On the Coaching Club American Oaks - At a glance, I like Tarnished Lady. It\'s true that she hasn\'t got back to that (dirt) top, but the races since then were an expected bounce on dirt on a short break and then three on grass, the last two of which were on good and yielding surfaces. The pattern off the top was good too, with the bounce, a slight improvement and a return to her better form before the last race, which was wishy-washy.
So I like TL back on dirt at the price, especially since the fastest horse should bounce and Chamwhatever will be about 2-1 and is hardly overwhelming by comparison. As Michael D. says you have to be an expert before the race, so I\'m taking my shot.
BTW Michael, with Grundlefoot (I used him on the now infamous Preakness Day), figure in the weight AND the ground loss and he could run his race and lose easy. Good luck to all. HP
Good point on Grundle, 8/5 wont cover the risk on this horse. With all of the speed types entered though, he may be able to save ground until the clubhouse turn, which may put him close at the end. As for the ROTW, Jilbab looks the best, but Bailey or JR seem to win this race every year. I will toss Bailey and go with Jilbab and TL.
MD, nothing from nothing, but I make Jilbab a toss. If you bet them to bounce, you bet them to BOUNCE at 2 or 3-1. HP
What\'s wrong with Jaramar Rain? She likes Belmont and is bred for the distance. I think I might have to go three deep in this one, hope to hit the double or a pk3.
What\'s wrong with Jaramar Rain? Total throwout. Filly off a top on relatively short rest running a mile and a half. Plus look what happened last time she ran a big number. I don\'t care if she\'s bred to run in outer space. Awful. I\'m surprised at you. How\'d you do so good in the last contest go-round? JRain will be up the track for sure. Toss her and you can thank me later.
At least with Jilbab she can bounce a little and still get in the picture (but as I\'ve said before, if you play them to bounce at a short price you should play like they will really bounce and not hedge so much). If I was going to \'save\' with anyone it would be Chamrousse over TLady. Meanwhile I don\'t know if I\'ll be able to get a bet down today, but next Sunday I\'ll get to play for sure and you can help me out. Good luck. HP
MD, Sorry didn\'t mean to go nuts there. I\'m guessing you would know I\'m just goofing around. But I have more conviction to bet on Jaramar Rain to lose than I do on TLady to win! I would bet $20 on JRain to lose for every $5 I would bet on TLady to win. I wish they had a window at the track for this kind of thing. HP
hahhaahah........ just reading it now, so I got the warning first. Yes, I would also like to be able to go short horses. I guess that is the most important part of the game, knowing who to bet AGAINST, as opposed to being totally committed to one horse. I will stick with my three horse box, and just hope Bailey doesn\'t steal this one.
Key Horse: SISTER GIRL BLUES
TARNISHED LADY and CHAMROUSSE are a must use in the EX\'s with the key hoss.
You\'re all so caught up in the speed figures that you\'ll miss the only one with a win at the distance.
I wasted some money in the exactas and pk3\'s with Jar Rain, but my first two picks fired on all cylinders. Next time I promise to pay more attention when you are so emphatic. Coming into today\'s racing, I thought we could see the best 3 yr old filly run today, and although I thought it would be the Slew filly in Delaware, I thought there was an outside chance it would be Jilbab. The horse is an absolute monster. I think JR might get this mount for the Alabama, and she will leave Bella B in the dust.
Scott,
Good one.
I would have bet TLady to win and lost. Good choice for ROTW as it really highlighted the issues you have to look at with fillies. It also showed that the figures are a more useful guide to a horse\'s performance than this \'bred for the distance\' or \'loves the track\' stuff. If a horse is bred for the distance and looks too slow, it\'s still too slow. If a horse is bred for the distance and loves the track and looks like she\'s going to bounce you should play her to bounce regardless of the other positive points.
Congrats to MD. Using an extra horse in the exotics is not the worst thing in the world if it\'s a square price. HP
I will get your opinion next w/e, between the two of us, I think we should be able to come up with a few winners......Cheers