I\'m really looking forward to seeing Bright One knock heads with Bernardini and BGC. I see the pace scenario involving BO on the engine with BGC to his outside and Bernardini sitting chilly in 3rd tracking those two. Should be exhillarating when they hit the top of the stretch
Isnt Henny Hughes racing in the Travers as well?
Bright One is not running in the Travers, was pulled from contention yesterday
buck,
there\'s more to the pace than that.
i can see BGC rating a bit, but gomez is probably going with high cotton, and you never know what ward has planned for his entry. ministers bid just worked :59.4. i think zito\'s salt horse also showed some speed in his last.
doesn\'t really matter where bernardini is placed.
have to just sit back and watch this one.
Couldn\'t Agree with you more on your assesment of this years race,Michael. Race has come up light, as usual, in this new Millenium. Two Uncuppled Pletchers vs two uncuppled Wards.
Hope you had the Pacific Classic exacta as I saw your pre race picks. I decided to Tivo it and play golf instead. Nice score to be had even with Odds on choice on top.
NC Tony
hi Tony,
i didn\'t make that a strong play.
they put all of the horses i think are overrated into a grade 1, so i just took a shot that shug\'s horse might have a solid mile and a quarter dirt run in him.
he didn\'t.
got very lucky to hold on for a weak 2nd.
still, it was a decent $66 exacta.
too bad the travers isn\'t much of a betting race. should be fun to watch though, because velazquez will make a run at the great one at one point.
I was based my Travers post on Bloodhorse information I got on Monday but now I see Bright One ain\'t dancing. What a pathetic lineup. If you do wager - the only strategy that would make any sense to me is to toss BGC (feels he\'ll bounce off that powerful Haskell) and wheel BERNARDINI to the remaining five in an agressive exacta.
I feel stupid just writing out that scenario.
Counting days until the Breeder\'s Cup Classic...That\'s for sure!
Entering BLUEGRASS CAT after a peak effort 20 days ago is not Pletcher\'s MO.
While I understand that BC is now a stronger, older 3yo than he was in the spring, he has always needed time off after a peak effort. We all know he doesn\'t run second to BARBARO in the Derby if his Blue Grass was a top and he doesn\'t run second to JAZIL without the 5 week layoff.
I would stab with one or both of the Ward horses underneath the favorite, grab a beer,and watch a terrific racehorse win the Travers.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
on the other hand, it\'s a guaranteed pik 3.
and it\'s not just Bernardini...all the Darley runners are going big...
Have you looked at Albertrani\'s record Since Bernadini won?
FYI
NC Tony
anybody know albertrani\'s record since his drug suspension a few months ago?
a tranquilizer called acepromazine ??
Acepromazine is a TQ(tranquilizer) used by many trainers in shipping a horse to calm them.Albertrani\'s record for the past two months has not been too good but I doubt that will stop Bernardini.
miff,
yes, i think bernardini is genuine.
this suspension story came right around the time of the preakness, so it got virtually no press. lucky for albertrani.
The sentiments of Joe B and others seems to be that Bernadini is so imposing that the best way to approach the race is grab a beer and take notes for a future engagement
Reminder (1) Its Saratoga
Reminder (2) The Travers is the anchor leg of a Pick 4 and Pick 6. If you think Bernardini and maybe Henny are \"death and taxes\", get involved in these multiple race wagers. The 6th and 7th races, which kick off the P6, seem to be open allowance races with full fields.
Looking forward to playing the \"Six\" on Travers Day. I rarely play the wager and the last one I cashed featured 2 winners from Gaspar Moschera and one from \"Pistol\" Pete Ferriola... yeah, its been a while.
Plus I don\'t see such big number power in his favor and a bad trip/small bounce could lead to a defeat. I am skipping myself but I am hoping for a Bernadini win as it\'s been a bad week for good horses (like Saint Liam and Lost in the Fog) Seems like racing could use a new star E
I\'m thinking Bernardini\'s bouncing next - granted the level of abillity is established w/ the pair , but off a somewhat fragile line .
Henny Huges is another story - she looks ready to pair-up now .
Either way - defintely get that beer . Think Grolcsh ! ! !
Marcus
HH hasn\'t won past 6f, his #\'s outside of 6f aren\'t so great, he faces some early pressure, comes off a VERY big top, and I think off surgery(?). I am using lweis michael off a real nice line and a Superhot trainer. I love that type of line which often leads to the next move.
Good Luck
Rich - That one\'s interesting too - alot like Blue Grass\'s pattern in the travers , could easily be a mid/Lt -season move coming ... good luck
More than that last one is Henny\'s 2 yo #\'s that really drew me in . Court Folly might continue forging too - there\'s alot going on in that race for HH to deal with but it should a classic ...
I believe Lewis Michael is going to scratch in favor of the St. Louis Derby tomorrow.
Really not sure I\'ll be favoring Henny Hughes, but what was it about that Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvenile to influence you to believe six furlongs is within Henny Hughes scope but seven furlongs is beyond it?
RICH Wrote:
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> Marcus
>
> HH hasn\'t won past 6f, his #\'s outside of 6f
> aren\'t so great, he faces some early pressure,
> comes off a VERY big top, and I think off
> surgery(?). I am using lweis michael off a real
> nice line and a Superhot trainer. I love that type
> of line which often leads to the next move.
>
> Good Luck
JR did make it fun to watch with the run, but he was on a much lesser horse.
from the brilliant one paced withers run, to one of the fastest stretch finishes in the history of the preakness (third fastest finishing kick i think), to the gallop in the jim dandy with the durkin \"LIKE A STATUE!!\" call .... it\'s been fun watching one of the greatest thoroughbreds of all-time.
>it\'s been fun watching one of the greatest thoroughbreds of all time.
Seems like we have about one of those a year now.
See:
Mineshaft
Ghostzapper
Saint Liam
Let\'s not get crazy here. Let him beat something of substance before we put him in that category. Unfortunately, it looks like his best competition before retirement will be Lava Man. Not exactly Seattle Slew v. Affirmed. Most likely he will never carry significant weight and will certainly never face any quality horses his age. Is he really any better than say, Point Given.
Lets not get too crazy here guys... Ghostzapper ran negative 6s! and he beat horses in the same race running negative 3\'s to negative 6s (saint liam).. which was amazing... Bernardini is a great horse but hasnt ran vs. any quality... the preakness he came in the second fastest... jim dandy he much the fastest and yesterday other then bg cat being 2 points slower and in form..the rest of the field was garbage.. i would say hes one of the best 3 yos ever but lets see what he does vs faster/older horses
thanks for the input guys.
i always love the \"greatest\" discussions. i\'m usually the one calling somebody else crazy for putting a horse in that category.
i thought bernardini was something special after his maiden win at GP.
i thought he was great after his withers win.
i thought he had the talent to be one of the best ever after his preakness win.
after his jim dandy and travers runs, i make him one of the best ever.
just one guy\'s opinion, and i don\'t expect any strong following until he wins a few more, but ...
you can\'t make money taking a strong stand on a horse after his career is over. right?
gowand Wrote:
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> Let\'s not get crazy here. Let him beat something
> of substance before we put him in that category.
> Unfortunately, it looks like his best competition
> before retirement will be Lava Man. Not exactly
> Seattle Slew v. Affirmed. Most likely he will
> never carry significant weight and will certainly
> never face any quality horses his age. Is he
> really any better than say, Point Given.
Point Given ran all the races. He\'s not in Point Given\'s class. At least not yet. Point Given danced all the Triple Dances, won the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers. Anyone really think this one has accomplished all that?
I measure greatness by speed. If folks want to think Bluegrass Cat paired up with a \"Negative\" 1 that puts Bernardini in the Negative 4 range. Thats fast, but he didn\'t go that fast. All you have to do is note the times on the day and factor how unlikely it would be for the others in the race to equal or exceed tops at the novel distance and with the trouble they faced.
A good horse yes. A great one? most certainly not yet. He was a nice cash in the Preakness, he has been valueless and the most advantageously placed since. Lets see him square up with the handicap ranks and win by open lengths before we get all gushy.
He still has a lot to prove and when the timing is right the bettors will be there saying...ok now prove it. Hopefully the impressionable will back him down to Travers odds.
>i would say hes one of the best 3 yos ever but lets see what he does vs faster/older horses
We have about one of those a year now also.
See:
Point Given
Smarty Jones
Afleet Alex
We also know how those three did against Older.......
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> >i would say hes one of the best 3 yos ever but
> lets see what he does vs faster/older horses
>
> We have about one of those a year now also.
>
> See:
>
> Point Given
> Smarty Jones
> Afleet Alex
>
> We also know how those three did against
> Older.......
Excellent point Silver. It takes a special 3YO to dominate his elders. Obviously, none of those 3 did. Horses that come to mind are Easy Goer and Affirmed.
Just learned Bluegrass Cat was retired. Apparently injured in the Travers. How greatly it impacted his performance is guesswork. Personally, I think some of these horses run through it without feeling it. But don\'t think that was Bluegrass Cats best race. There just wasnt enough quality in the race and that which was there wasn\'t prepared to run a lick.
Albertani is apparently hedging already:
\" He just seems like he\'s getting better and better every time he runs. I think he stacks up pretty well with the older horses.\"
Albertrani said that regardless of what happens in the fall, Bernardini should be strongly considered for the 3-year-old championship over Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, who was injured in the Preakness\"
http://www.drf.com/news/article/78010.html
Agree he should be concerned about the fall, but also agree he\'s unseated Barbaro, but I\'m just as certain the goofy writers dont see that yet.
I really think that we have a LOT of horses each year that are superstars but they get run into the ground because of improper rest... look at someone like Bellamy Road..the horse ran out of his mind (negative 5 or so) last year then ran like 30 days later in the derby.... same thing this year with bafferts horse Sinister Minister... that horse ran a neg 4.5... If any of these horses had at least 3 months rest i guarantee they come back to another number pretty close to what they ran and those numbers beat a horse like Bernardini... Bernardini has had the rest needed to keep improving.. I guarantee if Baffert trained Bernardini and won the preakness, he wouldve brought him out for the belmont stakes and destroyed the horses future..or maybe its just the owners who knows but the fact is that these horses need rest and its obvious they are not getting it after these monster numbers
I could maybe understand 3 yo Horse of year - if he had wom the DERBY . Best senario has a \" Draw \" or Co - Top Honors for 3yo Horse of the year . If Sarava had won 2 more Stakes a couple years ago , I doubt whether that would have made him one of the best ever .
Berni probably needs to win out through the rest of the year to be legit as one of the best 3 yo\'s ever ...
>Berni probably needs to win out through the rest of the year to be legit as one of the best 3 yo\'s ever ...
So far this horse two quality wins. The Preakness and Travers. That is it. He was still a maiden until around Feb or March.
In a match race against Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Point Given he might be the longest shot on the board. Barely fast enough and not as seasoned.
One thing I do know, none of the above are Secratariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed or even Spectacular Bid.
As of now Bernardini is nothing more than a Paper Champion.
Hell he ain\'t even a Thunder Gulch.......
Interesting Contrast:
Alex, Smarty and Point Given all retired during their 3YO seasons.
Affirmed, Slew, Secretariat and Spec Bid all had exceptional campaigns as 4YOs.
What a difference 25 years makes.
If Bluegrass Cat was racing in the 70s or 80s, he would have been rested and rehabilitated over the winter and brought back as a 4YO. In those days, his resume (Gr II winner as a 2YO, GR I winner at 3, and placed in KY Derby) would have made him a marginal stallion prospect on the basis of his race record.
If you are a big Bernardini fan, and want to see him race as a 4YO, I guess you would have to hope he DOESN\'T win the BC Classic; if he does, he\'s off to the breeding shed.
Have said it before, will say it again: If racing fans are clamoring for warriors who answer the bell year after year (Kelso, Forego, John Henry, Perfect Drift), geldings will need to be somehow subsidized and incentivized, as in (a) purse enhancements for geldings or (b) weight allowances for geldings or (c) both (a) and (b).
Can\'t even say the Travers was a quality win. They get 20 horses together every May for the Derby, but come August the Travers field often comes up lacking. 6 horses went to the gate. One retired sore and the others had trouble. When was the last bang up Travers? Megas win over Repent I suppose. Maybe Coronado\'s Quest\'s win.
Hes run some nice figures and he\'s the division leader, though by default predominantly. At least he\'s winning races other recent superstars were getting beat in.
I hope Sinister Minister comes back sound. I\'d like to see Bernardini chase that and see if he has anything left...lol
Bernardini is a good horse though and it will take a good effort and the right conditions to beat him.
Bluegrass Cat retires with enough Black Type and enough Storm Cat breeding to get a big shot at stud. Second in the Derby, Belmont and Travers sounds pretty impressive, provided you don\'t look too hard at those races. The Haskell was laughable. He kept running though when others fell by the wayside, until the Travers that is. Oh Well, maybe he\'ll be the next great sire.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >Berni probably needs to win out through the
> rest of the year to be legit as one of the best 3
> yo\'s ever ...
>
> So far this horse two quality wins. The Preakness
> and Travers. That is it. He was still a maiden
> until around Feb or March.
>
> In a match race against Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex
> and Point Given he might be the longest shot on
> the board. Barely fast enough and not as
> seasoned.
>
> One thing I do know, none of the above are
> Secratariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed or even
> Spectacular Bid.
>
> As of now Bernardini is nothing more than a Paper
> Champion.
>
> Hell he ain\'t even a Thunder Gulch.......
Ah, POINT GIVEN...now that was a great 3yo.
I agree...would not crown BERNARDINI as a great horse just yet. But he is cetainly headed in that direction. Proved versatility in style by sitting back and then pouncing in quick paced Preakness, then wiring the Dandy & Travers.
Something to look forward to as, IMO, older group looks so-so.
Note: Please, no feedback on LAVA MAN who is running on Cali Goya juice.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
On a line through Dr Pleasure, the Travers performance looks pretty similar to the Jim Dandy.