If memory serves, I remember reading the chances of running a new top in the derby or slim although it has happen recently. I believe only a handful have run fast enough so far. Street Sense,Any Given Sunday, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Hard Spun...Am I missing any?
ronwar Wrote:
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> If memory serves, I remember reading the chances
> of running a new top in the derby or slim although
> it has happen recently. I believe only a handful
> have run fast enough so far. Street Sense,Any
> Given Sunday, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Hard
> Spun...Am I missing any?
what about scat daddy?
Notional\'s debut race at 6f\'s in October was fast enough.
It isn\'t a typical looking pattern for a Derby 3yo,but O\'neill seems to have him headed in the right direction again.
Barbaro & Giacomo both ran 4 point tops in the derby so it might be time to consider giving less weight to the trend.
That being said... AGS\'s big fig wide run heartbreaker in the TBD is the most impressive dirt prep so far (don\'t have Currin\'s Rebel fig yet & assuming Wood & SAD were slow) and AGS\'s Wood loss to the slower Nobiz ensures some value now in Ky.
Street Sense still tops with huge fig earned last year but remains biggest X factor:
- possible biased BC fig due to golden rail... jury\'s still out
- Poly Blue Grass prep will not give true indication of current dirt form
- Outrun figwise by AGS in only dirt start this year
- Carl maybe sitting on a gorilla and craftily pointing to big race a la Unbridled
- possibly way overbet on derby day after big BC juve win in Ky a la Arazi
I suggest that those looking for a firm grip on the derby picture this year will either be left frustrated in the weeks to come or else will resort to believing assumptions based on shaky old trends that have been having more and more exceptions in the past decade.
I\'ll live with the muddy picture as I find it difficult to seriously knock the top 7 or so. Only option now is making an odds line as soon as all figs are in & then adjusting when starting posts are selected... then map out plays once tote action is clear.
The final time of the Florida Derby doesn\'t look bad at all, however if you extrapolate the finishes it doesn\'t look very good. The Florida Derby horses have been a little slow to compete or their recent fast raw times indicate that they all improved enough across the board to be factors. I\'m leaning towards the former.
4YO^ Skip Away
10th Race-A.P. Arrow Winner
23.33, 46.86, 1.10.68, 1.36.36, 1.49.70
3YO Florida Derby
11th Race-Scat Daddy Winner
23.05, 46.78, 1.10.82, 1.35.92, 1.49.00
Scat Daddy 1.49 Previous Top-2
Notional 1.49.25 Previous Top-3 (non factoring maiden zed)
Chelokee 1.49.40 Previous Top-3.5
Stormello 1.49.80 (on a fade) Previous Top-4
Unless the Florida Derby 3YO\'s all improved at the same time to surpss the effort of A.P. Arrow, (which may be within the realm of possibilities) The track got a bit hot for that last dirt race. In other words, either A.P Arrow didn\'t get near his Zeds or the Track went berzerker fast for the Florida Derby. (Yes Jerry at this juncture I\'m using your goods)
I wouldn\'t expect the Florida Derby horses to be much of a factor in the Big one. I believe Chelokee is a pass on the race. That said if the 1 or 2 finishers can have a good Derby they could help it pay.
Pletcher is talking big on Scat Daddy after the race, but he is all talk all the time and if you can really figure out who his top horse is you have a better crystal ball than he does. To my mind, where Velasquez ends up will be decisive and I think He\'ll be on Any Given Saturday.
CtC
ronwar Wrote:
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> If memory serves, I remember reading the chances
> of running a new top in the derby or slim although
> it has happen recently. I believe only a handful
> have run fast enough so far. Street Sense,Any
> Given Sunday, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Hard
> Spun...Am I missing any?
Good points! AGS 3rd place finish reminded me of Congaree running away from Monarchos.