Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: SoCalMan2 on May 19, 2006, 07:45:26 AM

Title: The case for Diabolical
Post by: SoCalMan2 on May 19, 2006, 07:45:26 AM
Why can\'t Diabolical do well here?  If you ignore his turf racing (which should not be applicable), he has a beautiful line.  Although he is definitely slower than a lot of these coming in, he is also easily the horse most eligible to make a big jump up.  While the three coming out of the Derby are clearly faster than him even with a nice jump up, he seems the best of the rest to me.  I realize that some people will say the breeding is no good for the distance, but I have seen that Pimlico strip carry shortwinded sprinters a lot further than they could go on any other track.  Also, I would be concerned about it if I were taking 20-1 on him, but at 40-1 or 50-1 I feel I am being compensated for the risk of him not having the wind.  The big problem is that I cannot figure how to capitalize on him given the absurdities of Maryland pari-mutuel rules.  If the big three meltdown (not unheard of) he would make a nice win ticket, though.
Title: Re: The case for Diabolical
Post by: Michael D. on May 19, 2006, 07:53:26 AM
socal,

second dam is plenty of grace, a long winded mare i had in the \'92 diana at the spa. so there is some bottom there, but still a bit short for 1 3/16.

drop the turf, as you say, and i like the line as well. fast maiden win, too fast early, rank, then a very nice \'4.5\' when stretching out for the first time as a two year old. fast sprint this year, then back to top going 1m last without being used. if this race were 1m or 1 1/16m, i would feel comfortable predicting a big new top. the distance, even at pim, worries me though.