Only one horse has run his last 8th of the 1&8th preps in under 13secs. Hmmmmmm.
re: SM and his big jump and whether he bounces...how does the pace he set in the BG factor in ......Hmmmmmmm
For Jerry, re your indecision on SNS\'s I Derby, do the splits of the race influence the final fig in a tricky situation like this?
Question: 2 3yo\'s run a big jump up 4 pt. move the prep before the K Derby, horse A sets a hot pace for (4 and 6f)and finishes with a -2; horse B also hits the -2 but the pace of his race is just sort of average for that track and that day. Does this tell us who is more apt to bounce and who isn\'t?
What do we do with the race at GP and the way speed held up most af the meet?
Can SH, and LR run with SM? Does Barbaro need to be on the pace?
And what about BD\'s Cal races which were just average early pace, what happens when he tries to run up front in the Derby......
And how do we figure B&J\'s Wood in the slop......Hmmmmmm
Good points!
Horses who\'s last 1/4 25 and under very important factor which Giacamo had last year.
AP
Barbaro
BD
Jazil
Point D
Sweetnorthern
How about a little mention of pace JB
Eveyone 13 and older on this board knows Brown won\'t respond to these type questions(no offense intended) BUT...
If pace doesn\'t MAKE the race,it certainly plays a role in the various scenerios which we need to concern ourselves with.
How the derby busts out of the gate is the only question mark I have in your list(the others I will gamble on or against).
Post position will allay most of my situational \"what ifs\",and statements such as Romans\' will help me set a visual for entering the 1st turn.
One thing I stay away from is putting a line on all the runners...it tends to follow my own sub-conscious preferences into the equation.
Seeking out an underlay points out a discrepancy and makes a race bettable.Finding an overlay CREATES a betting possibility.
David-- that is the most coherent, articulate post of yours I\'ve read. Hopefully I\'ll be reading more.
There were several horses that ran the last 1/8 under 13.
BD
Barbaro
SNS
PD
Jazil
Throw out Barbaro\'s sub-13 final 1/8 since it was on turf... whole different ballgame. Add Bob And John who ran a 12 3/5 final 1/8 in the Sham.
On top of that... SNS has the fastest final 1/8 with a 12 1/5, a very fast 24 3/5 final 1/4 mile in the Miracle Wood, and a stunning 30 3/5 for the final 5/16 in the Gotham. This is a horse in the zone... IMO, he\'s one length away from being the Derby favorite, as he would be 5 for 5 by a total of about 43 lengths. Showing his fitness, he pops a 5f breeze in a minute flat, best of 25 after the ILL Derby. I think he is clearly the best of the E or E/P horses and will have to hold off Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Bob And John, and Cause to Believe (very underrated). CTB has two excellent closing races in NoCal...he\'ll lay far back on Derby Day and come late.
One more thought... the Gotham was a tremendous race. Like Now came home in 30 4/5, and Keyed Entry and SNS in 30 3/5.
SNS bothers me because of his eagerness to rate within 2 lengths of the lead. Yes, I see his closing times, but if this were any other race, (and arguably it is), I would be concerned that he has not shown the ability to rate off of blistering pace, like B Derek has done and CTB in No. California. CTB bothers me also because he looks so small, but I think he will enjoy a big field and is a great ITM bet.
Ten Most Wanted costs me a bunch of money a few years ago and I still have that in my head making me suspicious of the Ill Derby. Also, watching the tape of the Gotham bothers me because this horse could not get by LN and Kentry.
While his Ill Derby figure may be out of sight, can he run a race with a 45/25 quarter? Can he close if he chooses to sit back 10 lengths?
SNS is the horse that I am going to have to include because I will beat myself if he wins and I did not, but I have questions about him that I wish could be better answered.
scottv Wrote:
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> SNS bothers me because of his eagerness to rate
> within 2 lengths of the lead. Yes, I see his
> closing times, but if this were any other race,
> (and arguably it is), I would be concerned that he
> has not shown the ability to rate off of
> blistering pace, like B Derek has done and CTB in
> No. California. CTB bothers me also because he
> looks so small, but I think he will enjoy a big
> field and is a great ITM bet.
>
> Ten Most Wanted costs me a bunch of money a few
> years ago and I still have that in my head making
> me suspicious of the Ill Derby. Also, watching
> the tape of the Gotham bothers me because this
> horse could not get by LN and Kentry.
>
> While his Ill Derby figure may be out of sight,
> can he run a race with a 45/25 quarter? Can he
> close if he chooses to sit back 10 lengths?
>
All good questions...
I\'m not sure what your talking about with Brother Derek sitting off the pace. He did it once at 4 1/2f in his first race. Not sure how that helps now.
CTB - size doesn\'t matter
SNS - no way in hell Desormeaux is going to get sucked into some suicidal speed duel. Get out a film of the 2000 Derby and watch how he handled FuPeg - I expect something similar. Anyone near a crazy pace is going to stop - I don\'t give a damn who it is... .as for the Gotham, watch the film again, he comes home in 30 3/5 for the final 5/16 while being hung out to dry on both turns. Like Now was equal weights with SNS and had the rail clearly giving SNS a better number. Keyed Entry was giving four pounds but was in the 2 path, probably a very similar number to SNS.
scottv Wrote:
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> SNS bothers me because...I would be concerned that he
> has not shown the ability to rate off of
> blistering pace, like B Derek has done
I\'m not sure why everyone is jumping to the conclusion that Bro Derek is rateable. Where does that perception come from? The maiden race at 4.5 where he got up late?
What about his one turn B.C. Juvenile? What happened there? Outside post sure, but long run to the only turn. Anyone think he got outquicked that day, ran wide and didn\'t like it? What about his other ventures away from Santa which he clearly likes? Does anyone think a new track, the pace and and the extra distance might pose an issue?
Personally, I\'m making him more of a pace factor now due to maturity, but he may be even less restrainable. His fight with Sharp Humor is gonna be interesting.
Maybe Bob and Dale have a bet going whose going to be first to the half/mile poll and then whose going to run 19th and 20th.
\"In yesterday\'s column, Sharp Humor\'s trainer, Dale Romans, pretty much threw down the gauntlet and warned opposing trainers that his colt is going to the lead and will look forward to any challenges.
Bob Baffert, trainer of the freakishly fast Sinister Minister, responded by agreeing that Sharp Humor will be in front...\"of the second wave. Sinister Minister will be the first wave by himself.\"