Check out Beyer(drf wed.) referencing TG ground loss re Bro Derek.His comments that the TG Fig for BD project him a winner of the previous 20 derbies is tough to swallow.
Does anyone know if BD would have won the last 20 derbies on Rags figs?
Mike
Miff Beyer said a majority of the last twenty derbies, not all of them. If \'Derek ran a TG of say 2 he would have won about 14 of the last twenty. BBB
BBB,
BD ran neg 0.5(minus one half) if I remember correctly.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BBB,
>
>
> BD ran neg 0.5(minus one half) if I remember
> correctly.
>
>
> Mike
Thats what I recall on TFigs.
He obviously ran a dead game race. He never game up and never quite trying despite the horror trip.
In hindsight Barbaro is a good horse. Keying him in First might be the play, but beating him will provide the return.
He may have some trouble passing a loose Bro Derek. I tend to think he will.
Ctc,
What I don\'t get, and maybe someone can explain this to me. I keep hearing that Barbaro is the \"Bounce Candidate\" off of his new lifetime top, and he\'s never raced off of a two week layoff. It\'s been said - he had a rather easy trip vis a vis BD or SNS. Brother Derek or SNS have never raced on two weeks rest either. And we all agree BD had a very troubled and difficult trip to get back to his previous top? Those facts make him a move up candidate? And if you believe SNS bounced in last off of the prior effort, now off two weeks rest is he a move up candidate now or is more regression expected? I\'ve seen horses rebound, but his trip looked brutal and he was clearly struggling coming home.
I think a horse like Like Now showed lots of heart in last at Kee but question if he can handle the extra 1/16th. He\'s fresher and the better exacta option .
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> What I don\'t get, and maybe someone can explain
> this to me. I keep hearing that Barbaro is the
> \"Bounce Candidate\" off of his new lifetime top,
> and he\'s never raced off of a two week layoff.
> It\'s been said - he had a rather easy trip vis a
> vis BD or SNS. Brother Derek or SNS have never
> raced on two weeks rest either. And we all agree
> BD had a very troubled and difficult trip to get
> back to his previous top? Those facts make him a
> move up candidate? And if you believe SNS bounced
> in last off of the prior effort, now off two weeks
> rest is he a move up candidate now or is more
> regression expected? I\'ve seen horses rebound, but
> his trip looked brutal and he was clearly
> struggling coming home.
>
> I think a horse like Like Now showed lots of heart
> in last at Kee but question if he can handle the
> extra 1/16th. He\'s fresher and the better exacta
> option .
>
> NC Tony
I actually forgot Like Now was in the race. That alters the Bro Derek front end scenario.
Theres a couple reasons to believe Barbaro may not run as well. First off, he ran on the ideal part of the track. Horses that were down inside for whatever reason did not run their race or faded late. I\'m not 100% confident in that. I\'m still reviewing it, but the Dead Rail the day before appears more settled. To my mind dead rails cannot always be dismissed in days subsequent to them making their presence known. But Barbaro\'s effort even path aided was big. He was coming in on Five weeks rest. They clearly want to give him time. This time, he doesn\'t get to chose his timing. He has to run. I count that as a negative with this horse.
He also was the beneficiary of what was a blistering pace and he got first run on the tiring leaders. It could happen again if Bro Derek and Like Now hook up. But I don\'t foresee the horror trips again for SNS and Bro Derek. SNS was extremely unlucky last. Is he good enough? I think he is, but I\'m even more convinced now the Illinois Derby was a faster race than everyone thinks and I agree he may be off form from it now.
We\'ve mentioned the good horses. Theres Bernardini coming in as well and in all candor I don\'t have a handle on him yet. My view is that Barbaro is not 6-7 lengths better than these and I will ask him to do it again. That said, When Point Given ran out of the Derby Exacta for me I tried to beat him in every subsequent race he beat me every time trying to do it.
Barbaro clearly isn\'t 6 lengths superior. I\'m not sure yet he\'s not another Point Given though and he was on form in his last.
Tony Like Now is a multiple maiden claimer in a classic race. Brother Derek will benefit by Like Nows presence and walk past him any time he wants, if it is late enough in the race \'Derek is strictly the one to beat. BBB
So Like now is autodismissed because he raced in MDCLM? Do you think the horse knew he was slumming that day?
He did run a game race versus constant pressure against Showing up in LEX and beat the ohh so liked SNS on the engine in the Gotham.
Again I am not sure he gets the extra 1/16 of a mile but he is a game horse.
All you Brother Derek lovers out there, please don\'t make excuses after this race too. I think BD is ready to go Boing. He did have a very very tough race last time out, and through his class gutted out a 4th place finish. Bravo to BD. However he\'s over extended and he too is now coming off of a two week break for the first time after going a mile 3/8\'s in his last race also for the firstime in his life. I don\'t get all of the racing excuse logic being used to support BD while at the same time use the same logic to say barbaro is going to bounce.
Richiebee the \"Logical Song\" by Supertramp come to mind.
NC Tony
Thought I read that Garret Gomez replaced Jara on Like Now, but DRF says no jock has been named?
Gomez is listed in DRF website. Make Like now even more interesting to Ponder.
Also heard it on Attheracesandbeyond yesterday. McGlughlin was on the program and mentioned that the owner wanted a more experienced rider other than Jara and made sure to metion that Jara did nothing wrong.
NCT
It\'s simply a two horse race in my eyes. Barabro grinding out a hard fought win over SNS after being softened by stalking the BD/LN pace. I\'ll bet that accordingly. One big cold exacata BB over SNS and about a $25 exacta box to cover should my hero SNS jump back up.
From a figure perspective, I think Barabaro bounces back to a 2 and still wins with SNS rounding back into form with slightly slower-than-usual a 2 or 3...
My only rock solid prediction is a bounce for BD> He will not hit the board...
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All you Brother Derek lovers out there, please
> don\'t make excuses after this race too. I think BD
> is ready to go Boing. He did have a very very
> tough race last time out, and through his class
> gutted out a 4th place finish. Bravo to BD.
> However he\'s over extended and he too is now
> coming off of a two week break for the first time
> after going a mile 3/8\'s in his last race also for
> the firstime in his life. I don\'t get all of the
> racing excuse logic being used to support BD while
> at the same time use the same logic to say barbaro
> is going to bounce.
>
> Richiebee the \"Logical Song\" by Supertramp come to
> mind.
>
> NC Tony
NC T... Why did BD have a \"very very tough\" race in the Derby? He essentially ran the same as he has the entire year, about a 0. Are you trying to infer that a particular TG figure while being run wide is more taxing than the same number on the rail? Otherwise, I don\'t understand.
The issue isn\'t two weeks in general... the issue is that Barbaro has purposely had very spaced out races and had one race in three months leading into the Derby. This is a radical difference. He\'s going to run more in two weeks than he ran in three months. That is clearly much different than BD\'s campaign, where he has shown that monthly efforts around the 0 range don\'t hurt him. Barbaro now has a 4 1/2 point top into virgin territory with a major change in rest. If you want to bet that at 4-5 be my guest. Also, BD ran about 95 feet farther than he would have on the rail... or less than 1/16 of a mile... not an extra 1/8 of a mile.
Obviously, I don\'t have the numbers of the non-Derby horses yet, but off of general knowledge from their careers, I\'d say it\'s pretty close to 95% against that any of them can win. So, I gotta figure that I would need someone marginally capable to be at least 15 or 20-1 to make it worthwhile.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So Like now is autodismissed because he raced in
> MDCLM? Do you think the horse knew he was
> slumming that day?
>
> He did run a game race versus constant pressure
> against Showing up in LEX
He certainly did and Showing Up was right there with a shot and about a pole to go, but ran out of foundation and stamina all at the same time. However, Showing Up ran a good race in the Derby and Like Now\'s close Lexington loss to him after a pace duel with a good sprinter looks better with time.
> and beat the ohh so
> liked SNS on the engine in the Gotham.
> Again I am not sure he gets the extra 1/16 of a
> mile but he is a game horse.
Don\'t think SnS was on the Engine in the Gotham, but Like Now certainly was. Like Now has to go an additional pole not just a sixteenth. That would generally be a tall order, but the rail at Pimlico has in the past been a very good place to be.
> All you Brother Derek lovers out there, please
> don\'t make excuses after this race too. I think BD
> is ready to go Boing. He did have a very very
> tough race last time out, and through his class
> gutted out a 4th place finish. Bravo to BD.
> However he\'s over extended and he too is now
> coming off of a two week break for the first time
> after going a mile 3/8\'s in his last race also for
> the firstime in his life. I don\'t get all of the
> racing excuse logic being used to support BD while
> at the same time use the same logic to say barbaro
> is going to bounce.
Brother Derek has significantly more foundation than Barbaro. That foundation stretches all the way back to big races as a Two Year Old. Some don\'t think that matters anymore. I guess we\'ll see. He\'s also plenty fast enough to win with a mere regression from Barbaro. Lastly, wide at Pimlico may not be as advantageous to Barbaro as wide was at Churchill. If there was a Churchill outside bias at two turns Derby Day it might be risky to assume Barbaro is going to be able to finish as strongly as he did in the Derby.
Barbaro reminds me of 2001. He might be a good horse. Is he another Point Given? Is he Monarchos again? or is He Seattle Slew 29 years after the fact? We\'ll know more after Saturday.
> Richiebee the \"Logical Song\" by Supertramp come to
> mind.
>
> NC Tony
CTC,
I was inferring to Like Now being on the engine in the Gotham, and yes he has to go another pole in preakness vs Lexington (I concur- my math at work was off today - too many contracts on the brain).
As for this foundation stuff. BD is a California bred - enough said. Both horses will now be approaching their 5th race of the year. Barbaro will be 5 races in 139 days and third race of form cycle in 49 days. Brother Derek will now have raced his 5th race of the year in 126 days and third race in 42 Days and 4th race in 77 days. So since March 4th BD will be racing on avaerge once every 19 days and barbaro will be once every 26 Days. So whats the big deal?.
Think I rather have the horse who may not be \"fully extended\" yet than one who has. And if Barbaro was fully extended that what can you say then about BD?
Again I am not betting the race this weekend. NASCAR in town.
NC Tony
I am not betting the Race!!!
I don\'t see the value. I think BD is ready to bounce. I believe running wide and low takes more out of a horse especially in a race like the Derby
I live in Charlotte NC and will watch the Race at Lowes Motor Speedway Nextel Allstar Race. When in Rome..you know. I will root for Barbaro to win.
Yes I am committing heresey in saying this but running wide and low is not as good as running inside and lower. The factoring in of wide etc brings things on par with each other.
And one last thing it is my belief that the purposly spaced out campaign saves energy to be used later in the triple crown campaign working in Barbaro\'s favor vs what you want to believe as the horse can\'t take it philosophy.
So Barbaro is going for his third race in form cycle in 49 days vs BD going for his fourth race in form cycle in 77, What is all the fuss about?
NC Tony
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------
> Think I rather have the horse who may not be
> \"fully extended\" yet than one who has. And if
> Barbaro was fully extended that what can you say
> then about BD?
Well, at least this will be settled on the track... I\'m not sure how an historic figure of -2 1/2 in the Derby with a four point new top and seven points of development from his 2 yo top is not fully stressed out.
There is such a minute chance that Barbaro is going to pair up that the wager becomes a win bet figuring how far he is going to regress. Will a regression to 0 win... how about a regression back to his secondary top of 1\"...
Hard to take anyone serious who would skip watching racing on Preakness Day to watch cars make left hand turns ;-)
Are you rooting for STP, Viagara, or Home Depot? :-)
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am not betting the Race!!!
>
> I don\'t see the value. I think BD is ready to
> bounce. I believe running wide and low takes more
> out of a horse especially in a race like the
> Derby
>
> I live in Charlotte NC and will watch the Race at
> Lowes Motor Speedway Nextel Allstar Race. When in
> Rome..you know. I will root for Barbaro to win.
>
> Yes I am committing heresey in saying this but
> running wide and low is not as good as running
> inside and lower. The factoring in of wide etc
> brings things on par with each other.
>
> And one last thing it is my belief that the
> purposly spaced out campaign saves energy to be
> used later in the triple crown campaign working in
> Barbaro\'s favor vs what you want to believe as
> the horse can\'t take it philosophy.
>
> So Barbaro is going for his third race in form
> cycle in 49 days vs BD going for his fourth race
> in form cycle in 77, What is all the fuss about?
>
> NC Tony
>
>
ezgoer89 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard to take anyone serious who would skip
> watching racing on Preakness Day to watch cars
> make left hand turns ;-)
>
> Are you rooting for STP, Viagara, or Home Depot?
> :-)
>
No More STP (now Cheerio\'s) or VIAGRA (now AAA) CARS anymore. I have customers who like to go so.......Business is Business as they say. But there will be at least another 200,000 people there too. They say that during race day the Speedway becomes the third largest city population in the state.
Maybe I\'ll be saving money. ;-)
NC Tony
PS I\'m rooting for Brown!!! What can Brown do for you???
> NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I am not betting the Race!!!
> >
> > I don\'t see the value. I think BD is ready
> to
> > bounce. I believe running wide and low takes
> more
> > out of a horse especially in a race like the
> > Derby
> >
> > I live in Charlotte NC and will watch the
> Race at
> > Lowes Motor Speedway Nextel Allstar Race.
> When in
> > Rome..you know. I will root for Barbaro to
> win.
> >
> > Yes I am committing heresey in saying this
> but
> > running wide and low is not as good as
> running
> > inside and lower. The factoring in of wide
> etc
> > brings things on par with each other.
> >
> > And one last thing it is my belief that the
> > purposly spaced out campaign saves energy to
> be
> > used later in the triple crown campaign
> working in
> > Barbaro\'s favor vs what you want to believe
> as
> > the horse can\'t take it philosophy.
> >
> > So Barbaro is going for his third race in
> form
> > cycle in 49 days vs BD going for his fourth
> race
> > in form cycle in 77, What is all the fuss
> about?
> >
> > NC Tony
> >
> >
>
>
>
I agree- it will all be settled on the track, and will be a great race either way. Your points are valid.
So let me hypothosize then, If both Barb and BD regress, I think SNS was backing up badly in last so I don\'t think he\'s a player this time either? Who then?
Bernadini a horse with 3 lifetime starts and never gone 2 turns yet?
Diabolical/Hemmingway\'s Key/ Greeley\'s Legaxy and Plantinum Couple are all too slow and hoping to cach a check as far as I can tell. Can a case be made for any of these?
NC Tony
\"But there will be at least 200,000 other people (at the NASCAR race)...\"
125,000 of them are related to each other, right?
I\'d hate to be around when they all say Good Night - Waltons Style ...
Has The Derby has become like Nascar with overcrowded tracks that were not designed for the
speed and volume of today\'s contestants ?
* Nice Thoro-Graph Preakness analysis , I like the strategy in Jerry\'s race overview . Honestly , I had a difficult excersise evaluating BD\'s pattern and whether he was showing signs of a deteriorating pattern headed for a K or if there was something left in the tank . SNS\'s upside for that last one is that he should be well rested for Saturday ...
None are related to me and very few Italians thats for sure!!!
NC Tony
You\'ll find most northerners appreciate the delicate nature of the situation and perdicament of the southern states ...
In addition to Jerry\'s play in his race analysis overview for the Preakness , I\'m playing a key w/ Brother Derek over Like Now + Greeley\'s Legacy .
The South\'s gonna\' Rise again - South Brooklyn that is ...