I have been reading way too much hype about this horse. I doubt he will even make it to the derby because horses that don\'t switch leads usually do so for many reasons.
Either they didn\'t switch leads because they were tired or they were tired because they didn\'t switch leads (can\'t wait for Alydar\'s response to that one...). More importantly,
there is probably a physical problem that
with Repent which is making him resist switching leads. If this horse does make it to KY, I will most likely bet against him unless he shows me otherwise in the weeks to come.
Nunzio
He changed leads in Lousiana Derby, did he not?
Alydar (the horse) never changed leads. Maybe thats why Affirmed kept beating him.
There are no horses of that caliber in this years crop. I do not expect Repent to be around after the TC races, but for now, he\'s in a league all by himself.
MO
Mark,
You are correct, he did switch leads but it was inside the 1/8 pole when he did, and it wasn\'t very pretty afterwards. He was all
over the track. I\'m not of the opinion he is in a league by himself. Siphonic is a better horse but whether he\'ll reproduce his number is another question. Frankels 3yo (name escapes me) is pretty fast and that 3yo filly that won at FG (name also escapes me) is
no slouch herself. Hopefully in the coming weeks some of these sophmores will move forward.
Good Luck.
Nunzio
I must agree with Nunzio here that Repent is overrated. I think his stablemate, the filly Take Charge Lady, is as good as he is at this point in time. It would be poetic justice if Tony D\'Amico rode TCL and beat Repent/Bailey and Harlan\'s Holiday/Prado (or whoever).
At this point in time I think Repent, Came Home, Siphonic, Booklet, Take Charge Lady, Johannesberg (can\'t forget about him) comprise a first tier in terms of Derby chances. I wouldn\'t want to split hairs between them now. In the second tier, I have Harlan\'s Holiday, Yougottawanna, Saarland, Danthebluegrassman, et al. This weekend should clarify the picture a bit.
David, when you\'re listing your first tier and second tier, don\'t forget about Belterra, Tempera, Imperial Gesture, You, Habibti, and Bella Belucci, as well as take Charge Lady. I am of the opinion that the fillies are better than the colts this year. We don\'t have current figures on all these yet but when we do I think they will top the colts. I think if you constructed a 14 horse field for the Derby with these 7 fillies and any 7 colts you want to pick, more of the fillies would be in the top half of the field at the finish. But we won\'t get to see that, or even anything that resembles it, because none of these trainers is likely to have the courage to attempt it. McPeek is talking about the maybe trying the colts with Take Charge Lady. He might in the Arkansas Derby. And Goldophin might be forced to run one of their fillies just to get in the Derby field because their colts aren\'t showing anything. But the Oaks is shaping up to be the best race this year if all these fillies stay healthy and converge on Kentucky on May 3.
Good point, JimP. It would be interesting to see the kind of \"Battle of the Sexes\" you described.
It is hard to argue that Repent is overrated, as he ran the last quarter in 24:0 flat while fighting Bailey the whole way. The horse looks brilliant to me. I do think, however, that his downfall will be his inability to smoothly change leads and explode down the lane in a field with 20 horses. Bet against him in the derby, but you have to agree, he is a nice horse ??
Let\'s wait until after the Bonnie Miss tomorrow to make a list of the top 3 yr old fillies. I\'ve doped the race pretty thoroughly, & I think Nonsuch Bay has a very big chance to upset at 6-1, particularly since the fav hasn\'t raced for 111 days & both horses\' tops(4 1/4 vs 4 1/2) are almost identical, though they came at different distances. I\'ve seen both of Nonsuch\'s races & if she runs the way I think she might tomorrow, she got a legit shot at the Oaks.
Mall, now that you metion it, Nonsuch Bay is intriguing in the Bonnie Miss. I have reservations about her distance capabilities. Her sire (Mr. Greeley) and especially her broodmare sire (Light Idea) get better runners going short rather than long. Alexander is OK, not great, with stretchouts and the running lines from her two races seem to indicate that she would prefer 6f. If she could stay 9f, she\'s got a good chance, though.