Soon the Fall meet at Keeneland will begin on a new surface. I have read exerpts from public handicappers that indicate that horses that perform best on dirt...perform well on polytrack. Grass horses are less apt to peak on the poly. I have also heard that the inside speed bias from past meets at Keeneland is likely to disapear. I am sure the polytrack surface thread has already appeared somewhere in the archives.... but i haven\'t paid much attention because as an East coast player....i have never wagered on a polytrack surface thus far. I always tend to wager at Keeneland, so my curiousity is up....any insights that may help? Thx
In the past, I\'ve been very skeptical of the Polytrack panacea, however, after wagering on Woodbine and Turfway recently, I have to say I\'m very impresseed at the fairness of the surface.
My best advice is to handicap the races just like they look without any preconcieved bias. Inside/out/speed/closers, it does not matter. The best horse usally wins.
I think people are going to be very happy if they give it a chance.
A few key points - horses MUST be fit as it is a tiring surface. Look especially for horses who\'ve trained well over it. Though Keenland is a short meet, a very solid angle is a horse who runs first time polytrack and doesn\'t bounce from previous numbers, they usually improve dramatically second time. Horses with good action, efficient movers, do very well on Polytrack.
It\'s a very forgiving surface and most horses will perk up on it noticeably. Of course, times will be MUCH slower so note that also. One note I\'m interested in looking into is horses who train on Polytrack and run on conventional tracks, my guess is they will do very well, but there seems to be a limited amount of examples.
I can\'t wait till Southern Cal goes all Polytrack. Hollywood this fall should be terrific with their super grass course and Polytrack. I wish Santa Anita would get moving faster then they are.
Bottom line, it\'s a great help for the ailing thorobred industry. There is no reason for anyone to worry about this trend. Give it a try, observe some races, tread lightly at first. You won\'t be sorry.
THANKS DANA FOR THE INSIGHT ON THE POLY TRACK , ONE THING THOUGH , WHEN YOU REFER TO THE BOUNCE , DO YOU MEAN LESS THAN 2 PTS ? A NEAR PAIR ? OR LESS THAN A HORSE HAS DISPLAYED IN PRVIOUS FORM CYCLE\'S WHEN BOUNCING ETC ?
NCTONY LIKES WHAT HE\'S SEEING W/ NEW SURFACE ( AT TPX ) , AND SAID HE FEELS NUMBERS ARE HOLDING UP ...
I\'d say a near pair up seems to be a good indication. Pretty much as long as they don\'t go much slower (maybe even a couple points slower is ok) on their first polytrack effort, they\'ll usually go forward quite a bit on their second. I think that\'s a testiment to the added fitness they get out of polytrack, and I also think horses are MUCH happier on polytrack, so they tend to get more confidence as they run and train over it. They are more likely to extend themselves the second time out. I think when a horse feels safe and he really feels his feet on the ground he\'s more likely to give a good effort and do what the rider asks.
Very well reasoned approach. I hope Polytrack makes winners off all of you, keeps horses sound and trainers sane. Poly got a ringing endorsement this week when Todd Pletcher revealed that one of the reasons he was setting up shop out west was that important owner Tabor wanted his expensive stock to race and train over Poly.
Welcome to the brave new world. I hope Poly saves the game. If it keeps horses sounder, it might level the playing field in that the supertrainers with their high tech pain meds may not have as big an edge. I hope Tabor buys a $20 million yearling next year.
But lets keep variety in the game. There are still some natural grass fields in baseball. Lets leave the old fashioned dirt strips at Fair Grounds and at Churchill and at the 3 New York tracks. (The inner dirt can go synthetic--IMO the inner course at Aq was a progenitor of Poly). Lets see some racing over sloppy tracks, muddy tracks, drying out tracks. Let an old bastard like me who can still remember the mud marks in the Form have a couple more unlikely scores off obscure wet track breeding (I used to bet the descendants of Hagley blindly on off tracks).
As far as I am concerned, the dirt strips at Belmont, Saratoga and Churchill are hallowed ground. I hope these places will be to racing what Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and that place up in the Bronx are to baseball.
I\'ve rolled this quote out so many times, but it seems appropriate here. Tug McGraw, the flaky NY Met relief pitcher, was asked whether he preferred playing on natural grass or Astroturf. \"I don\'t know\" Tug replied, \"I never smoked Astroturf\"
Or, as the great Dick Allen opined, \"If a cow can\'t eat it, I don\'t want to play on it.\"
Interesting points being made by everyone about poly and thanks Dana for that insight on poly form and patterns , I \'ve been looking at it on TV and I like what I\'m seeing of the surface .
Of course all races on tonites TP card will have poly implications , but 3 races look most like possible poly angles - D.J. Tyler & Irish Bulldog in the 2nd + 3rd races off a layoff and 2nd off layof respectively , in the 9th race , Lively Classic @ 12-1 ml to win with Fast Deal , Lady Wrangler , Clash over as saver\'s looks like a play .
I\'ve wondered when we\'ll see a poly trpl crown ... Native New Yorkers Might want to be sitting when reading this -
1st : The only way to get the poly track at Bel and in the Triple Crown would be to ( make a huge comprimise and ) tear out 1 of the 2 turf course\'s and Install the Poly Track - the upside would be big even on a NY scale , Dirt , Turf & Poly - think about it ...
2nd : mets / dodgers world series
Marcus
# 2 is Impossible. Would you settle for a LCS series between the two?
NC Tony
sorry nct , as go the sox , so goes the american league i guess - what can i say except , i was a catcher + grew up a red sox fan and they ( pappas ) sponsored my almamata babe bruth/american legion post team the newton hlds red sox - i guess this means a subway series .
even still , #2 might be more likely than #1 ...
My concern is this will cause races to be run too formful. Will the track change much intraday or from day to day? Or does the variant remain much the same. I am afraid that we are going to get alot more chalk. Any thoughts?
Huck-- opening day at Turfway the poly got about 5 points faster throughout the card.
That\'s great news!!
Jerry,
Does the polytrack get faster and slower as often as the regular dirt tracks we are used to?
I hope that was not too general.
Thanks.
I\'d be more inclined to watch that series than to get involved with wagering polytrack. Which is the greater blasphemy? No answer needed.
Won\'t miss you Turfway, don\'t like your meet.
Keeneland runs briefly and don\'t like the seats.
Woodbine I\'ll miss ya, but don\'t care for grass
Kalifornia take that substance and shove it up your ....
marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting points being made by everyone about
> poly and thanks Dana for that insight on poly form
> and patterns , I \'ve been looking at it on TV and
> I like what I\'m seeing of the surface .
>
> Of course all races on tonites TP card will have
> poly implications , but 3 races look most like
> possible poly angles - D.J. Tyler & Irish
> Bulldog in the 2nd + 3rd races off a layoff and
> 2nd off layof respectively , in the 9th race ,
> Lively Classic @ 12-1 ml to win with Fast Deal ,
> Lady Wrangler , Clash over as saver\'s looks like a
> play .
>
> I\'ve wondered when we\'ll see a poly trpl crown ...
> Native New Yorkers Might want to be sitting when
> reading this -
>
> 1st : The only way to get the poly track at Bel
> and in the Triple Crown would be to ( make a huge
> comprimise and ) tear out 1 of the 2 turf course\'s
> and Install the Poly Track - the upside would be
> big even on a NY scale , Dirt , Turf & Poly -
> think about it ...
>
>
> 2nd : mets / dodgers world series
FWIW Keeneland also made their new polytrack more symmetrical than the dirt track was. Unless the gambling gods get involved the inside bias at Keeneland is history.
The only angle I can see to playing it is watching for when they work the track. I\'ve stopped playing Turfway but it seems every racecard there are one or two races that run all outside for no reason. Could have something to do with watering or conditioning the surface during the card, or perhaps just wishful thinking on my part.
To me 3-1 is a short price , unless it should be \"around\" even odds . I honestly don\'t know how prices would payoff under 2-1 and hope I never do and I play mainly turf races - And you can belive me on this , becouse you can trust someone under 50 ...
The managing of the KY \'05/ \'06 winter racing meets was a disaster , not even at a level of \" professional ametuer \" status . My old Boy Scout Troop 4B would easily have done a better job ...
They basically needed to do less in KY - which should come relatively easy for them and now to spin around and put in the poly ( even w/ union issues asside) really make\'s me wonder - what is going on down there in general terms and - Who\'s in charge of racing during the winter months in KY ... If the answer is : The Breeding Industry - it would explain alot . From my very limited understanding , it\'s almost been looking like a hostile take over situation down there for the past couple years .
Do we see an \" All Poly Triple Crown \" in the 5 to 10 yr range or sooner ? Maybe how NY State Gov\'t and NY Racing manage their assets and w/ less influence exerted from the breeding indrustry in NY ( than in KY ) could all be factors in whether Poly Surface becomes a reality at Belmont ...
I can understand how some people might want to stay away from some poly circuts for various reasons right now and I understand how also the inner trk at Aqu makes sense with long winter months up here - but down south , they could have just cancelled a few race cards in KY last winter and essentially the problem of track surface conditions simply goes away - but it was not the option they chose not to take ...
How about : \" Woodbine we hardly knew \'ya \" ... or \" Ky nice to see ya - wouldn\'t want to be \'ya \" or \" Go west young man - just don\'t come back anytime soon !!! \" , but it does get pretty serious though , if I\'m not mistaken - when we are talking about messing around too much with the Best racing has to offer - NY racing...