Jazil\'s race, taken together with the performance by Sweetnorthernsaint in the Preakness, lends credence to the theory that the rail was not the place to be in the Derby.
I don\'t understand what Gomez was thinking taking the long way around the the first turn on Bob and John. I\'m not alone:
Todd Pletcher, trainer: \"We had a rough trip with Bluegrass Cat. He lost a lot of ground on the first turn. He never stopped trying. Sunriver had a good trip. He dug in and tried hard. He ran a big race. Fractions were about where I thought they would be. I know sometimes, the strategy on the first turn is to stay out in the middle of the track, but basically, every race has been won on the rail all day. So, it was kind of a strange tactic.\"
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=64360&subsec=2
Bit,
What about the horses than ran ok on the rail that day.I am fairly certain that you will find more than a few runners that ran along the inside and ran close to their norm. The 1st and last race winners were rail all the way and Sacred Light,Pussycat Doll,BGC all raced towards the inside in different races.
Jerry confirmed, I think, that the rail was ok after reviewing derby day.
Mike
Miff -
You could well be right. While I watched the Derby Day card, I certainly didn\'t make any detailed notes that would allow me to argue that the rail was or wasn\'t bad. I\'m just throwing out the observation (based on a ridiculously small sample) that the two horses who I know to have made sustained moves along the rail in the Derby both ran much better races the next time out. Further, the fact that they were able to make those sustained moves in a large field indicates that a lot of jocks were staying off the rail.
I would also point out that TGJB has a limited number of options. He either designates the rail as dead or he doesn\'t. In real life, you have to expect that a continuum of possibilities exists; the rail could be slightly disfavored, but not so bad as to make the disadvantage obvious to the figuremaker.
There are also a couple of other issues that I see here. First, as I believe TGJB has previously pointed out, different observers may count paths differently. They may differ on far the inside horse has to be off the rail before he is in the \"2\" path. From TG\'s perspective, the primary consideration is getting the relationship between the horses right, not determining which path is favored.
Second, I believe TGJB has data on paths on the turns, not on the straightaways. I assume that the banking on the turns is different from that on the straightaways, so that the drainage to or from the rail also varies.
Bit,
For TG, a group of horses showing off\'s or x\'s, that ran inside, would be the determining factor as JB explained to me.
Mike
Weren\'t Sacred Light and Pussycat Doll beaten favorites that day? Sacred Light was a non-threatening 2nd and PD looked like a winner until she went to the rail in the stretch. And they were both beaten by horses who stayed well out in the middle of the track.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jazil\'s race, taken together with the performance
> by Sweetnorthernsaint in the Preakness, lends
> credence to the theory that the rail was not the
> place to be in the Derby.
Clearly
> I don\'t understand what Gomez was thinking taking
> the long way around the the first turn on Bob and
> John. I\'m not alone:
>
> Todd Pletcher, trainer: \"We had a rough trip with
> Bluegrass Cat. He lost a lot of ground on the
> first turn. He never stopped trying. Sunriver had
> a good trip. He dug in and tried hard. He ran a
> big race. Fractions were about where I thought
> they would be. I know sometimes, the strategy on
> the first turn is to stay out in the middle of the
> track, but basically, every race has been won on
> the rail all day. So, it was kind of a strange
> tactic.\"
>
My suggestion to Toddini is that he review the Charts. There were a couple of inside wins. There were a lot more wide trip wins and wide trip placings. The placing horses in the Belmont Stakes all went wide. Anything that ran near the rail in the Belmont languished. Granted the rail horses were not big factor horses. Because Bushfire won from inside in the previous race that shouldn\'t be cause for dismissing how well the wide horses did. She may have won by a half pole with a different path. In that regard she may be sitting on a fatigued race next.
The best case for Blue Cat may be that he got down near the rail when he was passed. Need to review the replay.
JJP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Weren\'t Sacred Light and Pussycat Doll beaten
> favorites that day? Sacred Light was a
> non-threatening 2nd and PD looked like a winner
> until she went to the rail in the stretch. And
> they were both beaten by horses who stayed well
> out in the middle of the track.
Pussycat Doll won, but did so from off the rail.
Scared Light pretty much ran up the rail as the favorite and was beaten by Nolan\'s Cat.
Joint Effort, (Winner of the Acorn), ran essentially up the rail and won by 3, which was a similar path to the Acorn, where she just prevailed.
The perfecta was filled out in final race of the day by runners that essentially ran from the rail. It was a sprint and Barbados was the winner. Not sure he\'s come back yet. In fact tabbed him and the second place horse as horses to watch and this thread reminded my that I was neglectful after a disasterous Derby. Joint Effort did very well post her Derby Day rail trip. In fact she appears to have won upon another questionable rail.
Otherwise, the results indicated Wide was the place to be.
I may have mixed up Pussycat Doll and Behaving Badly. The winner was wide throughout in that race.
FWIW, it was Bushfire, not Joint Effort, who won the Acorn. For some reason, Bushfire gets no respect.