Obviously, the post position draw will affect final decisions, but some early thoughts on the breeders cup races (6 days out, and foaming at the mouth for the best day of action for horse players)
Juvenile Fillies - Looks like Mistical Plan won\'t get in, which is a shame, because she would have been very interesting on the stretchout, off the paired up \"4\'s\". Cash Included is formidable, but will be no value, so you have to take a shot against. The two that are most interesting to me are Appealing Sophie and Cotton Blossom. Sophie ran a bit of a clunker on the polytrack, but figuring out what to do with that race is a common theme for the Breeders Cup (how to treat strange Polytrack results). Speed has been awful at Keenland and Sophie\'s race before that was very big, albeit on a wet track, which she is well bred for. Cotton Blossom has that \"3\" to run back to and also comes out of the polytrack race. Her \"3\" is one of those results that allows you to get value if you believe the Thorograph figure, as the beyer is in the 70\'s, and the Tgraph figure has her the fastest here. At 15-1 or so, value.
Juvenile Colts - Not a real interesting race to me. Have to hope for the bounce off the big \"1\" from Scat Daddy. Do you want to believe Lukas when he says that Pegasus Wind missed a workout and was not cranked for his last race, in which he ran a \'4\". I expect the horse to improve off the stretchout. He is already one of the fastest and we know that Lukas used to be able get horses ready for the Breeders Cup. At 12-1 or so, Pegasus Wind looks like, especially if saving ground on the lead, assuming track os playing fair on BC day.
F & M Turf - Interesting test of \"visual results\" vs \"figures\". I can\'t help but think that Wait a While is the best horse, as I watched her three blowout turf wins, but her best fig is only a \"3\", which makes her vulnerable here. She will be bet hard and will vie with Ouija Board, who has raced against the best males in Europe. If you trust the figures, you can try to beat them both with Film MAker, at a price. Her \"2\" puts her faster than Wait A While and on par with Oiuja Board\'s best, and she figures a good price. Plus, she has run well in this race the last two years and should be overlooked in the win pool. The \"value\", if she gets a ground saving trip. Post position draw is critical for her.
Sprint - Very tough race (aren\'t all the BC races like that?). The first thing that jumps out is that Siren Lure is slow and is a play against in the exotics. Henny Hughes is very fast and figures short, but I don\'t know if he has faced the type of trip he will get here. They will be flying early and HH will be hard used to stalk the pace. Bordanaro, if 2nd choice, is probably not value, but PVal on speed is certainly tempting. The \"value\" plays are probably Commentator and Dubai Escapade. Not sure if Commentator will ever get back to those negative 5\'s, but the last race is probably a throwout. Have to worry if Commentator can stalk and pounce, as all his wins are \"wire to wire\". And the price may not be as good as it should be, because the horse has a \"reputation\". Don\'t like the fact that the connectionos of Dubai Escapade are still undecided about a start, but I have always like fillies in the sprint, as they have done well historically, when they \'figure\', like Dubai Escapade does. Her tops of negative 3 are right on par with HH and she gets a little weight. Don\'t know if she can stalk a super hot pace and still finish and don\'t think she can outfoot Bordanor early, but at 15-1 or better, I will probably pay to find out. I am thinking Kelly\'s Landing at 40-1 is usable in the exotics as well. Has had excuses in several races and runs well at Churchill. Probably won\'t win, but would spice up exotics.
Mile - Trip always matters in this race. I guess Badge of Silver, if drawing a good post and making the lead, can be dangerous for Frankel off the long layoff. Gorella is probably the horse to beat off her latest, but she will need to save ground and get the right trip. Miesque\'s approval has that big figure at Monmouth and he may need more time to be able to run back to it, but at 30-1, is certainly usable. Aragorn is another who has been visually impressive and figures to be tough to beat if he gets the right trip, but as the favorite, with several as fast, I can\'t use the horse as a key. Good race to spread out in the pick 4.
Distaff - There has been enough time since Pool Land\'s big negative 2 at Keenland, such that the time could be right for a run back to it. Her last was good and she gets 7 weeks into this one, which gives her every right to be run her best. Her tactical speed is a plus, as she should save ground, near the lead. The price will be right as well, as I would expect 10-1 or better. The \"value\" play and a live longshot.
Turf - Not a good betting race IMO. Cacique and English Channel will be short and are fastest. My feeling is that Cacique is better at shorter distances, so English Channel is the most likely winner. I might use TH Approval with the horses that figure, to try and get value. Hurricane Run looks out of form, and another race on short rest, can\'t help. Should be first time in years that Euro\'s don\'t own this race. Go Deputy would contend, but 2 weeks rest makes him a throwout for me.
Classic - Tough to bet against Bernardin with any confidence. What a shame we will never see Discreet Cat against Bernardini, as that would be special. Lava Man is the obvious \"throw out\" in an attempt to get any value, but I doubt the horse goes off short, as I expect the horse to be 7-1 or higher. If Invasor goes higher than 6-1 or 7-1, which is unlikely, he might be worth a win bet, since his best is as good as Bernardini\'s best. The problem is that Bernardini gives every indication that he can run faster than he already has. Super Frolic has been lousy this year and not even sure if the horse will run in the turf race or here, but I am giving up on him, even in the superfecta (but I am still grateful he spiced up last year\'s superfecta!!) Premium Tap is probably a horse that can be in the Super and be value, although I would be surprised to see the horse win (actually shocked, is the right word).
Thoughts?
Jim
Jimbo-- as it happens I was writing up the FM Turf last night, and WAW gets almost a point of weight from her elders. The draw is going to make a big difference in several races, particularly the 2 turn races without much early speed. This ain\'t Belmont.
Using racingpost.co.uk numbers OB has a one point advantage over WAW including WAW\'s weight allowance off of their last races.
Jimbo:
As always, a well thought out analysis. How have the referees and placekickers been
treating you?
The race I would like to focus on is the F&M Turf, which features Wait a While,
who has been brilliant over a short career, and Ouija Board, who has been equally
brilliant over an extended career.
Wait a While-- has been untested in her 3 turf wins this year. The outcome of
these 3 races was determined at the 3/8ths pole, and she was not really
persevered with thereafter. The implication is that she could have run faster if
she had needed to. (Where is Classhandicapper to debate the effect of the
ease of her wins on the numbers she earned?) That being said, she takes a huge step up
in class on Saturday and IMO is a possible winner, but offers little value at likely odds of
5/2. WAW has also never been tested on anything other than firm going.
Ouija Board-- the oft repeated logic in past years, as racing has become
increasingly global,has been that excursions to
distant and exotic racing destinations tends to set horses
back four to six months. On November 27 of 05, OB was in Tokyo.
2 weeks later, she raced in Hong Kong. On March 25 of 06, she raced
in Dubai. On April 23, she made a return visit to Hong Kong. All
OB did after this extensive and unconventional Fall/ Winter campaign
was to return for a Spring/ Summer campaign during which she came
up against and held her own against the best turf males in Europe.
In a post a couple of months back, Michael D mentioned that OB might be compromised
by CD\'s tight turf turns,but OB prevailed at Lone Star 2 years back
on a similar course.
The big question for OB: How much is left in the tank for this, her likely last career start.
Film Maker--yes she is as fast as any of these, but she has been outfinished by Honey Ryder
twice and OB twice.Although she was wide in the Flower Bowl, and Honey Ryder saved ground,
my impression was that FM had every chance to get by HR, but couldn\'t. Trainer Motion\'s
runners always seem to show up on BC Day.
Longshots: Two young lightly raced daughters of Muhtathir.(A) Mauralakana, a 3YO
from Biancone who seemed to have a rough go in Keeneland\'s QE II from post 11
and should love added ground. No number power, and hence a huge price. (B) Satwa
Queen (improvement noted after six month freshening after Dubai races, posting
TG 2 and TG 3 in last 2 Euro starts).
I see what everyone is saying about WAW , solid and that last race , a 1/2 pt top could mean there\'s more . Satwa Queen does look promising + Biancone seems golden in these big spots .
I wouldn\'t mind taking a shot w/ something like My Typhoon to win at 40-1 or better if possible and 3 horse box MT w/ WAW , SQ . Maybe use Gorella , WAW , SQ + possibly other favorites to protect if going with a Win Bet as the main play - but I doubt MT will be in the 40-1 to 80-1 range , though that would be nice .
Maybe if Jerry or one of you kind Fellows could lease me one of those Devils ( if there is such a thing as a spare devil ) - just make it a Devil In A Blue Dress this time please - so I can get 99-1 on my win bet + 20k tri...
I am loving that race, I like the pattern of Satwa Queen, looks like one of the best of the day to me.
The thing about the CD turf course is the sand base on which some turf runners do not perform their best. Off the pace types have generally fared well at CD and no rain is expected.As far as WAW being a little slow on TG, there is some question when looking at other data. Slow is not what any visual of her efforts would lead one to conclude.Her late internals are far superior to any of the US runners, don\'t have them for the euros.
It is reported that OB has been more pointed to this race this year.Should be a great race if all run to their capabilities and get decent trips.Someone who follows the euros thinks that OB has never fired her best shot in any of her US races.
The races friday at CD may be helpful in trying to see how the surfaces are playing providing they don\'t scrape on Sat.
Mike
Rich,
I was listening to a show this past weekend and Alan Shuback, the DRF foreign correspondent, likes both Satwa Queen and Scorpion. He thinks they both have good shots at nice prices.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
>
> As always, a well thought out analysis. How have
> the referees and placekickers been
> treating you?
>
> The race I would like to focus on is the F&M
> Turf, which features Wait a While,
> who has been brilliant over a short career, and
> Ouija Board, who has been equally
> brilliant over an extended career.
>
> Wait a While-- has been untested in her 3 turf
> wins this year. The outcome of
> these 3 races was determined at the 3/8ths pole,
> and she was not really
> persevered with thereafter. The implication is
> that she could have run faster if
> she had needed to. (Where is Classhandicapper to
> debate the effect of the
> ease of her wins on the numbers she earned?) That
> being said, she takes a huge step up
> in class on Saturday and IMO is a possible winner,
> but offers little value at likely odds of
> 5/2. WAW has also never been tested on anything
> other than firm going.
>
> Ouija Board-- the oft repeated logic in past
> years, as racing has become
> increasingly global,has been that excursions to
> distant and exotic racing destinations tends to
> set horses
> back four to six months. On November 27 of 05, OB
> was in Tokyo.
> 2 weeks later, she raced in Hong Kong. On March 25
> of 06, she raced
> in Dubai. On April 23, she made a return visit to
> Hong Kong. All
> OB did after this extensive and unconventional
> Fall/ Winter campaign
> was to return for a Spring/ Summer campaign during
> which she came
> up against and held her own against the best turf
> males in Europe.
>
> In a post a couple of months back, Michael D
> mentioned that OB might be compromised
> by CD\'s tight turf turns,but OB prevailed at Lone
> Star 2 years back
> on a similar course.
>
> The big question for OB: How much is left in the
> tank for this, her likely last career start.
>
> Film Maker--yes she is as fast as any of these,
> but she has been outfinished by Honey Ryder
> twice and OB twice.Although she was wide in the
> Flower Bowl, and Honey Ryder saved ground,
> my impression was that FM had every chance to get
> by HR, but couldn\'t. Trainer Motion\'s
> runners always seem to show up on BC Day.
>
> Longshots: Two young lightly raced daughters of
> Muhtathir.(A) Mauralakana, a 3YO
> from Biancone who seemed to have a rough go in
> Keeneland\'s QE II from post 11
> and should love added ground. No number power, and
> hence a huge price. (B) Satwa
> Queen (improvement noted after six month
> freshening after Dubai races, posting
> TG 2 and TG 3 in last 2 Euro starts).
>
>
>
>
Richie,
yes, i remember our conversation a few months back.
i wrote:
\"ouija board was awful impressive on wednesday, but i\'m not so sure she towers above this group at the BC distance of 10f (especially running around the tight 7f oval at CD).\"
the race was at 10f last year, and OB came up short. she won the 1 3/8m running at LS in \'04. i forgot they shifted back to 1 3/8m in \'06.
i stick to my original view that she doesn\'t tower over the field while playing the american version of turf racing, but OB has a better chance of winning on class alone with the extra furlong to work with.
Commentator out of sprint. Areyoutalkintome in.
We\'ll be sending out an email on this, but the last number on Satwa Queen is wrong-- should be 3 1/4. Rest of Euro numbers are okay.
Hey!! that line looks a whole lot different to me now, oh well.........
When will hard copy of the Sat CD BC set be in bklyn 69th st.I assume they will be separate(not part of usual simo set)
Michael,
Is that blasphemy? On \"class\" alone? Does class exist? Next thing you will be saying that Wait a While has a \"pace advantage\" :)
I think Wait A While sits the perfect trip, one length off of Dancing Edie, as they go the first half in 49.4. At the 3/4 mile mark Gomez eases her off the rail and she effortlessly gains on Dancing Edie, while not being asked. Gomez waits and waits and waits, and then finally asks her on the far turn and she spurts away into a 23.1 final quarter and is well clear of the field. Ouija Board, having drawn an outside post and getting a very wide trip, closes well, but doesn\'t make the exacta, as she had too much to do late.
Miff-- Alan\'s off today, in tomorrow. I think they will be there Thu. I know sets are being sent to Wagners in Louisville tonight for Wednesday racing, so we\'ll be down there all week.
Jimbo
In your scenario, where do you put My Typhoon? Pressing Dancing Edie?
NC Tony
yea, i can\'t believe i typed that in Jim ...
and after last year\'s f&m, i just might have to make pace a big part of my analysis.
i had film maker on top n boxed with OB.
haven\'t looked too closely at this year\'s yet, but ...
WaW\'s 49% to pair, 28% to top - best pattern of all pre-entrants. the \'3\' at the weights might even get it done, assuming gomez saves the ground. issue is the final 1/8 i guess, but she\'s bred to go all day.
FM looks solid. trip the issue, as it was last year.
OB obviously solid. not only trip, but low odds the worries.
more work to do ...
NC Tony,
You are right, My Typhoon might press the lead as well, leaving Wait a While 3rd. Either way, I don\'t expect a hot pace, which would string out the field and allow for Ouija Board to get a nicer trip (see, I factored \"pace\" in, without blasphemy). But seriously, the strung out fields and faster paces do allow for closers to get better trips and I don\'t see that in this race.
Michael,
I don\'t see making a big win bet on wait A while. You and I have talked, I hate chalk (much more than you do!!). However, I don\'t mind singling Wait a While, at around 3-1 in the pick-4, because I don\'t like favorites in any of the other three legs. I think the Juvy colts and fillies are both wide open, and I think that although Henny Hughes is formidable, i can play others in that race that are prices (although Commentator was one of them and is now dropped out).
I am contemplating the late pick 4 now, as I can\'t decide whether to play against Bernardini or not. There is certainly money to be made betting against him, but I am not sure I can play against him with any kind of conviction.
Jimbo,
Here is what will happen..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1H0ZfbMSpg&mode=related&search=
I hope this link works
NC Tony
Jerry how does this change alter the Thoro-Patern percentages?
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Wait A While sits the perfect trip, one
> length off of Dancing Edie, as they go the first
> half in 49.4. At the 3/4 mile mark Gomez eases
> her off the rail and she effortlessly gains on
> Dancing Edie, while not being asked. Gomez waits
> and waits and waits, and then finally asks her on
> the far turn and she spurts away into a 23.1 final
> quarter and is well clear of the field. Ouija
> Board, having drawn an outside post and getting a
> very wide trip, closes well, but doesn\'t make the
> exacta, as she had too much to do late.
Ouija Board was 2 heads 3rd, coming home in 21.8secs in Honkers QEII Cup
She was -1.5L 3rd in the worlds premiere turf race run in 6.5s under par
She was -2L in the fastest Japan Cup ever and JCups are tarmac quick.
And that\'s just her losing speed! ;-D
Paul,
I understand those closing fractions are fast, but comparing closing fractions from races overseas to here, doesn\'t work (at least for me). Even our \"slow paced\" races, are relatively quickly paced, compared to Europe.
But, I do want Ouija Board to draw outside, just in case......
Anyone have any doubts about the possibilities of at least an honest pace in the F/M Turf after MY TYPHOON worked :59 yesterday. No doubt that jock will be sending.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
totally agree, but the Dist will be MT\'s undoing...
mt\'s not impossible but that fragile pattern is just hanging in there - a really Big price might be incentive enough + a few in there seem to be sitting on peak efforts so mt would need the top ...
All BC post positions drawn and no really bad draws for most of the contenders. Check out bloodhorse.com
Hey what the .......
No one said a word about this one.
it\'s a bute!!
NC Tony
Pletcher says this horse\'s job is to be as a rabbit, but does he really mean as a snail?
Is his job to make the front then slow the race down to 25 and change pace so English Channel can sprint out a finish with Cacique. Or, is he seriously intending Icy to be a genuine G1 pacemaker, which would play into the hands of the european horses.
Probably looking for him to go quick enough to spread the field enough so that they won\'t bunch up going into the final turn.
I\'m thinking he wants to sit the rail and come through as soon as Icy Atlantic lets him through. See his trip at Monmouth (United Nations). That\'s probably the trip they are envisioning for EC and with the hope that CACIQUE will have to go wide.
Good Luck,
Joe B.