himself and say, \"Gee, I could have won the Blue Grass and the Preakness.\"
Poly track will prove not to be a panacea; as I have said in the past it is only
dressing for a wound caused by a lack of competent trainers, a lack of competent
track superintendents, and a gene pool which has been stretched like a rubber
band.
If you read Crist\'s editorial in DRF, nobody is really interested in
resurrecting Racing, in NY or anywhere else. Our future as racing fans is
probably in our living rooms, watching races from the 10 or 15 racetracks which
survive in the US (optimistic view) plus racing from European and Asian venues.
Ironic that in 15 years, 2 old time racing fans will be playing VLTs at a
facility which used to host live Racing, saying that the spread of synthetic
surfaces killed Racing. This will not be the case of course. Poly just happened
to come along at a time when the Greeders, the Cheaters and the corrupt and
apathetic politicians had already begun to lower the coffin into the grave.
Bottom line-- no cogent future planning for Racing = no Racing in the future.
Those vouching for a turf effect could certainly be right. I conducted a three month experiment with Poly and did not like the results and haven\'t bet upon it for a year. Figuring that Hard Spun was a standout I bet him on it and the race was very formful.
I took a shot at the Bluegrass knowing full well Street Sense was not going to be fully cranked. Wagered a couple of small trifectas and lost, but thats not the root of my disgust. The surface itself is capricious. Absolutely fickle.
If you think the fractions of the sprint were pedestrian that is completely in keeping with my belief that the backside was a far different track from the home stretch. Additionally, its my belief that the backside went to powder the last two races and nothing will dissuade me with the exception of Jerry saying \"No it did not\". I don\'t think he can say that.
Having cashed on one sure thing and having lost on another sure thing, I\'m ready to dispense with Poly forever. Its just not going to be formful. If others want to bet it fine. Pick the Lexington. This ought to be interesting.
Lastly didn\'t both Great Hunter and Notional go down running on this crap?
Craps anyone?
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >23.57 46.59 1.09.57 1.21.26<
>
> 23.57 and 46.59 is obviously crawling early when
> the horses run 109.57 etc... after that.
>
> Based on a few of your posts, I believe you are
> confusing track speed with jockey strategy. The
> paces tend to be slow on Poly because the jockeys
> have figured out that if they run real racehorse
> time early they have no chance of winning.
>
> You can\'t look at all the paces and say \"well they
> were all slow so the track must have been playing
> slow early and fast late because of wind or the
> track being fast in some spots and slow in
> others\".
>
> While that is theoretically possible, that\'s not
> what\'s happening at KEE. It\'s obvious because it
> happens quite consistently at KEE and to a lesser
> degree on all the other Poly tracks too. The
> jockeys are riding like it\'s a European turf race
> because it\'s the best way to give their horse a
> chance of winning (especially going long).
Ctc,
Isn\'t Notional and Great Hunter trained by the infamous \"DRUG\" O\'Neill?
NCT
Chuckles,
I completely disagree with you regarding Dominican\'s reason for getting
up to win.It had nothing to do with legitimate pace and everyone who thinks
so hasn\'t a clue.
Richie,
I loved what you said early about speed and so on and so forth.You also told
me something when you said 3 horses extended at the wire going for it.It reminded
me that horse racing isn\'t about cashing a bet,being right or eating a bad
hot dog.It\'s a daggone athletic endeavor.It\'s about pushing ourselves as athletes
to be the best and love what we do.What I tell people who have never been to the races is forget about wagering,eat before you go,and go right down to the rail
at the 1/8 pole and just focus on horses and riders as they pass.As the old Mick
said\"It\'s a thing a beauty\".Then and only then,after the appreciation can they
decide to go wagering.
....and his horses, at least on the TC trail are falling apart
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Lastly didn\'t both Great Hunter and Notional go
> down running on this crap?
>
> Craps anyone?
Is Great Hunter injured?
Notional, Liquidity and Great Hunter all O\'Neill.Just a few weeks back, there was all this ink about a Pletcher and O\'Neill Derby. Now it looks like both are in trouble especially O\'Neill after Great Hunter did not run to his poly from and Liquidity tired badly in the SA Derby.
No more pathetic than Gr 1 horses staggering home the final quarter in 26 plus in same dirt races.
Bob
Miff:
Alot of trainers wish they were in the \"trouble\" Pletcher is in, with Circular
Quay,Any Given Saturday,Scat Daddy and Cowtown Cat headed into the Derby. In
addition, 5 of the 23 fillies in the pool for the Ky Oaks future wager are from
team TAP.
Still in all a great betting race, projecting the lightly raced Curlin as a 4/1
favorite, with many horses who have a legitimate shot in at odds between 6/1 -
20/1.
Will be interested to see if Michael D and NC Tony stick with Blue Grass winner
Dominican as he returns to the dirt. He has certainly taken to synthetic, but
it also must be remembered that he was gelded before his victory in the Rushaway
and that may be as significant a factor as the surface switch.Dominican will be
seeking his first dirt win in the Derby by Yums!, and whether you love Poly,
hate Poly or are on the fence, you have to admit that the synthetic prep races
only add to the intrigue (and difficulty) of picking a Derby winner.
Bee,
You would be surprised at the lack of joy Pletcher-ville.The top two prospects,CQ and AGS have time off and tired issues to deal with.Cowtown(not that fast but improving) is a pleasant surprise but will be in deeper than ever before on Derby Day.Looks like SC is now their best shot and he was third on the depth chart in Feb.
Two months ago there was talk of 7 TAP entrants with a shot, I think he now has 1.
Mike
nice call on that Blue Grass . though - i personally seriously doubt whether in this case , the surface was the Big Determing factor .
obviously , traction problems etc on poly have been part of the game and i did not see the race but it\'s beginning to sound like the racing surface is being attributed as a major factor in determining the result .
maybe SS will take a couple to get back ( to his old top - or run a new top ) , sometimes they do - the good or better pattern ones seem to ( and i\'m not refering horses off long lay offs or those like that zito horse in the Bel Stks recently ) ... but SS will probably be too short as a win bet in the Derby anyway ...