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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Lost Cause on February 27, 2007, 09:50:38 AM

Title: Track Bias
Post by: Lost Cause on February 27, 2007, 09:50:38 AM
Can anyone explain to me how a track gets and stays biased if there is a maintenance crew that supposedly looks out for this kind of thing.  If you are not on the lead and the rail at Aqueduct you better be Secretariat to run down the horse in front, It\'s ridiculous and it happens at plenty of other tracks.  I can understand the once in a while bias but the same daily biases make no sense to me.  If the track wants to offer a fair race why don\'t they make the track fair.  Is it because of the track configuration that it has to be so?

The worst is when there is a \"big day\"at any track, and the maintenance crew deliberaely packs the track to break all the speed records,  once a horse gets to the front he can go 21 43 107 under pressure and still win a one mile race by open lengths...Watch what happens this weekend at Santa Anita and Gulfstream on the dirt.
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: marcus on February 27, 2007, 08:24:23 PM
looks like aqi inner is holding it\'s form  , thursday through sunday  *17 winners for 36 races  in 1st at the 1/4 or 1/2 . 2-22 / 6 , 2-23 / 1 , 2-24 / 4 , 2-25 / 6 .

imo - the bias can get even more profound when just grabbing the lead at the start to the 1/4 pole gets home as was the case 9 times over these same 4 days thrs - sun .

i\'ve wondered whether on certain days ( and this just a theory i\'m working on ) the aqu inner has a \"reverse speed bias\" where it\'s playing \"too fast\" and set\'s up for the off pace runners or closer\'s  ...
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: miff on February 28, 2007, 06:13:22 AM
The configuration of the inner track itself(tight turns) also lends itself to inside speed.When the inside runners cut the corner they get en extra benefit from the horses caught wide.Jocks are aware and thats why you will see most gun to the lead if possible.

Mike
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: marcus on February 28, 2007, 07:00:20 AM
miff - thanks , that would make perfect sense - track configuration and tight turns at Aqi account for  the inner track \"bias\" and not track composition or maintenence   . i noticed while watching the BC from LS just how tight turned or uniquely configured they are as well . horses on the inside at LS that day appeared to modify their stride and from what i could tell , were practically vaulting ( to accomendate  what seemed close to a 45 dgree angle ) from where the end of the turn meets the stretch   ...
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: Bally Ache on February 28, 2007, 03:03:29 PM
I wonder how many of you are old enough to remember Ussery\'s Alley.  When Bobby Ussery had a front runner on the outside in a sprint he would deliberately stay outside with the horse down the backside and then cut over coming into the stretch so that the horse would be effectively running downhill for a time.

This was before the Inner of course.
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: marcus on February 28, 2007, 04:49:17 PM
thanks bally ache , guess i\'d be a southern hemisphere 3 yo or so in horse racing years - i didn\'t know about bobby ussery and ussery\'s alley but it\'s very interesting ...

i\'ve been taken to task before about imo the whole phenomina and potential tactical racing advantage that can be gained by horses running off the \"crown\" at times . maybe it has to be seen to be belived but i don\'t have any doubt that bobby , despite giving ground , was smart to have done that with useery\'s alley when he did  ...

even in a relatively short timespan of the past 20 yrs , i have myself seen the game go through considerable change , perhaps a complete transformation , still i\'m pretty happy to be part of it . something tells me though , that we could use a few more like bobby and \'alley right now ...
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: Boscar Obarra on February 28, 2007, 09:23:42 PM
I remember seeing Ussery do that a few times. Don\'t recall that it was a downhill thing, but the horse would shoot past the field and open up. Many won.

  I think they either changed the track or told him to stop doing it, as it was either \'dangerous\' or too     unconventional.
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: miff on March 01, 2007, 06:22:21 AM
It was banned by the stewards. Several other jocks began to do it and one mistimed the swoop and almost wiped out half the field.There was only one Bob Ussery, great speed jock.

Mike
Title: Re: Track Bias
Post by: Bally Ache on March 01, 2007, 10:55:52 AM
Ussery won two KY Derbys in a row.  Not many jocks have done that.  Of course they stole one of them when they dq\'d Dancer\'s Image.  But he won it on the track and nothing they say or do can ever change that.  If you bet Dancer\'s Image you got paid (9-2 was the price).  If you bet Forward Pass you lost.

As I recall, Bute was the issue.  It was illegal at the time.  The irony is that, by general acclaim, KY is now one of the most permissive states on medication.  Unless a horse comes on the track with a syringe sticking out of his flank, he\'s probably good to go.