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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: spa on November 19, 2006, 05:13:21 AM

Title: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: spa on November 19, 2006, 05:13:21 AM
Can anyone figure this race??????????? A full field of every type of runner under the sun. Money to be made,if we can pick one......
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: shanahan on November 19, 2006, 06:11:07 AM
good timing - just finished the card.  Preside and Blotto are my top two choices, and have pretty enticing ML odds.  Can\'t tell if the Dallas Stewart horse is 1st time gelding or not - probably not since he showed sudden improve two back.  Tocquvilee is a bounce for sure.


Good pools yesterday at the CD...msw breeding on turf is the key for those routes on turf so far...to that, I am looking hard at Dynacielo in the 10th - which I see as the hardes on the card.

Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: spa on November 19, 2006, 06:32:41 AM
I think Bridled Quest will out run his odds. This is a very interesting race. Wonder what the big boys are thinking?????????????????
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: dwnthestretch on November 19, 2006, 10:53:20 AM
Hey newbie here.

I Like Malameeze/Blotto/Preside for my trifecta in the 8th.

Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: Michael D. on November 19, 2006, 01:16:11 PM
$54

outran the odds to say the least.

great pick.
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: dwnthestretch on November 19, 2006, 01:18:33 PM
yeah nice job. how did that figure for you? like i said i am new to thoro-graph
thanks
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: spa on November 19, 2006, 03:05:54 PM
Dwnthestrech,I\'ve been at this for about 50 years. Here goes,use the TG because it will give you a better chance to avoid a bad bet and give you a shot at finding real value. There are other places you can find help so as not to miss a bet. Bridled Quest had a 5fl. gate work 2 days ago.This is after a series of 7 day 4fl. works at Churchill,clipping off 12 second 1/8th of a mile. He had  trouble in every one of his races. TG had his last 3 races at 13,9,and 5,with a 42% chance to pair the 5.........We got the price because of the jock!!!!!
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: davidrex on November 20, 2006, 07:47:14 AM
   Spa,

Great pick.
When you said ,\"you wonder what the BIG BOYS think...Who might that be?
Might you be from N.Y. that you don\'t like the jock?
who ya like today???
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: dwnthestretch on November 21, 2006, 09:37:14 AM
Hi, thanks for the info.  How can you tell there is a 42% chance of getting another 5?  Is this somewhere on the sheets?
Thanks
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: TGAB on November 21, 2006, 12:30:32 PM
Nice hit.

The 42% chance to run another 5 is shown in Thoro-Pattern, upper left of sheet, beneath the race summaries, under the Pair% heading. Briefly, Bridled Quest\'s last three races comprise an off, top, top pattern against its previous 10-1/2 top. Thoro-Pattern shows the percentage category breakdown for other dirt 3yos Oct--Dec with a similar pattern, 97 in this case. For a more detailed explanation of Thoro-pattern go to the Introduction page or click here  
http://www.thorograph.com/introduction.php

It\'s important to note Thoro-Pattern is a general pattern measurement not specific to individual horses.  
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: P-Dub on November 21, 2006, 12:53:06 PM
\"The 42% chance to run another 5 is shown in Thoro-Pattern, upper left of sheet, beneath the race summaries, under the Pair heading\".......TGAB

Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: dwnthestretch on November 21, 2006, 03:03:52 PM
Thanks so is it these? What do they all mean?

Top%  Pair% Off% X%?

Especially OFF and X?
Title: Re: CHURCHILL'S 8TH
Post by: TGAB on November 21, 2006, 03:33:09 PM
Click on the more detailed explanations pointer above.