OK, you guys have really got me thinking about the right way to articulate this, so I\'ll try to take a shot. Granted this may be giving away some trade secrets, but what the hell.
The basic premise here is all based on what is the affect of pace on what TG# a horse MIGHT BE ABLE TO RUN TODAY. This type of analysis should be done in coordination with, not exclusive from, other TG methodology from pattern reads, bounce projects, etc.
SITUATIONS WHERE PACE CAN LEAD TO A SMALL TG ADJUSTMENT
1) As mentioned in earlier posts, the clearest example of this is a horse who will be on the lead alone, or possibly be able to save ground because of speed. I\'m thinking back to the Breeder\'s Cup Turf that Buck\'s Boy won. That year there were many horses right around the 4 range, but Bucks Boy was a lone speed play and that caused me to expect a better number out of him than his competetors.
2) A pace analysis determines there will be TOO MANY horses near the lead. This leads to speed duels and horses tiring more quickly than normal. A great example of this was this year\'s SA Big Cap. Several horses appeared capable of running a 2, leading to a very difficult looking race on TG #s. A pace analysis, however, showed that there would be lots of horses on the front end, likely to tire each other out. I used Futural, Cagney, and Milwaukee Brew in my pick3s and pick4s. Why? Because they had the highest late-end BRIS pace ratings. Actually Milwaukee Brew had earned a 127 late pace rating in his last race, which had been the highest of all the contenders.
SITUATIONS WHERE PACE CAN LEAD TO AN ABNORMALLY LARGE TG ADJUSTMENT
1) A horse running longer than ever previously attempted and has larger late-end pace figures. The most common occurance of this is in younger horses, frequently in maiden races. A horse may look awful on a TG sheet, but if the races were all sprints with pace figures that look like (60-70-90), there\'s a good chance for a dramatic, abnormal improvement when stretching out.
The converse is also true of those horses streching out who run more on the front end. The derby is a great example of this where you see horses with solid lines but front-end loaded pace figures throw in a double-digit effort.
2) Horses shortening up after a route or series of routes. These are great horses to play when the pace figures look like (90-90-50) on a route and that probably equates to a 15 on TG, but now in a 6 furlong race there is a potential for a large jump up because you can tell from previous pace figures that the horse will greatly appreciate the long distance.
3) Tracks with severe speed/rail biases. This years FG meet and previous Keenland meets come to mind. Find the horse that will be fast enough to get to the rail and even if the TG figures are horrible, you may catch a bomb in the trifecta.
4) Horses coming down the 6.5 turf at Santa Anita that have larger back-end pace figures. I LOVE these races, this has been my bread and butter this winter. Speed is WAY overbet (and not helpful) in these races.
Hope this is a little more helpful summary...
This is interesting. A few comments.
Re: Buck\'s Boy. \"That year there were many horses right around the 4 range, but Bucks Boy was a lone speed play and that caused me to expect a better number out of him than his competetors.\"
As I recall, this was a three turn race. You can look at this as a pace issue, but you can also simply give Buck\'s Boy credit for ground loss (and lack thereof). Since Buck\'s Boy is going to be in the 1 path all the way around (I think he also started from the rail), if he runs his 4 again, other horses are going to have to run MUCH better to beat him (assuming equal weights - especially with 3 turns) to make up for this 1 path edge.
The point being, Buck\'s Boy did not have to run a better number than his competitors. If he runs a 4 and they run 4\'s, they\'re going to lose unless they can save more ground, which was unlikely.
JB or others can correct me on this, but in TG handicapping, \'pace\' is often factored in on this \'ground loss\' basis (i.e., in considering pace scenarios, the front runners should get credit for saving ground, and if two horses are going to run 4\'s, the one that\'s going to lose all the ground may have to run a 2 or better to get in the picture).
I remember this becuase I used Buck\'s Boy in Pick 3\'s but I liked Hawksley Hill and tossed Da Hoss.
Stretchouts - I have done MUCH better playing horses who have shown early speed when they figure to have this early edge over a field of routers. The whole key being that the horse is going to be able to carry his speed further running a half in 47-48 as opposed to the 45-46\'s he\'s been running in sprints. This works well in the 1-1/16 or 1-1/8 races but going further I tend to mark them down regardless. In my observation, horses who run late in sprints run late in the routes too.
Turnbacks - I like them a lot more if they are in 6-7f races where there figures to be a speed duel. If there isn\'t a hot pace, their stretch edge is greatly diminished.
Obviously these observations are not based on the BRIS or other pace figures. I\'m sure pace figures can give you a more accurate picture than the racing form, but this is how I\'ve been playing them. I find the TG trainer data is very helpful, since some trainers are really focused on this kind of thing and some aren\'t.
If your angles work more power to you. I\'m sure there are specific situations (like the KEE and SA stuff you mention) where this kind of analysis is very valuable. HP