I got killed. I could have cashed a small saver exacta had BGC not run second but oh well. Looked to me like SNS was riding Desormeaux. That horse was finished on the front stretch and still ran somewhat credible considering how much energy he expended fighting his jock and bouncing off other horses. He\'s gonna be one tired animal tonight...
Derek will see better days. Hopefully SNS will too.
Barabaro was the picture of class as is Prado and Matz.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got killed. I could have cashed a small saver
> exacta had BGC not run second but oh well. Looked
> to me like SNS was riding Desormeaux. That horse
> was finished on the front stretch and still ran
> somewhat credible considering how much energy he
> expended fighting his jock and bouncing off other
> horses. He\'s gonna be one tired animal tonight...
>
> Derek will see better days. Hopefully SNS will
> too.
>
> Barabaro was the picture of class as is Prado and
> Matz.
I\'m still waiting for the Chart Uncle Buck. Unless he bounced SoS must have had trouble and I didn\'t see it. Shocker he missed the exotics. Sinister I figured was either win or bust and I did think Keyed Entry had the speed and post to make it tough on him, but he faded so badly I think it was more than P.Val having a flashback.
Sometimes the best horse in the Derby wins the Derby. Like so many other handicappers I just didn\'t think this was a superior horse. My stack of losing mutuel tickets is painful, but I\'ll sleep well knowing I never really had a chance against this animal. Pretty damn impressive.
Best of luck to Matz, Prado and company as they negotiate the forthcoming media frenzy. Hope they can keep their eyes on the prize.
hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sometimes the best horse in the Derby wins the
> Derby. Like so many other handicappers I just
> didn\'t think this was a superior horse. My stack
> of losing mutuel tickets is painful, but I\'ll
> sleep well knowing I never really had a chance
> against this animal. Pretty damn impressive.
>
> Best of luck to Matz, Prado and company as they
> negotiate the forthcoming media frenzy. Hope they
> can keep their eyes on the prize.
>
>
I\'m happy for the winners. Class connections all the way. I was way off on Barbaro\'s Florida Derby. Guess in hindsight, winning at Gulfstream from the 10 hole should not be discounted. I bad mouthed him pretty good, but in the end was impressed enough with his works to put him over and under SoS. Lot of good it did.
I thought the time of the race was legit. He ascends to the head of the class. I really thought SoS and Sinister Minister were the best horses, so off that race I can\'t come up with a horse to beat him at Pimlico. Saint had enough trouble and ran well enough before the stretch fade that he could be given a second chance. Maryland is his home base, so if he comes out well, he could be the one to stop Barbaro, if thats possible. However, he was a better horse than he showed today. Maybe the Illinois Derby was harder than we thought.
I\'m hoping Sinister is o.k. I know everyone else was leery of the keeneland jinx, but they motored very hard for six furlongs and he eventually put his head in front before that monster inhaled him. TGJB noted something about the rail. I did not see it, but maybe inside was tough on the leaders. We can study that later, too shocked right now.
I was wrong about Bluegrass Cat too. He had the pace spot I\'d anticapated for SoS, getting first run on the tiring leaders if they tired. I still don\'t like him, but kudos to those that cashed pletcher at 30-1.
I also thought Bob and John would run better and that Storm Treasure would run a bit better.
I\'m an also ran and that hurts. Pretty much devasted by the 1st and 2nd place finishers and my bets ran 16th and a cover 7th. Other than not having a clue there, my other thoughts held pretty well. No consolation in thinking I had the best horse. Its Barbaro in retrospect.
P.Val needs to explain himself
22.3
46.
Nice ride Patrick, thanks for the heady play.
gotta love this fool called CTC, must have made 100 posts the last 3 weeks giving an opinion on everything under the sun, AND COMES AWAY WITH NO MONEY!
high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> gotta love this fool called CTC, must have made
> 100 posts the last 3 weeks giving an opinion on
> everything under the sun, AND COMES AWAY WITH NO
> MONEY!
>
>
No money on the derby and a loser for the day, but it took the derby to make me a loser. Whats your story?
Somebody else thinks your a retard.Well i\'ll be damned. Shut you suck for a while will ya.
bear in mind that half-wits and better can only benefit
from contributors of ctc\'s ilk
this guy can\'t be a serious player, no serious player could possibly post hundreds of times, it looks like this guy posted with minutes of the race, he must be addicted to posting, get this he even talks to mike welsch of the drf, big name-dropper, PLEASE STOP WASTING EVERYONES TIME!
High Roller,
This guy should be playing bingo in a retirement village in Florida.
That Was Coaches orders for BGC...almost worked too.
NC Tony
There was nothing wrong with P VAL\'s ride. He had a strong hold on the horse thru the 1st turn and did not go as fast as everyone thought he would. He\'s a miler.
It should also be noted that after looking at the chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip. Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to have a \"trouble free trip\".
Hats off to Edgar and Mr Matz. Class all the way.
At least I was correct in my weather prediction.
I agree Mo, pace wasn\'t as fast as almost everyone was predicting. I guess the fact that someone actually decided to take the lead away from SM makes them a bad rider. If they had let SM go wire to wire he would be getting crucified for letting a horse steal the race.
No win situation for P.VAl, or Mark Guidry for that matter.
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There was nothing wrong with P VAL\'s ride. He had
> a strong hold on the horse thru the 1st turn and
> did not go as fast as everyone thought he would.
> He\'s a miler.
>
> It should also be noted that after looking at the
> chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip.
> Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to
> have a \"trouble free trip\".
>
> Hats off to Edgar and Mr Matz. Class all the way.
>
> At least I was correct in my weather prediction.
For the record, I don\'t think P.Vals \"flashback\" ride cost Sinister a placing spot. Sinister faded too hard to have that opinion. But what was clear is that Keyed Entry was ratable and ran his best race in the Gotham rating under an expert. Prado did it again on Barbaro. Placed him wonderfully and gave him his best chance. It just turned out that he was clearly the best horse too. P.Val didn\'t come close to that level of ability. I don\'t bet jockeys, but I never again want to hear that substance altered psychedelic mentioned among the elite.
Note where the horse finished.
Of course Keyman is a miler. The irony is I talked Pletcher into running that wretch to ensure Saint got a nice pace scenario to run at. Then I got off Saint and the wretch and his rehab rider put the spike in me!
Who did you go with MO? I have a good record in the Derby, but his is my worst year in a while. I\'m going back to your technique, general silence. I\'m gonna post my horse one minute before post time next year. I\'m starting to think my opinion is driving the price down. SnS was actually the favorite. Sinister was 9-1. I expected almost 10 more points on each.
Who was your money burner?
I bet $200 win and place and another $140 to show on Private Vow. If he wins, I make 10 grand tax free. I was concerned going in to the race that his running style might be comprimised as he is IMO a \"need the lead\" horse. Well when he didn\'t break, it was over.
I did not post earlier on this race because I think this crop sucked going in (and now you have an odds on favorite for the Preakness). The only other horse I liked was BD, but post 18 (really post 19) at 7-1 was no value.
I was there when Barbaro won the Florida Derby and he beat garbage. Not a grade 1 winner in the field. I think the race had a $40,000 claimer entered. He won from the 10 hole but I just didn\'t think it was an impressive race.
Again kudos to Edgar Prado who is without question the best active rider in America. He deserved this win.
MO,
Since the new Gulfstream Park surface(2 years ago) only 1 horse out of 30 won from post 10,guess who.Many horsemen would rather scratch than waste their horse from running out there.
I think you forgot the kudos for a horse that ran the fastest last quarter in memory and won by the largest margin in 60 years.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> Since the new Gulfstream Park surface(2 years ago)
> only 1 horse out of 30 won from post 10,guess
> who.Many horsemen would rather scratch than waste
> their horse from running out there.
>
> I think you forgot the kudos for a horse that ran
> the fastest last quarter in memory and won by the
> largest margin in 60 years.
>
> Mike
Mike,
Perhaps Barbaro won by the largest margin in 60 years because he was beating nothing? Remember, even Secretariat\'s winning margin in the Belmont was vs. 4 also rans, and none of them a world beater. That\'s not to say Barbaro won\'t be a great horse someday, but I doubt Barbaro could warm up Secretariat at this stage in their careers.
MO
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 05/07/06 09:45AM by
> miff.
It looks, both from his PP\'s and firsthand observation of many who saw his early races, that this horse isn\'t even primarily a dirt horse. He looks like he might be a turf monster and may prove to be a monster period.
His performance yesterday can\'t be denigrated.
MO,
I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the best derby in recent memory and will most likely receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he towers over these, right now.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the
> best derby in recent memory and will most likely
> receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He
> now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to
> win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he
> towers over these, right now.
>
> Mike
Mike,
Point taken, but I think this Derby is gonna get somewhere around a 0 because Prado saved ground. I agree with you in that he seems to tower over the rest, but remember virtually every horse had a bad trip (including the winner which can be a whole \'nother discussion). If you liked something going in and didn\'t get what you expected, you can draw a line thru the race and look at the Preakness as just the 11th race at Pimlico on a Saturday afternoon. A whole new ballgame.
MO
MO,
Agree, the track was fast but not wildly so. The trip guys are already all over Bro Derek for the Preakness.I wasn\'t surprised at all that the outside speed was destroyed by trips.Check out BRISNET full chart results for the derby,very revealing.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the
> best derby in recent memory and will most likely
> receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He
> now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to
> win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he
> towers over these, right now.
>
> Mike
Wait a minute. Barbaro won, but lets take some time to go over that. I\'m just not in the frame of mind to do it now.
First off, we may need to look close at the track again. I\'m too wiped out to do it now. Jerry mentioned something re: path Friday. The Derby results need scrutizned, just don\'t have the enthusiasm yet.
The two fastest horses and Steppenwolfer had a horror trip. You certainly can\'t score Barbaro off them. You want to score it from Bluegrass Cat\'s effort? I certainly don\'t. Just what do you project the mighty might Cat at?
Pletcher horses had some help yesterday.Is anyone surprised? His maiden 3 mill Forestry colt was challenged and under pressure the entire race.Gomez was all over him on the turn yet he was finding his best stride late at the end of the race?? It wasn\'t just the addition of blinkers IMO.English Channel wasn\'t that hard to come up with on trip.His winner in the 11th Yes Yes Yes ran a strong race-another that kept on going and going and going.I salvaged my day in the last two.
Keyed Entry is just distance challenged.
Bluegrass Cat I came up with as an under key-but no Barbaro on top.I couldn\'t see Prado working out that in the clear stalkers trip while chasing a hot pace and he didn\'t -the horse did.Sharp Humor couldn\'t even keep up with him on the backside which was surprising.Prado is just a passenger.Barbaro puts himself right where he needs to be in a race-he\'s just pulling Prado around-kind of like Elliot on Smarty Jones.
Brother Derek is gonna take money in the Preakness off his rough trip wide-wide,and Solis/Hendricks are saying they\'re gonna win it in Baltimore.He\'s the obvious option,but I think that effort could set him back.He\'s not beating Barbaro and he doesn\'t have to be in the exacta or tri.Waiting to see who shows up,but I\'m leaning towards using a fresh horse or horses underneath Barbaro.If I\'m Pletcher I take my shot against Barbaro in the Belmont with Sunriver.That is too much horse to deal with right now.Have to hope the tank gets emptied a little in two weeks.
Chuck,
It seems that BC, with that weight, ran back to his 1 and Barbaro ran neg -2 or neg -3.He obviously moved forward. The card featured lots of fast horses that ran fast, whats the problem.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> It seems that BC, with that weight, ran back to
> his 1 and Barbaro ran neg -2 or neg -3.He
> obviously moved forward. The card featured lots of
> fast horses that ran fast, whats the problem.
>
> Mike
I seriously doubt Bluegrass Cat picked up weight, went further ground and ran back to his top. I think the key to the figure is Steppenwolfer, Did he run his 2 or thereabouts with all the trouble he had, but thats grist for the next one.
The Derby Raw Time was not a standout on the day. It was a decent raw time and the figure will be fast and fast for 10 marks, but certainly not in the elite range.
Thats from a guy that finished 16th and 7th though, at lower odds than he should have accepted.
Accolades to Bobphilo who was run off the site. I believe he was saying Barbaro was the real McCoy from the outset. Now theres plenty that will be willing to jump on his bandwagon after the Kentucky Derby. Bob, come back and talk to us about the Preakness. Is Barbaro a mortal lock?
CtC
Chuck,
You must be beat up.He carried 4 more pounds than when he ran his 1. As far as the elite range, he will probably get the fastest TG derby figs ever.
Mike
I\'m afraid the Derby as it stands now with 20 horses banging into one another has basically turned into a Lottery. I would say going in yesterday that 50% of the entries had a fair shot to win.
From now one I will bet futures on 4 or 5, and play pick 4\'s, pick 3\'s and doubles.
The current format for exotics is too expensive and too risky to really feel good about hitting. Especially the tri and super.
For those who can afford to wheel, it\'s a better exotic angle but still very risky...
Looking forward to a cleaner, saner Preakness.
Forego actually is one of the all-time greats.
I dont understand all the hype trying to give Barbaro a Negative 2 Derby or better. Did you see how fast Joint Effort ran? What about Pussycat Doll or Tricky Trevor. 2:01 and change is fast, but on that track it wasn\'t special. What was noteworthy was being fairly close to the fractions and finishing as he did. However, methinks once again there was a little bit more to the story.
Remember Giacomo and the 2nd place horse last year? How many races did they win subsequently? This is a better horse, but some things went his way too.
I just dont\' see it. But it doesn\'t really matter give him a Negative 6 for all I care, the issue will be is it legit and if so is that effort what caused him to go off in the Preakness?
I just don\'t see it, but I didn\'t see Bluegrass Cat with a snowballs chance either.
i\'m no expert, but 2:01 and a length looks pretty damn fast to me. FC and WE did about the same, and Monarchos did better, but those tracks were extremely quick. i though the surface was neutral yesterday. that was the most impressive derby performance i have seen in many years.
Michael-- it looks fast, all right. And given the beaten lengths, you get into the question of how many really bad numbers you give out. I\'m guessing nobody else ran a new top, next 3 around their tops, maybe BD gets a buried figure around his, rest get bad numbers-- 15 of \'em.
I also think he\'ll be odds-on. I also think Bernadini will be shorter.
CTC-- it killed me to delete a post knocking Raggies. But you gotta cool it.
Chuck,
For a change I agree,Barbaro had some things go his way. He\'s cat quick from the gate and settles without pulling which is why things went his way. Check the replay of his dirt starts and I think you will see an exceptional athlete.How much he is spent by the effort remains to be seen.
There may be one minor negative,when I saw him work in florida, in Feb, he did not carry too much flesh. Is that why Matz spaces him so long in between starts? If so, two weeks may not be enough recoup time off that effort. We\'ll see.
Mike
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>I\'m starting to think my opinion
> is driving the price down. SnS was actually the
> favorite. Sinister was 9-1. I expected almost 10
> more points on each.
>
Sure Clown, the entire world breathlessly waited for your selections and then pounded them down to favortism.
My Derby selections bombed, save for the nice Oaks/Derby Double score. But there were plenty of nice plays TG users should have had on the rest of the card.
3- Nolan\'s Cat paid a very fair 8.20
4- Rush Bay had a solid pattern and though paid only 2-1 was a solid key
5- With Distinction ran back to his nice sprint figs at 9-1, while Tricky Trevor cost me the P3. Congrats to Baze and Hollendorfer.
6- Joint Effort paid a nice $16 with the fastest fig in the race.
7- Mirabilis, 9- English Channel, 11- Yes Yes Yes (a fat 7-1) were all extremely playable.
Great job TG, other than the Derby it was a very good day.
Even though he didn\'t show any signs if fatigue at all , you know he\'s got to be feeling yesterday and dealing w/ a degree of extreme dehydration for a long while to come . The live race broadcast (+ replays) and still photography show no hint of any prblems to watchout for next time . The horses lines , front & back , where all excellent while striding and did not appear to overstretch or overextened any joints or grab anything ( any vetrenarians out there ? ) but 2 weeks rest is insufficiant and not comencerate with that huge effort . My feeling is that Barbaro will not repeat that effort in the Preakness ...
From a betting perspective:
I give Barbaro a 70% chance of being the fastest in the Preakness (coming off the huge new top he could react), and a 70% chance of getting the trip needed in the big field. You need both of these to win. Anything below even money is too low, and you have to try and beat him.
From a horse racing fan perspective:
I will be rooting for Barbaro. I was sure he would be a great turf horse, but was not so sure he would be a Ky Derby winning dirt horse. I simply underestimated this guy. Let\'s face it - racing needs a star. I did not even make the trip out to Elmont when Funny Cide, War Emblem, or Smarty were gunning for the crown. I did not think any of the three were worthy of standing next to Secretariat, Slew, or Affirmed. If Barbaro dominates the Preakness, I will get on the LIRR, and I will buy a $2 ticket to win on Barbaro.
I want this guy to be great.
MO
Please read the race chart. the Horse you were looking at was his stablemate Showing up number 6 who saved ground. Prado was 5-6 wide on first turn in the DRF charts. And stayed wide.
I can\'t stand it when people talk without really knowing the facts.
NC Tony
The Best Value for your money is the huge exacta payouts.
NC Tony
Chuckles
I believe, Keyed Entry had a mission. To try to set it up for BGC.
BGC didn\'t like Keeneland surface. If you \"throw out one race\" BCG line is not all that bad. Besides that you had to be nuts to not notice that Pletcher won 7 races from 15 starters, 3 seconds and two thirds to boot Fri-Sat.
Hey for all of you Derbyphiles it now 5 out of th last 6 years that a Kee runner finished second at a huge price except Lion Heart (BGC 30-1, Closing Argument 71-1,Lion Heart 3.4-1, Proud citizen 23-1, Invisible Ink 55-1). Why do you think that is?
NC Tony
MO
Please read the race chart. the Horse you were looking at was his stablemate Showing up number 6 who saved ground. Prado was 5-6 wide on first turn in the DRF charts. And stayed wide.
I can\'t stand it when people don\'t talk without really knowing the facts.
NC Tony
Really? You do this for a living? How much you want to bet Prado was 3w on 1st turn and 3-2w on 2nd turn?
MO
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- it looks fast, all right. And given the
> beaten lengths, you get into the question of how
> many really bad numbers you give out. I\'m guessing
> nobody else ran a new top, next 3 around their
> tops, maybe BD gets a buried figure around his,
> rest get bad numbers-- 15 of \'em.
>
> I also think he\'ll be odds-on. I also think
> Bernadini will be shorter.
>
> CTC-- it killed me to delete a post knocking
> Raggies. But you gotta cool it.
It wasn\'t the mere fact the Arazi moniker is a Raggie.
The Arazi faker has been crude and those that lost on the Derby don\'t have tolerance right now for foul mannered red boarding raggies.
Between the aggravation of that ilk, a capricious two turn surface and drug addicted riders, now is not the time to respond to those folks with courtesy.
Let them win imaginary Derbies.
Marcus,
It can take up to 72 hours after a race for something to show up with a horse.With all the attention on Barbaro, I\'m sure DRF and Bloodhorse guys will be all over the story of how he came out.
Mike
MO and NC Tony,
No dog in this fight, but the chart caller says:
\"Barbaro.......raced under light restraint while between horses early,continued five or six wide around the first turn and into the backstretch...\"
In looking at the tape it doesn\'t look like 5 or 6 path but very tough to see clearly.
Jerry,
What path(s) did your guys come up with around the first turn.thanks
Mike
I have been reading a lot of the postrace discussion regarding Barbaro, and have noticed only 1 reference of his final quarter of just over 24 seconds.
To me, no matter what his final TG rating, a horse that can put in this fast a final quarter in a fairly fast race, tells me the horse is in super condition and certainly able to come back in 2 weeks in the Preakness.
Another post-mortem...
We (few friends pooled together $625 and played tris and supers) threw out BGC\'s Kee race and had him in all underneath slots under SNS, APW, and the winner...alas, Steppenwolfer blew up all our tix. I thought he was ridiculously underlaid. Every know-nothing-about-racing/Derby\'s-my-one-bet-of-the-year person I talked to last week said the same thing, oh, that Steppenwolfer closed at a mile and an eighth he\'s gonna love the extra distance...to me he was the classic sucker, MOTO, Joe Public horse, on offer at about one third of what his true odds were. Thought he\'d be nowhere. As always in this race, you can be close to completely right, to the big score, only to blow it with one mistake.
On a karmic note...my seven year old son is a huge Edgar Prado fan, and he wants to be a jockey when he grow up...with a 6\'4\" father and a 5\'10\" mother, his prospects are dim, he\'s already as tall as some of these guys. Anyway, my son hangs around outside the jockey\'s room at Saratoga getting autographs and generally trying to converse with these guys, and the one guy who ever pays any attention to him is Prado. We got Prado to send an autographed picture for my son\'s birthday and he was more into that than any of the other presents. All last week he kept talking about Prado winning the Derby. When he did it, my son acted like HE hit the super. And then I had to listen to my wife tell me over and over how between our son\'s love of Prado, the plane crash survivors in the stands, etc., etc., that Barbaro was, as she put it, \"the karma play of the century.\" I guess we could have put $400 of our pool money to win, but that\'s not how we roll...one of these years we\'re gonna get one of these things, I swear...
Hansel, version 2006...Sweetnorthernsaint? Just an idea.
Was BD\'s trip THAT bad??? I know it wasn\'t ideal, but am I supposed to give him extra points because for once he didn\'t get his Charmin-soft lone-f six horse field trip? I thought the best horses were the ones who could win under adverse circumstances, but that\'s just me.
Red-board of the weekend...English Channel at 7/2, what\'s wrong with that, I oughtta have my head examined, played $60 of gimmicks with my own money, Milk It Mick blew me up in that one, but geez, 30 times $9, that\'s what we call bread-n-butta. Sometimes it\'s hard for me to employ normal, basic wagering strategy on days like this...especially in a house full of people, while drinking heavily...
The horses I was most off on...Sharp Humor, thought he\'d run well, and given he ran Barbaro to half a length and was four times the price, thought he was big value. Has he finished the race yet? AP Warrior as one of my three key-on-tops? Ouch. That\'s just embarassing...
Been watching the Derby for 20 years now, and I thought Barbaro was the most impressive winner I\'ve seen in those two decades. I thought the field was decent and well-matched and he won under a hand ride while finishing up in around :24. Hope he\'s The One, think it would be good for the game...
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> It should also be noted that after looking at the
> chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip.
> Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to
> have a \"trouble free trip\".
Calling charts (especially for this race) has to be more difficult than it would seem, but if the chart is reporting trouble in this race, it\'s not even close.
Barbaro had a great trip, in the 2-path thru the 1st turn, and in the clear 3w thru the 2nd turn; Prado had a ton of horse turning into the stretch.
BG Cat also had a nice trip, saving ground up close with nobody near him early, and just following the winner for the last 3/8ths or so. Dominguez deserves a lot of credit for this ride.
It couldn\'t have worked out any better for the 2 closers Steppenwolfer & Jazil. Neither one of them had any traffic to cry about, and Jazil never had to leave the rail the entire trip. They both plodded home.
The most clear trouble seemed to hit Sweetnorthernsaint (away prob\'ly 14th or 15th after getting bumped, and putting in a run up the backstretch, but he was empty with a 1/4 mile still to run) & Bro Derek, who was very wide thruout.
Miff-- the guys who had him 2w (one of whom does ground for us) are right. The chart calls are notorious for referring to straightaways or coming in or out of turns.
STB--
I agree. Edgar Prado is one of the classiest athletes in all of sports. Good for him that he has such a talented horse.
I thought BD had a tough trip, but no excuse for that effort. Perhaps Hendricks dulled his speed with the slow works. Why take away a horse\'s best asset? If you don\'t like the distance, pace scenario, post,etc, then don\'t run. IMO, BD is a Preakness throw out.
Most impressive Derby winner I ever saw was Spend A Buck, but that was in \'85. BARBARO most impressive winner in 20 years? ...probably. It\'s tough to argue against.
As for the Preakness. BARBARO was a popular winner and may end up going off at 3-5 if field is less than 10. As for SNS....if you watch the replay, 3 horses that ran on the rail stopped abruptly. KEYED ENTRY (who looked as if he got shot), POINT DETERMINED and SNS. Watch the replay, there\'s no one on the inside in the stretch except SNS. x ...that\'s how JAZIL got through to get up for 4th.
That Derby middle move, at one time, translated into a nice angle play at Pimlico. Some of those who nicely complied.... PINE BLUFF, HANSEL (as you mentioned), SUMMER SQUALL, TABASCO CAT, TIMBER COUNTRY.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
TGJB-
You think Bernardini will be a shorter price than Barbaro?
Chuckles-
I said it in my post to you about SM after the Bluegrass- you throw out the BG...for everybody, and suddenly you have a pattern on BC that looks very viable.
No. He\'ll be shorter than the 15-1 Michael had him in his line. I\'m thinking 4/5, 6-1.
By the way, Jimbo owes me a beer. I wouldn\'t bring it up, but it\'s the only bet I cashed all weekend.
Jerry,
I was hoping you forgot about the beer. I am not sure I can afford it, as I also didn\'t cash a bet on Derby day. A plethora of bad picks and bad rides. It is always pleasant to see your turf horse, with tactial speed, dropping back to last in a slow paced race, ala Perfect Drift, and a couple others.
I took solace in seeing that of my full card of CD losers on Derby Day, the author of the analysis had about 6 of the same losers I did...... I guess that author might have been you?
Yeah, that would be me. The only reason that I\'m not consumed by guilt is that I undoubtedly sent more penance through the windows than anyone that followed them. Big ouch.
Jim,
Didn\'t cash a bet? Didn\'t somebody give you the cold exacta in the 2nd, 18/1 over 13/1?
Also thought you liked Joint Effort? $15.80 there.
Jerry,
I had Bernardini at 7/1.
Yeah, well, 6-1 is shorter than 7-1.
Michael,
Yep, you did give me the 18-1 over the 13-1 in the 2nd race, ice cold.
It was actually worse than that. I was at the meadowlands, with friends, plus my old man and my son. My father came up with the 18-1, using the DRF track variants, and my son read the thorograph sheets and independently came up with the 4, as well. Me, being so much smarter, explained to both of them why the 4 was too slow to win, despite being the only closer in a race full of speed......
I boxed joint effort with a couple others, throwing Adieu out.
I suck.
Speaking of the second race. Talk about an irregular payout. I had a 40$exacta with this combo and it paid $200 It should have easily paid 450-600 on derby day. I started the day getting hosed and it only got worse from there.
Jim,
I tossed Adieu as well.
That was an Allday special. Those two fillies going 1:28 flat ????
pony,
that sometimes happens when you get a race with a lot of speed and two decent closers. the sum becomes less than the parts. all of us who played it to collapse had that exacta.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> For a change I agree,Barbaro had some things go
> his way. He\'s cat quick from the gate and settles
> without pulling which is why things went his way.
> Check the replay of his dirt starts and I think
> you will see an exceptional athlete.How much he is
> spent by the effort remains to be seen.
>
>
> There may be one minor negative,when I saw him
> work in florida, in Feb, he did not carry too much
> flesh. Is that why Matz spaces him so long in
> between starts? If so, two weeks may not be enough
> recoup time off that effort. We\'ll see.
>
>
> Mike
>
Miff, he\'s undoubtedly a good horse. It wasn\'t the same as with the Giacomo clunk up. If its better than a Negative 1, which is a great Derby figure, so be it. Maybe that and the light race schedule would make him vulnerable to a bounce next. But I\'m sure that light race schedule was designed to try and get him through the whole Triple Crown. I guess we\'ll see. Betting with conviction against Giacomo after his Derby win was easy. This Barbaro is a better horse than that and betting against him may be risky unless they say he ran so fast he\'s a bounce possibility. I don\'t know what to make of a super fast Derby fig. I don\'t see it in the charts and I\'m still reviewing the paths. However, I wasn\'t correct about much in that Derby. Other than not being as big a fan of the California horses as some.
If he is going to be a Triple Crown winner, it couldn\'t happen to a more deserving bunch of guys, including the owners, who are selecting true horsemen to train for them. Mike Matz is a bona fide hero. Everyone knows the story.
Obviously Barbaro has the inside track on 3YO champion. At this point, I think theres 3 horses that could derail that and 2 of them I bet Saturday. We\'ll see about Bernardini. Don\'t even know how to spell that ones name yet.
Thats a good point miff , if the horse sneanzes we\'ll know about it + his streanth and stamina at the end could be in part attributed to his turf breeding .
3 races in 7 weeks shouldn\'t necesarily be a problem but that last one was a major effort and racing again on 2 weeks rest Barabaro might exhibit the type of problems which only manifest themselves during the running of a race - even if he checks out ok .
My weekend was an O for 10 , though I did managed to stumble into my only winner on sat in the 11th , it was to little too late . I can\'t begin to guess who\'s in - who\'s out of the Preakness , but Barbaro\'s got to be the fastest going , if he\'s a good price , could be a play ...
Markus,
Barbaro will be odds on, maybe a stick. The balance of the Triple Crown is his to lose.Early reports say he came out great and could run tomorrow, but thats \"trainer speak\" which should be ignored.
Bernadini(big time wise guy horse in NY) and Bro Derek seem to be his main obstacles in the Preakness. History tells to be wary of runners coming off one explosive performance.He looked and ran like a champion on derby day but has more to prove.Mucho accolades for Barbaro coming from all top horesmen and we all saw it too.Comparisons to Secretariat ridiculous at this point.
Don\'t know that I want to pick a fight with Barbaro right now.He did all sorts of things,derby speed figs, last quarter, etc that have not been done for a very long time.Not a great betting opportunity.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Markus,
>
>
> Barbaro will be odds on, maybe a stick. The
> balance of the Triple Crown is his to lose.Early
> reports say he came out great and could run
> tomorrow, but thats \"trainer speak\" which should
> be ignored.
>
> Bernadini(big time wise guy horse in NY) and Bro
> Derek seem to be his main obstacles in the
> Preakness. History tells to be wary of runners
> coming off one explosive performance.He looked and
> ran like a champion on derby day but has more to
> prove.Mucho accolades for Barbaro coming from all
> top horesmen and we all saw it too.Comparisons to
> Secretariat ridiculous at this point.
>
> Don\'t know that I want to pick a fight with
> Barbaro right now.He did all sorts of things,derby
> speed figs, last quarter, etc that have not been
> done for a very long time.Not a great betting
> opportunity.
>
> Mike
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 05/09/06 10:08AM by
> miff.
If I\'m not mistaken, Fu-Peg won the Derby under a hand ride, got a good fig and was also \"the next Secreteriat\". I beleive he went off at 3-5 at Pimlico for the 2000 Preakness and was beaten by the Stronach colt Red Bullet (I think that was his name).
The Preakness Pace looks fairly predictable. Bro Derek, SnS and Bernadini all right there setting modest fractions, Barabaro stalking again, then pouncing on the far turn. Hopefully the pace works more in favor of Derek and Saint this time and they show up for the challenge.
As for SnS - Is he a great horse like Point Given that didn\'t fire his shot Derby Day but will go on to dominate the Preakness and Belmont? I sure hope so because I plan on unloading on him again in two weeks. I still have faith he\'s way better than he was in Kentucky and also have faith he will get his customary trip at Pimlico.