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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on October 14, 2006, 11:55:14 AM

Title: Haw 10/14: The Hawthorne Derby
Post by: Michael D. on October 14, 2006, 11:55:14 AM
best of buddies (10-1) - last two solid. fast enough to win with a ground saving trip under 116 lbs. concerned the efforts might take a toll though, especially with only two weeks rest here.

crested (9-2) - should be running late, but might not get the pace set up needed.

sea of trees (6-1) - should also make a decent late run, but also might be compromised by the pace.

arbuckle bandit (6-1) - nice winter campaign, worked from a \'14\' down to \'9\', then popped a \'4\' off the claim. wisely laid up, and seems to be working his way back. gets 6 lbs from the favs, and should save some ground under razo from post 4.

tally up (8-1) - has the fast \'2.5\' sprinting, and a few other competitive figures. should also get the decent trip.

go between (7-2) - nice \'3\' top in the turf cup, then backed up a bit when beating a rather weak field in the va derby. was spent by the arl race and wisely laid up. should run better here with the freshening. gets high weight.

brilliant (5-2) - has the huge top, and a lot of decent figures. might lose a bit of ground as a stalker from post 7, and gets high weight.

creative force (10-1) - \'7\' turf top. outside post.
...

very competitive race. i will key arbuckle bandit at decent odds. solid pattern, nice timing coming in.
Title: Re: Haw 10/14: The Hawthorne Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on October 14, 2006, 03:19:44 PM
Took a brutal beat on this one Michael D.

Just checked in and saw your comments on the race. Played against the favorite with a five dollar box of the (1-4-6) after having mistakenly telling the operator (1-2-6) only to correct myself.

You know the story, the three seperated by a neck with the 2 splitting the 1-4.
 
Came really close to killing the day all day with a few more breaks only to lose about a $150. Eagerly looking forward to Breeders Cup Day and guaranteed BIG PRICES.

Curious to see who TG took in the TC of America. I took the winner with fastest number in the race Polytrack Form.
Title: Re: Haw 10/14: The Hawthorne Derby
Post by: Michael D. on October 14, 2006, 03:33:32 PM
i\'ll tell you SC, i got my money\'s worth just watching this one.

i tossed the two favs, played the 4 with a few, mainly the 1.

i have 12-1 and 18-1 shots battling neck and neck and i get split by the 2 at the wire.

everybody should check the redboard on this one. the $26 winner looked very solid on #\'s. except for the very isolated top, the 3/5 fav looked too slow at the weights.



Title: Re: Haw 10/14: The Hawthorne Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on October 14, 2006, 03:46:34 PM
I wish I could say I got my moneys worth, but since it cost me $750 there isn\'t a whole lot of Television I could turn on live or download that\'s worth that.

At least I haven\'t seen it yet.

You are correct about the winner he was worth a win play. It entered my mind just like the Scott Blasi trained winner of the Ky Cup Sprint three weeks ago with a last race fastest number in the race of 0, at 25-1.

Passed on him too. It won\'t happen again, I guarantee you. EVER.
Title: Re: Haw 10/14: The Hawthorne Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on October 15, 2006, 06:51:44 PM
>Curious to see who TG took in the TC of America. I took the winner with fastest number in the race Polytrack Form.

Nice job with Malibu Mint TGNick. You gave the race a B at odds of 5-2. Malibu Mint paid 7-2 so I have to assume it would have been at least a B+ maybe an A.

Also nice job with Vacare in QE II. This one surely was an A at that price.

The good thing about Polytrack is that now that there is more of it, there is beggining to be more form to base judgements on. Eventually there will be specialists like on the Inner Dirt and trainers will point for Poly. Look out for Poly shippers to.

Also found it very interesting Wayne Lukas trained Pegasus Wind on Poly and then blew out on CD dirt before going to NY. Doug O\'Neil who says he is training Lava Man on Poly before BC Classic may want to take note of that.