Does anyone have any insight whether A. P. Warrior will go forward or backward on Saturday? Jerry\'s analysis is that he has a good chance to return to his top, but inasmuch as this horse has never paired (0 for 8 in fact), that is not probable. So what is more likely, that he regresses further off the 2 1/4, or goes negative?
Peter
Yes - Jerry\'s take on AP is right , nobody reads numbers , handicapps and puts together wagering strategy\'s better . And again , Thanks Jerry and TG staff for another great job at putting up all the nice Derby seminar package meterial , analysis - contenders , probables etc !
I\'ve taken a marginal of AP and have the horse running in the 9th or 10th spot .
I buy both T-G\'s and Rag\'s (hope that doesn\'t get me in trouble here!) and on Rags he basically just paired up, his last two, which coincidentally have him back at his 2 year old top. I would take that as a very good sign, especially since Nakatani said he didn\'t like the track in the SA Derby. He\'s trained very well since - I\'m still waiting on my clocker\'s report on him, but the works look very good on paper, and Hollywood is a nice deep surface that should have him in fine shape. He should definitely move forward in the Derby, the only question is if that move will be enough? His breeding for the mile and a quarter is tremendous. Perhaps only Point Determined has better stamina influences -- well, Barbaro, too, though I don\'t see him as a contender.
Dana: Thanks for you read. I tend to agree with you about the likelihood of a forward move in the Derby, but I\'m not as confident. He does have some room to develop further, and the small bounce (using TG figures) in the S.A. Derby could actually be interpreted as a sign of strength; other big efforts had knocked him out in the past but this time he only went back a little three weeks later.
Peter