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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on September 29, 2006, 06:26:58 PM

Title: ROTW
Post by: Michael D. on September 29, 2006, 06:26:58 PM
summer - lbs and post positives. distance neg.

no joke - had the fast negative \'1\' going 1m in feb, stretched out a month later and ran a \'1\'. ran a negative \'1\' going 1m three weeks ago  ..........

papi - gets weaker as the distances get longer. has better timing for this though.

a p - low odds the issue. i think he will make a nice run though.

kid grind - \'2.5\' to start \'06 (forget \'05 turf efforts). next a \'tu\', but next a nice \'1\' running well late in a 9f race. turf next - toss, last was ok going shorter in the slop. looking for a \'0\' at 10f.

nolan - very nice \'0\' going the distance. what happened last though ??

flame - nice runs going 9f. should get the 1w/1w trip. contender, but i think i\'m with others.
....

more tomorrow.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: spa on September 29, 2006, 06:55:36 PM
A great betting race, exacta box The Cat and The Texan.............small field, big price
Title: Re: ROTW-Where is Super Frolic
Post by: Silver Charm on September 30, 2006, 06:38:18 AM
TGJB,

Why is not back here defending his title.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Michael D. on September 30, 2006, 07:40:45 AM
yep, if the track is dry, i\'m going to have to take a shot against the speed here. if the outside horse does get to the rail, and manages to carve out reasonable fractions, i could see him winning. ROTW likes him as well, but i will focus on kid grindstone.


i\'m looking for a \'0\' or so to win this, which would only be 2.5 points of development this year for KG. his \'1\' going 9f at AP was a nice race imo, and i don\'t see either of the two efforts since taking too much of a toll. my key at decent odds, box with a p and nolan.




Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 30, 2006, 07:55:48 AM
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> yep, if the track is dry, i\'m going to have to
> take a shot against the speed here. if the outside
> horse does get to the rail, and manages to carve
> out reasonable fractions, i could see him winning.
> ROTW likes him as well, but i will focus on kid
> grindstone.
>
>
> i\'m looking for a \'0\' or so to win this, which
> would only be 2.5 points of development this year
> for KG. his \'1\' going 9f at AP was a nice race
> imo, and i don\'t see either of the two efforts
> since taking too much of a toll. my key at decent
> odds.
>
>

God I hate to be backing the same horse as Michael. That hasn\'t worked out since, What was his name? Declan\'s Moon!

JK, saw your rundown post my race evaluation. He\'s definitely running hard now on dirt. He\'ll need to take to the track but he did beat a horse during his good steak by the name of Three Hour Nap thats not a half bad horse and one Summer Book couldn\'t handle. Previous races are relative but not getting the vibes that Summer Book can route like this.

As far as the outside horse clearing and winning, agree he is a threat and should probably be included in the exotics. This is not his home track however and he\'s facing real distance this time. His ability to steal will be dependant upon how easily they let him off. Summer Book, Its No Joke and Papi Chulo are not one run horses and they won\'t let him get far. He can run, but will he be able to hide? I\'m guessing not. Head to head, i\'m taking Greg Norman\'s horse this time.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Michael D. on September 30, 2006, 08:08:58 AM
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> God I hate to be backing the same horse as
> Michael. That hasn\'t worked out since, What was
> his name? Declan\'s Moon!
>
> JK, saw your rundown post my race evaluation. He\'s
> definitely running hard now on dirt. He\'ll need to
> take to the track but he did beat a horse during
> his good steak by the name of Three Hour Nap thats
> not a half bad horse and one Summer Book couldn\'t
> handle. Previous races are relative but not
> getting the vibes that Summer Book can route like
> this.
>
> As far as the outside horse clearing and winning,
> agree he is a threat and should probably be
> included in the exotics. This is not his home
> track however and he\'s facing real distance this
> time. His ability to steal will be dependant upon
> how easily they let him off. Summer Book, Its No
> Joke and Papi Chulo are not one run horses and
> they won\'t let him get far. He can run, but will
> he be able to hide? I\'m guessing not. Head to
> head, i\'m taking Greg Norman\'s horse this time.


haha, good one about declan ... that poor animal. too big, too fast for those legs.

i can see the ROTW interest in summer book. they have him running a pretty solid \'0.5\' going 9f at Haw. if he can match that while getting the extra furlong, he could be right there at decent odds. i think i\'m against him though.





Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: davidrex on September 30, 2006, 08:47:53 AM
Could someone please enlighten me on who William Fox might be?!
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 30, 2006, 09:28:43 AM
davidrex Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could someone please enlighten me on who William
> Fox might be?!


Really don\'t know. He\'s obviously the stand in for Dale Romans. I\'m guessing same vet, same practices. However, those goodies haven\'t been overly productive for Nolan\'s Cat. His main claim to fame is a well beaten third in the Belmont and third in a weak Super Derby, both restricted class races. It will be very interesting to see which fares better. Nolan or A.P. Arrow, the latter now out of the hands of the old Dr. Juice and now in the hands of the younger, improved Dr. Juice.

Of the two I\'d be looking for A.P Arrow to make a better impression. He\'ll probably win, but I\'m taking my chances with him.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: davidrex on September 30, 2006, 10:08:16 AM
ctmc: Hear you loud and clear.This animal ran in Super Derby after busting at Sar. Horse obviously very talented,but with soundness concerns.
Has had two months off;which seems to favor him.Don\'t much like betting ouchy horses,but will make seperation for this horse to jump up just for this race(and me of course!)
Looking for \"kid\",A.P. Arrow,and Its No Joke to fill out the exotics
Say the magic word and win $50!...William Fox
Title: Re: ROTW/ William I Fox
Post by: richiebee on September 30, 2006, 10:36:49 AM
When I worked in Louisiana and Churchill in the 1980s, there was a trainer whose name was William Fox, who trained for a couple of decent owners based in the Midwest.

Fox had at least 2 kids. Two of these kids, Tammy and Bill, became race riders. I think Tammy was/is Dale Romans\' significant other.

William I Fox is either Tammy\'s brother or dad. (I would guess the brother).
Title: Re: ROTW-Where is Super Frolic
Post by: TGJB on September 30, 2006, 10:51:08 AM
SC-- we\'re running in the Goodwood next week. After adjusting for weight (getting it instead of giving it) it\'s not much different a spot, SF would need his top either place to win. This way means not shipping, and it certainly would help him more as a stallion to win a SA GII beating Lava Man than winning a race he has already won.
Title: Re: ROTW/ William I Fox
Post by: Michael D. on September 30, 2006, 12:07:58 PM
not sure if this is correct, but my screen tells me johnny v makes 112 on a p, and guidry rides 5 lbs over (117 now) on nolan. two lengths there.

going to have to make it KG and A P on top now.
Title: Re: ROTW-Where is Super Frolic
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 30, 2006, 12:23:09 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SC-- we\'re running in the Goodwood next week.
> After adjusting for weight (getting it instead of
> giving it) it\'s not much different a spot, SF
> would need his top either place to win. This way
> means not shipping, and it certainly would help
> him more as a stallion to win a SA GII beating
> Lava Man than winning a race he has already won.


Those are nice decisions to have to make and they\'ve been made. In retrospect its very difficult to believe the Goodwood didn\'t come up significantly tougher. Theres some horses in the Hawthorne Gold Cup capable of popping nice looking figures, but they don\'t consistently pop them. Theres only two Grade III winners in the race, Kid Grindstone and Flamethrowintexan. Not that graded wins outweigh good figures, but the paucity of Graded winners in the race is because these horses have not been consistent, excepting Texan. A TFig of 2 could certainly win this race among this bunch at this distance. This was a pillow for Super Frolic, but if he can win that one at the Oak Tree it may help him as a breeder. He certainly could use a win though. Theres no substitute for getting a first under the wire into the horse.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 30, 2006, 02:40:35 PM
Summer book 30-1

Its no joke 8-1

Papi Chullo 4-1

A.P.Arrow 6-5

Kid Grindstone 7-1

Nolan\'s Cat 7-1

Texan 3-1

Pletcher has to move the favorite up ..some of that should happen upon maturity, but is A.P. really a 6-5 horse even factoring Tonic Todd?

Well another significant win for a Distorted Humor. He\'s looking like the heir apparent.

Kid Grindstone was not enough horse.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Michael D. on September 30, 2006, 03:20:10 PM
yep, 6-5 a tad short, but he ran well.

the other closer, kid grind, ran a decent third at 11-1.

the faint-hearted horses, papi and flame, caved in as i thought they might at 10f, but it\'s no joke kept going and beat me. i would have given him a better chance of getting to the \'0\' range or better if he hadn\'t run that fast race just three weeks ago.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on September 30, 2006, 04:11:55 PM
very nice call david

you beat me