Beyer beware
Trainer Rick Violette is looking to put the Beyer Speed Figures in its proper place when he saddles Summer Doldrums in the April 7 Wood Memorial (gr. I). When Violette found out that the colt's 106 Beyer figure in the Whirlaway Stakes had been changed to a 94 AFTER the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), he was quite taken aback.
The change was made when the Gotham winner, Cowtown Cat, received only an 88 Beyer, meaning Summer Doldrums, who was third, received several points lower than that, a substantial drop from his 106. There was a ton of money wagered on Summer Doldrums in the Gotham based on that 106, and Violette, fearing a bounce, purposely undertrained the colt for the race. Now, the bettors and Violette find out Summer Doldrums actually ran 12 points lower.
"My horse got a '2 3/4' on the Ragozin Sheets, which shows that the Whirlaway was a fast race," Violette said. "In the Gotham, it wasn't taken into consideration that the winds picked up right before the race and the temperature suddenly dropped. The jocks all came back and commented on how much the track had changed. You had legitimate :45 (half) horses go in :49. There was no doubt the track slowed down, so I don't buy that 88 for the winner.
"There were two reasons that contributed to Summer Doldrums' defeat (by only 2 1/2 lengths). Despite the fact that they lowered his Beyer figure, he did run fast in the Whirlaway and 'bounced' a little off that effort, and he came back with so much crud in his lungs after the Gotham he could hardly breathe. Now I'm really looking forward to the Wood."
I\'m so glad you asked.
On Feb 10th (NOT Gotham day), the wind picked up tremendously, and changed direction, during the 8th race, the Whirlaway. Whether that was the reason or not, you had to add (3 points, equivalent to 10 Beyer points) compared to the previous race. If you look at the TG sheets below you will see why I say obviously-- I wouldn\'t have needed wind info or any reason to go with the variant I used, it was obvious, as you can see from looking at the first 3 finishers.
On March 10th the track was changing speed during the middle of the card, but this time the wind was pretty steady (though pretty strong). But by the time it came to the last two races-- both routes-- it had setlled into one speed. Again, if you look at the sheets below, you will see there was no doubt about how to handle it.
Beyer originally got the Whirlaway wrong, and corrected it later. Ragozin got it wrong, and didn\'t-- he is stuck, because he is invested in the ridiculous concept of the track not changing speed (see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archives on this site). Don\'t know what Ragozin did with the Gotham, but one of the problems with making mistakes in this busines is that they compound themselves-- you make the Gotham figures (in part) using the Whirlaway figures.
At least somebody understands how these errors can feed into subsequent figures.
JB,
Re the wind on Feb 10th.
1.This was a two turn race and the wind direction has little relevance since they run into it and with it for app the same distance.
2.The wind picking up would suck moisture out of the surface and make it slower rather than faster.
What made you conclude that the track was 3 points faster than the previous race. Your fig made more sense than Beyer or Rags but your explanation is a little unclear
Mike
1-- There is an exponential element to the effect of wind, which means that when the wind is high, gusts and lulls during the running (which are impossible to measure) have more of an effect on time depending on when during the race they occur. Additionally, there is a great big building (grandstand) there, and nobody alive has a completely accurate formula that accounts for what happens when wind bounces off a specific structure. If you have ever seen the flags pointing TOWARDS each other in the infield at Aqu you have seen what I\'m talking about-- wind sucks around the building like around the wing of an airplane.
2-- If you listen to \"Changing Track Speeds\", you will see that changes in moisture can either speed up or slow down the track depending on the makeup of the track and what the moisture content is before it changes. Drying out can either speed up or slow down the track, depending.
3-- What made me decide is what always makes me decide-- I looked at the horses figure histories, and how fast they ran on this day.
JB
Eric-- since you decided to jump into this and actually discuss the issues, how about posting the sheets for the two races, as I did. You post them for lots of other races.
I\'m not sure about the Beyer Whirlaway, both the original and the correction. But inner numbers can be fickle. This looks like a Tgraph race to me and what they say I\'d probably back, but I don\'t know what they have on it.
I will say this. Regardless of what the Whirlaway number actually is I except Summer Doldrums to run a much improved Wood. He is a good horse and his sire is the hottest thing going.
(Later, thx Jerry, I do know what the Whirlaway is now and it looks like a very logical number.)
By the way, one bad apple can spoil the whole bunch. But a bad apple can be corrected in next race extrapolation too.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> Re the wind on Feb 10th.
>
> 1.This was a two turn race and the wind direction
> has little relevance since they run into it and
> with it for app the same distance.
>
> 2.The wind picking up would suck moisture out of
> the surface and make it slower rather than
> faster.
>
> What made you conclude that the track was 3 points
> faster than the previous race. Your fig made more
> sense than Beyer or Rags but your explanation is a
> little unclear
>
>
> Mike