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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on April 26, 2006, 10:33:36 AM

Title: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: TGJB on April 26, 2006, 10:33:36 AM
\"Are you a follower of the Ragozin sheets? What would you make of a Derby, in which the four top choices earned figures of 12, 10, 9, and 8 3/4 in their final Derby prep? If you said it was a poor group, you\'d be interested to know that those were the final prep sheet numbers for Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid. Times apparently have changed since then\".
                                              --Steve Haskins, Bloodhorse.com


Sidebar: that Affirmed number-- which was probably wrong-- cost me 5k in 1978 dollars. Still the biggest single race bet I\'ve ever made.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: fasteddie on April 26, 2006, 11:19:46 AM
JB:

If I remember correctly, Laurin admitted to being \"lazy\" working Big Red prior to the \'73 Wood; Slew was headed in a race for the first time in his career in the \'77 Wood, (anyone remember Fratello Ed??) as Turner instructed Cruget to rate him, the \'78 S.A. Derby....Affirmed in his usual, workman-like manner. The one I\'m blanking on is the \'Bid\'s 79 Blue Grass. His Fla. Derby would make for an interesting graph as Angel & Jorge V. ran interference on poor Ron Franklin, and he still won by daylight!
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Bally Ache on April 26, 2006, 11:36:01 AM
The big rumor Derby Week in \'73 was that Secretariat was lame (probably in large part because of his poor effort in the Wood). But he had a smashing 5f workout at CD which told anybody who pays attention to works that he definitely wasn\'t lame.

I think he paid 5.00 which is more than he should have paid.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: ezgoer89 on April 26, 2006, 12:13:46 PM
I have an audio file of the 1979 Blue Grass.  Four-horse field... he sat in last around the first turn, swept to the lead on the backside, and drew away to win by five lengths (as called by the Keeneland track announcer).  I\'ve never heard of the other three horses in the race (Pianist, Bishop\'s Choice, and Alot Of Gold).
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on April 26, 2006, 01:38:40 PM
Keeneland didn\'t have a track announcer back then. They first got an track announcer in 1996 I believe (could be97). Was probably a TV announcer, unles you were hearing things.......

NC Tony
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: magicnight on April 26, 2006, 01:56:17 PM
OK, no one else took the bait.

5 large to win on Alydar?

5 large cold exacta?

Do tell.



Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: richiebee on April 26, 2006, 02:15:13 PM
Way to go NCT... cant slip one past the cagey Jesuit, especially on his favorite (soon to be polyester) track.

When will Biancone be running back his swifty from the Antipodes? I think he would be a solid bet in a graded event at any distance up to a mile.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: TGJB on April 26, 2006, 02:52:53 PM
Win bet on Alydar, exactas and trifectas, all of which involved nothing but the 2-3-4 finishers. I watched the race at a Derby party at Dartmouth where I was visiting my brother, drank my weight in mint juleps, and went to a Greatful Dead concert that night that sucked.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Michael D. on April 26, 2006, 02:57:09 PM
the average # for those horses when they stretched out to 10f in the derby was about \'3.5\'. i think they gave giacomo about a \'6\' last year. what\'s really changing here?
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: richiebee on April 26, 2006, 03:00:07 PM
mint juleps probably not the proper pre race medication for the Dead...
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: catherine on April 26, 2006, 03:24:37 PM
The best stuff is always in the backstory. So, 20 years and five weeks later, if Victory Gallop doesn\'t get up (or, if the stewards are given a chance to demonstrate their gutlessness and oblige) he ties Alydar as the only horse to finish 2nd in all three races to a TC winner. Ol\' VG had more than Stevens on his back that day.

Some would say \"Grateful Dead concert ... that sucked\" is redundant. Instead, I\'ll just concur with Richiebee that you were sorely mismedicated.

Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: miff on April 26, 2006, 04:02:23 PM
Catherine,

I believe the use of of the words stewards and gutlessness in the same sentence is also redundant.

Mike
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 26, 2006, 05:52:59 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Win bet on Alydar, exactas and trifectas, all of
> which involved nothing but the 2-3-4 finishers. I
> watched the race at a Derby party at Dartmouth
> where I was visiting my brother, drank my weight
> in mint juleps, and went to a Greatful Dead
> concert that night that sucked.

What kind of odds did you get on that one?


Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: P-Dub on April 26, 2006, 06:43:19 PM
Even money before the concert that it would suck.

I never have figured out why people love their stuff (meaning music).
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Silver Charm on April 26, 2006, 07:14:31 PM
I guess we all learn the hard way,correct???

>Sidebar: that Affirmed number-- which was probably wrong-- cost me 5k in 1978 dollars. Still the biggest single race bet I\'ve ever made.

Wiseguy Horse (326 Views)
Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2006 01:57PM


>Important to handicap it like the Derby, but bet it like it\'s just another race-- don\'t get hung up on cashing or picking the winner, try to make a productive play.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 26, 2006, 07:22:40 PM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess we all learn the hard way,correct???
>
> >Sidebar: that Affirmed number-- which was
> probably wrong-- cost me 5k in 1978 dollars. Still
> the biggest single race bet I\'ve ever made.
>
> Wiseguy Horse (326 Views)
> Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
> Date: April 24, 2006 01:57PM
>
>
> >Important to handicap it like the Derby, but
> bet it like it\'s just another race-- don\'t get
> hung up on cashing or picking the winner, try to
> make a productive play.
>


I dont think I\'d ever have won a derby if i tried to make it a productive play. I always try to find the winner. Odds play a role in tough situations, but first and foremost, after a couple years of learning, I\'ve always thought \"pick the winner and the dollars will come\"
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: bellsbendboy on April 26, 2006, 07:41:45 PM
Excellent post. Would vouch that Jerry is a tons better capper now than then, and hope I have improved. Hype is seldom a good bet, yet sucks us all in at one time or another. bbb
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: ezgoer89 on April 27, 2006, 06:54:05 AM
I found the video of the race which also has the call.  No indication who the announcer is or for whom he works.

If you want a copy of the file, I\'ll email... it\'s only 1 Mb.
Title: Re: Point Of Interest, Maybe
Post by: Silver Charm on April 27, 2006, 07:46:48 AM
I learned the hard way the year Chiefs Crown ran. After rattling off about 6 winners in a row, chalky but winners nonetheless, I called the man back and said let it all ride on Chiefs Crown.

His response was \"gladly\"


>Would vouch that Jerry is a tons better capper now than then.

I\'m sure he is, he is probably a much better gambler too. They do go hand in hand you know

I tend to disagree with his reference that the Derby should treated as just another race from a wagering point of view. I think he is implying don\'t go overboard and bet the farm. However with a 20 horse field and the size of the Mutual Pool the Derby provides opportunities to score far better than say your average weekend Stakes like the Bed of Roses last Saturday.

And I mean this whether the Player is wagering on TRI\'s, SUPERS, OR PICK THREES AND FOURS. Except for Breeders Cup Day you just do not see these kind of payouts. There are 20-1 shots who actually have decent form. How often do you see that.

The Derby provides wagering opportunites that only come around every six months or maybe not for another year........