To: Team Valor\'s Barry Irwin:
Is your KING OF THE ROXY this year\'s version of Todd Pletcher/White Mercedes\' KEYED ENTRY?
Last year, after KEYED ENTRY ran a spectacular -1 ThoroGraph orgasm in the 2006 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream, beating FIRST SAMURAI, he was stretched out in the Gotham six weeks later and finished a good second there. He \"bounced\" for sure, yet he hung remarkably tough, bouncing just a mere two points, running a 1.
KING OF THE ROXY ran his -1 orgasm by winning the 2007 Hutcheson. Stretched out in Saturday\'s Santa Anita Derby, he too hung tough to finish a terrific second. Running a great race, running wide, did he also run a 1? Let\'s see how Jerry rated it.
My two cents is that KING OF THE ROXY is KEYED ENTRY. To see your future, see KEYED ENTRY\'s ThoroGraph sheet from Saturday\'s Carter at Aqueduct, and note that in the world of the Pletcher/White Mercedes barn, everything is trumped by steroids and how your horse\'s constitution handles the injections. Will the -1 orgasm KING OF THE ROXY had in the Hutcheson ultimately prove to be his finest hour?
Time heals. If the Preakness is next, best of luck there. Your move. Buy low, sell high.
JTC
Kudos John,
Love that post.
JohnTChance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To: Team Valor\'s Barry Irwin:
>
> Is your KING OF THE ROXY this year\'s version of
> Todd Pletcher/White Mercedes\' KEYED ENTRY?
>
> Last year, after KEYED ENTRY ran a spectacular -1
> ThoroGraph orgasm in the 2006 Hutcheson Stakes at
> Gulfstream, beating FIRST SAMURAI, he was
> stretched out in the Gotham six weeks later and
> finished a good second there. He \"bounced\" for
> sure, yet he hung remarkably tough, bouncing just
> a mere two points, running a 1.
>
> KING OF THE ROXY ran his -1 orgasm by winning the
> 2007 Hutcheson. Stretched out in Saturday\'s Santa
> Anita Derby, he too hung tough to finish a
> terrific second. Running a great race, running
> wide, did he also run a 1? Let\'s see how Jerry
> rated it.
>
> My two cents is that KING OF THE ROXY is KEYED
> ENTRY. To see your future, see KEYED ENTRY\'s
> ThoroGraph sheet from Saturday\'s Carter at
> Aqueduct, and note that in the world of the
> Pletcher/White Mercedes barn, everything is
> trumped by steroids and how your horse\'s
> constitution handles the injections. Will the -1
> orgasm KING OF THE ROXY had in the Hutcheson
> ultimately prove to be his finest hour?
>
> Time heals. If the Preakness is next, best of luck
> there. Your move. Buy low, sell high.
>
> JTC
I indulged you by checking out the information on Keyed Entry and I fail to see the comparison.
There are a few differences that are key, such as what these two horses did as 2-year-olds and what styles they use in their races. Also, to what distances these horses stretched out.
Whilst I appreciate the advice, I figure it is worth just what you valued it at--2 cents.
I wouldn\'t normally act like such a jerk to a complete stranger, but you asked for it with your absurdly naive comments about steroids and injections.
And one more thing: there is more to managing a horse than speed figures. These animals are made of flesh and blood. They have different constitutions and different psyches. These little tidbits, which also separate one human being from another, cannot be found on a Sheet.
The figures and numbers have their place, but they are but one part of the puzzle. This is why nobody that relies on numbers ever consistently runs a successful stable.
It would be like only running horses when a horse\'s blood chemistry numbers all fit a certain pattern.
Or, abroad, like only betting horses when their body weights conform to a certain poundage.
There are a lot of variables that go into this game.
I am sure that if I relied strictly on numbers, I would think like you. I value the input of speed figures. But I do not rely on them solely.
But thanks anyway...
And if you really want to help me out, my e mail address is valorific@aol.com
But if you e-mail me, you will not be able to spout off on the Board and make yourself look smart.
Barry, you shouldn\'t have bothered. \"JohnTChance\" thinks everyone is on the juice---it explains his losing bets.
If TV relied on sheets alone, they might not have purchased this one privately right from the get go.
I have to believe this one was a \'video\' purchase, seeing this guy climbing into the dirt as a FTS off a \'glowing\' workout report from National Turf, his first lifetime start was \'better than the line looked\'.
Maybe Barry would be kind enough to tell us what he saw early on that led to him purchase this fine racehorse.
The story I read was that Team Valor loved his maiden win at Hollywood, especially how he exploded thru the turn.King has shown a wicked run in all sprints and just got late in the SA Derby at the 1/16 pole trying every step.
Depending on how the horse comes out of the race, they have a tough call but I think if they were going to take a shot,it might be the Preakness.While the SA Derby came up weak, Roxy did the most running of all of them.
Mike
Barry-- and we were getting along so well...
\"That\'s why nobody that ever relies on numbers ever consistently runs a successful stable\".
In the interest of harmony I\'ll give you a chance to modify that statement before I reply to it.
On this particular forum, opinions stem from numbers and number analysis. It seems that, though \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these days, changing the way horses are perceived, and even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\" in his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that redefined the perception of his performance. Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry Jones defended his colt by referring reporters to the good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs, HARD SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well, not poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one more time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much upon the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding, but as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s tangible sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off layoffs.
The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING OF THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr. old, what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run a -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that improvement has not been the norm, and whoever manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by that magnificent early effort.
I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression about pharmacology as it relates to performance is ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful of your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill a while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" - I can twist the argument and throw it right back at you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by steroids and injections? They run these -1 ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah. Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.
JTC
It sounds to me like Barry uses the TG figures, but doesn\'t limit his thinking about his horses to the numbers alone. If I am correct, I think he looks at every horse as an indvidual and every figure in light of how it was earned. So I guess the decision about KOTR will be based on what KOTR is telling him and not what Keyed Entry\'s pattern looked like last year.
Hi Barry:
I appreciate you taking the time to answer these posts, especially as they are not short on vitriol, and to some degree, paranoia. But it\'s really no secret that TAP\'s horses are on a steroid regimen. This is not illegal, so there is nothing to cover up. The larger issue is whether he is using other things, which are not legal. A lot of intelligent, knowledgable people think that he is.
What is your opinion?
I can\'t imagine that Barry is going to come on here and say, \"pletcher is a cheater\". Or, will he?
I guess you have to compare Pletcher to Barry Bonds in some ways. Bonds never had a positive steroid test to my knowledge, but everything else points to him being a user.
Ask yourself this about Pletcher and Bonds. Can a trainer be so much better than everyone else that he can run a completely honest operation and dominate trainers who are good who cheat? Lotsa top 10 guys are \'gaining edges\' in many ways, some legal some illegal so to believe that Pletcher and Bonds are just far superior to their competition on \'oats and hay\' has to be looked at closely.
Sure, there\'s no proof of any wrong doing......ask yourself this.
If The Pletchers and Bonds of the world are doing this au natural, why would anyone use banned substances to gain an edge when they obviously don\'t work all that well? If there are a few trainers in the top 10 in the nation who are cheating and Pletcher is running a hay and oats operation and dominating them, it must mean that drugs aren\'t all that effective.
With so much performance enhancing stuff around, can we believe with with every fiber of our hearts that a trainer or a baseball player who dominate their sport like no other can be dominating trainers and other baseball players who are \'users\' while remaining as clean as snow white themselves?
Anyone have 64 grand?
I see now why Barry Nomad Irwing excoriated you. Team Valor made the plunge upon that questionable specimen of a horse. He thinks he may better the last place Derby finish of Keyed Entry. The only good horse this outfit ever bought was Captain Bodgit.
Later, They get credit for Prized too, but they screwed up changing trainers on him.
You can\'t live in the past. Its amazing that they have a business going. Maybe they dont. Maybe thats the root of the ridiculous response.
Once again, great post John, I think you said volumes about the Pletcher methodology. What Team Valor needs is thirdly a better horse, secondly, a better trainer and most importantly better decision making as to the two preceding issues.
He\'s a candidate for last in the Derby, last 1/4 of the field in the Preakness.
CHICKENS!
Barry, you need someone to review pedigree and conformation. Badly. I can help. Thats a statement of fact. It\'s not easy and I\'m not cheap. I\'ll even prove it. You provide me with the documents upon your top ten prospective Derby intended purchases next year and I\'ll pick the one that produces the most...gratis. After that, when you want my imput again, you\'ll pay dearly for it.
John is right. Sell that hay burner.
CtC
JohnTChance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On this particular forum, opinions stem from
> numbers and number analysis. It seems that, though
> \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers
> ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these
> days, changing the way horses are perceived, and
> even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\" in
> his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that
> redefined the perception of his performance.
> Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the
> Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry Jones
> defended his colt by referring reporters to the
> good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs, HARD
> SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well, not
> poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the
> schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one more
> time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much upon
> the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding, but
> as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s tangible
> sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off
> layoffs.
>
> The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms
> early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m
> thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to
> LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING OF
> THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr. old,
> what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do
> you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run a
> -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that
> improvement has not been the norm, and whoever
> manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by that
> magnificent early effort.
>
> I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression about
> pharmacology as it relates to performance is
> ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful of
> your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill a
> while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s
> the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" - I
> can twist the argument and throw it right back at
> you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that
> Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by
> steroids and injections? They run these -1
> ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given
> development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah.
> Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.
>
> JTC
So here\'s the thing that has me scratching my head. For a long time, Mr. Irwin has been an outspoken opponent of performance-enhancing drugs in horseracing. Check out this op-ed from 2002, in which he writes," Are there knowledgeable horsemen who believe that high-profile trainers with outrageously high win percentages might be using EPO? Yes, and I am among them":
http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=8879
And another, in which he writes, "A policy of hay, oats, and water would place everybody on a level playing field": http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=16735
Did Mr. Irwin go over to the dark side – or does he truly believe that Todd Pletcher is the best trainer in the history of the game? Because let's face it, none of the great conditioners – Whittingham, Jerkins, Ben Jones, etc. – ever approached the amazing winning percentages of super-trainers like TAP.
Just my take.
Given the scuttlebutt, it was amusing to discover on the front page of this trainer\'s own website a sizable advertisement for a medicament.
I mean, I\'ve been to dozens of trainers websites and I don\'t recall adverts for drugs on their front pages. Just thought it was funny.
Lance:
Your take is very valid, but as in any other sport, it is difficult to compare
the great ones of days past against the present stars.
Even without discussing performance enhancing methods, trainers like Pletcher
and Dutrow and to a lesser extent Tom Amoss (who also maintains a gaudy win
percentage) train huge public stables. The greats of the past who you mentioned
--Jerkens, Ben Jones, Whittingham-- usually never had more than 50 or so head
stabled at the track at any one time; Pletcher maintains the D Wayne Lukas model
stable with 150- 200 horses of various ability racing on many fronts and for
the most part actually being trained by competent assistants.
Ben Jones and Allen Jerkens spent large parts of their illustrious careers
training private stables, not cherry picking the creme de la creme from high
priced auction purchases. Ben Jones had to take some crooked legged Calumet
runners along with the champions; Allen Jerkens did the same for Hobeau Farms
and Bohemia Stables.
Pletcher will retire one day with probably the greatest training record ever
amassed (and yes it is inevitable that he will eventually win BC and Triple
Crown races) but probably will never be recognized as a horseman in the league
of Jerkens, Woody Stephens, Whittingham, King Leatherbury, Laz Barrera and Ben
Jones (sorry P-Dub if I\'m unbalanced East to West). These guys are all part
horse, while TAP has more of the qualities of a Fortune 500 CEO. If TAP is
indeed a great horseman, he will never get credit for it.
Also agree about Barry Irwin. Any man who says that drugs are the scourge of
Racing but then eulogizes Doc Harthill in the BloodHorse is undergoing inner
conflict. Doc Harthill could have gone down as the greatest equine vet of all
time, but instead used his talents to tilt the playing field as severely as
possible. My memory of Doc Alex Harthill--womanizer, race fixer, master
chemist,and despite all that, the one man you want to show up if your horse was
in a bad way in the middle of the night.
Great post, Richie. Thanks for sharing your insight. Your points are very well taken.
Winning percentages aside, I still find it uncanny how Pletcher horses seem to re-break in the lane so often; it\'s like they suddenly find a second wind. I remember repeatedly witnessing the same thing with Frankel horses a few years back (Medaglia D\'Oro in the San Felipe comes to mind first), but his current runners don\'t seem to display this tendency nearly as much as they used to. Upon reflection, I realize that what I\'m probably seeing with the typical Pletcher horse isn\'t an animal \"re-breaking,\" but rather one who is still running evenly when others are backing up. As Mr. Irwin so eloquently stated in his 2002 editorial, \"Darbepoetin and EPO do not make a horse run faster, but allow a horse to delay going into oxygen debt and decelerate at a slower rate.\"
Re. the upcoming Derby: I know that Kentucky has -- or at least had -- a reputation for liberal medication policies, but I\'m wondering if perhaps they (and other tracks) haven\'t figured something out in regards to surveillance on the biggest race days. Is there a reason Pletcher and Frankel are 0-fer in the Derby and a combined 6 for 90 in the Breeders Cup, despite saddling an inordinate number of short-priced steeds? Are there more barn-security/surveillance measures in place for the Derby than there are for your average Saturday race card?
Just questions running through my head...
Lance wrote:
\"Re. the upcoming Derby: I know that Kentucky has -- or at least had -- a reputation for liberal medication policies, but I\'m wondering if perhaps they (and other tracks) haven\'t figured something out in regards to surveillance on the biggest race days. Is there a reason Pletcher and Frankel are 0-fer in the Derby and a combined 6 for 90 in the Breeders Cup, despite saddling an inordinate number of short-priced steeds? Are there more barn-security/surveillance measures in place for the Derby than there are for your average Saturday race card?\"
Lance, the answer is no, but the conspiracy idiots wll tell you differently. there was something that the BC was not going to test for shakes or something and people got upset.Shakes alone are probably one of the more meaningless paranoias around the game, there\'s much better illegal stuff. Don\'t know all that much about Frankel but he seems to race them when they are ready and spaces horse real well. Does he use drugs, no one knows.
In the case of Pletcher,it has to be a illegal drug conspiracy involving many staff, assistants and vets.His stable is spread across the country and he does NOT micro manage.You would think that a disgruntled employee would blow the whistle,no? I wonder if he wins at app 25% because of the following:
He learned from one of the most accomplished trainers in history D. Wayne.
His owners spend millions each year to replenish stock and he arguably has the most diversified and talented barn, year after year.
Angel sits on most in the am(advising) and Johnny V and Garret Gomez ride in the afternoon.
He gets horse like Lawyer Ron sent to him.
As far as rebreaking, it\'s in your mind from getting beat by his horses.Blood dope and designer super pain drugs are out there and if he using them he must be a poor horseman to only win at 25%. Give that barn to Tricky, he\'ll win at 50%.
Mike
Mike: Thanks for the reply. Good points about TAP\'s barn. I\'ve an open mind about the whole thing -- but I also have open eyes, and the rebreaking thing isn\'t merely in my mind. I\'ve been watching horses run for far too long. When a horse is being scrubbed on at the quarter pole and looks like he\'s finished, but somehow he keeps finding more -- well, that just looks fishy to me.. Sure, some horses need to be ridden like bicycles a long way out. Great Communicator was like that. But Pletcher has an inordinate amount of runners who demonstrate this quality: they\'re done, and then they\'re not.
Barry , Just when my migraine was going away ... I almost went w/ KOTR in pool#2 except i didn\'t like the 2 yo pattern ( 02X and all ) or price . i draw the line at 80-1 in futures - though it doesn\'t always happen that way however and 50-1 to 60-1 sometimes gets the flyer ... good luck and keep running \'King if he\'s well , imo - his #\'s might just hang in there ...
Miff,
Your response should be required reading for all the poor suffering b..tards that hang out on this forum. WELL DONE
Miff: A while back, I asked, \"Is there a reason Pletcher and Frankel are 0-fer in the Derby and a combined 6 for 90 in the Breeders Cup, despite saddling an inordinate number of short-priced steeds? Are there more barn-security/surveillance measures in place for the Derby than there are for your average Saturday race card?\"
You stated that \"the answer is no.\" Do you still believe this? Do you still believe that my observations about Pletcher horses rebreaking is just \"in [my] mind\"?
The reason I\'m revisiting this is because of something Jerry posted today: \"buried somewhere in the coverage of the Derby was a story about 24/7 surveillance of the horses. That could have been a factor.\"
I\'m curious if his words, coupled with the dismal performances (again) of the Pletcher horses, have you wondering if the so-called \"conspiracy idiots\" might be onto something.
Lance:
As one conspiracy theorist to another, I will say you are asking some good
questions. But maybe one more needs to be asked: If we suspect trainers such as
Frankel, Dutrow and Pletcher of having an advantage, and that advantage is
neutralized by more stringent testing and surveillance on big race days such as
the Derby and BC, why aren\'t more of the testing and surveillance regimens
utilized on a day-to-day basis at all tracks?
1) Because these trainers with large stables have too much influence over
Racing,and the powers that be are afraid of offending them?
2) Because there is no unity among Racing jurisdictions. If Delaware Park for
example adopted strict testing, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey did not, there
would be a mass exodus to the north, and no track wants to be in that position.
I think it is important to note that many thought that Detention Barns were
going to level the playing field, but I think if you look at the trainer
standings, especially in NY and California, you will see that the balance of
power has not shifted.
Lets lay down some conspiracy framework.
I know Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I\'m certain of it, but then I took the time to read the Warren Commission Report.
Its clear that New York City was not attacked by our own government on 9-11. Its equally clear that government was negligent in allowing it to happen and criminal in misrepresenting it to America.
I can\'t think of any other consipiracies, because my mind doesn\'t work that way.
On the other hand, Todd Pletcher is using drugs to cheat and if it wasn\'t for Steve Allday and his \"titrations\" (Which I believe are a combination to increase red blood cells and reduce latic acid) Todd Pletcher would be just another trainer that might have to wait two or five years to get back in the Derby instead of proclaiming, (As he did Saturday), \"I\'ll be back with a dozen next year\". He may be back, but I believe more thorough and more accurate blood tests await him.
The real shame is that outfits like Team Valor that should know better stoop to embrace him and owners that only know their millions don\'t have a clue he is cheating.
Lance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff: A while back, I asked, \"Is there a reason
> Pletcher and Frankel are 0-fer in the Derby and a
> combined 6 for 90 in the Breeders Cup, despite
> saddling an inordinate number of short-priced
> steeds? Are there more barn-security/surveillance
> measures in place for the Derby than there are for
> your average Saturday race card?\"
>
> You stated that \"the answer is no.\" Do you still
> believe this? Do you still believe that my
> observations about Pletcher horses rebreaking is
> just \"in mind\"?
>
> The reason I\'m revisiting this is because of
> something Jerry posted today: \"buried somewhere in
> the coverage of the Derby was a story about 24/7
> surveillance of the horses. That could have been a
> factor.\"
>
> I\'m curious if his words, coupled with the dismal
> performances (again) of the Pletcher horses, have
> you wondering if the so-called \"conspiracy idiots\"
> might be onto something.
This is not a defense of the mentioned trainers. It\'s a statement about the analysis one should do related to these kinds of stats.
One of the things that allows Pletcher and Frankel to generate such high win percentages is that they spot their horses where they can win by shipping around the country and avoiding tough spots. That\'s a skill that gets totally neutralized for races like the Derby and BC. Those races are automatically MUCH TOUGHER spots than the races that those guys tend to avoid during the year unless they have \"the horse\" they believe will win. So it\'s virtually a 100% certainty that their win percentage will fall sharply for the Derby and BC relative to the rest of the season. Once your win percentage falls enough, bad streaks of various types are more likely and could mean nothing.
Again, I\'m not defending them. I\'m just pointing out a reality about the evidence.
Lance,
The conspiracy idiots are alive and well. Pletcher only drugged Rags to Riches, thats why she won,the rest of them he could not drug, thats why they lost.
Incidentally, why don\'t you or anyone else list the names of the horses that re-broke and won,running move up type TG figs, I missed those performances.
Mike
Miff,
Rags to Riches laid over that field. Pletcher was not very good Friday or Saturday. I am willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt but this is getting ridiculous. He starts out every year with 70-80 of the best 2 year olds in the country and gets five to the Derby. I feel that there are a number of knowledgable people who post here and many of them treat Pletcher as an automatic throw out in big races. How is this possible? When it is over none of them \"handled\" the track.
As far as \"spotting\" horses, Pletcher has won the training title at the most competetive meet in the world six out of the last seven years. This has nothing to do with \"spotting\" horses. He has to take his horses alkl over the country beacause he has so many stakes class horses and does not want to run his ownwers against each other, if possible.
\"Pletcher only drugged Rags to Riches, thats why she won,the rest of them he could not drug, thats why they lost.\"
Come on, Miff -- you know it\'s not that easy. Rags is a 2-million dollar filly with impeccable bloodlines, a monstrous stride, and the build of a colt; she\'s a phenomenal talent.
As for horses rebreaking, check out Sam P in the Lewis Stakes earlier this year; the horse looked like he was absolutely finished when Great Hunter swooped past him, and then he found another gear and was coming again at the wire.
And rather than point out move-up figs, I\'d be interested to look at move-DOWN figs. I\'m guessing that most Pletcher horses run much higher figs on Derby day and BC day. Take this year. Circular Quay, higher, Any Given Saturday, probably higher (he did lose a ton of ground, so I can\'t say for sure). Scat Daddy, higher. Cowtown Cat, higher. And that\'s not even mentioning TAP\'s 17 Breeders Cup runners in 2006, none of whom won. I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on this.
I guess we all interpret data differently and see things differently, and that\'s one of the fun things about parimutuel wagering. Take care.
Gowand,
RTR only laid over because she was drugged in all her previous races, you do not get it. TAP can only win when his horses are drugged,it doesn\'t matter what stock he has.
For what its worth,
I noted pre derby:History tells us that TAP runners do not come up big on the first sat in May and also:
ASG was a very tired horse after the Wood lieing in his head check after the race.
CQ ridiculous 8 week layoff was not by design and skipped the Wood due to lack of energy training up.
Sam P is not a horse
Scat Daddy was third string
Cowtown was not impossible
Out of the first five betting choices only one SC was third choice.What is it that the conspiracy guys see? I dont see it and the hundreds of thousands of people who gambled the race didn\'t see it either and certainly did not bet on it.
The idiot brigade is suggesting that the pre race test was known and the horses weren\'t drugged,BRILLIANT.Small problem the idiot brigade forgot that(Jerry noted) epo is not race day and is spoon fed overtime so when the test came TAP should have had 5 positives for all the stuff in their system pre-test day.
Mike
Lance,Lance,Lance,
ALL of TAP\'S derby runners were royally bred and expensive or worked their eyeballs out in a training sale, come on guy. The whole barn is basically that way and the guy ONLY wins @25% over the year. What is so special about that with stock like that?? You take care too, buddy.
Mike
Great questions, Richie. Thanks for sharing your insight. I still love this game, but damn.
And I miss Pinnacle too. Halcyon days indeed...
Miff
We all know(as you stated before the derby) that pletcher seems to come up empty on the first Saturday in May.(and the last saturday in October or whereabouts) The question is why. I guess I am an \"idiot\" in your eyes if I think this is going a bit beyond coincidence. Maybe there is nothing going on here but I don\'t think you can say someone is an idiot because they ask the question. I think it would be naive to think that there is no illegal drug use in racing. For years \"idiots\" like myself knew it was going on in professional sports and due mostly to financial concerns the respective sports ignored this. If you are willing to admit it goes on in racing then why would you not look at TAP\'s record with suspicion.
Gowand,
We are on very different pages. TAP\'s record is the reason why I think he\'s NOT using and if he is, it ain\'t working. Don\'t know how long you are playing the racing game but check out the Oscar like move ups of today and NONE of them are in TAPs runners lines.And yes, I believe that anyone who thinks that the pre derby EPO test is the reason why TAP\'s runners bombed is clueless about the game.From memory TAP had about 15 compettive horses run on Fri and Sat, he won two races. How come he did not win more, since he\'s this prolific drug trainer the conspiracy idiots say he is.
TAP has app 200 horses of very good overall quality. Do you think he should win one out of four? If not, why?. And to all, again, what are the names of the Oscar like move up runners of TAP. Left Bank was mentioned,freaky fast horse, died from illegal drugs according to the conspiracy idiots but yet LLoyds paid the insurance, makes sense.
Take a look at runners trained by, Dutrow, Levine,Amoss,K Ziadie,Mullins,Autrey,Lake to name a few.Compare the calibre of their stock to TAP\'s and the results achieved.I\'m aware they are claiming outfits tapping joints et al, but take a look and post. I already have most of the TG data.
The conspiracy idiots have been asked several times now, still no answer. Chuck, cat got your tongue or did they take you back to the asylum?
Mike
King Of The Roxy is a better horse imo than just one to play spoiler with and with his numbers , should probably get more time off - maybe even just track the horse for MTH or Sar / BC / Nad @ 4 yo / Retirement - although i don\'t know if he had an equipment change ...
Also fwiw , imo - KOTR , with his somewhat unhealthy pattern and all , and the fillie R2R - who looked in bad shape to me after leaving the Oaks winners circle , have good chances to break-up a TC if are % 110 right ...
Sure,
Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby;
King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita Derby.
That group just for starters.
What I\'d like to see now is a ThoroStats probability for all 5 of Pletchers horses going \"OFF\". Fastest finisher had to be in the 4 range no? What are the probabilities of 5 Pletcher horses going OFF in the same Grade I race?
I was factoring Pletchers drug moves pre Derby and stated even before the drug test that I thought he\'d get out trained. Once the test was revealed I got that spiritual feeling and bet with conviction that he would miss the board.
Was it mere luck? What is the probability?
No grassy knoll gunman here
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lance,
>
> The conspiracy idiots are alive and well. Pletcher
> only drugged Rags to Riches, thats why she won,the
> rest of them he could not drug, thats why they
> lost.
>
> Incidentally, why don\'t you or anyone else list
> the names of the horses that re-broke and
> won,running move up type TG figs, I missed those
> performances.
>
> Mike
miff Wrote:
>
> The idiot brigade is suggesting that the pre race
> test was known and the horses weren\'t
> drugged,BRILLIANT.Small problem the idiot brigade
> forgot that(Jerry noted) epo is not race day and
> is spoon fed overtime so when the test came TAP
> should have had 5 positives for all the stuff in
> their system pre-test day.
>
>
> Mike
Miffed, I\'ll tell you why I have credibility upon this issue. Pletchers horses did not only miss the board. I tossed them from it and cashed without them.
Now, regarding EPO, my last knowledge upon it was that they cannot even detect it. They can detect an antibody the animal produces once its admiminstered. That was a year ago, so the tests may be more precise now. This much I do know: A body will return to equilibrium and thus any use of EPO where red blood cells are artificially increased would have to be maintained. Its in the maintenance that such a test would be effective. The key to this inquiry is \"When did the stables know\" To this point no one has answered that question and I\'d be very cautious in asserting the \"drugs off\" people are crazy this time too. The ancillary issue regarding the test providing a chilling effect upon the trainers in regard to using other performance enhancers was stated by TGJB.
All the trainers I knew are gone now. I really don\'t have someone inside to ask the pertinent questions. I\'d think someone here would have that opportunity. But that question is in regard to when did the Derby Entry Stables know. It is not related to Pletcher being a performance enhancing drug abuser. He and his vet are a poverty upon this game and their day of reckoning may be upon them.
Choose this day whom ye shall serve
Chuck said these performances of TAP\'s runners were drug like move ups:
Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby;
King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita Derby.
Chuck,
You need to take your meds. I can\'t debate with someone who knows nothing about a drug induced performance from a visual or performance fig perspective.The examples you have cited confirm your overall lack of knowledge of the subject being discussed.
Mike
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It sounds to me like Barry uses the TG figures,
> but doesn\'t limit his thinking about his horses to
> the numbers alone. If I am correct, I think he
> looks at every horse as an indvidual and every
> figure in light of how it was earned. So I guess
> the decision about KOTR will be based on what KOTR
> is telling him and not what Keyed Entry\'s pattern
> looked like last year.
Thank God somebody gets it. And thank you fkach.
I just got back from South Africa, so this is my first chance to see this thread.
Jerry, numbers are valuable and part of the puzzle, but only part.
I humbly submit to you that the use of numbers had a detrimental impact on the way some horses were trained up to the Derby and the results speak for themselves.
People that rely n numbers solely, whether for the placement of their horses or for gambling, cannot consistently win, because they do not supply all of the answers.
That was my point.
barry don\'t become a steve irwin, your horse is a 7f to a mile horse, he ran in a garbage race at santa and you got lucky, i\'m sure its good publicity for your syndicate but do what\'s right for the horse.
that horse is 3/5 to be off the board.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I see now why Barry Nomad Irwing excoriated you.
> Team Valor made the plunge upon that questionable
> specimen of a horse. He thinks he may better the
> last place Derby finish of Keyed Entry. The only
> good horse this outfit ever bought was Captain
> Bodgit.
>
> Later, They get credit for Prized too, but they
> screwed up changing trainers on him.
>
> You can\'t live in the past. Its amazing that they
> have a business going. Maybe they dont. Maybe
> thats the root of the ridiculous response.
>
> Once again, great post John, I think you said
> volumes about the Pletcher methodology. What Team
> Valor needs is thirdly a better horse, secondly, a
> better trainer and most importantly better
> decision making as to the two preceding issues.
>
> He\'s a candidate for last in the Derby, last 1/4
> of the field in the Preakness.
> CHICKENS!
>
> Barry, you need someone to review pedigree and
> conformation. Badly. I can help. Thats a statement
> of fact. It\'s not easy and I\'m not cheap. I\'ll
> even prove it. You provide me with the documents
> upon your top ten prospective Derby intended
> purchases next year and I\'ll pick the one that
> produces the most...gratis. After that, when you
> want my imput again, you\'ll pay dearly for it.
>
> John is right. Sell that hay burner.
>
> CtC
>
> JohnTChance Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > On this particular forum, opinions stem from
> > numbers and number analysis. It seems that,
> though
> > \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers
> > ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these
> > days, changing the way horses are perceived,
> and
> > even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\"
> in
> > his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that
> > redefined the perception of his performance.
> > Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the
> > Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry
> Jones
> > defended his colt by referring reporters to the
> > good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs,
> HARD
> > SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well,
> not
> > poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the
> > schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one
> more
> > time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much
> upon
> > the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding,
> but
> > as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s
> tangible
> > sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off
> > layoffs.
> >
> > The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms
> > early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m
> > thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to
> > LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING
> OF
> > THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr.
> old,
> > what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do
> > you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run
> a
> > -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that
> > improvement has not been the norm, and whoever
> > manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by
> that
> > magnificent early effort.
> >
> > I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression
> about
> > pharmacology as it relates to performance is
> > ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful
> of
> > your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill
> a
> > while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s
> > the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" -
> I
> > can twist the argument and throw it right back
> at
> > you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that
> > Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by
> > steroids and injections? They run these -1
> > ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given
> > development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah.
> > Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.
> >
> > JTC
Chuckles, first of all, how dare you use a handle from my favorite play \"A Thousand Clowns.\"
Secondly, nowhere in the history of the Turf do we read of Chuckles the Clown\'s impact in the major races on the calendar.
As for Prized, he was trained by Neil Drysdale the entire time I had anything to do with him. When he won the Breeders Cup Turf in the first grass race of his life, I won enough betting with bookies in England to buy a house.
I humbly submit to you that whatever you think you may have accomplished, that every single year we at Team Valor do more.
This year we have already had 6 stakes winners, 5 of which were bought by me as yearlings, including Fairbanks, who is one of the few high-priced yearlings in recent years to perform well on the track. His 115 Beyer (did I actually say BEYER! What an idiot I am!!!) is the best over a route of ground by any horse in the country this year.
Good luck with your fantasy stable, pal.
Miffed,
Last time we were here you had to elaborate upon your position. Are we really at a point now that theres a disagreement over what a \"rebreak\" is?
The videos of those preps are available at RaceReplays.com, Kentuckyderby.com and bloodhorse.com I\'d recommend close scrutiny of them in regard to the post race number assigned by TGraph.
Once again, I\'d ask the statistical probability of all 5 of Pletchers horses Off to xing on the first Saturday in May.
I\'d say I\'m arguing data and you are arguing angry.
lol
CtC
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said these performances of TAP\'s runners
> were drug like move ups:
>
>
> Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
> Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
> Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
> Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida
> Derby;
> King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita
> Derby.
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> You need to take your meds. I can\'t debate with
> someone who knows nothing about a drug induced
> performance from a visual or performance fig
> perspective.The examples you have cited confirm
> your overall lack of knowledge of the subject
> being discussed.
>
>
> Mike
> I humbly submit to you that whatever you think you
> may have accomplished, that every single year we
> at Team Valor do more.
>
> This year we have already had 6 stakes winners, 5
> of which were bought by me as yearlings, including
> Fairbanks, who is one of the few high-priced
> yearlings in recent years to perform well on the
> track. His 115 Beyer (did I actually say BEYER!
> What an idiot I am!!!) is the best over a route of
> ground by any horse in the country this year.
>
> Good luck with your fantasy stable, pal.
i\'ll bet my life that no partner at team valor makes money this year, all these cheesy syndicates are, are a vechicle for people to say they own a horse, yadda , yadda, yadda, its the barry irwin\'s of the world that are smart & shrewd. after they take their expenses off the top nothing is let for the bagholders. you guys are smart like dogwood you came up with a great idea to rein in suckers, but please don\'t pretend that you are doing anyone a favor.
Chuck,
Ye of little knowledge. What you call a rebreak in most cases is nothing more than a lead change which allows a horse to kick in.Sometimes a horse will \"come again\" in a show of heart/gameness.The conspiracy theorist believe that the sudden burst is from epo or other stuff,I guess.Horse that are \"juiced up\" usually just run away from the pack, imo.
Mike
Since when do people buy horses for profit?
I\'ve been saying for a long time that the economics of racing are preposterous.
IMHO, until owners start thinking like businessmen and start insisting on an adequate risk adjusted return on invested capital for horse ownership, the growth of the sport is going to be hurt by the fact that almost everyone is losing money. How can you grow if everyone is going broke?
That doesn\'t even begin to address the fact that owners are often forced to make decisions about horses that are not in the best interest of the sport because of the crazy economics.
I am not holding out much hope for that though because people buy lots of things like horses that give them intangible pleasures even though they are bad investments.
Miff, I don\'t believe in surges with or without injections. Most times it involves energy dissipation regardless of what its called. The issue is energy which doesnt dissipate as quickly as it should.
I\'ve looked at Jerry\'s numbers and will concede that Pletcher did not \"OFF\" by as much as I at first thought. I\'m gonna add a point to his numbers and if you do so you have one Pletcher topping, One Pletcher pairing, One Pletcher Offing and 2 pletchers X\'ing. I think thats probably a pretty reasonable compromise in the circumstances.
The compromise in no way acquiesces that Pletcher does not drug or was not forced off drugs in the Derby.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Ye of little knowledge. What you call a rebreak in
> most cases is nothing more than a lead change
> which allows a horse to kick in.Sometimes a horse
> will \"come again\" in a show of heart/gameness.The
> conspiracy theorist believe that the sudden burst
> is from epo or other stuff,I guess.Horse that are
> \"juiced up\" usually just run away from the pack,
> imo.
>
>
> Mike