With Seaside Retreat confirmed, it looks like Sunriver needs an injury to get in:
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33244
The story includes an interesting quote from Mark Casse about why fields tend to spread out at Keeneland:
\"I think what happens over at Keeneland is either you like it or you don\'t like it,\" Casse said. \"Some of the horses get to the bottom of the track and if they get to the bottom of the track they run really fast. Our horse swam in it. Patrick said he was worn out in the post parade.\"
BitPlayer--
That leads to a handicapping dilemma. I can understand tossing the number as if it never happened. But you are now left with a runner who may have taken nothing,in the way of conditioning or adding sharpness,away from his last prep race.
Let\'s use BLUEGRASS CAT as an example. Let\'s toss his Bluegrass #. Now, he appears to be a contender,assuming he improves off of his Tampa #. How does he stack up against those with a similar pattern, similar numbers, etc. who ran well within the last 3-4 weeks as opposed to March 18th?
Good Luck,
joe B.
This is the question I struggle with most. Can the thoro-pattern be taken at face value? Doesn\'t matter what figs you use, BG Cat\'s last race is too bad to be believed. But did he get anything out of it? This seems like a huge question. The horse got down to a real low number in a 1M stakes as a 2YO, won the Remesen @9F with a good number, and has only moved forward off his 2YO top a limited amount to a number that says he can be a factor. The one thing I have found to point too is that I don\'t think any Derby winner has ever run THAT bad in their final prep. 2nd? 3rd? 4th?
Joe B. -
I guess I\'d take the position that, since he got tired during the race, BG Cat did get conditioning out of the Blue Grass. One could even argue that it\'s advantageous to get legged up without the jarring effects of running fast. Of course, when they go backwards like that (especially after sputtering turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby) you always worry that something other than the track was the problem. I\'d take 30/1, but not 20/1.
Joe, refresh my recollection regarding your profile for a Derby horse. I remember something about a strong 7 furlongs (on the pace I think) at 2.
BitPlayer
Invisible Ink comes to mind as another Pletcher science project that ran fast in Fla and then crapped out in the Blue Grass. Sure he didn\'t win the derby, but anyone here that won\'t take a placed bomb? Also, gotta believe there\'s little chance BG Cat will make the short list of wiseguy plays. Any word on the new jock?
Bitplayer-
I\'ve looked at the TB race where he is \'sputtering\' trning for home about 10 times. I first thought the same thing, but when you see that he actually moved forward on TG significantly while \'sputtering\' I became confused. My take now is that since the race had a painfully slow pace, they were actually motoring when they turn for home. After viewing all of his races he doesn\'t seem to have quick acceleration....he\'s a grinder. I think thats why at the end of that race he was running strong and closing ground. makes me think 10F will be perect for him, but if he gets stuck in traffic or stopped, he\'s done
An interesting study-- and we\'re not going to be the ones to do it, we\'ve been doing studies up the wazoo for the seminar-- would be to look at all the horses that have come out of the BG, and compare how the winners have done compared to the also-rans. I can certainly remember one that came in off the off race, and it was very good to us.
On SNS-- at least one horse out of the Ill Derby will be running back this weekend. If by some chance that one runs 1 3/4 points faster than I gave him (or pairs up), things will be a lot easier. Whatever we do will be done by the time we put up the final set with the seminar Wed night, and I\'ll announce it here.
The more you look at this stuff, the more you realize it all comes down to asking the right questions.
My point on betting the Derby was not to spread too much just to cash. Get value on your play, and sometimes (not always) that means keeping it simple. But I do NOT think the Derby is just another race when it comes to betting-- it is the race I have done the best on by far, and there are reasons for it (understanding of 3yo patterns, accurate data, lots of dumb money in the pools, lots of information available publicly, etc.). I wish they ran the damn thing once a week.
After reading all thoughts here for years on Derby profiles, and going through all the archives, it seems the biggest headscratcher has to be Proud Citizen. Thoughts?
JB-
your article from 2003 is one of the best arguments ever made on the subject. Yet it seems that with all that has transpired since you wrote it, it\'s a subject that maybe should be revisted?? The profusion of huge negative numbers BEFORE the Derby in the last couple of years would seem to make the point, or at least add some compelling evidence to the argument.
One thing I never understood about Andy Beyers stance that horses are NOT getting faster and are actually becoming more frail over time due to poor breeding, was the fact that at the same time he started saying that you could EASILY go breed a 20YO mare with classic bloodlines to a 24YO stallion, and in essence (from a genetic standpoint) that would instantly take you back in time 20 years to when the breed was supposedly more hearty. In theory then such a mating should consistently produce horses superior to those from younger, more flawed horses. But it doesn\'t work that way at all.
tmc-- doesn\'t matter whether I want to revisit it, Miff will anyway.
Your premise-- which I obviously accept-- is that our figures are accurate. You\'re not going to believe this, but some don\'t.
I do believe the figures are accurate, if only because I reject the idea that modern bloodlines are making horses more infirm and slower. As I said, if that were true then a horse like Dynaformer or Dixiland Band should have become dominant stallions. Breeding an older mare to them instantly takes you back to 1985 and 1980 respectively, and only one step removed from 1969 and 1961.
Trained my Moses.
Need anything else.......
Jerry,
Those of us who cashed on Thunder Gulch remember his pattern well. For the last ten years, no runner has come out of the BG to win. How the horse that x\'d fared, compared to winners,I do not know.Recent history, last 6, has 3 winners out of the Wood, with one each from the SA, ARK and Ill derbies.
After watching last years winner,Giacomo,a card carrying member of the Slow-ski family,I am inclined to have more regard for this years pace set up.
Mike
Jerry,
Suggest you check out Pletcher and others comments about how Churchill will be SCRAPED, as always on derby day.
\"They pack that track down until it\'s a brick road\" from Tagg who trained a recent derby winner. So much for your theory that tracks are slower, at least in this case.
Pssst, maybe it\'s the surface causing lots of negatives on big race days and they ain\'t two seconds faster.
There were a number of things going on last year-- hot pace, dead rail, and testing. So far, no stories this year about testing-- remember that big names came up empty in graded stakes all that week.
I for one will be watching.
As for Proud Citizen, if you go back to that seminar, I pointed out that Lukas had been getting Zito-like jumpups recently in Kentucky. Which is why I left him in myself.
BitPlayer---
Yes, you have a good memory. In years past (I know some may argue things have changed), the ability of a 2yo to run a strong 7f/mile (or preferrably both), translated well into their ability to handle a 1 1/4 as a young 3yo.
SEA HERO, GO FOR GIN, UNBRIDLED, FUNNY CIDE come to mind.
Yes, I know what you\'re thinking. BG CAT. Difference here is most of the others showed progression in their numbers as 3yos and none of them ran 4th by 21 lengths in their final prep. Even if you hate Keenland, show some life.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Miff-- the argument is not about whether CD is faster on those days than it is on the other days that week, which I would have to look up for each year to see.
But you still don\'t grasp how the figures are made. When I first get the day, the whole thing has already been adjusted for a rough track speed based on the figure histories of the horses, similar to using pars (variants), but just as a starting point. I\'m just correcting from there-- most of the time I only look at my corrections from that \"par\", and don\'t even pay attention to what the actual track speed is.
Point being-- we do the figures the same way, no matter whether the horses are GI or 5 claimers-- based on the histories of the horses. All the stuff you say about assigning figures based on preconceptions is totally wrong.
TGJB---
From looking at your graphs for all of the Derby winners and the ones that ran well or better than expected, PROUD CITIZEN is a real head scratcher to me. Certainly not as much as CLOSING ARGUMENT, however. That could be attributed to a McLaughlin \"jump up.\"
Your thoughts on the young 3yo who breaks through to a new top off of a 6 week layoff (but not a huge jump from his 2yo top), regresses slightly in his pre-Derby prep, and goes into the Derby off of a 3 prep schedule?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
And the likely cause of these amazing jumpups, in your opinion?
Joe-- see below for Proud Citizen. See the seminar next week for discussions of patterns, number of starts, etc.
But Closing Argument and VG do have some things in common...
two 3YO preps?
tmc-- Clean Living.
Magic-- yup, and Proud Citizen as well. The idea that 2 preps doesn\'t work because VG and PC drew post 100, or because Giacomo chose the same day to jump 4 points, is ridiculous.
Ha ha. Reminds me of Allie Reynolds\'s explanation for his success as a major league pitcher ... \"clean living and a fast outfield\".
I\'ve only got what\'s in the archive, and there\'s not much data to go on. The only two X\'s in the Blue Grass were Ten Cents A Shine (who came back to run a new top in the Derby) and Hal\'s Hope (who X\'d even worse in the Derby). I\'m finding ten \"Off\" races in the Blue Grass, with two horses getting back to their tops in the Derby (Invisible Ink and AP Valentine), five running \"Off\" races (Action This Day, Limehouse, Cape Town, Pulpit, and Harlan\'s Holiday), and three X\'s (Offlee Wild, High Yield and Sun King). The median performance of these twelve horses in the Derby was 2.75 points off their Tops.
For the 22 others, I find:
3 Tops (14%)
5 Pairs (23%)
4 Off (18%)
10 \"X\" (45%)
with a median performance in the Derby 2.5 points off their Tops.
Thanks
Joe B. -
After this morning\'s work by Bluegrass Cat, I\'m thinking you may be right.
Someone else posted the suggestion that Pletcher might scratch the Cat if that would allow Sunriver to get in. I was skeptical because the ownership is different, but with Winstar having bought an interest in another Derby horse (Sharp Humor) and Angel being on Sunriver instead of Bluegrass Cat this morn, and no rider having been named for the Cat (although Dominguez has been mentioned), that may be in the cards.