No fun handicapping the back part of the Belmont card tomorrow-- races 6 and 9 are scheduled for the turf, but an article published in DRF paints a dismal picture of both grass courses
According to Richard Migliore, the turf courses are \"... good to firm... for an eighth of a mile, soft to yielding for the next eighth of a mile, then hard for a sixteenth of a mile, then mushy...There\'s no consistency to it and we\'re ripping it up. We\'re bringing large clods up and horses are bobbling and stumbling all over the place\".
Even if the races are kept on the grass, how can you handicap with any confidence given those conditions?
Racing secretary Campo had been able to write the races which draw full fields throughout the Spring meet by writing four and five races a racing day on the grass; Campo may be paying the proverbial piper this Fall meet.
As for the dirt races, the McArthur Handicap, which drew 6 NY Breds, is fascinating on 3 levels. (A) Four of the six runners are cutting back from 9 furlong races at the Spa to a one turn mile; (B) the likely favorite spots significant weight to the rest of the field; (C) one possible pace scenario has the slowest (and most lightly weighted) entrant in the race enjoying an early pace advantage. I obviously do not have statistics for this, but I would imagine that the ROI on betting lightweights in Handicap races is rather unsatisfactory.
Race 7 (3YO 14K claimers). Must be the lowest price claimers at NYRA this year for 3YO because all entrants are dropping into the race out of higher priced claimers. Intrigued by Singalongwith Bert, with four wins lifetime the most prolific winner in the field. SB was claimed around Thanksgiving for 20K at Churchill. He then ran 3 poor races over Turfway\'s polytrack, with 3 sixth place finishes. When taken off polytrack, SB responded with consecutive wins at MNR and CT. Guess we will all have to be more aware of the \"off the Poly\" angle in our future handicapping.
Fun with Thoro Patterns: in the 7th race, the T- patterns tell us the following- DeRoode, Closing Bell, and Sir Speedator (same pattern)all have a 53% likelihood to hang up an \"X\"; the aforementioned Singalong\'s pattern predicts a 64% chance of \"X\"ing; What Is\' pattern predicts a 54% chance of the \"X\". Not too \"X\" citing, eh?
All told, rough sledding in the last 4 at big \"B\". 2 maiden races which may or may not be run on the grass, the cheapest 3YO race of the year (so far) and a short field of NYBs.