Some are saying the Wood wasn\'t a good prep, but comparing the times to the handicap race for older horses later on, the Wood doesn\'t seem slow at all. One would expect the older horses to go faster, but it doesn\'t seem they went that much faster. Anyone have an idea what T-G number Magna Graduate got and what number NoBiz got (and more importantly what are par numbers for those races)?
Wood: 23.28, 23.98, 23.76, 25.12, 12.44 (1:49.46)
Older
Stakes: 23.78, 22.22, 23.38, 24.96, 12.70 (1:48.10)
NoBiz looked very healthy to me and very stout like he\'s coming up to the triple crown in a good way. He certainly didn\'t look to have spent himself at all in the Wood either. Anyone have any thoughts on this???
Dana666 Wrote:
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> Some are saying the Wood wasn\'t a good prep, but
> comparing the times to the handicap race for older
> horses later on, the Wood doesn\'t seem slow at
> all. One would expect the older horses to go
> faster, but it doesn\'t seem they went that much
> faster. Anyone have an idea what T-G number Magna
> Graduate got and what number NoBiz got (and more
> importantly what are par numbers for those
> races)?
>
> Wood: 23.28, 23.98, 23.76, 25.12, 12.44 (1:49.46)
>
> Older
> Stakes: 23.78, 22.22, 23.38, 24.96, 12.70
> (1:48.10)
>
> NoBiz looked very healthy to me and very stout
> like he\'s coming up to the triple crown in a good
> way. He certainly didn\'t look to have spent
> himself at all in the Wood either. Anyone have any
> thoughts on this???
Dana, nobiz ran the final furlong five lengths slower than you think he did.
No Biz Like Shobiz ran the final three furlongs in 38.56 seconds, with the final furlong of 13.44 in there. Plus, Magna Graduate won under wraps under the wire. Don\'t get me wrong, No Biz Like Shobiz is a nice horse but once he figures it out professionally, he will be a force to wreckon with. If you watch his Remsen and Holy Bull, he ran the same way lugging out and goofing around into the stretch looking around, while pulling away. In the Wood Memorial, he did not goof around in the stretch but was sharp early with blinkers and rank. Once he figures out how to relax and not goof around in the stretch, he could be a great horse with an explosive acceleration. If he figures that out in time for the derby, I could not tell you.
mchmura44 Wrote:
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> Once he figures out how to
> relax and not goof around in the stretch, he could
> be a great horse with an explosive acceleration.
> If he figures that out in time for the derby, I
> could not tell you.
bingo.
i think most are going to guess he doesn\'t figure it out in time, and the odds will be generous.
If the folks that run Hard Spun pass-up the Derby,isn\'t that stupid? I think the Wood produces the winner at a great price..........Any Given Saturday
Nobiz 98 Beyer
Tiago 100 Beyer
AGS bore out badly through the stretch. IMO, he has distance limitations at this point in his career. He was passed by SIGHTSEEING who is no more than an allowance horse right now. Contrary to popular belief, I think Shugs is doing the right thing skipping the Derby with a still immature 3 yo.
As for NOBIZ...he\'s NOBetter than he was in the Remsen.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
AGS had his tank drained. This is the formula that\'s worked for many horses that have produce much better odds than you would expect. Did he bounce off 3 weeks? In 4 weeks,he\'ll be kicking the stall down. I still like Hard Spun........
NoBiz gets out a path going into the first turn in all of his route races.He did it again on Saturday even with the blinkers.Riders need to be aware of him in a 20 horse field at CD.If you\'re outside him and in close quarters look out.
I didn\'t see the head on of the stretch,but the DRF charts had no notation of drifting by AGS.Unless they got it wrong,he just ran out of gas.Three wide around chasing a hotter pace than he\'s seen in a race prior will do that.The TB race probably took something out of him also.
Great Hunter drifted in the stretch in the RB Lewis.Something to keep an eye on in the BlueGrass.
Pletcher has pulled this act before, run a big #, bounce, run back in ok in derby, must keep a close eye on AGS in the next 4 weeks, plenty of time to get it right.
No Biz got home in app 13.44.In his defense, he was attending the early action up front from the beginning while being wrangled early on.On the other side, he really has not broken thru from his 2 yr old races.His body may big just too big for his youth right now. In a 20 horse field he will need to trip out and improve to win, imo.I think this horse will run better from 5-6 lenghts off the pace.
About 5 horses look kinda even now and unless Street Sense does something big on Saturday, it looks like another 5-1 favorite.
Mike
I would caution that AGS was rushed back in three weeks off a tough race at Tampa (his plans were altered from the BG to the Wood)Horses recover differently but that was one tired horse laying in his head check after the Wood SAT.Since I\'m big on visuals, I\'ll put a fork in AGS for the derby unless he trains back spectacularly.
The Derby swagger of the TAP group seems to be diminished a bit.Angel and Johnny V. not committing which horse to ride.
Mike
AGS was going into the Wood on a bit of a Monarchos program.
I would be careful to base too much on what you saw on Sat and more on what you saw at Tampa.
Particularly if you think Street Sense is the horse too beat.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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>Particularly if you think Street Sense is the
> horse too beat.
I do indeed think Street Sense is the OBVIOUS horse to beat. He beat GH, CQ and Stormello by 10 under wraps at Churchill. He outgamed AGS in Tampa and probably wasn\'t even fully cranked.
With so many variables, numbers and \"what ifs\" heading into this year\'s 20-horse NASCAR Derby, I\'m going with the proven goods as well as the fastest horse and keying SS ON TOP in the Derby and in the Oaks Derby Double. I would think 5-2 is a gift on this monster. If he runs poorly on poly this weekend, ALL THE BETTER. Following that scenario, I might even get 5-1 on Cinco De Mayo...
Silver,
It was never Pletchers intention to:
1.Skip the Wood and train CQ up to the derby until that horse \"told\" him,about 8-10 days out, that he could not handle the Wood and then the Derby.
2.Run back AGS on three weeks rest after the tough Tampa stretch duel with SS.The audible for AGS was called as a direct result of CQ defecting.Pletcher also said that he thought that AGS only ran the last quarter in Tampa and did not think AGS was a tired horse from that effort. At the 1/16 pole in the Wood AGS tried hard but tired badly late(his last eighth in 14.20)
Major changes to the schedule leading up to the Derby are almost always a negative.Since you are a fan of AGS(as are others) let me say that there is disappointment in the Pletcher camp about AGS\'s performance on Sat. His wide trip is only a small excuse.Of course he\'ll get credit for being wide in his fig, but no penalty for being perfectly placed off 3 horses mixing it up and coming up empty late.Depending on how Jerry saw the Wood, AGS might be sitting on an 0 2 X for the derby(not that I believe in that pattern all the time)
Since many people go off the last performance of a horse, you will get bonus odds as they hop off AGS\'s banwagon.My last tidbit, in early February I asked someone on the TAP team who they liked the most for the derby, answer \"AGS may be any kind\"
Good Luck,
Mike
Miff wrote
>until that horse \"told\" him,about 8-10 days out, that he could not handle the Wood and then the Derby.
If Pletcher is hearing his horses talking to him now then he is sniffing the same stuff his horses are getting.
Circular Quay is a very small horse who tries very hard when he runs. Conducive to knockout efforts in my opinion. I like the eights weeks rest.
>Major changes to the schedule leading up to the Derby are almost always a negative.
Few trainers have had as many Derby horses as Pletcher. Audibles are understandable in this case.
>AGS might be sitting on an 0 2 X for the derby(not that I believe in that pattern all the time)
See attached Sheet for Monarchos.
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby2001.pdf
At 10-1 or more on Derby day AGS is a play.
Silver,
I liked the Thunder Gulch TG pattern better.Regarding CQ being knocked out because he\'s small, size is irrelevant. Big or small doesn\'t play any part in recuping, they\'re all different in that regard.Good luck with AGS @10-1.
Mike
I like AGS at a price also. His Tampa race was unquestionably one of the best preps this spring and he seemed to be heading in the right direction. You just have to forgive the Wood performance to give him a big shot. Some people will excuse it because he came back so quickly off a big race. I\'m more apt to excuse it because of the sudden change of plans. TP was aiming for the Bluegrass. So I would assume the training was geared for that race. Then he turned around at the last minute and ran one week earlier. I can\'t believe that kind of thing maximizes the chances of getting a high level performance.
I want to see what Street Sense does this week. If he bombs also, I might have some second thoughts about the quality of the Tampa race. But right now, I\'m expecting a very good race from SS Saturday and I plan on using AGS in the Derby.
Fkach,
What\'s your criteria for Street Sense bombing in the BG? Last year he jumped up 7 1/2 pts in the BC off his 3rd place finish at Kee, running a # that looks good enough to win again in 25 days. So if he runs, say, a 6 on the poly this week, and for a trainer known for pointing, is that bombing?
On a side note, it\'s pretty well known that a BC juve champ has never won the derby, but who was the last derby winner that actually raced in the juve BC? I have no clue.
Sea Hero 92??
Street Sense probably ran a 1 or so in his first race back. he should be getting back to that -2 now or get very close to it. Is it possible to run a -2 on a polytrack?
I\'m expecting him to either win or run a game second in decent time. Anything less than that and he better have an excuse.
The interesting fact in this thread is that TGJB didn\'t get involved. I haven\'t reviewed the Wood card yet, but on raw times the Excelsior looks significantly faster to me.
Nobiz beat Sightseeing, who looks a pass for the Derby and it wasn\'t easy. Any Given Saturday is not a bad horse, but trip and regression look to have been factors. (Will leave it to TGraph on the Regression Call.) Taggs good one fought the presumptive Derby Favorite to a game finish in an earlier Wood. Does anyone really think NoBiz\'s Wood compares to Funny Cide\'s?
CtC
Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Some are saying the Wood wasn\'t a good prep, but
> comparing the times to the handicap race for older
> horses later on, the Wood doesn\'t seem slow at
> all. One would expect the older horses to go
> faster, but it doesn\'t seem they went that much
> faster. Anyone have an idea what T-G number Magna
> Graduate got and what number NoBiz got (and more
> importantly what are par numbers for those
> races)?
>
> Wood: 23.28, 23.98, 23.76, 25.12, 12.44 (1:49.46)
>
> Older
> Stakes: 23.78, 22.22, 23.38, 24.96, 12.70
> (1:48.10)
>
> NoBiz looked very healthy to me and very stout
> like he\'s coming up to the triple crown in a good
> way. He certainly didn\'t look to have spent
> himself at all in the Wood either. Anyone have any
> thoughts on this???
Maybe a more relevant question is \"How Many Juvenile Winners have run in the Derby?\"
1985 Chief\'s Crown - 3rd
1987 Capote - 16th
1991 Fly So Free - 5th
1992 Arazi - 8th
1994 Brocco - 4th
1995 Timber Country - 3rd
1996 Unbridleds Song - 5th
1998 Favorite Trick - 8th
1999 Answer Lively - 10th
2000 Anees - 13th
2002 Johannesburg - 8th
2004 Action This Day - 6th
2005 Wilko - 6th
2-Thirds
1-Fourth,and
2-Fifths
Not all bad for 13 Derby starters. Heck, I\'m pretty sure Pletcher has at least that many starters in the Derby and may have that many this year. Clearly he is no Ben Jones and just as obviously to win you first have to get into the gate.
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> Fkach,
>
> What\'s your criteria for Street Sense bombing in
> the BG? Last year he jumped up 7 1/2 pts in the BC
> off his 3rd place finish at Kee, running a # that
> looks good enough to win again in 25 days. So if
> he runs, say, a 6 on the poly this week, and for a
> trainer known for pointing, is that bombing?
>
> On a side note, it\'s pretty well known that a BC
> juve champ has never won the derby, but who was
> the last derby winner that actually raced in the
> juve BC? I have no clue.