A colt who has drawn a lot of attention on this board, Lost in the Fog, runs Saturday in Calder\'s 500k Smile Sprint Handicap, where he will face 12 rivals, at least 8 of whom are graded stakes winners. LITF is topweighted at 125, spotting all opponents at least 8 pounds.
Hats off to Calder management for assigning the weight, and to the LITF people for taking the assignment.
Also best of luck to Annika Lass in the Princess Rooney. Question for TGJB-- Anita and Freddie Velasquez, former owner/trainer of AL-- did they fire their own son? I see he no longer rides their horses.
can\'t recall the last time two King\'s Bishop champs faced off as older horses...
wont take too big a price to bite on Pomeroy bringing his extreme Spa speed down south; I\'ll surely be setting my Calderbot software to \"win on the 12 if\" and watching for the clean break before hitting the go button
tgjb will you be there
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> can\'t recall the last time two King\'s Bishop
> champs faced off as older horses...
>
> wont take too big a price to bite on Pomeroy
> bringing his extreme Spa speed down south; I\'ll
> surely be setting my Calderbot software to \"win on
> the 12 if\" and watching for the clean break before
> hitting the go button
I don\'t know if I\'d rather you to be joking or if I want an admission that people are able to use this technique!
SC-- no, I\'ve already been doing a lot of running around the country, and I have a DMR trip and two to Saratoga coming up.
TGJB Wrote:
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> SC-- no, I\'ve already been doing a lot of running
> around the country, and I have a DMR trip and two
> to Saratoga coming up.
JB - I\'m booked for the greatest racing week of my life. Arlington for Million Day while on business and a family trip to SoCal later that week and will spend Sunday in the DMR infield for the Pacific Classic and another shot to see Perfect Drift win a big race in person.
Will you be at DMR that day to watch Super Frolic?
EZ-- unlikely. I\'m going out the last weekend of this month, probably not again.
richiebee Wrote:
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>
>
> Also best of luck to Annika Lass in the Princess
> Rooney. Question for TGJB-- Anita and Freddie
> Velasquez, former owner/trainer of AL-- did they
> fire their own son? I see he no longer rides their
> horses.
The son now helps the father with the training-he couldn\'t make the weight anymore.
This is the first race she hasn\'t had a slug on her back.Channing Hill or Stew Elliot do nothing for a horse.Chris Emigh butchered her at Arlington putting her up between dueling horses going a 44 change half.Its one thing to expect a paceless race(it appeared that way on paper) and go into it trying to sit close,but there is such a thing as a clock in your head which Emigh seems to be lacking.
Freddie Velasquez saw her at Aqueduct in April when he had a horse running the same day.Said she looks bigger and put on weight which was a good thing,but couldn\'t understand why Assmussen used a tongue tie and a certain kind of a bit on her-neither of which she needed when he had her.I know she doesn\'t mind the hot weather so Calder should be fine for her.
Big:
Thanks for the clarification. I was interested in this story, having been fired/rehired/fired by my pop quite a few times during our years in business together.
EZ
Perfect Drift and Win --- what an OXYmoron.
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> EZ
>
> Perfect Drift and Win --- what an OXYmoron.
>
> NC Tony
I know... it\'s complete torture, but I\'ve been playing him blindly since the 2002 Spiral Stakes. He\'s everything a racehorse should be - sturdy, runs in top company, has traveled from coast to coast with many stops in between. He\'s shown up at TP, CD, BEL, HOO, AP, HAW, SA, KEE, PrM, SAR, DMR, & LS. Drifty has never been injured other than getting hit in the eye with a dirt clod. He\'ll run eight races again this year... Washington Park Handicap is next, followed by Pacific Classic, HAW Gold Cup, BC Classic, and Clark Hcp.
He\'s sure had some heartbreakers...the last was definitely the worst of all... at 11-1. With a line of 38 - 11 - 11 - 6 $4.47 million, there isn\'t a person on this list (including Graph Racing) who wouldn\'t give a nut to own him....I understand horse racing is about winning, but being a fan of a horse and getting to see him run FORTY times is awesome.
The fave from that 02 Spiral also keeps going and going... looks to be coming around again at 7 and could be undervalued in the Bowling Green on Sat.
You have got to hand it to Perfect Drift, He shows up more often to race and race pretty good almost every time out. He does everything but win. I Used to bet him myself, now I use him to my benefit. (lately anyway)
NC Tony
Wow...what a weird day. I\'m hoping that that Weigelia hangs on to win with any of the Wolfson Horses (in exacta boxes).
The day as it turned out, anything won that ran wide, down the middle of the track in the stretch. Nothing did well inside yesterday and most in fact were off the pace runners. We all figured that LITF was a bet against, but could anyone figure Dubai escapade total collapse over that field? If you did....that was an excellent call, (I couldn\'t see that one, nor could the big better looking for a quick 5%).
The day also played well to the \"horse for course\" theory. Most winners all day have shown well over the Calder strip. Most invaders had a rough day.
Jerry will the day qualify for an X?
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Wow...what a weird day. I\'m hoping that that
> Weigelia hangs on to win with any of the Wolfson
> Horses (in exacta boxes).
>
> The day as it turned out, anything won that ran
> wide, down the middle of the track in the
> stretch. Nothing did well inside yesterday and
> most in fact were off the pace runners. We all
> figured that LITF was a bet against, but could
> anyone figure Dubai escapade total collapse over
> that field?
Yes
> If you did....that was an excellent
> call, (I couldn\'t see that one, nor could the big
> better looking for a quick 5%).
Not really, though its not like it was. Horses don\'t generally ship into Calder and run well. That said, Dubai Escapade very much had a target on her back. The strong favorite to not aim at was Too Much Bling, but then he is the best or second best sprinter in training. LITF has always been vastly over valued. As was Madcap Escapade and her sister.
>
> The day also played well to the \"horse for course\"
> theory. Most winners all day have shown well over
> the Calder strip. Most invaders had a rough day.
Very good observation. Follow it at Calder.
>
> Jerry will the day qualify for an X?
>
> NC Ton
So he didn\'t like the big sandy ... I though Dubai Escapade was as clear a play against and looked poised to bounce last week irregardless of where the race was run .
I\'d like to understand your rationale for that in race, against that field, maybe I can learn something..ie read into that way. I can see it many times, not in this particlar case. I spoke to a well known trainer after the race and he told me it\'s the Calder surface for ship ins. Very tough track he said.
NC Tony
if your asking me - check out his sheet again if you still got it , the keeneland # 2 races back did something ... it caused a 4 pt bounce next time out and based on that , the negative kee # might knock him out for a while , so i would have needed to see a much better price on Dubai - lot\'s of people belived this horse was a lock as the odds show - but obviously , it wasn\'t .
i seriously doubt dubai escapde will ever run a new top or pair-up the old one again and said i didn\'t like him in advance of the race on the tg board and in my ph contest ( now i could use the monks ) which i\'m presently tanking in - i did good in the bris contest though .
my view and rational for the race - before and after wasn\'t \" affected bahavior \" as somebody on the thread attemted to articularlate . i don\'t forget that alot of money is lost by people who become too ego involved and make bad decisions when betting and engauge degenerative behavior .
don\'t listen to these types ( many of whom may feel morally right in losing and hide behind excuse\'s ) when going to the windows - it\'s your money though ... + your break even point on even money is % 50 percent winners , sorry but i aint that good to do that - miff was right about apropriate wagering strategy in that situation but not the horse\'s pattern ...
in the rooney i wound up using 1.leave me alone 2.annika lass 3.dubai escapade
NC Tony,
The rationale is someone is \"resulting\". The horse looked like a mortal lock going in but not bettable except for exotics/pick 3\'s.
Mike
I avoided the race in race wagering but singled her in the P5 which cost me. I thought even off the bounce effort, that was good enough to beat that field. But I need to resurect that races sheets.
Thanks guys for the insight.
Maybe became a little lazy looking at that race as the other races that day required more effort.
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> I avoided the race in race wagering but singled
> her in the P5 which cost me. I thought even off
> the bounce effort, that was good enough to beat
> that field. But I need to resurect that races
> sheets.
>
> Thanks guys for the insight.
>
> Maybe became a little lazy looking at that race as
> the other races that day required more effort.
>
> NC Tony
Calder use to be tartan and there was a time when a very sandy mixture was placed over the old tartan surface. In those days the top flite horses would ship south in the winter before Hialeah or Gulfstream opened and they were always ripe for upset at Calder. Creme Fraiche was one of the few that won there, but I seem to recall him losing too. The track composition has changed but its still a challenge for first timers. A crucial factor at this time of year is the heat and humidity. Horses running at Belmont or Arlington are going to be in for a shock trying to keep their wind in that Blast Furnance. Getting from the car to the clubhouse can soak your shirt, but when you are wet those are the days you want to see odds on northern horses running without a work at the track. Calder also is one of the very few tracks with an air conditioned grandstand. So that should tell you something about the climate for running.
Dubai Escapade is a nice mare, but has she accomplished greatness? Isn\'t she kind of niched in Grade II sprints much like Lost in the Fog?
Finally, the local horses are not half bad. Theres nothing wrong with acclimated Florida Breds. They will ship North in the summer and do more damage than most trying to ship South.