when the TG seminar comes out...is there anyone who won\'t see the small, continual progress and easy moves forward? Isn\'t that what TG is built on? Let\'s be honest, TG is being very cautious with # since the BC...I think this will be Alan/JB\'s horse...
Shanahan said:
\"when the TG seminar comes out...is there anyone who won\'t see the small, continual progress and easy moves forward? Isn\'t that what TG is built on? Let\'s be honest, TG is being very cautious with # since the BC...I think this will be Alan/JB\'s horse..\"
Shanahan,
If TG changes his last fig to negative-3(which Jerry said they may after Sat results), they will probably toss him or have to deviate from their usual thinking.
Mike
Shanahan-- Please explain the comment about being cautious with figures since the BC. As opposed to... having four martinis, putting my feet up, and using ink instead of a pencil with an eraser, like I did before the BC?
As someone who is around the horse, a.m. rider, groom and connections every morning here in Louisville, anyone leaning in this direction is encouraged to NOT DEVIATE from their thinking...
He\'ll work 6f tomorrow before dawn under his regular morning rider. Let me limit my enthusiasm by simply saying he is a fascinating animal...
(In one of those interesting Derby trivia sidebars (omens?), SNS\'s morning man is veteran Ernesto Ferdinand. And what horse should be celebrating the 20th anniversary of their Derby victory this year???)
FYI... Tonight on Talking Horses Stakes Preview Show:
Barcley Tagg on Showing Up/Funny Cide...
Scheduled call ins from:
Bill Mott (Angara/Pommes Frites in Beauguay; My Lordship in the Hollywood Wildcat)
Tom Albertrani (Bernadini in the Withers; Woodlander in the Miami Mile; Deputy Glitters in Derby)
SIRIUS Channell 125, 4-7pm EST... Replayed Saturday 10-1pm EST Channel 123...
Or on the Net: http://www.attheracesandbeyond.com
Steve-- since you are in ground central for Derby rumors-- hear anything about why Barbaro didn\'t work for 3 weeks?
TGJB---
Certainly looks as if races take a lot out of BARBARO. Should this horse win the Derby, he may not only skip the Preakness...he may point to the Travers.
Good luck,
Joe B.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Steve-- since you are in ground central for Derby
> rumors-- hear anything about why Barbaro didn\'t
> work for 3 weeks?
Matz says the horse worked on Sunday, April 16. The numbers he gave were 4f in 51.00. This workout eluded the clockers for some reason.
That\'s impossible. Matz gives this horse at least 3 weeks between works.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'s impossible. Matz gives this horse at least
> 3 weeks between works.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Joe, I cannot personally vouch for the workout, as I did not see it.
But Matz said the horse worked the last two Sundays at Keeneland, with a 4f work in :51.00 on April 16. He added that he was pleased with the move. He said he did not know why the clockers missed it.
Kasept Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> As someone who is around the horse, a.m. rider,
> groom and connections every morning here in
> Louisville, anyone leaning in this direction is
> encouraged to NOT DEVIATE from their thinking...
>
> He\'ll work 6f tomorrow before dawn under his
> regular morning rider. Let me limit my enthusiasm
> by simply saying he is a fascinating animal...
>
> (In one of those interesting Derby trivia sidebars
> (omens?), SNS\'s morning man is veteran Ernesto
> Ferdinand. And what horse should be celebrating
> the 20th anniversary of their Derby victory this
> year???)
>
>
>
> FYI... Tonight on Talking Horses Stakes Preview
> Show:
>
> Barcley Tagg on Showing Up/Funny Cide...
>
> Scheduled call ins from:
>
> Bill Mott (Angara/Pommes Frites in Beauguay; My
> Lordship in the Hollywood Wildcat)
>
> Tom Albertrani (Bernadini in the Withers;
> Woodlander in the Miami Mile; Deputy Glitters in
> Derby)
>
> SIRIUS Channell 125, 4-7pm EST... Replayed
> Saturday 10-1pm EST Channel 123...
>
> Or on the Net:
I know he\'s a fascinating animal. That\'s why I was the first one to bring him up on this VERY board and tout him as a very powerful long striding horse. I haven\'t seen one motor like him in many years. I instantly ran to my computer to post here following the Jan 7th race. I have a lot of respect for this board...
Dominguez broke his maiden that day and I\'m sure he\'s missing not being on him anymore. Kent D will do fine in the big dance and I might be able to cash a very nice future...
I hope he\'s 5-1 next Saturday. Anyone got any predections of what his off odds will be?
He\'s been low profile, I\'ll say he\'ll go off at 8-1 to 10-1
He is not low profile, his bandwagon is filling up pretty quickly. He looks good on Tgraph, he looks very good on Rags, and his Beyers are very good. You have the guy on bloodhorse saying that \"every ticket must include Sweet Northern Saint\".
Uncle Buck will get his 5-1, but I think 7-1 about tops for this guy. Too many positives.
Your right I was thinking about BARBARO being low profile. Sorry.
7-1 ? wow, what do you think Mike B. will make his ML odds?? I was thinking 15-1 ml
Judging by the number of people on this board who like him (including me), he just might be co-favorite with Brother Derek.
I know this might sound crazy but, based on what I\'ve been reading on some non-sheet handicapping sites,I don\'t think Brother Derek is going to be the favorite.The conventional wisdom appears to be toss all the speed and bet closers,Point Determined comes up a lot.
The morning line in the Derby is never very good, but I bet Battaglia puts him at 8-1.
As for Brother Derek, his bandwagon does seem to be emptying. I would guess he could be the 9-2 favorite.
As I read the various prognasticators and update my expected odds, I have something like:
Brother Derek 9-2
Lawyer Ron 6-1 (yes Jerry, that means I owe you a beer)
SweetNorthernSait 7-1
Barbaro 9-1
Sinister Minister 10-1
Point Determined 10-1
Bob and John 12-1
AP Warrior 15-1
The rest 25-1 to 80-1
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Kasept Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > >
> > As someone who is around the horse, a.m.
> rider,
> > groom and connections every morning here in
> > Louisville, anyone leaning in this direction
> is
> > encouraged to NOT DEVIATE from their
> thinking...
> >
> > He\'ll work 6f tomorrow before dawn under his
> > regular morning rider. Let me limit my
> enthusiasm
> > by simply saying he is a fascinating
> animal...
> >
> > (In one of those interesting Derby trivia
> sidebars
> > (omens?), SNS\'s morning man is veteran
> Ernesto
> > Ferdinand. And what horse should be
> celebrating
> > the 20th anniversary of their Derby victory
> this
> > year???)
> >
> >
> >
> > FYI... Tonight on Talking Horses Stakes
> Preview
> > Show:
> >
> > Barcley Tagg on Showing Up/Funny Cide...
> >
> > Scheduled call ins from:
> >
> > Bill Mott (Angara/Pommes Frites in Beauguay;
> My
> > Lordship in the Hollywood Wildcat)
> >
> > Tom Albertrani (Bernadini in the Withers;
> > Woodlander in the Miami Mile; Deputy Glitters
> in
> > Derby)
> >
> > SIRIUS Channell 125, 4-7pm EST... Replayed
> > Saturday 10-1pm EST Channel 123...
> >
> > Or on the Net:
>
> I know he\'s a fascinating animal. That\'s why I was
> the first one to bring him up on this VERY board
> and tout him as a very powerful long striding
> horse. I haven\'t seen one motor like him in many
> years. I instantly ran to my computer to post here
> following the Jan 7th race. I have a lot of
> respect for this board...
>
> Dominguez broke his maiden that day and I\'m sure
> he\'s missing not being on him anymore. Kent D will
> do fine in the big dance and I might be able to
> cash a very nice future...
>
> I hope he\'s 5-1 next Saturday. Anyone got any
> predections of what his off odds will be?
>
I\'ll vouch for Uncle Buck. I was aware it was a good race but when he forced me to look closely at the card and follow up by posting the conclusion that he was the best horse that ran that day at Aqueduct. The other big horse that ran that day was of course was Achilles of Troy. Any other year I\'d say we have our winner. This year, I am not certain.
Off odds of 14-1
Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying out loud. He beat no one.
CtC
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shanahan-- Please explain the comment about being
> cautious with figures since the BC. As opposed
> to... having four martinis, putting my feet up,
> and using ink instead of a pencil with an eraser,
> like I did before the BC?
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/28/06 02:45PM by
> TGJB.
Andy Beyer said he made his figures with a bottle of scotch. Its a well know fact that all figure makers drink. Its like being in Wisconsin. You know they are all drunk.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shanahan-- Please explain the comment about being
> cautious with figures since the BC. As opposed
> to... having four martinis, putting my feet up,
> and using ink instead of a pencil with an eraser,
> like I did before the BC?
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/28/06 02:45PM by
> TGJB.
JB - not sure where you get the martini comment - wasn\'t mine...in any case, the point is that since I have been a customer, TG has been insistent that the progressing horse (small, steady moves forward) is the horse to have...no? I have not mastered the patterns yet - probably never will - but I try and follow the horse that does not make the BIG move early in his/her career, then disappear. If there is one thing I have learned and appreciated, that\'s it.
Why the sarcasm? If you\'re referring to the BC comment, well...you yourself revisited those # many times, no? Sounded almost like our friend JKEV - without the profanity.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
>
> Off odds of 14-1
>
> Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying out
> loud. He beat no one.
>
> CtC
>
>
>I have really only picked one rather longshot in the drby or preps, and that was indeed WAR EMBLEM...in both the IL Derby & KY Derby (qualifies as redboard for sure, eh?)...but CTC - am I crazy or is this horse the most appropriate TG pattern horse going in?
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
>
> >
> > Off odds of 14-1
> >
> > Its the Grade II Illinois Derby for crying
> out
> > loud. He beat no one.
> >
> > CtC
> >
> >
> >I have really only picked one rather longshot
> in the drby or preps, and that was indeed WAR
> EMBLEM...in both the IL Derby & KY Derby
> (qualifies as redboard for sure, eh?)...but CTC -
> am I crazy or is this horse the most appropriate
> TG pattern horse going in?
>
>
>
Brother Derek has a slew of graded stakes
Lawyer Ron is undefeated on the dirt
Barbaro is undefeated and a media darling
Bob and John and Point Determined and Sinister Minister come in for the best trainer in the game
Pletcher brings in Keyed Entry who beat SnS, along with the Mighty Mighty Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver if hes lucky. You don\'t buck Todd Pletcher.
I really don\'t know what the Tgraph pattern is on SnS because I make my own numbers for the cards with the big races. (Jazz up stock numbers actually) Last I heard Tgraph had him for a Neg 1 in his last. Which would be a competitive Derby number.
What\'s it going to be a -1 or what?? Any case, here\'s my two cents. I will add him in my tickets only because of the nice moving forward line. I see him bouncing in the derby how high? I don\'t know, but I wouldn\'t key him hoping he only bouncing 2pts and will win. From 2000 to 2005 there\'s been 8 horses that has run neg #\'s in their last race right before the derby and only 1 win and 1 2nd, 1 3rd, odds 9-2 3rd, 5-2 loss, 21-1 loss, 6-1 loss, 4-1 won, 5-1 2nd, 8-1 loss, 9-1 loss. Point is anyone keying him and why? Are you seeing another move coming from him? Then again if he wins, and one of my other horses run up with him, I could live with that.
Kev, I am seeing it as no bounce...continued small move forward...and keying him as a TG \"classic progression\" horse.
Hey CTC - I\'m the flashy bull nut, and I am playing a simple tri at this point of SNS/FB-Jazil/all and all other combos with those keys. Of course, if they don\'t get in, I\'m pretty much OoL...but it\'s a helluva lot of fun, isn\'t it?
This field is so pitiful that a zero (0) will be good enough.
A zero will get it done when BOB&JOHN pairs up that last number of his. I\'m down with FLASHY BULL also hope he gets in.
I would point him for the 3 yo turf races at Colonial all worth 1 Million.
NC Tony
Plus you got Steve Talking the Horse up on Talking Horses- and every guest he brings on loves the horse. My Guess is 5-1 right now.
This has become officially the wiseguy horse.
NC Tony
There is far too much pace for a zero to win. Flashy Bull is eligible for a one other than, in which, at this track, this meet, he would not be favored, and may not win. I must consider the possibility that you and Chuckles toss darts together. bbb
\"Flashy Bull is eligible for a one other than\"
So was GIACOMO last year. Only four horses in this has has broken threw to a neg. I didn\'t say FB was my top pick, has a crack at hitting the board, B&J is my pick.
Every owner places his horses where they can win the biggest purses they are capable of winning. It should be no surprise that many of the most successful 3yos race in California, year after year. The purses are generally bigger. I look to California first for my Derby selections because of this and those horses have come through with regularity.
Not only do I want my Derby selections to compete against the best (starting with California), I want a trainer proven capable of beating the others, based on experience. Novice trainers need not apply for inclusion.
The SA Derby was Dan Hendricks Kentucky Derby. It likely meant as much to him as the KY Derby means to Bob Baffert, so Brother Derek was probably as cranked as Hendricks could get him going into that race. Baffert's horse on the other hand was very likely NOT cranked, since his goal is the KY Derby.
Baffert's two other 3 YOs likewise were probably not wound up for the SA Derby and, given the obvious pace scenario there, he decided to send them elsewhere against what he probably considered to be inferior packs of 3 YOs.
In winning both of those races, relatively easily, he not only proved the quality of the horses running in California this year, but he also got to tighten the screws on BJ and SM in the process. These were very nice paid workouts.
Don't over think this one. Just look at the results in the Bluegrass and the Wood and bet against Baffert at your peril. He's been there. He's proven he knows how to prepare them. He's won it before and will win it again.
This year box a Baffert exacta and key a box of his three in tris and supers on top of five other choices and you may collect a set of big numbers.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every owner places his horses where they can win
> the biggest purses they are capable of winning.
> It should be no surprise that many of the most
> successful 3yos race in California, year after
> year. The purses are generally bigger. I look to
> California first for my Derby selections because
> of this and those horses have come through with
> regularity.
>
> Not only do I want my Derby selections to compete
> against the best (starting with California), I
> want a trainer proven capable of beating the
> others, based on experience. Novice trainers need
> not apply for inclusion.
>
> The SA Derby was Dan Hendricks Kentucky Derby. It
> likely meant as much to him as the KY Derby means
> to Bob Baffert, so Brother Derek was probably as
> cranked as Hendricks could get him going into that
> race. Baffert's horse on the other hand was very
> likely NOT cranked, since his goal is the KY
> Derby.
>
> Baffert's two other 3 YOs likewise were probably
> not wound up for the SA Derby and, given the
> obvious pace scenario there, he decided to send
> them elsewhere against what he probably considered
> to be inferior packs of 3 YOs.
>
> In winning both of those races, relatively easily,
> he not only proved the quality of the horses
> running in California this year, but he also got
> to tighten the screws on BJ and SM in the process.
> These were very nice paid workouts.
>
> Don't over think this one. Just look at the
> results in the Bluegrass and the Wood and bet
> against Baffert at your peril. He's been there.
> He's proven he knows how to prepare them. He's
> won it before and will win it again.
>
> This year box a Baffert exacta and key a box of
> his three in tris and supers on top of five other
> choices and you may collect a set of big
> numbers.
Actually the California purses are dropping vs. other circuits and last I checked they were not among the top circuits. Its still not a bad place to run a good horse, but other than Bro Derek they are all Kentucky horses anyway.
Note the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby were the highest purse preps.
Betting Baffert isn\'t exactly betting Kalifornia. He preps wherever. You could say hes not been especially successful in Kalifornia this year and it has nothing to do with the purse structure and quality of horses hes faced out there. Even Real Quiet and Silver Charm didn\'t do their best running out West. Its not like the horses beating them there were their betters.
Shanahan-- my \"sarcasm\" was in response to the implication that we weren\'t careful BEFORE the BC.
Several reactions.
A really quick survey of purses:
Allowance NW 3 at route: SA 62,000, CD 58,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 37,000
Allowance NW 2 at route: SA 58,000, CD 54,000 minus 11,000, Gulf 33,000
MSW: SA 50,000, CD 50,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 32,000
Southern California, for a good horse, is still the top or close to it in purses. (By the way, the minus numbers at Churchill are the added monies that get paid only to KY breds, which makes the purses much lower there.)
My point isn\'t about where the horse is born, but where an owner will race a good horse. He has a better shot at good purses all through the early part of a career in Southern Cal.
It doesn\'t matter that the FLA Derby or other races have purses the same size as Cal races. Those are single incidents. If I can\'t win the SA Derby, I can still take down more at the races leading up to it if my horse wins.
Also, and this is a big also, you don\'t have to do a lot of shipping between the 2YO and 3YO prep races down there, whereas you have to constantly ship horses back east due to weather and the brevity of meets. Your good 2YO has a better chance of developing without having to change environments as often.
My thinking on Baffert is really simple, probably too simple to lead to success in betting the Derby this year. He has a national perspective...how else did he end up with Silver Charm and others without it? He knew his two shippers had a better chance to win money and maybe races while only prepping them at Keeneland and Aqueduct because the competition there set up easier than it would in Santa Anita.
Thus, he has three improving horses going to Churchill who have each made their owners important money in the easiest races Baffert could find that fit their KY Derby preparation schedules.
Trying to parse the differences between results at Hawthorne or Gulfstream or wherever may work out, but a lot of these horses look pretty much alike other than their trainers and what I believe their trainers intentions are or were.
Novice Derby trail trainers squeeze the lemon to win the preps because that money means a great deal to them. Guys like Baffert know where the real payoff is and only try to win preps when they have a tremendous edge.
I may not hit my bet, but I still think this is a year he can put a couple of them in the photo.
I see, my bad...BC took a toll on us all, but it was certainly the exception - at least in my experience - with TG product...looking forward to the Derby seminar!
Shanahan-- no problem.
No comment on the Baffert horses, but a) owners seldom choose where their horses will run, b) neither they nor their trainers usually have an idea of the right place to run (Baffert being an exception), c) lots of other factors besides purse size (like geography and an unwillingness to ship) determine where horses run, and d) the trainers of the last 3 Derby winners were Shirrefs, Servis, and Tagg, who didn\'t have a whole lot of Derby experience between them.
I\'m listening to MAMBO SUN, it fits real nice.
I\'m an owner-breeder. I determine exactly where my horses run. Always have. And for some strange reason purses mean an awful lot to me.
I could be running my best horse, a Florida bred, in soft company at Calder right now, but he can win in the NY NJ area, so that\'s where he is.
I haven\'t hit the Derby winner every year, but I have bet the winner more than 40% of the time since 1960 and kind of feel that the experienced trainer has paid off for me most of the time. (Who here picked Giacomo and his inexperienced trainer last year? Fluke)
We make the same point about shipping. And about Baffert.
I appreciate your not wanting to comment about his horses,but they must be pretty fair to ship a few thousand miles and destroy the local fields the way they did. He has a perfect contingent for this year\'s field, which is loaded with speed.
He can force the pace with a lightening bolt and pick up the pieces when the front end falls apart. I\'m not saying a Baffert exacta will happen, but there\'s a good chance it can happen and at fairly good odds.
That\'s all.