Hard to follow an incendiary CtC post, but after all it is Derby time...
I\'ve been following Notional a bit since his Risen Star win at the FG. In that
race he sat professionally in and amongst horses, making a nifty move while
Circular Quay raced behind a bad traffic jam, eventually having to alter course
to avoid a fallen rival.
I will have to watch his Florida Derby a few times more. Jockey Albarado said
Notional finished with good energy, but one of the DRF boys (Watchmaker or
Privman) said they felt that Notional was hanging in the late stages.
Positives and Negatives:
Human Connections: Doug O. doing well shipping all over the globe for big
races, like Pletcher will win a Derby or two eventually. Jockey Albarado has not
been a factor in money races, but the plus side here is that this will increase the odds.
Breeding: Notional\'s sire In Excess had a very memorable 4YO campaign, winning
4 major NY stakes: Suburban (10f), Woodward (9f), Whitney (9f) and the Met Mile
(8f), in addition to the San Fernando (9f). In Excess\' son, Indian Charlie, ran
third in the Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby. The average winning
distance of In Excess\' winning runners, however, is less than 6.5 furlongs.
Interestingly, IE\'s second highest earner this year behind Notional is Turf
Paradise SW Staten Island, who I will assume is named for the place of my birth
and current residence (and not for the island located near Antarctica).
Odds: In excess of 20/1?
The last time I took a strong liking to a California horse was in 1980, when
Rumbo\'s late run was not enough to catch Genuine Risk. That was a memorable
year-- I attended the Derby live as the guest of a college pal whose dad was
a bloodstock agent. I was introduced to one of Nelson Bunker Hunt\'s daughters
that day, and had the boozy nerve to ask her how hard it was to shop for
presents for her dad, at the time one of the world\'s wealthiest men.
Her reply, delivered with an absolutely straight face-- \"Daddy loves McDonald\'s
gift certificates\".
Richiebee
If Curlin wins on Saturday Albarado probably sticks with him.Great Hunter drifted in the stretch of the RB Lewis.I\'m interested to see what kind of race he runs in the Bluegrass.If its a poor effort-Nakatani could end up back on Notional.Liquidity and Cobalt Blue look like non-factors.
Notional could be my key horse on May 5.I think his Fla Derby was an improvement over his 2.75 Risen Star,but maybe not back to his 0 maiden breaker at 6f in October.Maybe something like a 1.5?
He already had enough earnings after his Risen Star win Feb 10th(put him up over 200k)to get him a spot in Louisville.
O\'neill brings him to South Florida with 7 weeks in between races.He\'s obviously a #\'s trainer(tg or rag?)
What is his intent heading into the Fla Derby?
Is the seven week gap so he can have him at his best for the million dollar Fla Derby pot? Or is it being used as a maintenance race to get him to the ultimate goal?
Lets assume he didn\'t get back to his zero top,and O\'neill is training him to peak on Derby Day.Can Notional run his best race at the distance? That\'s the question I\'m struggling with.
Great anecdote about the infamous Hunt. Considering the 1980 derby was shortly after Silver Thursday (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday), his daughter\'s response makes total sense.