I haven\'t posted here in awhile so I\'m in for the annual BC picnic. My picks are quite a bit different from Jerry\'s...we\'ll see how that goes. Every year I spend all week looking at the stuff...so this year I\'m doing it QUICK. One look and I\'m done...
Juv. Fillies
In the juvies, I look for horses that are ready to pop, and I\'m usually less crazy about the ones that have already run a huge race. The horse that fits my bill here is...Gatorize (30-1!), who would\'ve been my next Caressing, but she drew HORRIBLY and now I will mostly have to use her under in the exotics. Otherwise I like Octave, Dreaming of Anna, She\'s Included and Her Majesty, in that order...so I\'ll be playing straight tris (just kidding).
Juvenile
I like Great Hunter and I think I\'ll get better than 9/2. Otherwise Pegasus Wind looks like some value to add to tickets with Circular Quay.
F&M Turf
Looks to me like the only value in this race is if Ouija Board runs a little slow off her short layoff...since Wait A While gets weight and looks like she will run well. I can\'t see betting much here. Maybe a little with Wait A While on top of Dancing Edie, My Typhoon and Satwa Queen.
Sprint
Thor\'s Echo looks like a possible upsetter to me. I think I may use Lewis Michael as value under T Echo and the favorites in the exotics too.
Mile
Free Thinking looks nice at 15-1. Will play to win and in exotics with Araafa, Echo of Night and Aragon. I think Gorella may back up a little here...
Distaff
There are others as good as Fleet Indian in here so... Pine Island and Spun Sugar look best...and I will have to spice up my tickets with maybe Pool Land and...Hollywood Story (I guess Happy Ticket may squeeze in under too).
Turf
I figure either Cacique or English Channel should win...but this is another one I won\'t hit too hard because they both should run. TH Approval and Red Rocks (Rush Bay?) may provide some value under.
Classic
I think Premium Tap is the most likely upsetter. Win and under the latest Horse of the Century (2X) and Invasor (1X).
Good luck to all.
HP
good luck HP, and welcome back ...
Juv Filly: Dreaming of Anna - like the '11', '8', '7' pattern (without really being used). Would feel confident in a run in the '2-3' range if the race was on turf, but eligible to run fast on dirt as well (maiden race wasn't bad). Full bro, Michael Lewis, faster on dirt.
Juvy: C P West - a bit slow coming in, but the colt runs like he wants to go longer. By Came Home, stamina on bottom. Great jock, perfect post, long odds. BTW, Gary Stevens saying that if there was one horse that could make him come out of retirement to ride, it would be Circular Quay.
F&M Turf : Film Maker - consistent, solid filly. Expecting a run in the '2" range. Nice draw. Ouija Board is the most likely winner, especially from post 2, and Wait a While is the second most likely winner. Low odds the issue for both horses. Going with FM at long odds, hoping she can split the favorites.
Sprint: Henny Hughes - negative '3.5' top. expecting a move forward here, which would make him too tough.
Mile: need to see the turf condition, but the key will be a long shot that drew well....... looking for value - silent name & echo of light.
Distaff: Spun Sugar - looking for a negative '1' to win this. Toss the poly race last. the win at Saratoga was good enough to put her right there in this one. Decent post, not sure about the jock. Pine Island might have a problem getting up at 9f, especially in the big field, but she drew perfectly, and at 6-1, they sure are making it tempting to put this filly on top. Still, it's Spun Sugar at long odds.
Turf : Hurricane Run has been facing better, and I can't find any value on the Americans. Scorpion as well.
Classic: Bernardini - negative '3.75' top. Expecting a move forward here, which would make him too tough. No value at 11/10, but I'm not picking anything else.
Here\'s my key horses for Saturday. I won\'t play the Juv. Fillies.
Juvenille - Stormello
F & M Turf: Mauralakana
Sprint - Siren Lure (Trevor calls out : \"And here\'s Siren Lure Like an express train! He\'s Home Jerome\"
Mile - Araafa
Distaff - Pool Land
Turf - Red Rocks
Classic - Using three in here: Suave, George Washington and Lava man.
Juv. Fillies - wide open, pass.
Juv Colts - Scat Daddy
F&M Turf - Film Maker
Sprint - Bordonaro
Mile - Gorella
Distaff - Spun Sugar, Fleet Indian
Turf - Go Deputy
Classic - Bernardini, Lawyer Ron.
I think there\'s a live key in the BC Fillies--JB and I do not share the same opinion though.
Juvie Fillies-- too tough for me
Juvie Colts-- Stormello\'s trainer\'s last 90 day TG stats fascinating
F/M Turf-- Usual suspects (OB, WAW) over longshot Euros (Mauralakana,Satwa Queen)
Sprint-- Henny, Too Much Bling, War Front
Mile-- Araafa,Free Thinking, Echo of Light, Rob Roy
Distaff-- Pine Island, Spun Sugar
Turf-- Scorpion, Red Rocks, Go Deputy
Classic-- Bernardini, throw Lava and Invasor out of gimmicks; use Premium Tap,
David Jr, Lawyer Ron and Giacomo underneath fave
Selections in turf races assume a turf course which is something less than firm
TGAB - It\'s a pretty tricky call , i\'m going with a sheer gut play on sutra in the ph contest but i\'m still not sure about an exact wagering strategy - maybe add quick little miss and ? . . .
no matter how the race turns out , i will feel always feel a little uncomfortable when using 2 yo\'s to \" run back\" too old numbers after they\'ve bounced badly or tailed off from efforts . with 2 yo\'s , i view any problems with patterns or development as an extreme negative - and i keep an open mind things in general .
even though it would stepped on the prices , i had hoped a couple of my pic\'s would have fared better in the TG analysis ... Maybe SF is best longshot of them all - his pattern for this is good where in previous turf attemps it was not and , he is fast .
Current thinking:
Juv Fillies: Dreaming of Anna, cash included (from the man that owns cash call) Take it to the bank
Juvenilles: Street Sense & BOrail plus PLETCHER
F&M Turf Film Maker then Ouija Board
Sprint: Pomeroy,War Front, Henny& Bordonaro...I would have added of improved the chances of Kelly\'s Landing and will inlcude in exotics, but geez draws post 14
Mile: Badge of Ken Ramsey/Aarafa/Miesque\'s approval Box and go...the only Super I will be playing in the race is a \"SUPER FECTA\". Sorry guys can\'t see it, but wish you all the best................................
Distaff: Happy Ticket/Round Pond/Balleto
Turf: Cacique,Hurricane Run/Rush Bay/Scorpion
Classic: 2 scenarios are possible. Bernadini and play huge exacta Key\'s and Super Key\'s or The Balydoyls boys get some payback for the Green Monkey by throwing a Monkey wrench into Bernadini crowning moment, Then I\'ll be looking for Layer Ron get the pletcher auto jumpp up, and give Todd the benefit of the trust me play and add Flower Alley, pleasant Tap, David junior and Sun King underneath. May have to play both scenario\'s as scenario 2 makes me rich....(for a day!)
one last thought....Please remember by the time R10 comes along, many people are looking to bail out/get out big. Many times what is obvious, actually has value as people are reaching for Volponi\"2\"\".
NC Tony
AB,
If you\'re not gonna tell us, at least give us a hint. Otherwise, why say anything at all??
Because he\'s dreaming ofAnna.....
NC Tony
Here are my thoughts. Don\'t have the TG figs yet as I get the hard copy and won\'t see it until tomorrow, so these are subject to some change:
Dream of Anna
Great Hunter, Street Sense
Satwa Queen
Henny Hughes, Pomeroy, Siren Lure
Araafa, Echo of Light, Sleeping Indian
Pine Island, Asi Siempre
Cacique, Scorpion
Bernadini and using Lawyer Ron, Premium Tap, Suave
Am really surprised that I am only one so far who likes Scat Daddy. He\'s Pletcher, 3 lengths faster - what am I missing?
Oh, didn\'t mean to wake him up. Sorry AB.
It\'s late I\'ll talk tomorrow.
I have been looking at these figs for a week, and I am very confident, so here goes
fillies- Her majesty
colts - Street sense - scat daddy
f/m - satwa queen, ouija board, waw
sprint- too much bling, siren lure
mile - echo of light, araafa
distaff- round pound, pine island
turf -TH approval, cacique
classic - lawyer ron, premium tap, bernardini
cash included
great hunter
dancing edie
henny hughes
silent name
fleet indian
hurricane run
bernadini
yes, 2 favs, maybe 3...but playing over/under my next 4 selections for a simple day of not \"overthinking\". by the way, at what point does a euro horse become an american horse - 4 starts? 5? 1?
NCT - Blame it on the \'Kelly\'s ... - post 14 definately s#cks . The other one you didn\'t like got the rail and Thor is a bounce saturday no matter which gate he breaks from .
After you had mentioned Kelly\'s Landing the other day , I went to his sheet and thought - hmm , what if ... and with an inside draw Nct is right , this horse does has a big shot to win + Love\'s the course .
Tough call to test Murphy\'s Law on BC Day and not to throw him in there on a p-3/ p-4 play\'s as an insurence policy ...
Usually I change my mind 50 times... I read all these posts and...
Juvenile fillies
This is a good race so I\'m going to be dealing with it right up until the bell... I\'m leaning towards tossing Dreaming of Anna (too short and not really better than A LOT of these). On top I still like Octave and Her Majesty. She\'s Included and Gatorize are probably strictly \"unders.\" I am taking a MUCH more positive view of Sutra, especially given how the race will be run (should be a square pace). Cotton Blossom has a shot but also looks too short...
Juvenile
Street Sense will be running late and drew well...
F&M Turf
A few people seemed to think Film Maker will be value. IMHO, he will be shorter than others that are probably just as good...
Sprint
Price on Too Much Bling? Is Bordanaro \"west coast\" speed? A lot of folks seem to like Siren Lure, which I don\'t see at all.
Mile
Price on Silent Name?
Distaff
After looking at the likely pace scenario here, I downgrade Round Pond, Healthy Addiction and Pool Card... Spun Sugar and Pine Island look better to me. Happy Ticket likes CD, awful draw. So it\'s getting cheaper as I\'m more focused...
So no major changes...which is unusual for me. Good reading on this thread... Thanks to all.
HP
HP - The fillie picture isn\'t any clearer now than it was going into the Oaks . Sutra\'s quasi 0 X O pattern ( on a relative newtonian scale ) easily could be a subtle hint - a big one is coming ...
Also I like Sutra w/ Her Majesty + Quick Little Miss to possibly be my only ex / tri box 3x for the day but might use Cash Included instead of HM , and I\'m looking at the Mile as well for possible exotics plays with Super Frolic , if I can leave out favorites but that Araafa probably can take\'s some beating on saturday and is difficult to ignore based on his pattern .
I\'m luke warm on Octave and the price - though there\'s another kind of healthy pattern that you know is likely to go forward - but it\'s not a clear read at all for me with that one . last nite oddscheckercom had Sutra at around 12-1 and shortening , today at around 9 -1 aprx ...
I was hoping to get in the 20-1 to 30-1 range for Sutra ...
Juv. Fillies - Appealing Zophie, Her Majesty
Juv Colts - Scat Daddy, Pegasus Wind
F&M Turf - Film Maker, Wait a While
Sprint - Bling, Henny, Thor\'s Echo, Malibu Mint
Mile - Free Thinking, Araafa
Distaff - Pine Island, Spun Sugar
Turf - Cacique, TH Approval
Classic - Invasor, David Junior
give it up Alan.
now.
The first time through a card I\'m looking with the intent of quickly identifying fast and slow horses, a getting acquainted process, before hunkering down to specifics--what figure or range of figures is needed to win, how do the conditions, weight and post, figure into the mix, current form, patterns, etc.
But on the initial scan, I\'m also looking for patterns to jump out at me. Most of the handicappers on this board are experienced sheet readers, but I haven\'t seen or read any comments about what I\'ll term \"click\" horses, that is, horses with patterns that just jump out. Something just clicks when you look at the line. Now this can\'t be forced. The pattern either jumps out or it doesn\'t. It\'s a subconscious reaction and something we can\'t necessarily explain, not initially anyway. It\'s a function of looking at lots and lots sheets. Over the course of years of ROTWs, JB pattern discussions, and board contributers\' pattern discussions as well, we\'ve picked up a lot of information which gets processed and refined and even if we\'re not aware, we intuitively look at patterns and adjudge quickly, at times.
Now these jump ups don\'t always run--I can have a bad read. And they won\'t necessarily win, especially if the talent level is too low and the conditions are not propitious. And frankly a lot of times in the past after a more extended analysis, I\'ve ended talking myself out of a play--not this time though.
The one horse that clicked when I first saw it was----Quick Little Miss.
Toss the first 2 races--look at the last three--bang, bang, bang. I went back to look at her last, the Oak Leaf BC, and while she got beat handily, she ran well. The jump ups are bite-size in quick succession and now she has 5 weeks into this. Dynamic is a word I use occasionally in the ROTW and this pattern, the last three races, epitomizes this. We put figures to paper, two dimensionally reckoning a horse\'s form, but obviously, these are mortal beings and form is fluid, something which at times the two dimensional verisimilitude can\'t accurately represent.
Halleluah--I put my hand over those last three and I can feel an invisible current pulsing health and vigor. Again this feel, this intuitive read, can\'t be forced. It\'s not Like Scorpion say, who could run, but looking at the line and other info, I\'m still not sure he will run.
Now as I said earlier JB and I disagree which is not to say he doesn\'t think it can\'t run--he does but it comes down to percentages and as he says in the seminar, QLM has developed a lot already and each successive new top decreases the likelihood of another. He thinks a bounce is much more likely. Moreover there are lots of others as fast or faster.
Anyway QLM is my key. JB is playing the race differently and he certainly could be right.
QLM hits my ticket. i can picture a nice late run.
have to appreciate that the forward pattern follows the stretch out in distance. freud over an unbridled mare perfect.
post 13 worries ... i see four closers inside of post 13. court might not get the chance to tuck in.
btw, the fav, cash included, should get the dream trip here. 1 is speed, and 2 is a closer. cory should get CI to the rail without a problem.
thanks Alan.
I assume it\'s the bounce potential that turns people off of Scat Daddy, but this would make more sense to me if he was going to be odds on, and you\'re just looking for a decent excuse to toss him. I would expect 7-2 or better and there are just too many positives on this guy not to use him.
Last year First Samurai ran a 1 in August setting a 9.5 pt top and paired it up 3 weeks later; then paired ones again 3 weeks apart in October. Freak, maybe, but I\'ll take the chance that, like the rest of the breed, 2yr olds are generally getting faster and that the Champagne race is at his level now. Even if I give him a 50% chance to run like absolute crap, no pun intended, I\'ll take the odds... notwithstanding the Beyer jinx.
Mo tend to agree a little. Need some value however.
I may be the only who saw this, or maybe not, but in his three previous races he was always inside. The Champagne he raced OUTSIDE and finished full of run.
If Gomez can save ground early, steer outside turning for home he may be a Point Given who gets there.
But he needs to be 5-1 or more.
Alan, I like the pick, however, you also get the \"Beyer Curse.\"
http://www.drf.com/news/article/80166.html
Good luck to all.
Race 1 - Annika Lass, Trippi Street, Hot Storm
Race 2 - Wiggins, Its No Joke, Latent Heat
Race 3 - Cotton Blossom, Dreaming Of Anna, Her Majesty
Race 4 - Street Sense, Circular Quay, King Of The Roxy
Race 5 - Satwa Queen, Wait A While, My Typhoon
Race 6 - Too Much Bling, War Front, Henny Hughes
Race 7 - Araafa, Badge Of Silver, Free Thinking
Race 8 - Pine Island, Spun Sugar, Happy Ticket
Race 9 - Scorpion, Cacique, Go Deputy
Race 10 - David Junior, Bernardini, (Premium Tap, Lawyer Ron, Suave, Sun King)
Good Luck....
Very Subtle Morner Maggie Slew True and True
Ack Ack Greeley\'s Galaxy Awesome Twist Straight Line
Juv Fillies Dreaming of Anna Her Majesty Cash Included
Juv Colts Circular Quay Scat Daddy Pegasus Wind
Sprint Henny Hughes Kelly\'s Landing Bordonaro
Mile Aussie Rules Aragorn
Filly & Mare Fleet Indian Asa Siempre
Classic Bernardini Invasor Suave
i am the king, thanks tg
Thank you
thank you
happy wife
happy life
ODE TO T.G.
I won\'t redboard;so just let me throw praises to a couple of gents that made my Cup Day a most rewarding day in both handicapping and wagering.
I\'ve been very fortunate the last two months,and much credit must now be afforded to THORO-GRAPH and a gentleman I\'ve never met; David Sklansky.
Mr. Sklansky writes books on chess and poker.
Mr. Brown writes poetry with numbers.
Buy the graph and read the books:you will be empowered with both wisdom and how to execute the numbers in a way that will keep you in the black.
Unfortuneatly I\'m still very superstitious and may never do another ROTW after my good fortune a couple weeks ago. .....is there a book I can read on superstitions?
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Current thinking:
>
>
> Juv Fillies: Dreaming of Anna, cash included (from
> the man that owns cash call) Take it to the bank
Bang
>
> Juvenilles: Street Sense & BOrail plus
> PLETCHER
>
BANG
> F&M Turf Film Maker then Ouija Board
>
BANG
> Sprint: Pomeroy,War Front, Henny&
> Bordonaro...I would have added of improved the
> chances of Kelly\'s Landing and will inlcude in
> exotics, but geez draws post 14
>
MISS
> Mile: Badge of Ken Ramsey/Aarafa/Miesque\'s
> approval Box and go...the only Super I will be
> playing in the race is a \"SUPER FECTA\". Sorry guys
> can\'t see it, but wish you all the
> best................................
>
BANG BANG
> Distaff: Happy Ticket/Round Pond/Balleto
>
BANG BANG BANG
> Turf: Cacique,Hurricane Run/Rush Bay/Scorpion
>
WIFF
> Classic: 2 scenarios are possible. Bernadini and
> play huge exacta Key\'s and Super Key\'s or The
> Balydoyls boys get some payback for the Green
> Monkey by throwing a Monkey wrench into Bernadini
> crowning moment, Then I\'ll be looking for Layer
> Ron get the pletcher auto jumpp up, and give Todd
> the benefit of the trust me play and add Flower
> Alley, pleasant Tap, David junior and Sun King
> underneath. May have to play both scenario\'s as
> scenario 2 makes me rich....(for a day!)
>
IF ONLY PLEASANT TAP GETS SECOND..BETTER YET WIN
> one last thought....Please remember by the time
> R10 comes along, many people are looking to bail
> out/get out big. Many times what is obvious,
> actually has value as people are reaching for
> Volponi\"2\"\".
>
> NC Tony
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Current thinking:
> > F&M Turf Film Maker then Ouija Board
> BANG
I guess you boxed it.
>
>>
> > Mile: Badge of Ken Ramsey/Aarafa/Miesque\'s
> > approval Box and go...the only Super I will
> be
> > playing in the race is a \"SUPER FECTA\". Sorry
> guys
> > can\'t see it, but wish you all the
> > best................................
> >
> BANG BANG
Trying to figure out how you \"BANGED\" this one when you don\'t mention the Place horse.
>
> > Distaff: Happy Ticket/Round Pond/Balleto
> >
> BANG BANG BANG
Awesome hit, nice job.
>
> >
> > NC Tony
> >
Nice call on Street Sense too Tony, I had that one nice and ended the P3 with that race. Its No Joke was an absolute standout at 3-1 in the 2nd, combined with both Juvenile races paid a very nice $315 for a buck. Unfortunately, that was the last race I hit all day.
NCT, nice job
Knowing that my record in the BC was horriblly embarassing, I decided to take a different approach this year. I decided it would be \"longshot day\" as usual, and so kowing that most of my picks would get screwed some way or another, I did the following:
Bet $50 win on Bordonero
Bet $50 WP on Go Deputy.
I cashed on the FM turf betting FM to win and saving underneath the other 3 who were in the $. $50 got me $166. Invested $64 in the pick 6, got 2 winners.
After I was dead in the P6, I decided that the rail was good and Brother Derek would be a good play considering his Derby and the post for the Classic. Lawyer Ron was also a great price and an early pick, so I tapped out on both.( A place finish by either would put me up for the day). They ran exactly as I thought they would ( 1-2 around the track) but no finish. But good betting, so next year I might just cash on the P6. I\'m long over due.......
Hats off to NC Tony, who topped this thread as far as I can see. HP
Looked like a morgue at the Pletcher barn. TAP told the press it was a good BC day, the barn won $2.1 million. I know he\'s smarter than that cause his owners bruised egos could give a rats ass about running second/third regardless of the \"chump change\"won.