.
hey , how about that canadian race sunday - eh ? ...
Marcus,if the race goes North,how can you make money on a 2/5 shot that will win by 5........
good point !!!! 2-5 doesn\'t work + even if you could hook it up , it\'s a prohibrative price . martha stewart and operah recently visited my neighborhood , so the cost of living around here is about to go up , something more like 20-1 is in order ...
I\'ll have something either a little later or Friday afternoon. The Colonial Turf Cup is the likely selection.
Alan..now thats a great Choice!!!
14 horse feild. Horses going Dirt-Turf, Million Dollar Purse, all the Big Trainers, Diffwerent patterns coming in. Makes for an intersting analysis, and perhaps some insight on how to read turf patterns for young horses...
NC Tony
nice going - it\'s one of my bris contest races and it looks like a good one .
Tagg,Pletcher,Romans,Dutrow,Mott,Biancone,Wolfson,Bailes,Catalano,Sciacca & Dickinson....not a bad group on trainers and the angles you could come up with.......
Alan - you\'re the man. Wish you were here for the day - any possibility for the VA Derby?
Hey dehere
Are you going tomorrow? I am.
NC Tony
and the ROTW is????????????????????????????????
Late....Colonial Cup it is.....
Alan,
Got an early flight in the AM. When do you think you will have it ready?(ROTW)
NC Tony
Sorry better late than never. Give me a minute or three.
Im sure it will be...why do you think Im up so late!!! (for a 7:00 Am Flight)
Thanks
NC Tony
Alan,
Very Good Analysis. I am so happy to see something like this vis a vis Rebates, volume betting etc... I\'ve been sitting at home thinking this race through as well. I really Like the Wolfson Horse. I also think Showing Up will run a very credible race. Post position will help today. But I also tend to agree he will run better on Grass 2nd time out. I saw his race in Keeneland and it was impressive.
I agree the Dutrow horse will melt down the lane. I don\'t think Lewis Michael bounces today. And even if he does, I think if he runs anything like he did last he blows this field away. Catalano has this one ready. If you get anything at 15-1 ML . I think Im tempted to play this one together with the runners you mentioned. I think LM breeding screams turf. His last was to ogood to ingnore, and there is \"word on the street\". This is my only major difference from your analysis. I am playing a big exacta box Lewis Michael with Can\'t Beat it. i might play both to win if over 15-1.
What is really hard is decinding on how to play a super in this race. usually I can settle in in 6-8 horses in some logical order. This race is so wide open. A super may pay boxcars (provided the money is in the pool)
NC Tony
Why won\'t Lewis Michael bounce? That last was a big effort. Catalano is certainly a capable trainer. Now he could bounce and win but as I said I just have problems betting horses who are going south. Of course I\'ve tossed horses many a time for this reason and they end up getting a piece ruining whatever bet I\'m holding. I\'m more inclined to use Showing Up than Lewis Michael. Showing Up is solid and he does get the rail.
Years ago, pre-sheets for me, Tagg was based down in Maryland. He gained a reputation as a turf trainer and often sent up shippers that beat up on the NY runners. Of course then, nobody had any data to back up or support word-of-mouth reputations, unless one clipped DRF charts, newspaper charts or rifled through microfilm. Times have changed.
WoW!!!!!!!
allen - well done , kudos and excellent call on the rotw , i\'m hoping the suface switch to grass help\'s minimalize lewis micheal\'s bounce a little - that kind of price sure is tempting + can\'t beat it either ... you nailed it buddy -mazeltov !
Nothing fancy,just the numbers........Lewis Michael to win and key the super with TG\'s picks in a box.
Alan,
Nice Call (as usual- Senza Aglio comes to mind again). Once Lewis Michael opened up at 8-5 that completely changed my logic. Was hoping for 10-1 or better, but was not in agreement with the ML anyway. I decided to use the Dutrow horse (fastest on turf in race up till this point) on the outside with speed to hang on for a piece. Had the exacta but all that did was cover the bet. Was disappointed in the Wolfson horse. and Naturally the Pletcher runner gets a piece and ruins my super.
Well done ROTW. Best one in terms of rationale and reasoning in quite some time.
The problem with taking a position before a race is that the way a race is bet usually determines the way I\'ll play the race. I am never absolute on any bet before the race. I always look for value. That\'s why it\'s so hard to take a position 12 hours before a race and make it Gospel.
NC Tony