This horse has the classic in the money line. The probable smart play is to wheel this horse in the exotics in the 1,2,3 hole in the tri\'s and super\'s.
Tony Wrote:
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> This horse has the classic in the money line. The
> probable smart play is to wheel this horse in the
> exotics in the 1,2,3 hole in the tri\'s and
> super\'s.
Really, what did you make of the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he couldn\'t get his head in front?
CTC,
I am just talking about past derby patterns and Brother Derek\'s pattern coming in compared to past derby contenders. Does not matter to me what he did last October.
Tony Wrote:
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> CTC,
>
> I am just talking about past derby patterns and
> Brother Derek\'s pattern coming in compared to past
> derby contenders. Does not matter to me what he
> did last October.
Theres a handicapping technique that says to ignore 2-year old form. Just put an X through it. For the sake of argument lets say we are going to look at 2YO races just for chuckles.
Lets also not forget that October race was a one turn 8.5 marks. By the way, the fractions in that race at the Big Sandy were the fastest that Bro Derek had ever seen. Prior to that race Brother Derek went wire to wire in the Grade II Norfolk. Subsequent to that race Brother Derek has essentially gone wire to wire in each of his other starts. An uncontested wire to wire in his last start at 9 poles. After the finish line Dana666 says he pulled up like an old F-14 Tomcat latching onto an arresting cable. It may be he knows his job is to run as hard as he can to get out front and when the wire comes up he knows his job is over because no one is generally around him. But what does Dana know.
There are no handicapping absolutes. You may be able to ignore 2YO form many times. There are times you can\'t. It depends upon the totality of circumstances.
There are no shortcuts. There are no sure things.
Brother Derek has his hands full Derby Day. The wrong post could mean his demise.
Tony,
No doubt that the running lines look good for Brother Derek. He is the horse most likely to fire on Derby day, but even his best might not be good enough.
Also, how can you wheel the favorite in a 20 horse field in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd slots? Not a great betting strategy unless you really get bombs with him.
CTC,
I hear you. I will be trying to beat him on Derby day as well looking for value. All I am saying is he is a tuff toss in the 1, 2 and three hole.
Don\'t make any decisions until you see the post positions.
B Derek inside two or three speed horses is trouble. Also a wide posts makes him move too soon around the far turn.
Remember Unbridleds Song? Indian Charlie?
This horse has some major problems on both Rag\'s and TG sheets. As far as TG BD sheet, he works his way down to his top for his 2yr line, goes forward in his next start which is the first race of his 3yr. Next be bounces off of that, I will give him that one ( even though it\'s about 6 weeks rest ), but in his last start he doesn\'t fire right back just pairs it up, why? Don\'t you think after about 10 weeks he would have came back around to that neg # ? Also the fast pace will cook him.
is this Bro. Derek we\'re talkin bout?
the only derek i\'ve ever seen as a 10 was Bo!