Capping the Derby is always a daunting task and before the draw impossible.
Adding drama to the draw, its clear the Jackson\'s (Barbaro, Showing Up) do not want Sunriver in the race. He ran big in the Fla derby and is traing super. Barclay being a good soldier, enters, ships, then the puncture reappears and he scratches.
But, Pletcher has a trump card. First he ties up Dominguez on Bluegrass Cat, then Winstar acquires a portion of Sharp Humor. BC works awful and Pletcher refuses to speculate on who will ride Sunriver should he get in.
Would not be surprised to see BC drop out and Sunriver run big at long odds. bbb
I\'d imagine the Jackson\'s would prefer having Showing Up in the race if healthy as opposed to sitting out. It\'s the Derby.
I wouldn\'t be surprised if BC runs back to his top or better (maybe a little \"hind work\" from Blanco Benz this week?) at a very sneaky 20-1 for a huge score for Pletch and/or his masters. Just speculation of course, but if a conspiracy does indeed exist, this would be one of the desired prizes and this is the way it would go down... fast horse, bad prep, slow works, and little attention... not to mention the huge betting pools gotta be tempting.
Bluegrass Cat is by Storm Cat, a Derby win would be worth $20 million to WinStar. Believe me, a betting coup is the last thing on their minds.
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> I\'d imagine the Jackson\'s would prefer having
> Showing Up in the race if healthy as opposed to
> sitting out. It\'s the Derby.
>
> I wouldn\'t be surprised if BC runs back to his top
> or better (maybe a little \"hind work\" from Blanco
> Benz this week?) at a very sneaky 20-1 for a huge
> score for Pletch and/or his masters. Just
> speculation of course, but if a conspiracy does
> indeed exist, this would be one of the desired
> prizes and this is the way it would go down...
> fast horse, bad prep, slow works, and little
> attention... not to mention the huge betting pools
> gotta be tempting.
I remember a trend posted by Tgraph a year or two about Pletcher horses reaching peak form quickly and then generally holding it provided there wasn\'t a knock out top. Bluegrass Cat\'s problem is that in all likelihood pairing his previous top won\'t get him on the board and thats not even considering the likelihood of him pairing that top at 10 furlongs.
Tagg\'s comments don\'t sound like those of a man who is planning on entering, then scratching:
\"It was a little slower than I wanted him to go, but we just wanted him to stretch his legs,\" Tagg said. \"Everything is on go, as long as everything goes well. I\'d like to see how he comes out of the workout tomorrow and gallop him on Wednesday before we enter him.\"
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33332
I\'d argue that Showing Up is a more likely winner than either of the two that Pletcher has in the top 20.
Agree Bit. B Cat & Keyed Entry have zero chance ( or substantially less than Giacomo had last year) but Sunriver would at least be competitive and with all the counterfeit pedigrees and plethora of speed types, he would be Pletchers best chance. I think running Showing Up would be borderline criminal as his debut was a mere twelve weeks ago. bbb
I entertain the possibility Pletcher may answer to a third party whos instructions are not in conflict with Winstar\'s objectives.
In the spirit of these derby-related posts where we\'re primarily dealing with IFs, I contend that if Pletcher (or those using him) has the ability to move a horse up on demand (similar to Bandini\'s BG last year), and with 5 to 10 million in the win pool that can be taken as cash relatively undetected with some organization, and with an unexpected derby result the norm... why wouldn\'t it be attempted? Everyone involved wins, the losing betters are supposed to be \"losers\", the losing owners are looking to give their 2 yr olds to brilliant horseman Pletcher, and the Church celebrates a record handle...
crimes are commited every day by people in positions to commit them, and these are not a bunch of coked-out morons from Drexell.
Cheers
bbb -
Showing Up may not have much experience, but he\'s learned his lessons well. In the Lexington, he got squeezed back early from an inside post, settled, took dirt in the face while moving to the leaders inside horses, and then responded when he had room at the top of stretch. Query whether he\'s fast enough or wants the distance, but he has demonstrated skills that are going to be at a premium on Saturday. Most of the \"seasoned\" horses have yet to demonstrate those skills.
I agree with you that Sunriver would make an interesting addition to the field, but there are a lot of other horses who should come out before Showing Up.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> bbb -
>
> Showing Up may not have much experience, but he\'s
> learned his lessons well. In the Lexington, he
> got squeezed back early from an inside post,
> settled, took dirt in the face while moving to the
> leaders inside horses, and then responded when he
> had room at the top of stretch. Query whether
> he\'s fast enough or wants the distance, but he has
> demonstrated skills that are going to be at a
> premium on Saturday. Most of the \"seasoned\"
> horses have yet to demonstrate those skills.
>
> I agree with you that Sunriver would make an
> interesting addition to the field, but there are a
> lot of other horses who should come out before
> Showing Up.
Agree Showing Up\'s positioning in the Lexington looked intriguing. Theres the Tagg factor as well. He\'s a serious horseman. I don\'t think he\'d be here if he felt his horse was over his head. Lexington day needs some study if they go. Until they say they\'re going I\'m not gonna take the time to review him.
Also agree Sunriver is the Stables best chance. If he gets in I\'ll not neglect him.
CD racing office let us know during tonight\'s \'Talking Horses\' that they now expect Tagg to demure with Showing Up. Expect Sunriver to be in the gate Saturday...
I love a good conspiracy theory,kind of makes me feel even for the day.
But even I can\'t fathom anything as far fetched as what flushed has said.
And just to back me up ;heir chuckles has warmed up to the speculation.
The horse than ran 3rd in the derby trail, what\'s he doing?? Because Flashy Bull gets in first ( he\'s 21st on the list )
Kev:
Mister Triester apparently is not running Saturday. He is not listed on DRF\'s list of top twenty by graded earnings. Flashy Bull is currently in at #20. If Showing Up is not entered, Sunriver moves from 21 to 20.
Owner of Barbaro and Showing Up apparently does not want to ruin his Karma by entering Showing Up and then scratching, thereby excluding a contender and reducing the size of the field.
Now that Flashy Bull is in, K Mac will not have to make good on his threat to have the Sheiks enter Discreet Cat and to enter Like Now and then scratch both. I think he\'s just making light of a bad set of rules with a lot of potential for abuse
Probably a mute point but even if Showing Up does...literally, can you really take him seriously for the Derby? Three lifetime starts and only one two turn race, with that one being a perfect rail trip in the Lexington.
I\'m shocked that Barclay (I\'d always rather scratch than run) Tagg even considered it.
Miff -
Beyer agrees with you:
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=74107&subs=0&arc=0
Bit,
Good trainer, needs to develop a sense of humor.
Mike
Tagg is still giving Bloodhorse a different story:
SHOWING UP - Trainer Barclay Tagg was still expecting Showing Up to be able to show up for the Kentucky Derby Tuesday morning, while reporting that the undefeated colt came out of Monday\'s four-furlong breeze of :49 3/5 at Belmont Park in fine order.
\"He\'s doing well; as long as it stays that way, he\'s all set,\" said Tagg, who has been closely monitoring a puncture wound that Showing Up suffered in his right front leg during his gutsy Lexington Stakes (gr. II) victory at Keeneland on April 22. \"He\'s ready, as long as the wound doesn\'t flare up. We have to stop treating him with antibiotics, because, of course, he can\'t race with them.\"
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33352