SNS will probably be the second favorite at the Derby. Every handicapper has him as his \"intriguing horse\". ESPN, TVG, thorograph, not sure about DRF handicappers just yet.
The truth about SNS is that he is a gelding and he has not shown the ability to rate off of a fast blistering pace and win.
Don\'t get me wrong, I see good things about this horse on the sheets, but there is a chink in his armor and he is beatable, especially if he draws poorly.
I think it makes more sense to concentrate on the longshots that are very likely to run in the money.
Look at the superfecta payout in 2004, Smarty, Lion tamer (the top two favorites, with a 10-1 IMPERIAlism and a 40-1 (Pletcher\'s Limehouse). Payout for $1 is 41,000, the tri only paid $900 and change.
There is value in the longshots.
He certainly did not gun for the lead in the Gotham or Illinois Derby. I thought he sat off the pace just fine. Sometimes horses get to the lead in the early parts of the race simply because they are much the best. That may be the case with SNS. That\'s what I\'m hanging my hat on at least.
I disagree.
He rated in the gotham ran close to 12 second furlongs. Last race splits
23.72 48.26 113.2 137.74 149.82 Final 3/8 36.62!
SNS has never been in a race where he wasn\'t on the lead or outside in the clear stalking.
He\'s not going to be on the lead Saturday and if other stalker types draw outside of him-he faces a trip he\'s never been exposed to before: In traffic behind horses eating dirt.
Scottv
I don\'t think SNS will be second choice. The uninformed public is going to bet Barbaro down for the simple fact that he\'s undefeated and Layer Ron is undefeated as a 3-year old. The public is also going to get caught up in those public interest stories: Matz (Hero), Hendricks (Tragic accident) and Holthus (Good old boy). SNS should be 8-1 or more as fourth choice.
The public will bet the Beyers, not the public interest stories. SNS will be bet down.
Agreed that Lawyer and Barbaro (and don\'t forget Bro Derek) will all take more tote money. In a 20 horse field SNS could conceivably be a 6/1 fourth favored.
Dont forget another human interest story which will be played up-- Beverly Lewis. This sets up the possibility of an emotional moment even exceeding \"You\'ve won the Derby, Mrs Genter\"
It puts a lot of pressure on you when the subject you are posting under has the word \"truth\" in it.
Richiebee,
I see a substantial bail out on Bro Derek at several venues.In the end, the national hard core of handicappers will make the odds over the human interest people.I\'m getting the vibe that 4-1 or 9/2 may be the odds on the favorite.
From everything I have read or heard leading up to the Derby, I would safely bet that BROTHER DEREK will not be the post time favorite.
I can picture him being 8-1 after Friday\'s wagering meaning there will be significant value with him in the Oaks/Derby double.
My bet is that SNS is the favorite on Saturday morning. It\'s a toss up between SNS & BARBARO after that.
Word of caution to all of you that are leaning towards POINT DETERMINED....Frankie Lyons loves him.......yikes!!!!
Second word of caution to fans of CAUSE TO BELIEVE....touted by Brent Musberger during Clippers-Nuggets telecast on Saturday night.....a double yikes!!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Richiebee,
Very interesting angle to play. The \"grieving widow\" angle. I have got to keep that in mind this coming Saturday. Right now I\'m playing all 3 Bafferts in all 4 slots. I am trying to find the rest of the dance partners. Being a former Jesuit student, I might have to play the \"Holy-Saint\", \"Sinister Minister\" and the \"Brother- Derek\" angle. And since I like jazz music, I might include \"Jazil\" as well. To hell with Figs.-
NC Tony
NCT:
Don\'t know that its a handicapping angle, but bet on TV giving us a large helping of schmaltz, as usual.
Any real Jesuit handicapper would have been all over Prince of Peace, the $31 winner of yesterday\'s ninth at Aq.
I think if like Barbaro you will get a good price out of him ( better than his ML odds ), Mike maybe makes him 7-1ml and goes off at around 10-1.
big18741 Wrote:
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> SNS has never been in a race where he wasn\'t on
> the lead or outside in the clear stalking.
>
> He\'s not going to be on the lead Saturday and if
> other stalker types draw outside of him-he faces a
> trip he\'s never been exposed to before: In traffic
> behind horses eating dirt.
I tend to agree with Holybull and think that one is wishing for a negative pace scenario with this one. They said Bellamy Road had a high cruising speed. Maybe he did. The difference was Bellamy needed to be aggressive on the lead with his speed. This horse just has a ton of free flowing, easy moving, natural speed with a killer finish. I expect to see him pace similar to the Gotham. If he runs the same race as in the Gotham he may lose. For whatever reason I don\'t think he put forth his best effort in the Gotham. But seriously, where the connections looking for it there?
kev Wrote:
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> I think if like Barbaro you will get a good price
> out of him ( better than his ML odds ), Mike maybe
> makes him 7-1ml and goes off at around 10-1.
Barbaro, Lawyer Ron and Sharp Humor all put in very quick works Saturday. Barbaro has shown the most tolerance for a horse in front of him, but he worked Saturday like that will be intolerable. Though Saturday, they\'ll have a gate and a turn to deal with and those works will winnow down in speed some.
To me, one of the most intriguing pace scenarios will be how the three mentioned about run the first half mile.
Dontchaloveit
Sharp H 2nd, L.RON 6th or 7th, BAR. 5th. all for the half mile.
kev Wrote:
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> Sharp H 2nd, L.RON 6th or 7th, BAR. 5th. all for
> the half mile.
Maybe, I\'m thinking
Sinister Minister
Sharp Humor with Lawyer Ron at his throatlatch.
Brother Derek desperate to stay close with Keyed Entry right with him
Barbaro wondering what hit him
Sweetnorthernsaint loping along, blowing the crowd kisses
Bob and John staying in touch with the Saint.
Beyond that I\'m not sure. This is pre post draw of course.
The \"TRUTH\" about SNS is this:
Nice horse
Nice pattern
Nice horse to get me out of credit card debt...
Especially nice at 30-1
Buck,
You think he will be 30-1? or did you have a few too many tonight, buddy.
Mike
Maybe he got on the bandwagon early on a future bet?
So Cal,
You must be correct, or I am correct that ol\' buck was hitting the sauce.thanks
Mike
P.S. I see pool 2 had him 30-1.
Give Uncle some props-- he posted about SNS the day he broke his maiden on the inner tube.
That being said, it is of course possible that he is on the sauce.
Offshore: Lawyer Rank now 3.5/1, Bro Drek 4/1, Barbaro and SNS 6/1, Point D 11/1, B and J 13/1, Jazil 28/1, Sunriver 36/1
Richiebee,
Good point on Bucks early call.Is there some occult sexual thing about B and J that I am missing?
Mike
Miff,
I think Buck mentioned previously that he got him in the futures.
P-Dub,
Yeah, I wasn\'t thinking that way, thought he was hitting the sauce.
Mike
Miff,
Not sure what you have against B&J. He has the 2 year old foundation of a Derby winner, running a 5 last year. His last race got down to a 0, which is definitely contender material here, unless you think Sinister Minister is going to pair up. I know that the Wood was over a sloppy track, but I don\'t believe that B&J is a \"mudder\", do you? I know he came home slow in the Wood, but the early pace in the wood and his breeding should alleviate 1 1/4 concerns. I know he comes in off a 3 point top, which isn\'t good, but which of Baffert\'s TRUE Derby contenders over the past 7-8 years have \"bounced\" in the Derby? How many have paired up or ran new tops? Having Baffert as your trainer here should alleviate some of the bounce concerns. Gomez gets off the fastest horse in the race to stick with B&J. What Baffert said BEFORE the Wood about B&J not being at his best over the cement-like West Coast tracks, and expecting him to run better on the eastern tracks is plausible. If you look at the \"California closers\" record in the Derby, there are some decent horses that couldn\'t close ground out west running over the cement, that moved forward at east coast tracks like Belmont and Churchill, that tend to play fairer.
All told, 12-1 looks about exactly right to me on Bob and John. He isn\'t the most likely winner, but he certainly fits amongs the top group, at least IMO>
Jim,
As Jerry has stated more than once,many sheets readers use different interpreting factors when looking at TG data.I have always been cautious of runners that get fast figs which have an inordinate component of \"wide\"(ground loss) in them, especially when measuring them against runners that are more 1-2w-ish, for example.
B and J was very wide turn one in the Wood(Prado race rode gomez around the clubhouse turn).Against the adjusted clock that day, the race came up slow by my measuring stick with the last 3/8ths beyond slow at 40.50(very fast early pace caused this imo).I agree with the fig awarded by TG.His last in CAL was very wide last turn(he had gate trouble in that race)
I have followed B & J all the way this year and was high on him early.I thought Jerry had given him slower figs than he earned in two Cal races. I no longer believe that. He has only won when he stalked from very close range and grinded down the winner or pulled away after setting slow fractions(Check his lines and see what you think) His internals(a form of pace figs) confirm he is fairly one paced and does not posess anywhere near the acceleration of 8 others.I do not believe B & J has any chance of being in his normal comfort zone, i.e.stalking from up close, so thats my main knock. Also,don\'t forget Baffy ran away with B&J from that \"thing\" (he calls Bro Derek that)
I will also be eliminating Bro Derek because he will NOT control this race like he usually does. I know he vied three wide one race but he pulled.How he will handle racing from behind/stalking a bit may be his undoing and he\'s chalk.
I note your methodology from your various posts. I followed the \"book\" religiously until I became more comfortable using figs along with other aides.If you took 5 experienced sheet readers you will surely have different opinions.If you are successful with your style,don\'t let anyone talk you out of it.Good Luck
Mike
Compelling argument Jim. But if you like B&J; why not AP Warrior at perhaps double the price. ( He is 22-1 offshore). He has beaten B&J 2of3, and rank the other, will stay ten panels and after the trainer switch is a different horse. He was a bit rushed into the Santa Anita and seems a new top. bbb
Mike (Miff),
Thanks for the informative post. You make a good case against B&J. I am curious as to who your eight others are.
I have to admit that I would not like B&J as much if he was trained by \"Joe Schmoe\" and not by Baffert. I don\'t bet trainers/jockeys, but in the Derby I do allow myself to get influenced by trainers occasionally.
Interesting point about big figs driven by ground loss. I am pretty sure that our host would disagree with your assertion, but I have asked the same question, albeit specific to Belmont, where I hate big figs driven by wide sweeping moves on that track, when wide and sweeping is often the place to be at \"big sandy\".
4 days left. Can\'t wait.
Bellsbendboy,
I do like AP Warrior. My current strategy, which of course will change a dozen times before Saturday is:
Play the Oaks - Derby Double, keying WonderladyAnne with 4 Derby Horses:
SweetNorthernSaint
AP Warrior
Point Determined
Bob and John
WonderladyAnne figures about 8-1, so I can go 4 deep in the double. She got down to a \"3\" last time, which is the co-fastest in the race. Balance has gotten to that level once and Wait A While has run it three times. I think WonderLadyAnne can improve on Friday and will appreciate the expected fast pace.
As for the Derby itself, I think SweetNorthernSaint to be the most likely winner, but by a small margin. I don\'t think anybody is more than 12% or so to win the race. Since I expect SNS to be about 7-1 or so, I can\'t key him. I will probably be keying AP Warrior, Point Determined and Bob and John over themselves + 6 others (SNS, Bluegrass Cat, Jazil, Cause to believe, Brother Derek and Barbaro). About a grand. If Sunriver gets in, I use him in the Superfecta slots.
I think AP warrior is a bet at 18-1 or so. As you say, he beat B&J 2 out of 3, and if he can relax, should get a nice trip. I really believe that the California \"closers\" do well when they come east and get the fairer tracks. Hence, PD, B&J and AP being three of my horses). I am also drawing a line through his race in the SA Derby, where he chased a loose on the lead Brother Derek. He ran a \"1\" the race before and I expect and hope for a move forward from that level, which makes him a possible winner at juicy odds.
Jim,
After they draw the post positions, I\'ll finalize. I\'ll be tossing ALL of the one dimensional speed horses for sure,regardless of their patterns or figs. I believe this derby will be more a trip/running style race than in most years.
Mike
Hi guys. Thanks for the concern. I am fine. Yes - I was reffering to the future bet I laid down on SNS in the 2nd pool (I think it was in February).
That was the first future bet I ever made. From what I hear - I could have gotten 75-1 at some Vegas Casinos on SNS in February but I found the TVG future bet much more convenient as I live in Northern California and about 600 miles from Sin City. Just a click of the mouse at 30-1 was just fine for me you know...
As far as sauce...I have not had a drink since October 17th, 2003...Every time I drank I broke out in orange...As in an orange jump suit:-)
In closing, I wish you all a very merry Derby Day. Mine will not be so merry. I am in So-Cal all week prepping for a big event we\'re doing down here this weekend (automotive biz stuff) and I will be working 12 hour days at Pomona Fairgrounds all three days Friday, Sat & Sun. So basically I won\'t be able to watch any of the undercard and am only slightly wishful that I can sneak in the race at 3:04pm PDT...
I hope you all cash GIANT tickets!!!! And bring home the Saint!!!!!! Or not...:-)
What race did he go wide in? The wood? He was 3w
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hi guys. Thanks for the concern. I am fine. Yes -
> I was reffering to the future bet I laid down on
> SNS in the 2nd pool (I think it was in February).
>
> That was the first future bet I ever made. From
> what I hear - I could have gotten 75-1 at some
> Vegas Casinos on SNS in February but I found the
> TVG future bet much more convenient as I live in
> Northern California and about 600 miles from Sin
> City. Just a click of the mouse at 30-1 was just
> fine for me you know...
>
> As far as sauce...I have not had a drink since
> October 17th, 2003...Every time I drank I broke
> out in orange...As in an orange jump suit:-)
>
> In closing, I wish you all a very merry Derby Day.
> Mine will not be so merry. I am in So-Cal all week
> prepping for a big event we\'re doing down here
> this weekend (automotive biz stuff) and I will be
> working 12 hour days at Pomona Fairgrounds all
> three days Friday, Sat & Sun. So basically I
> won\'t be able to watch any of the undercard and am
> only slightly wishful that I can sneak in the race
> at 3:04pm PDT...
>
> I hope you all cash GIANT tickets!!!! And bring
> home the Saint!!!!!! Or not...:-)
>
>
>
> Edited 2 times. Last edit at 05/02/06 08:32PM by
> Uncle Buck.
Good Luck Uncle Buck. My last statistical work says SoS has all star game. Not too fast to fry. Closes the best and is on the right curve. A decent draw and he\'ll be very tough. With this guy theres probably only one horse to really fear.
P.S. don\'t be afraid of big Hawthorne race changes. I think that filly is special too. And omen of omen, Beyer nixed him on the Gotham of all races. The Beyer Reverse Barometer Omen actually overcomes the Negative Nerve Jangled Desormeaux On Omen. It\'s all better now.
You may ask yourself
Where does that horse there go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right? ...am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
My god!...what have I done!
Same as it ever was...
Same...as...it...ever was.
How perfect that you of all people would quote TALKING HEADS.
Just a joke CTC.
Sure - and you can sing along with Love Shack after that !
But seriously - SNS has never bounced but eventually will . Why not bounce off a 2 pt move ?
He did take several races to reach that negative - 1 1/4 figure , in my view he looks stronger to pair-up than to bounce or move forward in the Derby ...