So, nobody is going to top Kev\'s post before the Oaks, but I do take a little bit of satisfaction in the fact that my first post here said the BG was a total throw out and the real question was whether BC\'s Thoro-pattern could be taken at face value. I lost $6k trying to hit the super, but more than covered in cover tri\'s.
I\'ve read what amounts to a growing chorus of reasons why Barbaro is certain to bounce and lose. As much as anyone who posts here I am a slave to data, analysis, patterns, etc... But the obvious question seems to be eluding everyone;
In the 31 horse\'s who ran neg before June 30th, or in any KY Derby winner EVER, or contender EVER...find me a horse who has run 6 races in his lifetime, all at two turns, half on the grass, half on the dirt, who is undefeated, who wins by the Derby by the largest margin since 1946, and runs the best Derby TG fig in their history.......
There isn\'t one even close. Christ, the turf/dirt thing is unbelievable in itself!!! Let me get this straight; the fastest Derby winner ever (on TG) who wins by the largest margin since 1946, starts off his career 3 for 3 on the turf, twice in stakes???? Are you kidding me????
Does he figure to bounce? Yes. Does BD look tough? Yes. Does anything he\'s done so far figure?? No.
It\'s called an \'outlier\'. Like Michael Jordan. Like Wayne Gretzky. Like Jerry Rice. Using the past to predict the future is a smart thing to do, but it isn\'t always right. I\'m as big a fan of anyone of beating odds on favorites in the Superfecta, but we should all be rooting for this horse.
I think he wins. Chuckles, your pick is?????
and you can add.....
-put to rest the \"5 weeks from the Derby angle\"
-came within one day of ending the \"3 starts as a 3yo\" angle
- was one of the 7% to run a new top in the Derby..
I know we are skeptical bunch by nature, but this is taking it a bit too far, don\'t you think??
-has tactical speed
-closes strong regardless of surface
-can get a distance of ground without question
Seriously, could you come up with a better resume for a Triple Crown Winner??
I know, I know....neg fig, big move, bounce.
The people on this site-- especially those of us involved with Victory Gallop-- never bought into the 2 starts business. We\'ve also done studies-- mentioned in the Derby seminar-- that show that horses that only have 2 3yo starts are MORE likely to run a new top in the Derby.
As for 7%, in this case it was 5%-- Barbaro ran the only new top.
None of which is in conflict with what I said in the seminar about Barbaro. We measure performance by TG figures here, not wins, and you\'re going to have to explain why having ability on 2 surfaces changes things.
They all look great when they run their tops. He may be one of the 20% that don\'t go back at least 2 points, the 1 out of 3 that don\'t go back 4 points or more. But at the prices, I\'ll take my chances.
By the way, nobody has talked about the real X factors-- Solis and Desormeaux. One\'s a passenger, the other is capable of anything at any time. And when was the last time Prado was inside horses?
Going home.
Lets call it having ability on 3 surfaces; G1 on Dirt, G1 on off track; G2 on turf.
It\'s exceptionally rare that a horse can show G1 form on turf and dirt. Point is, this horse has handled EVERYTHING thrown at him, and he has had FAR more thrown at him than the average Derby winner.
I don\'t argue the numbers that say a bounce is likely. Considering the odds, betting against him is the \'smart\' play. I\'m just saying that the list of factors in his favor is getting awfully long, and the list of factors against him awfully short......
Yeah, Smarty Jones. And I didn\'t root for him. Watching Birdstone go by him was a religious experience.
As far as I\'m concerned, all Barbaro has proven in comparison is that he can run one fast race with no adversity; a fraction of what Smarty did. So what. I had Borrego in 04 and lost by 20. I\'ll have Bernardini tomorrow and he could lose by 20. There\'s just no fun jumping on the bandwagon at 3/5
JB-
I\'m sure you\'ve considered this, but if you combine the \"racehorses are getting faster\" evidence with the \"negative number before June 30 of 3YO year\" evidence, the implications are fairly staggering.
As in no more triple crown winners. You\'d need maybe one standout horse in an exceptionally poor crop. But the fact that we are seeing Neg numbers at 2turns from Cal Bred 3Yo\'s in January, combined with all your evidence on horses getting faster, obviously leads one to the conclusion that we will be seeing more, not less negative numbers.
And if those negative numbers cause large backward moves......it begins to look an awful lot like a \'Limit Function\'
tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> -has tactical speed
> -closes strong regardless of surface
> -can get a distance of ground without question
>
>
> Seriously, could you come up with a better resume
> for a Triple Crown Winner??
>
> I know, I know....neg fig, big move, bounce.
If I could only count the number of people I have interviewed with great resumes that I would up shredding the minute they walked out of my office. Geez, he won the Derby. I couldn\'t give a damn if he won as a 2 yo on asphalt... he has to win the Preakness and Belmont (which unless there has been a change, ain\'t on grass against 2 yr olds).
Smarty Jones (who i wasn\'t a fan of) was much more scary than this horse simply because he had run freakishly fast his entire career. Barbaro is a one-hit wonder right now... one super fast race... and please, I don\'t care about his turf races.
tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, nobody is going to top Kev\'s post before the
> Oaks, but I do take a little bit of satisfaction
> in the fact that my first post here said the BG
> was a total throw out and the real question was
> whether BC\'s Thoro-pattern could be taken at face
> value. I lost $6k trying to hit the super, but
> more than covered in cover tri\'s.
>
> I\'ve read what amounts to a growing chorus of
> reasons why Barbaro is certain to bounce and lose.
> As much as anyone who posts here I am a slave to
> data, analysis, patterns, etc... But the obvious
> question seems to be eluding everyone;
>
> In the 31 horse\'s who ran neg before June 30th, or
> in any KY Derby winner EVER, or contender
> EVER...find me a horse who has run 6 races in his
> lifetime, all at two turns, half on the grass,
> half on the dirt, who is undefeated, who wins by
> the Derby by the largest margin since 1946, and
> runs the best Derby TG fig in their
> history.......
>
> There isn\'t one even close. Christ, the turf/dirt
> thing is unbelievable in itself!!! Let me get
> this straight; the fastest Derby winner ever (on
> TG) who wins by the largest margin since 1946,
> starts off his career 3 for 3 on the turf, twice
> in stakes???? Are you kidding me????
>
> Does he figure to bounce? Yes. Does BD look
> tough? Yes. Does anything he\'s done so far
> figure?? No.
>
> It\'s called an \'outlier\'. Like Michael Jordan.
> Like Wayne Gretzky. Like Jerry Rice. Using the
> past to predict the future is a smart thing to do,
> but it isn\'t always right. I\'m as big a fan of
> anyone of beating odds on favorites in the
> Superfecta, but we should all be rooting for this
> horse.
>
> I think he wins. Chuckles, your pick is?????
Honestly, I don\'t have a strong opinion on the race. I will bet small attempting to win big.
Lets assume Barbaro is the Super Horse I \"suspected\" Sinister Minister might be. He is going to be 3-5 or there abouts. If someone bets AGAINST Barbaro and he wins Who is going to lament: \"Dayum I could have gotten 3-5 on the Triple Crown winner in the Preakness\"? Certainly not I. Lets assume you do key him in first. Who you gonnna put in second and third and get them to finish in those slots? I just don\'t see exceptional value in favoring Barbaro.
Additionally, the public is reaching fever pitch on Barbaro. Matz is talking confident too and if you\'re looking to score a big upset you have to like that kind of talk. Matz is certainly an exceptional man but he puts his pants on the same way every morning as guys like Bobby Frankel and Todd Pletcher and I don\'t think those two have any Preaknesses either.
My strategy will be to beat Barbaro out of as much as possible. With luck, I think he could miss the Tri, hoping to keep him out of the Super is probably too much to ask, but I will bet that way as well. To my eye Brother Derek and SNS had horror trips in the Derby and huge excuses. Especially SnS. Furthermore, its my opinion that Barbaro\'s win was over inflated by path. My concern is the pace. I think it will be set by Like Now and the trainer is very good right now. It may be warmer for Bro Derek than he\'d prefer and SnS, Bernardini, Diabolical and Barbaro figure to lay close too.
I disagree with Brad Free about most of what he puts in print. I really don\'t think he can handicap to save his life, but he did write a blurb today about Greeley\'s Legacy that I tend to agree with. I\'ll have him in second, but it won\'t be with Barbaro up top. By the way Free picked Wandering Boy today in the Special. He was odds on too.
Flushed
It\'s also no fun in \"Flushing Money\" Down the toilet either. I\'m sitting it out and watching this time. No Value.
NC Tony
Silver Train
NC Tony
Wandering Boy is a Kee Freak.
NC Tony
Jerry
I am interested in your comments on Solis and Desourmeaux, can you expound ?
John
t mac-- if they switch the race to the grass, I\'ll be all over Barbaro.
I make Barbaro about 10% to pair up the number (we\'ll give him a 100% chance of winning if he does), 30% chance of backing up around 2 points( 50% chance of winning if he does, so add 15%), and 5% of winning if he backs up further than that. That gives him a 30% chance of winning overall (2.3-1) which makes him at least as likely as anyone else-- and a huge underlay. I also make him about 50% to be out of the top 3, between a significant bounce and a potentially wide trip.
All of which make him both the most likely winner and a huge bet-against (I wonder if Chris is reading this).
Tony, I\'m surprised at you. Aside from the above, your 2 week comment (same for everybody) is dead wrong. First of all, it\'s not-- it\'s worse for horses off new tops, and some horses need more time in general than others. Matz has been spacing this horse\'s races-- you think if they asked him when he wanted them to run the Preakness he would have said this week?
Second of all, any negative factor (or random factor) is a much bigger issue for a short priced horse than a longshot, because your margin for error is much less. If you are betting longshots, chaos is your friend-- I don\'t think you would want to take odds-on on a horse running in slop for the first time, or over grass. Here we have a group of horses going on short rest, increasing the chance that they will X-- and that random factor has to work against the favorite.
JB-
What about \"horses getting faster\" + \"Neg # before June 30 of 3yo year\" ?
T mac-- it is something to think about. I had a hard time explaining to my British friend that Barbaro would have a better chance of pulling it off if he had won by a hard-fought half length in the Derby.
But SJ could have done it if he had one less prep race-- he strung together 4 huge ones, but only 2 came in the TC. Best 3yo of all time.
But note how strong a 2yo top he had-- it meant even that ridiculous 3yo top represented only 4 points of development.
Right. So in all likelihood a horse would have to get down to a 1 or better as a 2YO