Guys,
I am starting to get on the point determined bandwagon. Another forward move and he is right there. Keep an eye on him and he is Baffert\'s \"other horse\". Retribution for his dad in the Derby. If he his shooting bullets the week before I am all over him.
I also like this pick because he is not being mentioned that much on the board.
Bris late pace rating 113
Final last quarter 24.5
Final 1/8 12.5
Bingo!
Tony said:
\"I am starting to get on the point determined bandwagon. Another forward move and he is right there. Keep an eye on him and he is Baffert\'s \"other horse\". Retribution for his dad in the Derby. If he his shooting bullets the week before I am all over him\"
Bris late pace rating 113
Final last quarter 24.5
Final 1/8 12.5
Tony,
....as long as he can finish that well while racing in the same area code as the pack.They ALL(except dead pullers) can finish big if they go slow early.What makes most of the great ones is their ability to attend within range of a honest/fast pace and STILL finish 24ish the last quarter.
I like him to suck up in the number too.
Mike
Miff---
All numbers aside, I cannot get out of my head that POINT DETERMINED has a tendency to lose ground on turns.
He certainly does a terrific job once he straightens out, but my feeling is that may only get him a minor award. The other thing that bothers me is the \"bunching up\" of races on Jerry\'s sheets. Print out the sheets for previous Derby winners or horses that ran very well. Pretty revealing stuff.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
Very astute observation.He does not run the turns well, he\'s big and green but powerful. I think the CD stretch gives him a good shot to suck up in the number given all the early gas and a few that do not appear to want to go that far.
Miff--
I agree that PD has a terrific shot in the lane to overhaul a number of exhausted runners.
Just feel that maybe one or two of them who can handle turns will have an advantage that he will not be able to overcome. Certainly a terrific underneath play @ 10-1 or better.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I am a Point Determined fan, but not because of Point Given, rather he reminds me of his broodmare sire, Broad Brush. In the Santa Anita Derby, PD accelerated twice - did not \"move\" on the turn as has been discussed - and gained ground in the stretch. Having been there that day and watching Bejarano, it was a safe bet that the jock would not try to make a move on the turn since that had cost both him and a few others the win in earlier races that day. So I don\'t know whether it is a case of a horse who cannot accelerate on the turn (as Sunday Silence could), or a green horse in earlier races with a jockey in the SA Derby that wisely chose not to do so last time.
In any event, here\'s my dilemma...used to be that if you were on the lead in the Derby at the 1/8th pole you were seldom passed for the win. But in the last few years this has certainly changed. I believe that the true 1 1/4 horse is now at a disadvantage as it seems that more \"milers\" are running in and winning these races. I know that last year certainly jolted me on the passing issue as all my exotics were live to Closing Argument, and Giacomo went by him after the 1/16th pole! Backwheels do not make up for Pick 4\'s, Pick 3\'s and DD\'s!
In any event, I am curious as to whether anyone out there thinks that the profile of the Derby winner is changing in this regard and what aspects of milers (positional speed, acceleration?) would be worth noting. My feeling is that an Unbridled, Sunday Silence or Victory Gallup would be at a disadvantage today.
D Deb:
I enjoy watching the old derbies and reading the old charts to glean what the past tells us about derby winners/losers. I did not start following horse racing until 1990, so everything before that is history to me and I enjoy watching what happened.
I think todays derby is different only in the sense that the fields are larger which usually brings about a faster pace which would cause various results on a race. Closers have more traffic to pass, front runners may have more company on the front end, post position and racing luck are huge.
Every Derby has a different pace and is run on a different style track. I would love for Unbridled to be in this year\'s derby, a legitimate closer may eat this field\'s lunch.
Trying to use last year\'s race to explain things is futile. I saw Afleet Alex in person at Oaklawn and I thought the pace of that derby made him a sure thing. I still think Rose moved to early costing Alex the race, but he just seemed to flatten out when he got through in the stretch. Other horses had peaked too soon and were not ready for the torrid pace. Some were not seasoned enough.
The same principles apply each year, some this year have peaked and some just don\'t have enough races under their belt. Yes, a miler can win this year\'s derby and any year\'s derby, but I don\'t think you handicap the race that way. Stay in this game long enough and you play the odds, toss the \"x\" horses and play those that are live.