The analysis is a little confusing. When you say Gygistar\'s pedigree is distance neutral, do you mean in general or in comparison to the others in the race? His half brother and half sister were better in routes than sprints. Yankee Gentleman\'s full brother was slower at longer distances. The others are not much better. Also, isn\'t Gygistar so much faster than the others that he will probably still win even if he bounces, as long as the bounce isn\'t too terrible?
Gygistar\'s pedigree is distance neutral in general--the two siblings who handled routes were by sires who are very plus distance (Pleasant Colony) and mildly so (Tabasco Cat, from memory). Yankee Gentleman has already run a top at a route. Since he\'s giving away more than a point in weight (about 2 lengths at this distance) Gygistar figures to lose if he runs a 3 or worse, and with ground loss could lose with a 2. Overall, he\'s probably marginally the most likely winner, but an underlay--exactly the kind of horse David will pick in the contest.