Richiebee posted his top 4 in a different thread. It would be nice to know where others are leaning at this point. All subject to change with post, jockey changes, weather, etc. Also, I\'ve not heard much talk on this board about testing and move-up trainers.
1. Sweetnorthersaint. I\'m thinking he\'s this year\'s Smarty Jones. Just simply the best horse. I also beleive he has \"tactical speed\" and will not run with the leaders.
2. Bob and John. Reminds me of Silver Charm. Same even-paced running style. He should be peaking on Saturday. He\'ll be my saver in case SNS has trouble, or is not the second coming.
3. Private Vow. Very likely to run a big one, but just a cut below the top 2.
3a. Barbaro. Very solid horse. I don\'t like Dynaformer as a Derby sire.
3b. Point Determined.
Brother Derek should run an honest race. He reminds me of Came Home a few years ago. Fast, but not a Derby winner. Thoughts?
Holy Bull---
I do not think BROTHER DEREK is CAME HOME who crawled home in his Santa Anita Derby and was one of those horse where running hard races took a lot out of him. I believe BD is a stronger, healthier horse.
That being said, if he\'s caught up in another Derby suicide duel, it doesn\'t matter how good or healthy he is.
BOB & JOHN may win the Derby, but he couldn\'t warm up SILVER CHARM. I think B&J is more likely to win the Indiana derby.
I agree with your pedigree assessment of BARBARO (DYNAFORMER). He tends to produce 1 1/8 grass runners.
Good Luck,
Joe
>That being said, if he\'s caught up in another Derby suicide duel, it doesn\'t matter how good or healthy he is.
Lets see Solis got Snow Chief to close early and he was cooked, came late and wide with Victory Gallop and Apptitude.
So at 9/2 in a twenty horse field we bet this time he gets it right.
>BOB & JOHN may win the Derby, but he couldn\'t warm up SILVER CHARM.
None of the others in this field could either.
And regarding the pace car remember what I said about the who controls the pace car in this Derby. Wayne Lukas did on four occasions and won two of those Derbys. One of those the pace car was all he had.
There are no Pat Days in this crew. Who have enough balls to let the field start to go by him before he gives his runner the green light.
I really don\'t get the facination with B&J to win the derby. I know it was a fast pace but he did crawl home in the wood. Don\'t you thinks he will be too close to the pace? My top horses are BD, SNS, Barbaro. I see one of those winning. Outside possible = Point determined, lawyer and AP warrior.
Your reasons for B&J?
1. He is fast enough figure-wise, especially with any improvement at all.
2. He has a nice running style. He gets called a plodder, which may be a little harsh.
3. Very solid pedigree which may be more evidence of room for improvement.
4. Bob Baffert. The Derby has been his target.
5. He has done nothing wrong this year. Lost by 2+ lengths in the San Felipe, a very strong race. He was still running well (and wide) at the finish. If I recall, there was some discussion about his Sham # being understated also.
In the wood he was on the front in fast fractions.
Historically horses do not move up off 3 0 coming into the derby.
I think PD is the better horse. I like is line better and he is one of two horses in their preps to come home last quarter in 25 and under. The other BD
Tony
I don\'t see PD\'s line better then B and J at all, it\'s the other way around. BJ has a nice progressive line from his 2 yr top and the last 2.75 move is not that much. On the other hand, PD had a slow 2yr number relative to winning the derby, has done a lot quickly, B and J definetly has the better line.
Tony, what did you think about his San Felipe race pace-wise? It looked like a Derby winning move to me. Adding 3 or 4 TG points, and subtracting the 5-wide turn that is.
B&J
Last 5/16 32.94
AP Warrior 31.86
Listen I am not saying he is not going to get a piece. I just don\'t see him winning.
In the wood final 3/8 in 40 or so pretty slow.
Another issue with B&J is he is more of a stalker.
For those of you who are supporting Bob & John or Point Determined, aren\'t you concerned about the two-tops pattern coming into the Derby with a significant amount of development (4+ points) from the level prior to the first top? B&J has developed 4 1/2 points and PD 5 1/4 from their tops before the consecutive tops. If you look in the archives at the Derby runners in the last 9 years, that pattern has been death in the Derby.
Caradoc,
Bob and Johns last two figs are \"loaded\" because of wide trips as oppposed to being off the charts fast against the adjusted clock.Beyer rated his last at 93 until they chickened out(99) because Gomez said the track slowed prior to the Wood.The Wood did have one of the fastest early pace figs of all the preps and B&J was close up, hence the 40.50 last 3/8ths.
I agree on PD but his style seems to help in this race.
Mike
BOB & JOHN will be about 10th or 11th at the half mile pole.
I\'m going on both Ragozin and Thorograph, and B&J looks good to go on both, maybe a little better on Rag\'s I don\'t like PD on either. B&J has never bounced, I think he will pair up that last # come Sat. I love the fact it was on the slop, top in the slop = pair up ( fast track ).
Those \"come home\" times in the SA Derby are way over-rated IMO Tony. Brother Derek set soft fractions, so of course they came home fast. The pace in the Wood was very quick, by any standard and of course they came home slower.
Silver Charm came home very slowly in his SA Derby after pressing some Lukas filly on the lead through hot fractions. All the \"experts\" said his slow come home time was cause for concern in getting the 1 1/4.
Bob and John will get the distance, as will a few others.
\"getting the distance\" is now an over-rated part of the Derby winning profile anyway. Sounds like heresy, but look at the sires of recent winners:
Holy Bull
Our Emblem
Distorted Humor
Holy Bull did win at a distance of ground, but he was certainly more \"brilliant speed\", than stamina/endurance.
Caradoc-- without tipping my hand (I\'m going to get into related issues in the seminar), that is one of the most interesting posts here in a long time. Imagine, a pattern/development post!
JB,
The whole foundation of my handicapping is comparing this years patterns to historical derby patterns - what works what does not and why I have been very negative on SM. After last year I learned my lesson with jumpers.
Like you have said before with most the best you can hope for is a pair up
Smooth fast lines win the derby
for what it\'s worth, some fairly recent two-top Baffert history coming into Derby;
Indian Charlie;
developed 6.5 from prior top; regressed 1.5 in Derby (third)
Congaree;
developed 4.5 from prior top; regressed .25 in Derby (third)
Real Quiet;
developed 3.25 from prior top; paired up in Derby (first)
Point Given;
developed 3 from prior top; regressed 5 in Derby
and a paired-top
War Emblem;
developed 7.25 from prior top; forward 1.5 in Derby (first)
Right, and even including Giacomo, you would have to think that the flat 3yo line (a horse not progressing through his 2yo top, or his first effort at 3, whichever was the better effort) is not a good pattern either in the Derby. If I\'m interpreting the data in the archives correctly, there\'s a greater than 80% chance that Brother Derek either runs an off race or X\'s in the Derby.
After figs, developmental patterns, running styles, and recent workouts I am left with the intangible factors. All thing being equal (which they very rarely are, thats why they call it gambling!) in my opinion, due to the \'intangibles\' the winner of this years derby will come from the Baffert barn for the following reasons:
- The controlling speed in SM.
- The second flight/stalker in Bob and John.
- The confirmed closer in PD.
If the field lets SM get away from the field in >47 and or 1:11 He is GONE
If Romans or BD or LR or whoever choose to run with him then they are all
cooked, which then sets it up for the second flight ie, Bob and John.
If for some reason Bob and John lays too close or doesn\'t fire, PD will be
lurking and closing.
Knowing that Gomez has the best agent in the business and also knowing that he had his chioce of all 3 it becomes clear why Bob and John is my pick.
Tony
Please throw out history as recent history will dictate past history is meaningless. Get off of the past and move on
NC Tony