Tough race to bet....Lawyer Ron/Point Determined/Strong Contender/Louisborg straight. What will that pay,$40?
spa Wrote:
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> Tough race to bet....Lawyer Ron/Point
> Determined/Strong Contender/Louisborg straight.
> What will that pay,$40?
Can\'t argue with favoring Lawyer Ron.
The race today that intrigues me is the Matron. Cash\'s Girl is a 3/4 sister to Afleet Alex and has the same connections sans Rose. She won first out like any kind.
The favorite would appear to be Pletcher\'s \"Octave\". Whats interesting there is that Velasquez is on the other Pletcher entry. Granted Gomez won the Graded Stakes on Octave last. Not sure Octave relished Belmont last.
Magical Ride will also not have to face her pace nemesis from the last race.
Should be a dilly.
at 1 1/8 the 3 \"fastest\" are easy to spot, but what I find interesting is Louisbourg - nice improvement when stretching out past 1M...lightly raced. \"wore down rival\"...
Why is 11 weeks off for Strong Contender not enough time? Need help understanding why over 2 months still causes \"reaction\"...while lightly raced also, and Ward is a TG guy I believe (he referenced the figs in an interview last week). LR \"reacted\" after each 0...no?
Louisbourg in the 2/3 slot. Plus remember - it\'s Louisiana - there will be some ridiculous longshot in the tri/super.
\"IF\" Louisborg can continue to forge ahead in pattern is a secondary question though he could surprise a few people .
The 1st question is Lawyer Ron\'s soundness and I\'d like to look at all his numbers , not just the recent one - but I figure he\'ll run his race today .
Point Determined\'s last IS a toss but doesn\'t mean he\'ll run his best race now .
What I don\'t like about Strong Contnder is the that 7 pt bounce last time followed a big unsupported top effort .
marcus Wrote:
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> \"IF\" Louisborg can continue to forge ahead in
> pattern is a secondary question .
>
> The 1st question is Lawyer Ron\'s soundness and I\'d
> like to look at all his numbers , not just the
> recent one - but I figure he\'ll run his race today
> .
>
> Point Determined\'s last IS a toss but doesn\'t
> mean he\'ll run his best race now .
>
> What I don\'t like about Strong Contnder is the
> that 7 pt bounce last time followed a big
> unsupported top effort .
>
>
>
Strong Contender is a \"One Timer\" on Tgraph with a figure good enough to win. Unless you factor his Gulfstream One Turn Mile. Personally I discount numbers from Gulfstream at that configuration. He\'s run well fresh and he is fresh. You\'ll see the best he\'s got. I\'m not over enamored with that big figure at one turn in the Dwyer because it was one turn and he beat sprinters there to my eye.
Point Determined is working very well for this, but he\'s not shown sufficient finishing punch to me. That bearing out in the Swaps did not impress me.
Lawyer Ron came back off a layoff and matched his top. He\'s working great. He likes the track. If he doesnt win this at 6-5 i\'ll be stunned.
Everything leading up to Str. Contenders neg.3 is positive.
Rather than discount G.P.,I generally reward any animal that ran well last spring at Keen.
Is there another track that we have had, where we had to make so many adjustments in a horses line?
Obviously his best would beat down this field,and a good effort will win.
Louisborg rewarded his backers last out and will go against Thoro-Pattern.
Bret Calhoun is ready to pick up the tail end of exotics,his so called early lick is probably due more to lack of competition.
davidrex Wrote:
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> Everything leading up to Str. Contenders neg.3 is
> positive.
> Rather than discount G.P.,I generally reward any
> animal that ran well last spring at Keen.
> Is there another track that we have had, where we
> had to make so many adjustments in a horses
> line?
> Obviously his best would beat down this field,and
> a good effort will win.
> Louisborg rewarded his backers last out and will
> go against Thoro-Pattern.
> Bret Calhoun is ready to pick up the tail end of
> exotics,his so called early lick is probably due
> more to lack of competition.
Actually of the three, I\'d look to take a small shot at beating Strong Contender out of third. He\'s picking up more weight than hes run effectively with at a track configuration he\'s not handled very well. I think he\'s a seven furlong/one turn mile horse. The Dwyer race was very slow on a slow variant, but was the track as slow as Tgraph has apparently factored it? Strong Contender ran a slow Haskell on a very quick strip and got beat by Praying for Cash. It all depends upon how much stock one places in his \"One Time\". If you value it highly you\'re likely thinking that after the race he\'ll be a \"Two Timer\".
Also, though it may not be his doing, couldn\'t help but take note that Prado is off Strong Contender and in N.Y. to ride Magical Ride in the Matron and CP West in the Futurity
ctc - At the oddschechecker.com , Lawyer Ron\'s BC Classic odds are in the 16-1 to 25-1 range , do you think we\'ll get this kind of price for him on BC Day ? My gut feeling is he\'ll be around 4-1 max ( on BC Day ) .
Today it looks like your projected LR\'s odds of around 6-5 don\'t offer much value but probably are right where they should be in relation to his chances of winning ...
marcus Wrote:
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> ctc - At the oddschechecker.com , Lawyer Ron\'s BC
> Classic odds are in the 16-1 to 25-1 range , do
> you think we\'ll get this kind of price for him on
> BC Day ? My gut feeling is he\'ll be around 4-1
> max ( on BC Day ) .
>
> Today it looks like your projected LR\'s odds of
> around 6-5 don\'t offer much value but probably are
> right where they should be in relation to his
> chances of winning ...
Lawyer Ron is a bit of an enigma for the B.C. Classic. Thought he was one of the best horses going into the Derby, but discounted him from his post position with his running style. Today is a step towards the Classic for Lawyer Ron, but even if he\'s not up to the B.C. Classic horses he fits very well here. Remember he beat the Derby 3rd horse like a drum. He\'s at least in Blue Grass Cat\'s league and Blue Grass was way too much horse for Strong Contender.
I\'m factoring Lawyer Ron upon where I rated him going into the Derby and he\'s proven at the abbreviated Super Derby distance and does like the track. I don\'t know what he\'ll go off at, but 6-5 seems very fair to me. Maybe he\'ll be much less, I dont know. I\'m reserving opinion upon how he\'ll fair in the Classic until after the race. I do think he is going to fire a new top today.
SC - obvious contender with best, but i don\'t like his two turn races.
LR - i can\'t find much wrong. i do like him best in the 1m to 1 1/16m range, but he still ran well in the 9f ark derby. nice post. loves the track. low odds as the hometown choice the main issue.
PD - the scratch of the 3 improves his chances. i have no problem ignoring his last. expecting a run in the \'1\' range, but jock doesn\'t mind going wide, so you might have to add a bit to that #.
louisborg - i don\'t like the pattern much. got a perfect set up last, ran a four pt top, and comes back on three weeks. still, i like the breeding, and there is some pace here. have to see what the odds looks like.
i make LR the most likely winner, but have little interest at low odds. probably just watch it.
the odds are going to force me to reach here.
i\'m going with louisborg in the top three spots.
lawyer ron is a good horse. could be a great one going a flat mile.
congrats to those who liked strong contender.
Joe B and flush were talking BC futures at 50-1 yesterday.
not sure he\'s the BC winner, but if you locked in 50-1 yesterday, your ticket is worth a lot more than you paid for it.
louis sucked up for a rather weak third. he might be a decent four yr old.
I thought it was a good race. Not sure either of the top two stamped himself a B.C. Classic horse, but there were some reasons to think it was a good race.
The final time and fractions look like they standout on the day with the exception of the 1st race.
Lawyer Ron had to battle more than projected on that hot pace and he was still there battling at the end. He undoubtedly topped and may have lacked bottom to run his best that last sixteenth. He was beaten by a horse that ran a little faster lending credence to the Dwyer. Was it a negative 3? No, but it was a good race. If they stay healthy they both will be factors next year.
The lawyer got a poor ride from McKee,as usual. What happened to
Point D???????????????
point bounced off the wall last out on the turf and only had 20 days off.. easy toss
PD just proved what was known earlier in the year that West Coast 3yo crop was weak, and the Baffert mystique is not as mystical as it used to be, at least over a mile and 1/16, anyway.
NC Tony
The start of the race seemed to compromise any chance PD had.
Good points everyone - PD did get off to a lousy start and that could be for a reason . I felt PD\'s number two back was a toss but now w/ yesterday , I\'m wondering how can both PD\'s last 2 races can be toss\'s ...
can someone still help me understand why the author of ROTW speaks of \"reaction\" wehn it\'s been 12 weeks since his last race? I understand the PD 20 days...but a reaction off 12 weeks?
Waited all day for the Super Derby, figuring the LA crowd would overbet the hometown horse, LR. Made my bet on SC when the odds were 4-1, wasn\'t pleased when he dropped to 5-2 at post time. When I saw the touuble they were having trying to get him in the gate, I cancelled my bet. Oh well.
12 weeks???????
Josephus Wrote:
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> Waited all day for the Super Derby, figuring the
> LA crowd would overbet the hometown horse, LR.
> Made my bet on SC when the odds were 4-1, wasn\'t
> pleased when he dropped to 5-2 at post time. When
> I saw the touuble they were having trying to get
> him in the gate, I cancelled my bet. Oh well.
Well, at least you were on the correct horse. I would have been alright with Lawyer Ron winning, but Strong Contender ruined my bet. I was very skeptical of the Dwyer number, but in hindsight I think you have to acquiesce to Tgraph on Dwyer day. Not sure what Tgraph will score the Super Derby but it feels like negative material.
Thanks for letting us know before post time.
It gets tiresome hearing how a horse was an easy toss after the race has been run.
my bad...made a note on the analysis and totally misread it...guess that\'s why no one responded!
Shanahan - Don\'t know who did the ROTW , Alan might be doing it and I think he\'s doing a yomans job with it . Al\'s opinion in the ROTW\'s is solid , I know he stands by it and the same can be said for anyone at TG - from Jerry to right on down the line .
SC\'s big unsupported top ( by previous figures ) 3 races back would alone be enough to raise a question and when it\'s followed by a 7 pt bounce and then 12 weeks rest after that , a wait and see approach is what I\'m personally comfortable with .
Obviously alot of people bet SC and he did run very well - but I want alot for my $ 7 dollars . Doubt whether SC made it all the way back to the big # , guessing he ran in the negative range though - maybe around a neg -O\'\' ...
Marcus:
Assuming STRONG CONTENDER ran in ballpark of a negative 1/2 , the question then becomes how does he react to it going forward?
He has 5 weeks to the BC Classic which sounds like a lot of time. However, SC has needed more than that in the past.
Is he now a bigger, stronger, more mature colt capable of another forward move?? One can lean that way in that this is the time of year that a solid 3yo catches up with his elders. This may be particularly true with a May 15 foal.
One might guess that the next move is towards the neg 3 neighborhood. Or,one might guess that it will be the same \'ol story and SC bounces.
My guess is that you\'ll get around 12-1 to find out.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Good Luck,
Joe B.