As we wait for the Derby figures, I have to say I am surprised to see that the numbers \"floated\" here for Barbaro are in the negative 1 or 2 range. For me, that was easily the most impressive Derby I have seen in my lifetime and I don\'t think my eyes deceived me. Accelerating during the last 1/4 mile, coming home in 24 1/5, beating all the horses easily, many with established levels of performance. I am sorry, but I don\'t buy that Bluegrass Cat only \"paired up\". I am somewhat partial, since I had a futures bet on BC, but I won\'t believe that his Derby was only the same as the race in Tampa. I also won\'t believe that Barbaro\'s derby was slower than Bandini\'s Bluegrass, Sinister Minister\'s Bluegrass, Sweet Northern Saint\'s Illinois Derby, and even Greeley\'s Galaxyy\'s Illinois Derby.
I make that point not to question the figures, since they aren\'t even out yet, but to lead into what to make of the Preakness. I guess you can look at it two ways. First off, you can concede that Barbaro is tons the best of this crop and will have no competition in the Preakness, as he won the Derby without seemingly being asked for his best, coming home in 24.1. However, since he will be 1-1 or so, there isn\'t a lot of value in having this opinion. Although it may be correct.
The other side to take is that a horse who has had a minimum of 5 weeks between all of his starts, having just run what I believe to be at least a 5 point top, now has to come back on 2 weeks rest and is possibly going to bounce like a rubber ball, at even money or so. Granted, watching Barbaro stride out effortlessly in the stretch of the Derby does not give one the impression that he will bounce in his next race, but we do have a pretty long history of data here at Thorograph of how 3 year olds have reacted to big figures in the past. Even Smarty Jones bounced a couple points in the Derby, I believe, although still winning easily.
Looking at the possibles for the Preakness, the races seems to set up like a jockey\'s race to me, unless you believe Barbaro is tons the best. The reason I say that is that even though you only have 6 or 7 probable starters, the four most likely winners all want to be in the same spot tactically, sitting off the shoulder of Like Now. Barbaro, Sweet Northern Saint, Brother Derek and probably Bernardini, all run their best races sitting right off the shoulder of the speed horses. Seeing which one gets the \"catbird\'s seat\", could be interesting.
I believe Brother Derek will be an overbet 2nd choice in the Preakness. His race in the Derby reminds me of Medaglia D\'Oro a few years back. He was my Derby pick and he was a speed horse but he got in trouble out of the gate and got pinched back. He closed for a non-threatening 4th, but got lots of kudos for his courageous run in the stretch and how he was the only one making up any ground on War Emblem. He went off 5-2 in the Preakness and didn\'t run a step, not being able to run back to his big Derby race off the short rest, although he did run big in the Belmont 3 weeks later. I prefer a horse who is fast, and ran more of a \"non-effort\" in the Derby. I think Sweet Northern Saint fits this profile. We all know the horse is fast and he only ran for about a mile in the Derby before packing it in. We will see how he looks next week, but at 7-1 or so, in a short field, with only one bad race in his past performances, he could be an overlay, if you think Barbaro is beatable.
I tend to believe that Barbaro moved forward 1 or 2 points from his Florida Derby effort, and maybe Bluegrass Cat paired or moved forward 1 point off his Tampa Bay Derby effort. Too many horses encountered trouble in this large field and the wall of horses on the turn made for some very wide moves. Also looking at the charts from Equibase, Bris, and DRF there appears to be some discrepancy, according to Equibase nearly 1/2 the field ran the final quarter faster than the previous quarter (the final turn).
As far as the Preakness; Bernardini, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint would have to be 12/1 or more in my mind to take a shot against Barbaro.
BD and SNS will come up for the trip/wise guys, I think 7-8 to 1 range for BD and 10-1ish for SNS. I think they both may be over the top and I\'m surprised that no one mentioned that SNS did not jog well his last two days, acccording to reports.Bernadini beat up on a Dutrow horse that layed down turning for home in a fast performance against the adjusted clock.
Anything close to his last makes Barbaro very tough to beat. SNS has that big fig to run back to but this will be a much tougher bunch than he faced in ILL.
Mike
Miff,
I guess you expect Barbaro to be 1-2 or lower, if you think 8-1 and 10-1 for BD and SNS. The field size will be 7 horses or so, not sure either BD or SNS will be that long. Unless you think Bernardini is going to be second choice in the 4-1 range?
The question is whether Barbaro can run anywhere close to his last. Of course, if he does, he wins. I guess he can bounce 2 points and win. But 3 year olds have not done well off the big jumpups the last few years. Not sure I want to take odds on that Barbaro will be the exception. Although, he certainly did look like an \"exception\" on Saturday....
Kasept,
You were following SNS very closely. What is this about the \"not jogging well\"? I never saw or heard anything about that. did you see that while you were down there?
Whoever dropped about 800k in the \"last click\" on Saturday, must not have realized it either. That drop from 7-1 to 5-1 in the last minute or so is pretty significant, with the amount of money in the pool. Kind of reminded me of a couple of others. Lion Heart went from 8-1 to 5-1 in the Derby in the last 2 minutes before post. Funny Cide went from 16-1 to 12-1 in the last few minutes. T
Barbaro will be between 4-5 and 1-1; about 9-10. Brother Derek will be about 3-1 and SNS about 4-1.
Jim,
Mike Welch at DRF wrote about it in two different columns and downgraded him. He originally liked the winner and SNS equally. He downgraded SNS on Wed and Fri of derby week.Check the drf archives under Clockers Report, it may be there.
Re Barbaro, he should be a stick, imo, but the hype and the blind following which will ensue may drive him down lower.I think the ones with a shot may give Barbaro a tougher race because the traffic should not be an issue in a small field.
Mike
Jimbo,
The \"not jogging well\" thing came first from Mike Welsh in his DRF Clockers Report and then from Tom Amoss on TVG... Ernesto Ferdinand, SNS\'s gallop man since Day 1 and a 30 year veteran, laughed when I asked him about it before going on the air last Thursday. \"The horse is smarter than the SOB\'s watching him.\" was his exact response...
He said the first day when the track was muddy and the second day when chopped up, Saint just lightly hopped the first time around unhappy with the conditions/footing. He was also under a \"6-5\" hold... Those that claim he was or is sore, based it on the fact that he walked with his head down around the shedrow. Is he supposed to canter around the barn? He is a consumate \"energy-saver\" that shuts down when not having to work and lays down and sleeps whenever he gets a chance.
Take note that no one had anything to say about his Friday gallop after the reno break, which was great with the track back to normal.. That\'s because Trombetta got pissed off and sent him out MINUS his Derby entrant saddle towel so no one knew it was him!!
the field is getting smaller by the day. just a guess:
Barbaro - even
SNS - 4/1
BD - 4/1
Bernardini - 6/1
Baffert - 12-1
Like now - 15/1
slow Zito horse - 20/1
.....
Jim,
I don\'t think SNS can be 7/1 unless either Barbaro is in the 3/5 range or Bernardini takes a ton of money.
MORE LIKE BARBARO 4-5 BRO DEREK 6-1 , BERNANDINI 6-1 NORTHERNSAINT 10-1
The early thoughts are how badly they need to change the spacing between these Triple Crown races.
Six or seven for the Preakness. Is this a joke. Even the other races get affected. How many Woodford Reserve runners will wheel back and how many CD Sprint runners give it a go.
The scheduling is old school. The Preakness should be run on Sat of Memorial Day weekend and the Belmont on July 4th.
Horses would last longer and don\'t give me this tradition and test of a champion bull---t either.
The Triple Crown has become a meat grinder that is ruining the sport as much as it is helping it.......
Barbaro ranges from -106 to -120 on various sportsbooks to win preakness right now.
Jimbo:
There's another way to analyze the Preakness and that is to conclude that Barbaro hasn't established his dominance yet. Barbaro is only "tons the best of this crop" if we focus solely on the result in the Kentucky Derby, a dangerous practice. The same Barbaro was life and death to win the Florida Derby over an undistinguished bunch. If you have any confidence in the Thorograph figs, and you assume that Barbaro ran as fast as he did in the Derby, then Brother Derek has already run 4 races in the zero range or better while Barbaro has run only one. In fact, if the trips were reversed in the Derby, Brother Derek may have won the race and instead we're now talking about how impressive a horse Brother Derek is. So, while Barbaro's performance in the Derby may be everything you say it was, there's not enough evidence yet for me to conclude he's tons the best of this generation.
And then there is the question of his short-term line coming into the Preakness. ANY new top in the Derby is probably not the ideal pattern coming into the Preakness, never mind a new top in negative territory. If you look in the Archives, there are ten Preakness contestants from 1992-2005 which had run new tops in the Derby. Of those ten, none went forward in the Preakness, 4 paired (including Giacomo last year), 3 ran off races, and the other 3 X'd out. On average, those horses bounced 3½ points in the Preakness. Also, Barbaro has developed a lot in a short period of time culminating in a negtive number -– probably in the range of at least five points -- another factor against him.
I'm not saying that Brother Derek is going to win the Preakness, but there is not nearly enough credit given to this horse for the remarkable race he ran in the Derby and the soundness of his line all spring long. If I told you the winner of the Preakness needs to run in the zero range, isn't it more probable that BD runs that race than Barbaro, looking at their sheets and considering their respective short-term and long-term development?
Matz knew he had a talented colt last fall. The horse already has the deep training base to peak at Belmont. He\'s coasting now. The Derby and Preakness are the planned works along the way to get him there. The horse galloped a half Derby morning, and still finished well in hand and hardly breathing. The horse jogged 2 miles yesterday, everyone else was jogging a mile. Barbaro\'s turned out in his paddock eating grass. The Derby took nothing out of him.
Matz figured out what he thinks it takes to get a talented colt to win the TC in this day and age, and is playing out his hand. Barring injury, I don\'t think there can possibly be a bounce - the Derby was only a planned work along the way to the finish line at Belmont for this horse.
Is Barbaro better than many in the past? History will tell. He\'s a damn good horse with a brilliant trainer.
Preakness value only in the exotics. The winner is clear.
Sight,
Why wasn\'t Matz a \"brilliant trainer\" before last Saturday?.He certainly never showed brilliance by accomplishment before.Last year, Richey was the brilliant flavor of the day. It\'s the horse, sight, 95%.I think Barbaro might be a brilliant horse with a good trainer.
Mike
I heard or read somewhere (I don\'t think it was on this board) on Friday or Saturday that SNS had lost some weight (maybe 75 pounds) since the Illinois Derby. Do you know if there\'s any truth to that? Thanks.
BitPlayer
Good point. Maybe it is more a matter of, \"Don\'t screw this up\" on the trainer\'s part.
As an aside, I felt truely sorry for Dan Henricks after the race. He looked shell-shocked. He\'s got a damn good horse, too. SNS is immensely talented, quality.
It\'s a good year.
I want to comment on the excellent level of the analysis that has been posted here, both pre and post Derby, even when I disagree with the conclusions. Caradoc and Jimbo-- you guys are stealing my thunder. We\'re probably going to do a Preakness seminar and throw it in with the sheets for free (short field, and Paul wants to play with his new toy, which enabled us to create slides this year that are not static), and we\'re going to do some studies for it along the lines Caradoc discusses, but a little different.
We\'ll be posting the Derby figures this afternoon.
Sight,
I agree,someone posted that this was a weak group, huh? Discreet Cat is still in the wings, Bernadini is bred to be any kind,Barbaro maybe a champ, SNS,BD are nice horses as well as others.They all run fast figs, so I dont get the bad crop rap.
Mike
You\'ll never see 6-1 on Brother Derek or 10-1 on Sweetnorthernsaint. Wont happen
Makes me wonder what was lost during MRLS years just past.
Re Hendricks, did anyone else see the derby draw on ESPN? If I remember correctly, the BD connections had a chance to go inside. When Hendricks was interviewed after the selection of #18, I think I remember him saying that it was the owner\'s decision to go outside. That could very well explain his looking ill after that trip.
The last four years the exacta horse in Baltimore didn\'t run in the Derby:
2005-Scrappy T
2004-Rock Hard Ten
2003-Midway Road
2002-Magic Weisner
Is Olivers Twist running?
I tend to agree with you Sighthound after seeing the Derby performance. Further, the place the horse is tunred out, Fox Hill Farms I beleive, is a horse\'s dream. Matz seems to share a lot of the same sentiments regarding how he treats his steeds as Michael Dickenson, though I think Matz is more sound upstairs.
Looking like I\'ll play a spread pick 4 Preakness Day singling Barbaro on a big ticket, using BARB, SNS and BD on a secondary Pick 4.
My exacta strategy will be large BARB over BD and SNS with a smaller 3 horse box...
Tri\'s and Super\'s are not for me
Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
> There's another way to analyze the Preakness and
> that is to conclude that Barbaro hasn't
> established his dominance yet. Barbaro is only
> "tons the best of this crop" if we focus solely on
> the result in the Kentucky Derby, a dangerous
> practice. The same Barbaro was life and death to
> win the Florida Derby over an undistinguished
> bunch. If you have any confidence in the
> Thorograph figs, and you assume that Barbaro ran
> as fast as he did in the Derby, then Brother Derek
> has already run 4 races in the zero range or
> better while Barbaro has run only one. In fact,
> if the trips were reversed in the Derby, Brother
> Derek may have won the race and instead we're now
> talking about how impressive a horse Brother Derek
> is. So, while Barbaro's performance in the Derby
> may be everything you say it was, there's not
> enough evidence yet for me to conclude he's tons
> the best of this generation.
>
> And then there is the question of his short-term
> line coming into the Preakness. ANY new top in
> the Derby is probably not the ideal pattern coming
> into the Preakness, never mind a new top in
> negative territory. If you look in the Archives,
> there are ten Preakness contestants from 1992-2005
> which had run new tops in the Derby. Of those
> ten, none went forward in the Preakness, 4 paired
> (including Giacomo last year), 3 ran off races,
> and the other 3 X'd out. On average, those horses
> bounced 3½ points in the Preakness. Also, Barbaro
> has developed a lot in a short period of time
> culminating in a negtive number -– probably in the
> range of at least five points -- another factor
> against him.
>
> I'm not saying that Brother Derek is going to win
> the Preakness, but there is not nearly enough
> credit given to this horse for the remarkable race
> he ran in the Derby and the soundness of his line
> all spring long. If I told you the winner of the
> Preakness needs to run in the zero range, isn't it
> more probable that BD runs that race than Barbaro,
> looking at their sheets and considering their
> respective short-term and long-term development?
>
>
I thoroughly and completely agree with your assessment... I\'ve had this conversation with others about the strength of a fast/consistent line versus a huge jump-up and back on two weeks rest.
There is going to be a huge difference of opinion between TG and Sheets, because they still do not have BD going through his 2 yo top.
give me 10-1 on SNS and I\'ll take it
Better get ready for 9-2. Maybe even 4-1
Trip guys getting lots of ink for BD and SNS to a lesser extent. With only four realistic betting choices it may look like:
Barbaro 4/5
Bro Derek 9/2
Bernadini 6
SNS 7
Take your pick on the rest.
Mike
I think Brother Derek gets hammered at the windows.Strong second choice and closer to Barbaro on the tote than you think IMO.
Like Now will be ignored and could be a nice board crasher.Slower,but I think his graph will look good,and the 4 weeks rest gives him an advantage over the Derby big 3.Gomez on /Jara off won\'t hurt either.Live at a price if the Derby takes a toll on a couple of the favorites.
If Barbaro is 4-5, Brother Derek will be no higher than 3-1. And no way in the world Bernardini is bet lower than SNS. I don\'t care what kind of number he ran in the match race Withers.
JJP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Barbaro is 4-5, Brother Derek will be no higher
> than 3-1. And no way in the world Bernardini is
> bet lower than SNS. I don\'t care what kind of
> number he ran in the match race Withers.
brother you don\'t know how to make an odds line if you think that, its very normal for a 3-5 or 4-5 shot race to have a 4-1 second choice or higher.
Yeah but this race won\'t....brother
I\'ve been making odds lines for over 20 years....how about you Mr. High Roller??
JJP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah but this race won\'t....brother
>
> I\'ve been making odds lines for over 20
> years....how about you Mr. High Roller??
>
>
>
>
well i guess its been 20 yrs of bad lines........
your line is absurd because in a 9-10 horse field you are assigning 80% to 2 horses. that ain\'t gonna happen, granted bro derek will attract a lot of sucker money
but sweet & bernandini will be bet as well
JJP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah but this race won\'t....brother
>
> I\'ve been making odds lines for over 20
> years....how about you Mr. High Roller??
>
>
>
>
i\'ll make you a gentleman\'s bet of $500 that brother derek goes off higher than 3-1 and i\'ll send the money to jerry today.
I would make this wager as well.
No way Brother Derek goes off at 3-1. NO. WAY.
I like SNS in the Preakness , 4-1 would be fair enough . Bernardini ( improves w/ 2 turns ) , Barbaro ( backs up aprx 2 pts ) complete the tri . Brother Derek\'s pattern looks like it has no where ( good ) to go , he\'s only improved 1 1/4 pts in 4 races since the Hol number and on 2 weeks rest can run into alot of trouble .
high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JJP Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Yeah but this race won\'t....brother
> >
> > I\'ve been making odds lines for over 20
> > years....how about you Mr. High Roller??
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> i\'ll make you a gentleman\'s bet of $500 that
> brother derek goes off higher than 3-1 and i\'ll
> send the money to jerry today.
>
>
>
Hope you didn\'t make that bet High Roller. He was 3.20 - 1.
Looks like JJP was right.