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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Michael D. on June 09, 2006, 04:05:33 PM

Title: Belmont
Post by: Michael D. on June 09, 2006, 04:05:33 PM
i though B&J would be a sneaky pick, but now that he\'s 5-1, there\'s not a lot of value.

i liked the move from \'5\' to \'3\', then to \'0.5\' on his derby march. put a line through the derby (espn told us to). i think he was completely cranked for the wood, and had little left at the end, so it\'s unlikely he\'s topping that effort soon, but he does have the look of a horse that might get the 12f if rated well. again, i don\'t like the odds, but i like post four with three closers drawn inside. a run in the \'2\' range maybe?

bluegrass could be tough. he\'s a solid one paced animal with a big heart (outstanding pedigree on bottom). JR might have his hand forced a bit early with the post. my father likes this horse a lot, and he hits this race 50% of the time. jimbo had him at huge futures odds in the derby, i\'m guessing he likes him here as well.

sunriver is good. could be best. i like pletcher on more than three weeks though.

sacred light is a plodder that might get a piece.

the recent maiden winner is well bred on bottom.

........

so i guess its B&J over the rest, without a lot of confidence.

good luck everyone!!

Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: gohorse10 on June 09, 2006, 09:43:35 PM
  Steppenwolfer has a classic work on 6/02 1:10.1B. This horse will definitely run his race. He will love the distance & the big belmont track. His #\'s are good enough to win the race also.
   The bet use Steppenwolfer up & down with the 2-4-7-9 in ex & tri. It looks like JB has the race wright.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: SoCalMan2 on June 10, 2006, 01:49:16 AM
Anybody worried about High Finance?  He looks to me like lone speed which can be deadly in a race like this. Also, if you look at his company lines and pull out Bernardini and Showing Up, he all of a sudden looks a lot better on the form.  I agree that on the figs he is slower than the main contenders, but he has never bounced so there is not telling where his \'bottom\' is so to speak. If he continues to improve and does get a rail trip both turns on an easy lead, I think he will be tough to catch.  I note that his grandpa (Conquistador Cielo) did pretty nicely in this race moving from a one turn mile at Belmont into the Run for the Carnations.  Of course, the fact that he has never been two turns before creates questions, but I also think that it aids him in taking command early.  All the other horses have been running in two turn races which tends to dull early speed since you have to get ready for a turn right away.  Finally, a note on karma -- this race use to be OWNED by Woody Stephens.  Today, they re-christen the Riva Ridge as the Woody.  Today, a grandson of Conquistador Cielo, Woody\'s first in his famous 5 peat, is the only vestige reminder of the Woodman in today\'s race.  Finally, High Finance is a Woody type of horse -- he reminds me of some of Woody\'s Belmont horses. If Woody were with us now and was handicapping this race, who do you think he would pick? Anyway, that\'s my two cents from Moscow.  Almost forgot, if the track is dry, Deputy Glitters DOES look tough.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: brokerstip on June 10, 2006, 03:26:33 AM
Michael,

Always appreciate your insights.
Myself, I have no idea what I will do with this race.
Probably watch the early Pletchers, Dutrows and Frankels to see how they are running early.

My brother is John and I am Bob. Having attended every Belmont since Canonero II, I have deciphered a trend.
My brother and I never cash the Belmont together...lol
So, since he is most defintely in the B&J camp, I have the ability to destroy this horse\'s chances if I follow your lead....I will consider offers not to bet...lol.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the day.

Bob
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: toppled on June 10, 2006, 05:47:04 AM
Sunriver wins this race, probably by open lengths.  I liked him in the Florida Derby & in that race he came the closest to Barbaro than any of these others have.  
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on June 10, 2006, 06:33:29 AM
gohorse10 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Steppenwolfer has a classic work on 6/02 1:10.1B.
> This horse will definitely run his race. He will
> love the distance & the big belmont track. His
> #\'s are good enough to win the race also.
>    The bet use Steppenwolfer up & down with
> the 2-4-7-9 in ex & tri. It looks like JB has
> the race wright.
>

To me the big issue is the surface. Been out of the loop for a day or two, what has the weather been like at Elmont and what are you New Yawkers expecting for today? What degree of wet are we talking about?

thx

CtC
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on June 10, 2006, 06:42:53 AM
well its looking dry with chance of wet...

a wet surface could certainly change things, but its wetter here. Where is all the water they discussed two days ago?

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/hourbyhour//USNY0464?par=earthlink&site=www.earthlink.com&promo=hourly&cm_ven=Earthlink&cm_cat=www.earthlink.com&cm_pla=WeatherDetails&cm_ite=CityPage
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: miff on June 10, 2006, 07:04:32 AM
Racing Office calling the Main Fast(dry) and still waiting to call the Turf,but probably Soft. Rained last night at Belmont, pretty good.

Yesterday one grass race was geek called at minus 220, ie 11 lengths slower than norm, raw time.
Dirt yesterday got fast and dry by the 6th yesterday.

Very breezy and sunny for today and  some moisture should get sucked out.

Good Luck.


Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: AnonymousDegenerate on June 10, 2006, 07:08:07 AM
High Finance is not lone speed, you are looking at his call position in a NW1x race instead of what you should be looking at, pace figures from something like BRIS.  Half the field (including bob/john and bluegrass cat) have went as fast as he has in a route in the early part of the race.

Weather calls for sustained winds of 25mph out of the NWN, will this be a headwind or tailwind in the homestretch?  That could be a factor today.

I like a EX box of B/J, BC, and Magic Carpet Ride.  Include Sunriver and OSA for 3rd.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: Michael D. on June 10, 2006, 07:10:59 AM
socal,

i can\'t play a son of talk is money out of a cielo mare to improve going 12f.

b&j, both DG\'s, and blue all figure to be tracking within a few lengths.

not a bad stab at 10-1 though.

good luck.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: Michael D. on June 10, 2006, 07:22:04 AM
thanks Bob,

if it was a bob or john, i would say stay away.

however, it is bob AND john.

this could be the year.

good luck with your bets.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: imallin on June 10, 2006, 08:09:50 AM
Bad management on this horse...he\'s going into the Belmont never having competed in a 2 turn race. Also, the way he\'s been managed makes me think he\'s a sprinter...why would you turn back a \'true router\' from 1 mile to 7F? Doesn\'t make sense.

True routers who can\'t sprint at all usually have one sprint prep and then its right into route races for the rest of their career....this horse has never been in a 2 turn race....

If a horse is \'crying out for a mile and a half\' they usually don\'t run in 5 \'sprint\' races as their first 5 career starts. (one turn mile=elongated sprint)

Not for me...especially with the owner being a syndicate that wants to add \'we RAN in the Belmont\' to their resume. They ran a horse in the Derby with no shot and now they have this misplaced entry.

Title: Current Belmont Conditions
Post by: dlf on June 10, 2006, 08:11:06 AM
     Saturday, June 10, 2006        
   
Weather & Conditions

Weather:CLOUDY 67
Track Condition: FAST
Turf Condition: YIELDING
Turf Races: 7, 10,12
Belmont Widener Rail Setting : 0 ft
Belmont Inner Rail Setting : 0 ft
Carryover: None - takeout 15%
NOTES: RACE #7 NO SHOW OR TRIFECTA /
Scratches
Race    Horse Number    Horse Name
2    1    Spring At Last
2    9    Unbridled Danger
2    10    Glory At Sea
4    2b POE    New Testament
4    3    Long Lost Pal
4    5    Cat\'s Lad
7    3    Wend
7    4    Bright Abundance
8    5    Keyed Entry
10    6    Interpatation
12    12    King Carter
13    5    Gottahaveacat
Late Scratches
Race    Horse Number    Horse Name
Late Jockey Changes
Race    Horse Number    Change
04    1    CHANTAL SUTHERLAND
12    4    JULIAN LePAROUX
12    9    KENT DESORMEAUX 118lbs
Jockey, Overweight & Misc. Changes
Race    Horse Number    Change
06    4    +2
06    6    +1
   
   

 

 

 

 
Title: Re: Current Belmont Conditions
Post by: Michael D. on June 10, 2006, 08:34:16 AM
espn did a piece on b&j\'s bad derby trip last night, now the talking heads at nyra are all over the bad trip.

these same guys couldn\'t stop talking about bro derek\'s bad derby trip, and put him on top in the preakness.

i don\'t like any of these. i wish there was a talented new shooter here.
Title: Re: Belmont
Post by: Michael D. on June 10, 2006, 09:08:58 AM
AD,

looks like tailwind.

might want to be covered up a bit down the backstretch.