I like Hard Spun................
spa Wrote:
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> I like Hard Spun....
you, my friend, are on the bandwagon...meaning that the two fornt seats are now full.
Great Hunter!!!
Circular Quay...If there is a hot pace in the derby, and there always is nowadays, who else would you want to have you\'re money on down the stretch...I really hope Garrett G. gets the mount on this horse...Johnny V is great but I don\'t think there is a better finishing jockey in the game right now that\'s better than Garret G.
Cir Quay not running in the Wood saturday and will go to the derby off a 8 week lay off.That\'s not Pletcher usual mo, so something smells a little.
I like Street Sense and Great Hunter underneath. It wouldn\'t surprise me however, if Hard Spun was a nose behind my top two at the wire:-)
This weekend\'s preps are coming up rather weak. Looks like the Bluegrass will be the most anticipated prep IMO - with SS, GH, HS and AGS going at it. What an awesome lineup that will be!
Who\'s going in the Illinois Derby?
AGS is running in the Wood.
1 Nobiz Like Shobiz Cornelio H. Velasquez
2 Sightseeing Javier Castellano
3 Flashstorm John Jacinto
4 Cowtown Cat Fernando Jara
5 Summer Doldrums Michael J. Luzzi
6 Any Given Saturday John R. Velazquez
7 Reptilian Smarts David Romero Flores
Pletcher pulled AGS out of the Bluegrass to run in the Wood after he decided to skip the race with Circular Quay.
I wonder how the owner\'s of TP\'s other Derby horses feel about having their plans changed because he changes the plans for another of his Derby contenders?
I think a Derby contender is better served when he is trained by someone for whom he is the only concern.
Bob
and the bettors would be served by an entry.......
Is the bandwagon planning a visit to Louisville?
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38296
I think pletcher opted for the easier route with AGS, he needs earnings, without stake $ he don\'t get in. In the Bluegrass there is a chance he doesn\'t hit the board 1st or 2nd. This way with the wood is much easier.
RICH Wrote:
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> I think pletcher opted for the easier route with
> AGS, he needs earnings, without stake $ he don\'t
> get in. In the Bluegrass there is a chance he
> doesn\'t hit the board 1st or 2nd. This way with
> the wood is much easier.
Rich
There is no question about that.
I think the point that people are trying to make is that the Wood only became easier because Pletcher chose to withdraw Circular Quay from it and send Cowtown Cat to Chicago.
If we assume that Circular Quay is physically on top of things, then it looks suspicious. The owners of CQ would be wondeing -- \"why are we going into the Derby off 8 weeks when we had a perfectly good plan all along?\" Also, \"why allow a tough opponent (Any Given Saturday) to get much needed graded stakes money?\"
Then imagine that AGS gets just enough earnings in the Wood to squeak into the Derby field and then beats an unlucky CQ by a nose for all the money in the Derby. If I were the owner of CQ, I would say \"why on earth didn\'t we run against that guy in the Wood? We could have eliminated him from the Derby then and there.\" When you see one trainer with so much influence over the competitive balance, things start to look suspiciou.
\" When you see one trainer with so much influence over the competitive balance, things start to look suspiciou.
So Cal,
You can bet that CQ has some physical issue or has not trained strongly up to the Wood to Pletchers satifaction. The guys the most accomplished trainer over the last few years but is 0 for 14 in the Derby. Do you really think he would try to get \"cute\" with a top Derby prospect like CQ with his major owner Tabor, no less?
Mike
I think SoCal\'s point is that whether he is changing CQ\'s plans to benefit AGS or vice versa, or even none of the above, training several different contenders for different owners who are not only competing in the Derby but for earnings as well as the best preparation, is going to raise conflict of interest issues.
This is true even if he is trying not to show favoritism.
Bob
Pletcher is only changing CQ\'s plan because something is obviously not right with the horse.Suggesting in any way that he is fooling with the possible derby favorite/second choice for other reasons is absurd.
Mike
Mike,
I never accused Pletcher of doing that - some other poster may have said that.
In my post I said that WHETHER OR NOT Pletcher is favoring anyone\'s horse, the issue is whether someone training traing multiple contenders for multiple owners pointing to the same race is facing possible conflicts of interest.
Bob
miff Wrote:
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> Pletcher is only changing CQ\'s plan because
> something is obviously not right with the
> horse.Suggesting in any way that he is fooling
> with the possible derby favorite/second choice for
> other reasons is absurd.
>
> Mike
I respectfully disagree. Todd knows that his golden hay usually does not get two big efforts four weeks apart. His horses that have run big in the top preps have always run out of the money in the derby. His in the money derby finishes have always come off weak races. Since CQ already has the earnings, and assuming Todd wasn\'t planning on cranking him up anyway, what\'s the point of shipping CQ into cold NY? That would seem more like \"fooling\" with CQ as opposed to training him up to the race, which Todd seems to be pretty darn good at. They may feel it\'s CQ\'s best shot, even if it defies traditional logic.
Flush,
TAP publicly stated weeks ago that CQ\'s plan was the Wood and then the derby. That plan has changed for some unknown reason. Trainers rarely make schedule changes for a race like the derby this close, unless the horse \"tells\" them.Missing a prep or key work is often the kiss of death and probably more so for a young 3yr old going 10f for the first time.Good spacing is very important, 8 weeks is ridiculous, win or lose, forget tradition.
The connections are being very tight lipped about CQ so far.Someone from Florida said CQ\'s is going soundly but did not appear to have his usual energy level of late.Incidentally, shipping a horse to the much cooler NY(as you said) is preferable to the heat of Florida.
Anyway we have a betting choice with knocks, great, no?
Mike
I agree with you. It\'s not so much that I object to the 8 weeks. If it was scheduled from the beginning then the only debate would be whether trianing up to the race was the right strategic move. It\'s the fact that it was unscheduled that raises the red flag. It suggests that he\'s either not acting right or has a minor problem. Plus, IMO, it might not even be the optimal strategic move even if he was 100%. I prefer a solid race a few weeks before the Derby, but one that\'s not a huge new peak.
Mike, your points are valid and understood... what I don\'t agree with is your level of certainty on the issue. I can\'t imagine anything that is \"absurd or ridiculous\" when we\'re talking about a trainer who gets negative 4s out of his third stringers and when teamed with Tabor, just off the top of my head...
- in 05 has a contender miss the Fla derby due to a foot bruise but comes back 2 weeks after that to run a 7 pt top negative 3 off a 6 week break, then return to oblivion
- in 02 has king kong of a sprinter stretch out in the Whitney to beat a solid field and tie the Toga track record (aren\'t tracks getting slower?) in his first stakes win going 2 turns, then never returns to the track and doesn\'t live to see his next birthday, as the 3rd TAP stakes winner to drop dead that year
- in 95, with TAP as asst, wins the derby by open lengths as his jock, in 2nd best acting performance of career, gives Pat Day suspicious looking extended \"handslap\" shortly after wire
So if CQ, who\'s none little wrong in his career, wins the derby off 8 weeks, would it be such a surprise for these guys?
Maybe my problem is that while I slave away 9 to 5 just to keep up with the increasing cost of housing, gas and food I imagine a guy like Tabor is sitting on one of his yachts, bored, and contemplating ways to amuse himself by breaking the rules, a la Steve McQueen as Thomas Crown.
Flush,
You\'re obviously one of the anti-Pletchers.Firstly, he does not get neg 4\'s out of his third stringers and you only mention a few runners out of the many underachieving Tabor horses (trained by TAP) that cost millions.Regarding CQ I can say with certainty now that he is NOT tearing the barn down to run. What will be in an 8 week break is anyone\'s guess.
Fact, TAP is 0 for 14 at the derby and something like 0 for 30 in the last TC and BC races. If he\'s using drugs, they\'re not working very well.Without passion, just look at what makes common sense and I think you will see where I am coming from.Sooner or later with that barn, he\'s bound to have a few very fast ones.
In any event, good luck,and stick to your own opinion.
Mike
do you really think he would take a chance of being the first trainer disq-ed in the derby? hes just happy to be there. dont worry he will have the juice out everywhere else.
Pletcher scratched Cowtown Cat from the Wood.
I like Hard Spun.