...are in ROTW.
Looks like Ragozin used bad ground on, of all things, the winner. I would love to know what ground they used for the first 4 horses (for example) that had Barbaro running that much faster than the others. Must have had Barbaro too wide.
As for Friedman\'s dead rail post, here\'s a hint-- Len, look at which races on Friday the good figures on the rail were run in, and see if you can see a pattern.
TG SNS - 6.75 pts back
Other guy SNS - 9.25 pts back
TG Deputy Glitters - 4.5 points back
Other guy Deputy Glitters - 6.75 pts back
they do have the winner going wider, by quite a bit.
I was shocked when I saw the equineline chart indicated Barbaro was 5-wide!!??
I had him no worse than three wide either turn. The four-point spread between Barbaro and Bro Derek on The Sheets was more than I expected.
We used 2.5 first turn and 343 second turn for Barbaro-- we had 3 guys do it, and they were all close. Love to know what Ragozin used, but you would also have to know what they used for the others as well-- some guys call them all tight, some wider. It\'s the relationship that matters.
Ill-bred Wrote:
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> I was shocked when I saw the equineline chart
> indicated Barbaro was 5-wide!!??
>
> I had him no worse than three wide either turn.
> The four-point spread between Barbaro and Bro
> Derek on The Sheets was more than I expected.
I thought it was closer to 3 wide both bends and believe that wide was not a bad place to be at all.
The only question I have with the Derby TFigs is the number of pairs with increased distance and trouble. Maybe its just me but that sure is hard to fathom.
What the TFigs do tend to indicate is that Barbaro, though a good horse, towers over this crop by virtue of bounce and running wide. Those are edges which might be hard to hold for the duration of the campaign.
To my eye Barbaro\'s biggest plus was the late energy he exhibited. We\'ll see if path was part of that as well in the next one.
We made no adjustments within the race to get to any pairs, we never do. The options were to add or subtract to all of them, and as you can see there is no other option remotely as good.
As usual, they didn\'t run new tops-- just the winner. Whether it\'s what they are put through just to get there or the circumstances of the race itself, they run far fewer than stake level 3yos do in other races.
Which goes to the point we raised in the seminar about 2 starts. Contrary to popular belief, less is more-- Matz did effectively the same thing with the spacing, and if the 1/1 race had been a day earlier Barbaro would have qualified for 2 preps as a 3yo.
From examining all three figs, TG, Beyer and Rags,I would say they are fairly close in agreement except for ground(perhaps) with Rags and a half point faster Beyer to TG.
Given that race, I say thats close enough by all.This further boggles ones mind as to why there so many other figs made by these top fig guys that are far apart.
Mike
Lots of people seem to be aware of the Bro Derek derby troubles, but the hidden race of Deputy Glitters could be noteworthy. Consider the campaign of same-sire Ten Most Wanted in 2003 and toss DG\'s ill-fated Wood;
- both jumped up (more so TMW) achieving similar new tops around the same time in spring derby preps
- both regressed about a point in the derby
- TMW skipped Preakness and set new neg # top jumping up over 2 points in the Belmont
- TMW was 6-1 in derby
- DG was 60-1 in derby
Considering his tactical speed and ability to relax, and the possiblility of very tough Preakness on the others, DG could be one to watch for in the 3rd jewel at a fat price, even if necessary to play under a destined 1-5 Barbaro. I cannot find or recall anything about stable\'s intentions but can only hope he\'s fine and they\'re pointing.
JB... many thanks for posting these figs, and the whole archive section in general (including the helpful betting guidelines)
See last paragraph of Steve Haskin\'s Preakness Report (link below). I think you will be pleased...
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33516
I did read that Albertrani is planning on entering Deputy Glitters in the Belmont. I suppose plans could change depending on what Bernardini does in the Preakness.
It will be interesting to see if they change jocks. I don\'t know if its the horse or Lezcano, but there seems to be a preference for keeping DG outside of horses. Even in the Wood, with plenty of room on the inside, Lezcano tried (but failed) to get him outside going into the first turn. Of course, the penalty for being wide won\'t be as great in the Belmont as it was in the Derby.
thanks for the link, and good call; very pleased, especially with the mentioned possibilities of Steppenwolfer & Jazil who I\'ll put in the category of \"usually overbet in the Belmont deep closers\" like the former\'s sire.
Gotta start practicing the reverse-jinx rain dance though, if the Champagne & Wood are any indication of DG\'s adaptibility to off tracks. At the very least, there seems to be little chance he\'ll be one of the wiseguy choices with his profile. Long ways away, but good stuff.
I put DG on my Watch List after the Derby for the same reasons you stated. But I was really hoping that Henny Hughes would run in the Belmont, as he had his first official work early this week.
However, I read in DRF that they are going to wait for the end of Belmont or Saratoga to start him. I liked him for the Belmont because of Hennessy and his tactical speed, don\'t feel the same way about the Travers.
The Derby numbers are certainly alot to think about and Thanks once again to Jerry and TG Staff for the #1 excellent work .
Just a couple of sunday morning observations - One would think the winner pairs next but off a 3 pt top and is officially out of his forgers pattern . A bounce is coming at some point and on short rest , prohibrative . Not to say whether or not Barbaro win\'s next time in the Preakness , becouse that\'s another story . SNS and a few others definately threw in a clunker\'s in the Derby and I\'m having a difficult time making a solid case for most of them on 2 weeks rest .
I\'m going to let the odds board help me decide ( more than it normally does ) if I bet the race .
Storm Treasure and Seaside Retreat seem like they have something more . Sinister bounced big off that first # 3 and the Derby number was threw the roof - but , running back next would not be too unlikely or would it ?