Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on October 30, 2006, 03:46:14 PM

Title: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: TGJB on October 30, 2006, 03:46:14 PM
Pomeroy finished eighth by 8 lengths in last Year\'s Vosburgh as the favorite. In his last start he won the G I Forego at Saratoga by 2 lengths. According to Ragozin, which effort earned the bigger figure?

Answer: the Forego, but only by half a point. In other words, Ragozin has Pomeroy\'s up-the-track effort in the Vosburgh as good enough to win this year\'s Forego.

I\'ll probably come up with a couple more of these, but I\'m taking off for Louisville Thursday and have to finish the seminar before then. Too bad, because there is a lot of comedy in them there \"SHEETS\".
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: Michael D. on October 31, 2006, 06:51:39 AM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pomeroy finished eighth by 8 lengths in last
> Year\'s Vosburgh as the favorite. In his last start
> he won the G I Forego at Saratoga by 2 lengths.
> According to Ragozin, which effort earned the
> bigger figure?
>
> Answer: the Forego, but only by half a point. In
> other words, Ragozin has Pomeroy\'s up-the-track
> effort in the Vosburgh as good enough to win this
> year\'s Forego.
>
> I\'ll probably come up with a couple more of these,
> but I\'m taking off for Louisville Thursday and
> have to finish the seminar before then. Too bad,
> because there is a lot of comedy in them there
> \"SHEETS\".


Jerry,

reason for the discrepancy? i think it\'s because TG has the \'05 vosburgh slower than Ragozin and the \'06 forego faster (adjusted for figure drift, which i think was about 3.5 points in sprints in \'05).

go back to the \'05 BC. if you remember, taste of paradise, the horse that \"got stopped\" and came flying to lose by a head, was the best at 12-1, and lion tamer came in third at 12-1. both horses came out of the vosburgh, the race Ragozin has faster than TG.

more of the difference lies in the \'06 race, but did you want the \'05 vosburgh figure faster or slower heading into the BC last year?

and feel free to correct any mistakes i made, just did this from memory.


Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: P.Eckhart on October 31, 2006, 07:58:27 AM
Because the Forego was slow and Ragozin did it strictly tick tock.
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: miff on October 31, 2006, 08:15:11 AM
Have not seen them yet, but can\'t wait to see the Frizette TG figs.
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: TGJB on October 31, 2006, 10:01:11 AM
Michael-- do you seriously think Pomeroy ran well enough in the Vosburgh to win the Forego? I would be real surprised if any figure maker other than Ragozin has those performances anywhere near each other.

Just to be clear-- we\'re not comparing the winners of the two races. We\'re comparing the performance of a horse that was beaten 8 lengths in one with that of the winner of the other.
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: Michael D. on November 01, 2006, 07:17:44 AM
i\'d like to know the correct relationship between the two races.

as for the Forego, i\'m going with the faster TG #.
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: TGJB on November 01, 2006, 10:00:31 AM
Michael-- there are no answers in the back of the book, which is why figure makers get ulcers and take take acid blockers. But I\'m comfortable with Pomeroy\'s figures.
Title: Re: Half-Hearted Pop Quiz
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on November 01, 2006, 08:06:45 PM
Me too!!!!!!!

NC Tony