is there any stats that show the realitive bounces and regressions coming from horses running on this surface?
most claim, though I am dubious, that its like turf, and turf horses historically recover quicker with less bounces.
Saddle,
Be wary of anyone who thinks they \"know\" anything about Poly and how horses react coming off, going on etc.It\'s too soon for reasonable conclusions.Add to that, the reality that all poly surfaces are not the same and do not play the same. Lastly, at the whim of the track supers they can change the speed of those poly surfaces.
In the past, we had to watch path, wind, moisture etc(maybe we still do). Now it\'s alleged to be up to some track super.Inevitably, there will be some who will look to exploit the \"man made\" conditions of tracks that race on poly, maybe create a self serving bias.I hear it\'s possible.
Mike
I hear the sky is falling to.
Basket,
That\'s too and some believe the sky is also made of poly.
Mike
saddle,
i am in the camp of those who feel turf form/breeding holds up better on poly than dirt form/breeding.
just one guy\'s opinion.
Hey Mike
I treat poly as dirt free of bias. The only trend I noticed over the opening weekend is that horses get very tired. I made two bets of consequence; Untouched Talent and Street Sense. Both were lengths the best but just got a bit winded. The former was outgamed by a 40-1 maiden and the latter was five paths wide the whole way. BBB
What I thought I saw over the weekend at Kee is that the races were run very similarly to turf races in style, with jockeys all wanting to let th other guy take the lead, so you get a winner Asi Siempre (turf horse) beating the likes of Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar closing with an explosive move, But sires like Trippi were winning as were Gone West lineage. They only had 1 wire to wire winner at Kee over the weekend on Poly and that horse had such a class edge over the field.
I would say that you can bet them like any other race, and that you cannot form an opinion on turf vs dirt sires or runner quite yet over the surface. Ive seen it go both ways. Dirt Horses beating good turf horses and good turf horses beating dirt horses. YOu can probably say you will see more turf horses win over this surface than traditional dirt.
NC Tony
Hey Bell,
I\'m very uncomfortable gambling on Poly and just watching for now. I\'ll leave the \"pioneer\" bettors to sort out Poly racing. History recalls that the pioneers are normally found face down with an arrow in their back.
Good Luck
Mike
Some pioneers may have died,but some pioneers also found gold first.
(I\'m a miner forty niner)
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
They only had 1 wire to
> wire winner at Kee over the weekend on Poly and
> that horse had such a class edge over the field.
>
I would imagine Keeneland\'s track super, or perhaps mother nature, will do something to give front end types a better chance the balance of the meet.
The Brisnet library contains two interesting articles on polytrack, by Tim Holland & Rich Nilsen, which discuss the breeding angle. Both are astute cappers & Tim, a former farm manager who is originally from England, knows more about breeding than any other handicapper I\'ve met.
Poly is a brave new world; must be like racing in the old days as speed figures are practically usless right now. Some interesting developments as follows:
10-6 Lordly (65.20) Turf-to-Poly
Bel Air Beauty (96.80) Maiden w/Poly last race
10-7 Fast Point (24.40) Poly last race
Kelly\'s Landing (26.20) 4/28 breeze on Poly
Great Hunter (13.60) 3/21 work on Hol. Poly
10-8 Arteliaco (10.40) breeze on Poly
Poschner (155.20) Turf-to-Poly
Patricia (22.00) Turf-to-Poly
Asi Siempre (11.00) Turf-to-Poly
Will be interesting to follow horses who use the Blue Grass as a Derby prep next year as you may find a in-form dirt horse who hates this stuff be a square price the first Sat. in May!!
For those interested,I had previously read the articles on Poly which Mall referred to.One article disputes that turf runners or turf breds do better on poly with statistics showing just the opposite from a reasonable sample.Dirt bred runners did better.
It seems far too soon to be guided by anything but basic handicapping skills and accurate data.Whats new?
Mike
thanks Mall.
great stuff.
Whether it turns out there is correlation with poly and turf form, or it\'s just a new (third) surface:
You have to wonder if those guys at Keeneland stopped to think about the ramifications for the breeding industry. If half the tracks go to poly, (for example) are the Mr. Prospector line stallions be worth as much?
I think in the future we may see many trainers using Poly for training regardless of which surface the horses race on. It does seem to have a strong conditioning effect while being easier on the legs.
Biancone has been training Gorella exclusively on Poly though she is strictly a turfer. I wonder what other trainers are using this type of "cross training".
Bob
Bob,
Biancone loves to train on the poly for all of his stock.Dickenson has trained on the stuff for a few years too. I still think it\'s too soon to tell if they are legged up more on that stuff.It\'s all the rage today by most accounts. I know that Zito and a few others swear by the heavy dirt surface at the Spa training track for legging one up.It will be interesting to see just how much the poly will reduce the percentage of breakdowns.
Can\'t you just hear the next trainer excuse, \"My horse just hated that poly surface\"
Mike
Mike,
Time will tell the value of Poly as a conditioning surface. However, the evidence is very strong from everywhere it\'s been used, both here and the UK, that it dramatically reduces injuries and breakdowns.
I\'m looking forward to seeing how Gorella does in the BC off her training on it. She has been recording some very fast works though it\'s not a fast surface.
Bob
I think one of the more impressive Keeneland polytrack races I\'ve seen was by turfer Asi Siempre, who dismantled her foes in the Spinster.
Where to go next with AS-- turf, dirt or Pollywood?
Bob,
I believe Gorilla is training at Turfway. I read the Turfway poly surface has been tweaked to make it faster.I kinda think Gorilla is over rated but I have not seen her latest TG fig.I think that sand based turf course at CD is unusually kind to closers, like Gorilla.
That thing of Pletchers(Wait a While) is a freak on the grass and it should be a great race with Ouiji Board and the other Europeans.
Mike
fasteddie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Poly is a brave new world; must be like racing in
> the old days as speed figures are practically
> usless right now. Some interesting developments as
> follows:
>
>
> 10-6 Lordly (65.20) Turf-to-Poly
> Bel Air Beauty (96.80) Maiden w/Poly
> last race
>
>
> 10-7 Fast Point (24.40) Poly last race
> Kelly\'s Landing (26.20) 4/28 breeze on
> Poly
> Great Hunter (13.60) 3/21 work on Hol.
> Poly
>
>
> 10-8 Arteliaco (10.40) breeze on Poly
> Poschner (155.20) Turf-to-Poly
> Patricia (22.00) Turf-to-Poly
> Asi Siempre (11.00) Turf-to-Poly
>
> Will be interesting to follow horses who use the
> Blue Grass as a Derby prep next year as you may
> find a in-form dirt horse who hates this stuff be
> a square price the first Sat. in May!!
FWIW, 9 of the 22 polytrack races at Keeneland this past weekend were won by horses who, apparently, never had sat foot on the surface before.
Only conclusion to draw is there is no conclusion.
jmetro:
not so fast! the turf-to-poly angle is HUGE!!
10-6 Of the 7 races on the poly, ALL were won by horses who either ran or trained on poly,or turfed in last start. I\'m including Pyramid Love, who was eased in the Alabama in her only dirt try for this Biancone turf horse.
10-7 Of the 8 races, 6 were won by poly raced or trained, or went turf-to-poly.
10-8 of the 7 races, 6 were won by poly trained, or went turf-to-poly.
Thats\' 20 of 22, an INSANE statistic any way you slice it!
fasteddie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jmetro:
>
> not so fast! the turf-to-poly angle is HUGE!!
>
> 10-6 Of the 7 races on the poly, ALL were won by
> horses who either ran or trained on poly,or turfed
> in last start. I\'m including Pyramid Love, who was
> eased in the Alabama in her only dirt try for this
> Biancone turf horse.
>
> 10-7 Of the 8 races, 6 were won by poly raced or
> trained, or went turf-to-poly.
>
> 10-8 of the 7 races, 6 were won by poly trained,
> or went turf-to-poly.
>
> Thats\' 20 of 22, an INSANE statistic any way you
> slice it!
>
>
My point was that 9 of the weekend winners, over 40%, had never set foot on the surface before, and not so much the turf to poly angle.
If this angle is working for you that\'s great. I\'m still looking.
Check out the DRF article by Andy Beyer in Fridays DRF.Seems the genius Pres of Keeneland, Nick Nicholson, thinks its great that ONE lay over speedhorse has won on the poly since the Kee meet began.Also there seems to be some veracity that the turf angle does work on poly(some here have posted that also)
Like Beyer said, I wonder what the breeders with hundreds of millions invested in breeding \"speed\" think of frontrunners getting late every race on poly. It just reconfirms that most track managers are clueless. The idea Mr.Nicholson is to have no bias not a closer or speed bias, duh!
Mike
Miff:
Yes, I hear you. But just look at the bright side of it. How about the conditioning that some of these speed types or pace pressers will get out of the BC preps run over the Keenland polytrack or,for that matter,when they ship elsewhere.
The lemmings will see a recent poor effort and ignore. Others may see a horse (or filly/mare) that needed conditioning due to a layoff and proceed accordingly.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
Giving a mulligan for a poor poly effort is going to be a good angle.My point is how can you gamble on that stuff with any conviction?
Good Luck,
Mike
Miff:
I agree. I can only play off of it. Even without Polytrack, my personal plays are 80-20 in favor of turf. IMO,the thoro numbers help clear up a turf world that is very foggy to the average player.
Installing Polytrack in NY (Heaven forbid) would seal the deal for me as far as ever playing dirt races again.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
although guys, if this stuff does hold its form in bad weather, it might be wise for the ny tracks to put it down on the inner ovals.
look at the turf race that was just rained off at Kee (8th race feature, 100k stks). instead of a four horse field over a sloppy track, we have a solid nine horse field over the \"fast\" poly.
think about how many turf races at the spa are decimated because of rain.
Mike D,
Rained off the grass is a small price to pay compared to running on this poly surface that no one has a real clue about from a handicapping standpoint.Some of the poly results at Kee defy any logic and I\'m talking about stake type runners.
Mike
Over time the thoro numbers will help clear up the poly world. Give it time. No realistic conclusions can be made based on this Kee meet. This is just the beginning of the transition period.
Sorry Gents
Without reading down you guys are bunch of whiners.
You have choices so obviously you don\'t want to bet Poly- thats cool. Some folks never liked to play KEE for whatever excuse they came up with. NY & CD & CAL&GP may be the only place the northeaster handicapper will play anymore. It is your money to do with as you please.
As a handicapper I find it challenging to master the new element and hopefully benefit with a huge finacial windfall while all the whiners and nay sayers bitch and moan, especially against those who don\'t adapt soon enough.
I found betting Polytrack no different than betting Dirt or turf, or any other race for that matter. Each surface at each track has it\'s own nuiances including WET DIRT. You always have to adopt to the events of the day and the way the surface is playing.
So quit feeling sorry for yourselves. It\'s a surface that horses run on. Saratoga plays different than AQU inner, ETC most don\'t seems to complain about that. Gulfstream has it\'s issues too. We could go on and on.
It\'s not that big of a deal.
NC Tony
PS I always find it funny, that Andy Beyer is a dope until someone finds a point they agree with
PSS I\'m heading to Keeneland for the weekend..
\"I found betting Polytrack no different than betting Dirt or turf, or any other race for that matter. Each surface at each track has it\'s own nuiances including WET DIRT. You always have to adopt to the events of the day and the way the surface is playing.\"
Tony,
You must be a handicapping genius, very few serious players have found Kee poly to be \"no different\" than betting dirt or turf. As far as Andy Beyer you never saw me post a negative. I sat near him at SPA two years ago and he only won about 140k in two days.
Anyway, good luck at Kee.
Mike
Miff,
It is a matter of adaptation. Speed Figs are Speed Figs regardless of Surface Yes/no?
When I go into a race track or simulcast with a complete open mind I always do better then when I go in with a pre concieved concepts. I have theories, but I adapt.
Sorry if I grouped you into the anti-Beyer group I just see it so often.
I just love it when good handicappers are confused. There is money to be had.Turf horses and dirt horses in the same race are equals, usually that is hard to fathom. TG figs have held up pretty well. Drop the DRF or whatever and just look at Speed figs.....
I hit the first runner opening day at KEE which paid $63.00 the exacta came up a little light. None of the principles changed on how to evaluate and bet the race, you just had to adapt to not looking at speed first which has become the current MO fore most players. At times you hadto look at the reverse and how speed would collapse? Not that hard of a concept. As for breeding, I think it\'s still the same sires which have shown versatility on multiple surfaces.
The Storm Cat- Mr Prospector line Norhter Dancer lineage, Danzig, Gone West- Ellusive quality have all done well.
Finally I am no genious, I just don\'t think it\'s so hard to adjust to poly as everyone is making it out.
NC Tony
Way to put words on paper Tony.
It\'s really refreshing to read messages from someone so smart and sees the glass as half FULL!
I\'ll bet my butt that Jerry\'s putting ALOT into tricking the polygraph!
take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it poured yesterday and they had to take the $125g valley view off the turf. in the old days, this race would have been scratched down to a few horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:
Race 9
Race has been taken off the turf course and will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
No horses have been scratched.
#11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
#13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run
....
is this true - the race gets rained off and they get MORE horses?
anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt, turf, and poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse player would be upset.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it
> poured yesterday and they had to take the $125g
> valley view off the turf. in the old days, this
> race would have been scratched down to a few
> horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:
>
>
> Race 9
> Race has been taken off the turf course and will
> be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
>
> No horses have been scratched.
>
> #11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
> #13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run
>
> ....
>
> is this true - the race gets rained off and they
> get MORE horses?
>
> anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt, turf, and
> poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse player
> would be upset.
>
In the old days this race never would have come off the turf, would it? I, for one, have been disappointed with the number of turf races carded at KEE this meet (many days w/ only one race carded for turf) & I remember KEE being one place where they very rarely came off the grass, let alone a stks. Am I just mis-remembering because I haven\'t been able to get on board w/ the Poly....?
manning Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it
> > poured yesterday and they had to take the
> $125g
> > valley view off the turf. in the old days,
> this
> > race would have been scratched down to a few
> > horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:
> >
> >
> > Race 9
> > Race has been taken off the turf course and
> will
> > be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
> >
> > No horses have been scratched.
> >
> > #11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
> > #13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run
> >
> > ....
> >
> > is this true - the race gets rained off and
> they
> > get MORE horses?
> >
> > anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt,
> turf, and
> > poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse
> player
> > would be upset.
> >
>
>
>
> In the old days this race never would have come
> off the turf, would it? I, for one, have been
> disappointed with the number of turf races carded
> at KEE this meet (many days w/ only one race
> carded for turf) & I remember KEE being one
> place where they very rarely came off the grass,
> let alone a stks. Am I just mis-remembering
> because I haven\'t been able to get on board w/ the
> Poly....?
>
>
>
i\'m not in lexington, so i\'m not sure if this race would have come off in the past. fair point though, one has to consider the added likelihood of races being taken off the turf when discussing the issue.
let\'s keep an eye on the stats going forward.
Some observations:
There has been an unusually high number of grass-raced horses running on poly at Keeneland; could it be that horses with good turf-strides are better suited to this surface? As a side-benefit, the \"off-the-turf\" races WILL stay full; good for betting, and good for track handle, which leads to----
Handicapping?? I have found (so far) it\'s best to evaluate a poly race as if it were a grass race; i.e., fewer wire-jobs, and more stalker-closer types.
Throw out any horse who hasn\'t raced or trained on poly, AND hasn\'t tried the grass. Lone exception: in maiden races, give horses with strong grass pedigrees a long look!
some really good ideas flowing on this subject....lets be in the forefront with polygraph #s.
wish I was observant enuf to contribute...but I know smart thinkers when I read their POSITIVE theories.