I know people hate talking about their bets, but I am not shy. I put down $200 on Scat Daddy. I think 44-1 is a great price on a Pletcher-Velasquez-Tabor horse that won the Champagne, beat Nobiz Like Shobiz, and was 7-2 in the Juvenile. I think you can easily forgive both his Juvenile and his comebacker. I may not win this bet, but I still love it nonetheless (which is a hard thing in the KY Derby Future Pool). Does anybody else\'s office spam filter block emails with the horse\'s name in it? Mine does. IT guy tells me it is an obscene phrase. I wonder how it got past the JC.
I agree with everybody who has been pointing out that it is crazy that the futures pool is limited to 24 entries. Exacta and DD pools are no different than what a 144 horse Derby Future Pool would be. There is even something in it for the track in that they could justify an exacta-like take (no more than 18%, please). With the enlarged betting pools such a move would engender, the change would bring a windfall for the track (and horsemen, and taxmen, etc, in addition increasing the entertainment value to us bettors). Also, if it was marketed correctly, I bet you could bring in a whole lot of betting from one time a year type people. They are happy and we are happy that they are in the pool. Also, with the way the internet works, imagine the type of aftermarket that could be created. I bet there could be an active reselling market. Now, I just wish I had gotten 100 $2 tickets on Scat Daddy instead of one $200.
And Scat Daddy already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby starting gate. He\'s likely to have a lot of company that\'s proven only over artificial surfaces.
I went with All Other 3yos at 5/2. It\'s not going to earn me any bragging rights, but I think it\'s a value play. What happened to the guy who used to pound the Field as soon as the pool opened?
I thought Scat might run back last time and imo - the fact that it didn\'t happen last race probably bodes well for his KD chances . I can understand the all others - the pool felt thin , i went very litely w/ Buffalo Man ...
44-1 is a great price if the horse gets in the gate. In your 44-1, you have to factor in how many times you WONT get in the gate.
Also, whatever value you had, your 200 knocked down your price from 94 dollars to 90 dollars. You \'cost yourself\' around 300 bucks of value. If you DIDNT wager 200 bucks, Scat would have paid 94 which means all the other people who bet 200 would collect 9400, by wagering 200, you are going to collect 9080, or approx 300 less.
If you waited until the Derby and bet your 200 bucks, you might only receive 25-1 and not 44-1....but, on that 25-1, you WONT knock your own price down at all. With 200 to win, a 52 dollar horse still pays 52, not 48.
You might say, \"Well, 44-1 is better than 25-1\" but thats not necessarily so considering in a computer simulation, the 25-1 is 100 for 100 getting in the gate, where the 44-1 is going to miss a decent amount of the time.
Also, you get a lot of bang for your buck at 25-1 because you are:
1) guaranteed to get in the gate
2) get to see all his prep races and make adjustments accordingly
3) get to see post position draw, jock, etc.
4) get to see all the other contenders races and post positions
5) get to see a warmup (if you have a phone account and are betting from home watching tv)
6) get to see \'the works\' on TVG.
You get lots for that 25-1. (all this assumes he\'s 25-1 at post time)
In my opinion, its REALLY hard to get value on only 23 betting interests. When the Derby decides to have betting on EVERY TC nominee, with hundreds of horses, THAN the value will be insane because you can get 3, 4 and 500-1 on some horses.
Imallin -
Since it\'s a parimutuel pool, they can\'t ALL be underlays. Sure, more betting interests would create additional opportunities, but 24 is a lot more than we normally see.
Churchill seems to have their hands full with 24. The real-time odds board they put online was pathetic. Only numbers, no names. Maybe they got caught unprepared when TVG declined to take the bet.
The three most worn out words used by every genius who knows anything about racing.
1.Value
2.Overlay
3.Underlay
Mike
I guess I am no genius since my first post did not use any of those three worn out words.
We are just trying to get a thread going on handicapping here -- cut us some slack, please. If you want to show us up for being idiots, at least do it intelligently. A sarcastic attack on posters rather than on their argument doesn\'t make you look any more genius. If you do not like the thread, ignore it.
In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more compensatory of the risk I took than it does in your view.
Part of my reasoning in making the play is that Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of people got off him because of two bad races (both with very good reasons to be throw out from a handicapping perspective). If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him and he will look a lot better than a 25-1 shot. I am just trying to catch him when everybody else is off him. I do agree with you that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then, even if he wins, my bet does not look so good. The premium is not enough. But, in that scenario, my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I suffer the consequences.
Ya know - Every future wager I\'ve ever made (football, baseball and horses)sounded good,looked good and it felt good talking about how smart I was too. I have yet to cash one. I\'m thinking it\'s kind of a sucker play.
So Cal,
Was not trying to disparage you or anyone else. My point was at some time every player uses those words which makes all of us geniuses.There are obviously major differences of opinion as to what the three words mean to each player with no real answer.
As far as your bet, if you cash, what you coulda, shoulda done won\'t mean much.
Mike
P.S. Uncle Buck, we go to the same school.
Uncle Buck -
I think a lot of them are sucker plays because Vegas sets ridiculously low odds lines. In a parimutuel pool, the takeout is the same as always. It\'s just the analysis that\'s different.
Didn\'t you have Sweetnorthernsaint at 30/1 last year? It\'s hard for me to think of that as a sucker play.
Buck, if you get enjoyment out of it, is it really a sucker play? (assuming you play this game for fun)
I tread carefully in this area, as I find it difficult to evaluate what odds are good or bad. Plus, with the bullcrap pari-mutual futures, you don\'t know what odds you\'re getting anyway unless you bet late. Like for instance that Pletcher trained half sister to Jazil that just ran that monster race last week. Is 7-2 a good future price in the Oaks? If she makes the race and doesn\'t flop in the expected one prep at 3-5, she\'ll be odds on in May.
The last time I played derby futures was 03, when I played the field in pool one and singled a bunch of others at what seemed like decent odds. By derby day I had almost the whole field. I was at a derby party and just before the race a novice friend asked me what I had. I told him I\'ll show a profit if any horse wins except the 6. The rest is history.
I\'ll take 3-1 on the field in the Oaks.
actually, I won\'t, but it looks like the best price on the board to me at $8.80.
For this to be a profitable wager, IMO you are dealing with two main issues.
1. Estimating the chances your horse will remain sound until the Derby.
2. Estimating the chances your horse will move forward enough to become a major contender on Derby day.
Once you have a line on those two issues, you can compare the probabilities to the odds.
I think it would be very useful to look at the betting for the last few Derbys to see what percentage of the horses got hurt from the time Pool1, Pool2 etc.. opened to the day of the Derby. That would help with issue #1 in a general sense. We could always get more specific by looking at the trainer, horse\'s record to date.
Issue #2 is a matter of pedigree (early or late bloomer, distance lover etc...), trainer\'s style of developing horses (come out running, slow to develop), how much ability the horse has shown to date, number of starts it has had so far etc....
I never made any Derby future bets because I didn\'t think I could answer question #1 any better than any Joe Blow that picks up the DRF. However, if we had some decent stats, I surely would be tempted because I\'m pretty sure I can answer question two a lot better than most.
SoCal,
You got good odds, that was in your favor. Though in looking at Scat Daddy\'s pedigree I wish you\'d gotten them in the Breeders Cup Sprint, he would appear much more suited for.
I\'m not sure how you read Scat Daddy\'s past performances, but I\'ll chime in upon how I read them beginning with his first race:
5.5 furlongs in the slop. He gets out nicely along the rail, vies for the lead and widens well late beating the Whirlaway winner Summer Doldrums.
6 furlongs, he is gets out nicely again despite some early jostling and is life and death to outlast sprinting a horse Hard Spun has been beating rather handily. Granted they are developing and each race is unique in time.
1 turn mile, a nice wide run and manages to outlast NoBiz.
At this point there is an obvious change in his effectiveness. Any reader of Past Performances should note a couple of important facts in Scat Daddy\'s last two races. The first is that he had to try to negotiate 2 turns at Churchill Downs and didn\'t fair very well.
The other is that he caught the inside part of the one turn mile bias at Gulfstream and didn\'t fair very well against a horse he had beaten as a juvenile.
This horse is by Johannesburg, a sire by Hennessey and out of an Ogygian mare. To my eye that is screaming precociousness and sprinter on male side pedigree. Add to that fact his broodmare sire is by Mr. Prospector and the recipe to go on is getting mighty thin, especially in light of the fact that going on hasn\'t been demonstrated in his last two trips. In his favor is that the direct tail female looks pretty good. But dang its gonna have to be.
I\'ve been wrong before and may be again but I\'d take a very strong position that this is not a Derby caliber horse and think 300-1 would not be unreasonable odds.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/scat+daddy
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know people hate talking about their bets, but I
> am not shy. I put down $200 on Scat Daddy. I
> think 44-1 is a great price on a
> Pletcher-Velasquez-Tabor horse that won the
> Champagne, beat Nobiz Like Shobiz, and was 7-2 in
> the Juvenile. I think you can easily forgive both
> his Juvenile and his comebacker. I may not win
> this bet, but I still love it nonetheless (which
> is a hard thing in the KY Derby Future Pool).
> Does anybody else\'s office spam filter block
> emails with the horse\'s name in it? Mine does.
> IT guy tells me it is an obscene phrase. I wonder
> how it got past the JC.
>
> I agree with everybody who has been pointing out
> that it is crazy that the futures pool is limited
> to 24 entries. Exacta and DD pools are no
> different than what a 144 horse Derby Future Pool
> would be. There is even something in it for the
> track in that they could justify an exacta-like
> take (no more than 18%, please). With the
> enlarged betting pools such a move would engender,
> the change would bring a windfall for the track
> (and horsemen, and taxmen, etc, in addition
> increasing the entertainment value to us bettors).
> Also, if it was marketed correctly, I bet you
> could bring in a whole lot of betting from one
> time a year type people. They are happy and we
> are happy that they are in the pool. Also, with
> the way the internet works, imagine the type of
> aftermarket that could be created. I bet there
> could be an active reselling market. Now, I just
> wish I had gotten 100 $2 tickets on Scat Daddy
> instead of one $200.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The three most worn out words used by every genius
> who knows anything about racing.
>
> 1.Value
>
> 2.Overlay
>
> 3.Underlay
>
> Mike
4. Bounce
I have a friend who says value 20 times a day when we go out. As he rips up another ticket, I ask him how much \"value\" that ticket has now. His reply is usually \"%$^#^%$ you.\"
not trying to belittle in any way, just wanted to bring up a few points i felt were something everyone could consider.
Sure, you\'re correct, if your horse runs off the screen in his next prep, your bet at 44-1 is going to look ingenius no doubt. I came up with 25-1 vs 44-1 because i feel that you need almost double the odds NOW than you would be getting on Derby day just to make it an even-steven swap. 44-1 now = 25-1 on Derby Day IMO.
If you can find a way to get into the gate at 8-1, you made a decent bet.
Remember, the Derby is also going to have 20 starters, which means that 8-1 is almost the favorite...i believe that Barbaro was a close 2nd choice in the wagering at 6-1.
You can never really go wrong risking 1 dollar to win 44 dollars on anything in horseracing, i just wanted to bring up a few points about your wager. Hopefully you didn\'t feel i was picking on you.
Imallin,
In my post, in the first part, I was talking to Miff, not you. I thought Miff was being critical of you and I was actually coming to your defense.
CHuckes, I have a lengthy response to your thoughts on my pick if you are interested, but I will spare the board. If you want it, let me know and I will see if I can figure out how to send it throught he person to person messages.
SCM2
Not sure...i thought my post was informative, correct and spot on...thats why it didn\'t even dawn on me that someone might criticize.
SoCalMan2 Wrote In Part:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you
> raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes
> it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of
> 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more
> compensatory of the risk I took than it does in
> your view.
>
> Part of my reasoning in making the play is that
> Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of
> people got off him because of two bad races (both
> with very good reasons to be throw out from a
> handicapping perspective). If he runs a superb
> prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop
> back on him and he will look a lot better than a
> 25-1 shot. I am just trying to catch him when
> everybody else is off him. I do agree with you
> that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then,
> even if he wins, my bet does not look so good.
> The premium is not enough. But, in that scenario,
> my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I
> suffer the consequences.
Dear Chickles,
I see in another thread that my Scat Daddy future has piqued your interest.
Looks to me like I was talking about your ilk when I said in this thread -- \"If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him.\"
Let me give your ilk a little handicapping lesson gratis -- the reason the sheets are the sheets is that they give you the horse\'s ENTIRE career in one GRAPH. You are supposed to base your analysis on the entire graph, not just the horse\'s last race. When I used to go to Friedman\'s seminars, he used to always stress not to put too much weight on one number. He explained that the crowd always does this, but a sophisticated sheet handicapper should not and in fact should try to take advantage of the crowd when they do this.
Just for you, I can condense this lesson down to two words -- Sinister Minister.
Guys like you who let one race change your view from a horse being bettable at 300-1 versus being a good deal at 44-1 are a sheetplayers dream and just the kind we want in the pools.
Unfortunately, I am concerned about SC\'s FOY performance because I am worried that he may have shot his wad a bit too soon and actually hurt his Derby chances rather than helped them. The FOY has a strong recent history of chewing up and spitting out good 3 yos. I am hoping that this is not the case with SC, but I actually like his chances less now than I did before the FOY. I would have much preferred a race that just came back to his 2 yo top rather than a potential big jump up. I am actually hoping that his number does not come out too big.
Does anybody know if he carried the 120 or 122? Based on the conditions of the FOY, depending on how one reads the conditions, the issue would seem to hinge on what 4th place money was in the Breeders Cup. If it was $75k or greater, he maybe should have been assigned 122, if it was less, then in all cases he would have been eligible to carry 120. Those 2 lbs could be half a point. In the old days, they use to have a place in the chart for \"corrected weights\" just to clarify issues like this. Kudos to Elkurzhal who spotted this. I tried to check the DRF on this, but their site was down for maintenance.
I wanna talk about the \"Ilk\". I was there at Hallandale Saturday and I was optimistic, because there were a lot of attractive young women there in sexy outfits betting money. I call it the \"easy money\" and theres no way a 24 year old woman can factor things as thoroughly as someone thats been involved in the minutia of the game for years. But sometimes, the non thinking ilk have an advantage. Sometimes they can make automatic bets and Fountain of Youth day was just such a day. The Ilk bet on Pletcher all day and they cashed on Pletcher all day. His horses ran well. Of course, they ran well on juice but the Ilk cashed and the Ilk beat me like a drum.
The problem for the Ilk though is that down the line the races will not be as automatic. More variables will come into play. Chief among those variables being the other trainers that utilize horsemanship will have their steeds poised for a top effort on the biggest day. The implication being of course that the juice helps, but it helps less when the others are ready to fire their best shot. And that surmises that the juice will be available on the big day.
Scat Daddy has a tall order. You can\'t dissuade the ilk from betting upon Pletcher or Scat, but you can take advantage of their one dimensional thinking. Some ilk cashed Saturday, other ilk have prospective wagers, vapor hopes and perhaps seek accolades far too early.
On the big day, Beat Pletcher like a drum and the Ilk too!
CtC
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unfortunately, I am concerned about SC\'s FOY
> performance because I am worried that he may have
> shot his wad a bit too soon and actually hurt his
> Derby chances rather than helped them. The FOY
> has a strong recent history of chewing up and
> spitting out good 3 yos. I am hoping that this is
> not the case with SC, but I actually like his
> chances less now than I did before the FOY. I
> would have much preferred a race that just came
> back to his 2 yo top rather than a potential big
> jump up. I am actually hoping that his number does
> not come out too big.
>
They crawled home in this race. They came home in 25-2 and then 13-4. I don\'t think this race will earn a very big #, although Scat Daddy did have a wide trip.
I don\'t understand your thinking on Scat Daddy. This is a very easy horse for me to read.
He flashed some early talent.
He strongly hinted of better things to come in the Champagne where he earned a good figure closing down a quality field while losing a lot of ground despite a crawling pace.
He had no chance in the BC Juvenile where he raced relatively close to a fast pace while far outside on a day when the inside seemed to be the place to be. A quick glance at the charts shows how the horses racing near the pace did in that race.
He came back with a reasonable prep. IMO it was ideal, if you were/are trying to get a horse to peak in the Derby.
Now, he apparently moved forward a bit (pending the TG figure) second off the layoff. That\'s exactly what you would want to see (unless he went too far).
Obviously there are questions about his ability to stay 10F and you can\'t be sure he will continue developing between now and May. However, those are legitimate questions about most of the 3YOs at this time of year.
Personally, I congratulate anyone that was wise enough to get a futures bet in on him prior to the FOY victory no matter what happens from here. There was a lot of value in understanding the true quality of his Champagne and his legitimate excuse in the BC Juvenile. I understood both, but didn\'t pull the trigger on any futures bets.
Beyer\'s:
King of the Roxy 103( one turn though) deserves a shot at stretching out, no, Barry?
Great Hunter 101 and wide to boot.
Scat Daddy 95, wide, but they came back to him the last eight in a very slow split. Will get a good loaded ground fig.Solid efforts by Stormello and Adore the Gold.
Mike
Theres no crying in baseball and theres no celebrating a future bet at even 1000-1 until the bet is cashed. Its like celebrating your stock investment before you sell and take the profit. Its premature is all.
Scat did some things in the Fountain of Youth to move him up, but theres a host of factors that are still in the mix. He\'s going to have to overcome a tried and true negative profile. I\'m skeptical, but in the unlikely event someone cashes a future bet upon him in the Derby, I\'ll be the first to say congrats you\'ve overcame a tremendous bias and broke the mold. He\'s still very much a longshot to win the Derby. Despite sufficient earnings, I\'m guessing he won\'t start in it. I think Pletcher bumped him too much Saturday, but the actual speed of the race is still under review.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t understand your thinking on Scat Daddy.
> This is a very easy horse for me to read.
>
> He flashed some early talent.
>
> He strongly hinted of better things to come in the
> Champagne where he earned a good figure closing
> down a quality field while losing a lot of ground
> despite a crawling pace.
>
> He had no chance in the BC Juvenile where he raced
> relatively close to a fast pace while far outside
> on a day when the inside seemed to be the place to
> be. A quick glance at the charts shows how the
> horses racing near the pace did in that race.
>
> He came back with a reasonable prep. IMO it was
> ideal, if you were/are trying to get a horse to
> peak in the Derby.
>
> Now, he apparently moved forward a bit (pending
> the TG figure) second off the layoff. That\'s
> exactly what you would want to see (unless he went
> too far).
>
> Obviously there are questions about his ability to
> stay 10F and you can\'t be sure he will continue
> developing between now and May. However, those are
> legitimate questions about most of the 3YOs at
> this time of year.
>
> Personally, I congratulate anyone that was wise
> enough to get a futures bet in on him prior to the
> FOY victory no matter what happens from here.
> There was a lot of value in understanding the true
> quality of his Champagne and his legitimate excuse
> in the BC Juvenile. I understood both, but didn\'t
> pull the trigger on any futures bets.
King of the Roxy is forcing us to stretch him out. We planned to stick with one turn, but after a race like he ran on Saturday, we at least have to try him once.
imo - he sure had a big back 2 yo number and it looked like he ran another one during his 3 yo debut in the Hutchenson - if right , would seem to have enormous potential ...
There are some good Big Name seven furlong and mile races later such as the Kings Bishop and Jerome. You already know he can handle a mile at Belmont Park.
Opportunities like the old Jim Beam at Turfway and the Arkansas Derby with $500,000-$750,000 purses come along once. You owe it to the horse and to yourselves to take your best shot.