Here is the ultimate candidate to bounce in the Derby. Just look at ancient history this horse I will not even include in the top three positions in the triple. I might even through him out of the super. I have learned the hard way over the years this jump up line is terrible! I guarantee right here and now this horse will not win let alone finish in the top three positions!
he is unquestionably this year\'s bandini....
Tony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here is the ultimate candidate to bounce in the
> Derby. Just look at ancient history this horse I
> will not even include in the top three positions
> in the triple. I might even through him out of
> the super. I have learned the hard way over the
> years this jump up line is terrible! I guarantee
> right here and now this horse will not win let
> alone finish in the top three positions!
Tony, can\'t argue with what your saying. I think its win or sin for S.M. But you can bet I wont let him beat me.
...or maybe this years Bellamy Rd.
davidrex Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...or maybe this years Bellamy Rd.
actually we addressed this issue already. I for one, dont believe there is any comparison to either the standout/stand alone quality of their respective last preps or the conditions they will face on Derby Day.
Sinister is a huge bounce candidate, but it is the pace that will do him in. Without the other front runners in the race, I would be concerned about this horse. BDerek also keeps him honest with a far turn move.
Without Sinister, this race could take a completely look without a true barnburner in the race.
And don\'t Think Baffert knows it. He\'s got two other horses that need BDerek to collapse in order to have a chance
Or this years Spend a Buck.....
NC Tony
scottv Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sinister is a huge bounce candidate, but it is the
> pace that will do him in.
Assuming Sinister pulls a nice hole and breaks well he\'ll probably make his own pace. Sharp Humor and Mister Triester both have a turn of foot too but I really don\'t think anyone can run with Sinister. He\'s a run off and will be clear. Its an issue of his readiness to throw the entire 10 poles at them and who wants to try and reel him in when hes significantly leading after 4 poles. If he breaks well and maybe even if he doesn\'t break well, he\'ll be opening ground on these. The horse he\'s gonna impact most is Brother Derek. This could be a very tough race for Brother. They say Derek has been training lights out. He better be, because he won\'t be chasing Dawn of War and Henny Hughes this time.
Long story short, I don\'t think the others have enough pace in them to tickle Sinister. He\'s gonna decide this one on his own and will likely leave some very frustrated horses in his wake.
> runners in the race, I would be concerned about
> this horse. BDerek also keeps him honest with a
> far turn move.
>
> Without Sinister, this race could take a
> completely look without a true barnburner in the
> race.
>
>
> And don\'t Think Baffert knows it. He\'s got two
> other horses that need BDerek to collapse in order
> to have a chance
I don\'t agree that Bob and John and Point Determined need a Bro Derek collapse. Bob and John is not the same horse Derek beat in the Hollywood Futurity. John has come along. He learned a lot Wood Day and has every reason to continue to improve.
That said, I don\'t think Bro Derek is going to appreciate having to run at a horse in front of him. In fact, I don\'t think he\'s gonna like it at all. He\'s not going to enjoy his jockey trying to restrain him and hes likely to get tight seeing a horse in front of him. The worst will be when Solis decides Derek is fighting the rating and turns him loose. That will be the acid test. If Derek hasn\'t already squandered his energy fighting Solis and earnestly sets his sights on the horse in front of him its hard to say how he\'s gonna react when all his running doesn\'t get him any closer. He ran game in the B.C.Juvenile. But the Derby\'s two turns and two extra marks could empty the tank. He may spit the bit.
Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t win.
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t win.
I think some like the Churchill Downs angle and project hes still rounding into form. I could be mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to where he was at 2?
He looked like the distance got to him. In the next heat, the pace is going to be severe and he likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was a good race, but other than that who has he beaten and is more pace and more distance really going to be better for this horse?
This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can comment. It is a video of the California Derby. My question is twofold:
1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would have been able to catch Sinister Minister but for the rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny Hop. Its Classic), and;
2. Do you think that Sinister got back in gear after the momentum loss and that at the end of the race was on even momentum terms with Cause to Believe again?
What do you think.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/index.html?videonumber=47&videotype=racing
Sinister doesn\'t have the foundation to win the big one......You\'re correct when you project the speed in this race and the crush into the first turn. If you believe they all cheat...look at Private Vow.
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sinister doesn\'t have the foundation to win the
> big one......You\'re correct when you project the
> speed in this race and the crush into the first
> turn. If you believe they all cheat...look at
> Private Vow.
I think the time tested requirements are a start at 2. He has one. Granted by just a day. Its almost as if this guy is teasing the traditionalists. Trying to goad them into dismissing him. That rail banging nonsense is another thing. Running with his mouth open down the backstretch still another. He has three runs consecutively this year in stakes. Each one progressively better and they are progressively better for a reason. The last one was a Grade I. Maybe the three favorites weren\'t as strong as many thought, however do you really think Barbaro or Lawyer Ron or Brother Derek would have altered the outcome?
I\'m trying to make up my mind. Thats why I asked the questions that I did. Do you think Cause to Believe gets to him without that rail nonsense and do you think after the rail banging Sinister recouped his momentum late?
Watch the videos of the California Derby and Blue Grass and ask yourself \"What is the difference in the rides?\" Then ask yourself, \"How was he ridden in the San Vincente?\" Also, note the way Sinister gets suspended in the gate before the Bluegrass and how quickly he overcomes it.
I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen a horse quite like this. Fascinating.
People seem to forget that Bellamy Road still finished 5th last year. That 5th looks pretty good after going through some of the fastest fractions in derby history and getting hurt during the race. Sinister Minister might bounce as well but he\'s going to be around 8-1 and still might hit the ticket.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> People seem to forget that Bellamy Road still
> finished 5th last year. That 5th looks pretty
> good after going through some of the fastest
> fractions in derby history and getting hurt during
> the race. Sinister Minister might bounce as well
> but he\'s going to be around 8-1 and still might
> hit the ticket.
Actually he finished seventh and there was no clear indication he was injured during the race. It was a very subtle \"injury\" and the announcement that he had popped a splint didn\'t take place until three days after the Derby. Heres what Zito said:
B``The bad news is he popped a splint,\'\' Zito said. ``The good news is the X-rays are clean otherwise, there\'s no fractures so he\'ll be back for the big races this summer.\'\'
Bellamy Road, who won the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths and matched a 32-year-old track record, may have been developing the problem going into the Derby, Zito said. He added that it probably was aggravated during the race.
Lots of \"may have beens\" and \"probablys\" there. Theres the Travers to judge him upon as well. But tend to agree the effort was not absolutely dismal and its not like he didn\'t put in a run. He briefly led the race with about 2 furlongs to go. On Tgraph I suppose it went down as an X. He caught disadvantageous conditions that he wasn\'t predisposed to overcome. The pace clearly was an issue, but he was running on the best part of the track until late.
Chuckles-
You\'re right,he is NOT Bellamy Road.Not nearly as good. After years of passively reading this board but never posting, this whole SM thing has finally pushed me off the ledge. Here goes;
The study that needs to be done is the following: Across the top 10 tracks in the country, for the last 2 years, calculate the average distance between the winner and last place horse for every dirt race. Seperate into two groups of sprints and routes. What you will likely see is that all the tracks are roughly equal with the exception of Keeneland. Everybody who posts here seems to be talented and knowledgeable handicappers. How often are you left clutching your tickets in your sweaty palms waiting for the outcome of a photo finish at Keeneland??? Virtually never.
It\'s not about whether the track was speed favoring or not on BG day. Keeneland has always produced runaway winners, with incredibly strung out fields, and numbers that are often never repeated again. Whether its the track surface, lack of banking on the turns, lush scenery......who knows. It\'s just not able to be simply captured by saying the KEE track was speed favoring or not on a given day. The track simply produces races that you don\'t see elsewhere.
I can\'t tell you how many tickets I\'ve cashed playing against runaway winners at KEE when they show up at another track, or on hores who turned in inexplicably horrendous efforts at KEE. The BG is a complete throwout. Sinister Minister is still just a horse with a solitary MAIDEN 5 1/2F, $62.5K Claiming win on his resume, not a 9F Grade 1 winner. And since I was at GG for the Cal Derby (I live about a mile away) I can tell you with certainty that bouncing off the rail did NOT somehow hide his true Grade 1 form. It showed him to be what he really is; A green, one dimensional horse with a solitary Maiden 5 1/2F, $62.5K Claiming win.
Bellamy Road had a 5 in a 2-turn, $200K stakes race as a 2YO, and a slightly negative number in a mile allowance race as a 3YO before the Wood. No comparison.
Book it; he\'s cloer to last than first in the derby. You\'re a way better handicapper than that Chuckles. The question I struggle with out of the BG is whether BG Cat\'s thoro-pattern can be taken at face value....for all of the reasons listed above
My 2 cents -- horses just don\'t run big new tops in the Derby and Private Vow has to move forward significantly to even hit the board. If the Asmussen elixer hasn\'t kicked in by now, it won\'t happen in the Derby.
Chuckles,
I have some advice for you, obviously it\'s your choice to accept it or not.
I would refrain from any further Sin Min discussion. Just about everyone who posts on this board has a strong opinions about many aspects as it relates to handicapping, horse appearance, and sheet and pattern reading. The sheet readers burned by last years jump up fiasco\'s of Greely\'s Galaxy, Bellamy Road and Bandini(why does a horse have to bounce- what if it doesn\'t as Jimbo points out or only regresses 2 points? what then?) combined with the anti Keeneland group, (which I could never understand how anyone who had any kind of an betting advantage knowing it favored speed (inside speed in particular) would not use it to their betting advantage and continued to try to beat it). You are just wasting your time and finger power posting the merits of the horse. I for one am in your camp. Let the odds float up, that would be to your advantage. As you know young three year olds are all capable of huge jumps this time of year. we should focus on what other horse or horses are capable of the next big jump. Giacomo improved 4 points in last years race, as an example. Who is sitting on the next jump up race? (to fill out the tri\'s and supers!!)
NC Tony
Tony-- you are missing the point. Chuckles WANTS the attention. That\'s why he goes out of his way to antagonize people.
Just asking for opinions from Sinister fans - does Baffert\'s quote in yesterday\'s NY Post Derby Dozen to the effect that the BG \"took a lot\" out of SM concern you at all? I have no firm opinion on the horse\'s chances as of yet, I have been burned in years past falling in love with horses in March and April (Vicar most shamefully), and have been burned buying into pace set-ups two weeks before the race (War Emblem). But I have to admit Baffert\'s comment gave me pause.
tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles-
>
> You\'re right,he is NOT Bellamy Road.Not nearly as
> good. After years of passively reading this board
> but never posting, this whole SM thing has finally
> pushed me off the ledge. Here goes;
>
> The study that needs to be done is the following:
> Across the top 10 tracks in the country, for the
> last 2 years, calculate the average distance
> between the winner and last place horse for every
> dirt race. Seperate into two groups of sprints and
> routes. What you will likely see is that all the
> tracks are roughly equal with the exception of
> Keeneland. Everybody who posts here seems to be
> talented and knowledgeable handicappers. How often
> are you left clutching your tickets in your sweaty
> palms waiting for the outcome of a photo finish at
> Keeneland??? Virtually never.
>
> It\'s not about whether the track was speed
> favoring or not on BG day. Keeneland has always
> produced runaway winners, with incredibly strung
> out fields, and numbers that are often never
> repeated again. Whether its the track surface,
> lack of banking on the turns, lush
> scenery......who knows. It\'s just not able to be
> simply captured by saying the KEE track was speed
> favoring or not on a given day. The track simply
> produces races that you don\'t see elsewhere.
>
> I can\'t tell you how many tickets I\'ve cashed
> playing against runaway winners at KEE when they
> show up at another track, or on hores who turned
> in inexplicably horrendous efforts at KEE. The BG
> is a complete throwout. Sinister Minister is still
> just a horse with a solitary MAIDEN 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win on his resume, not a 9F Grade 1
> winner. And since I was at GG for the Cal Derby (I
> live about a mile away) I can tell you with
> certainty that bouncing off the rail did NOT
> somehow hide his true Grade 1 form. It showed him
> to be what he really is; A green, one dimensional
> horse with a solitary Maiden 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win.
>
> Bellamy Road had a 5 in a 2-turn, $200K stakes
> race as a 2YO, and a slightly negative number in a
> mile allowance race as a 3YO before the Wood. No
> comparison.
>
> Book it; he\'s cloer to last than first in the
> derby. You\'re a way better handicapper than that
> Chuckles. The question I struggle with out of the
> BG is whether BG Cat\'s thoro-pattern can be taken
> at face value....for all of the reasons listed
> above
>
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/25/06 01:46PM by
> tmcdevitt.
I am fully aware of the recent trend regarding the Keeneland surface and how big figure earners upon that surface have generally faired thereafter. But would you not agree that there are some big winners from Keeneland that run very well next? What about Lion Heart? What about The Cliff\'s Edge? Do you think their big Bluegrass was counterfeit?
What about a genuinely special horse blossoming there? When will you know? Once Polytrack is installed? How big will a special horse have to win by? 10 Lengths? 13 lengths? 31 Lengths? Is there a winning margin that will make one say, \"Wait a minute, this place is quirky, but that horse just did something obscene!\"
My question is if a handicapper is fully aware of the Keeneland perceptions, bucks them and wins. Is he the greatest there every was and greatest there ever will be?
Sometimes the fastest scored horse is the right horse for the occasion.
That said, I will be scrutinizing works, post positions and intangibles. I have not made up my mind yet.
STB,
Baffys comments are of concern but not more than neg TG,RAGS and 116 Beyer.Explosions off a rather weak foundation, with poor spacing coming into the derby, sounds equally bad as Sin Min laying down for a couple of days post race.
Add this from someone present \"He(Sin Min) huffed and puffed coming off the track with a visible quiver in his stifle\"
Can he recover enough by the Derby to run big? I would be a sheet heretic if I didn\'t toss this one.
Mike
It doesn\'t make handicapping sense to bet Sinister Minister.
This race is longer, on a different track with a history of killing speed horses.
Odds are too low on him, not like War Emblem or Charismatic (not a frontrunner but did run big before Derby), so really Sinister is a toss from the place positions for me.
Also that big # really came off a ugly looking line. Out of no where he jumps up.
STB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just asking for opinions from Sinister fans - does
> Baffert\'s quote in yesterday\'s NY Post Derby Dozen
> to the effect that the BG \"took a lot\" out of SM
> concern you at all? I have no firm opinion on the
> horse\'s chances as of yet, I have been burned in
> years past falling in love with horses in March
> and April (Vicar most shamefully), and have been
> burned buying into pace set-ups two weeks before
> the race (War Emblem). But I have to admit
> Baffert\'s comment gave me pause.
Bellsbendboy thinks he went off his gallop schedule as well. Add the jockey change, Bafferts comments and the quirky keeneland history and some may toss him. They will be tossing the quickest horse in the race with the best 9 mark figure however and I can guarantee they\'ll be sweating six poles in.
Tuff Stuff.
I wish I could recall Bafferts comments before the War Emblem Derby. Everyone is saying Baffert said Sinister Minister was knocked out by the Blue Grass. He arrived at Churchill yesterday and I\'ll review his works closely. I\'m not going to pay much attention to what Baffert says at this point. He\'s already said Brother Derek wants no part of trying to head Sinister Minister. Now, hes saying \"Poor old Sinister is tired. He\'s gassed. Sinister needs his geritol or he\'ll be coming back to the field on fatigue.\"
To win the Derby you have to say \"This horse is my Derby horse.\" I\'m down to two. Neither will be favored and I\'ve got the 2 fastest horses on Tfigs per my estimation. Not gonna be hasty.
CTC I would ask for a clarification on \"fastest horse\"? Do you use fractional times or final times? As far as Sinister Minister goes, without a breakdown by someone during the races, he would is my solid favorite to finish last. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC I would ask for a clarification on \"fastest
> horse\"? Do you use fractional times or final
> times? As far as Sinister Minister goes, without a
> breakdown by someone during the races, he would is
> my solid favorite to finish last. bbb
Fastest horse refers to the traditional speed figure, which is based upon Final Time. It means a slow time on a slow track can be a much better performance than a fast time on a fast track. Sinister Minister has the best speed figure.
Of course theres Raw Time. Raw times exist in both fractional and final time. Generally Raw Times vary with the speed of the track. Fast Surface, fast raw time. Slow surface, slow raw time.
Regarding Raw Time, Sinister Minister has the essentially the best final and fractional raw times. Brother Derek will argue with that. Derek carved out a 1:48 upon a fast track with slow fractions. Sinister Minister ran a 1.48.4 upon a slow track running hot fractions.
Speed figures are all about slow and fast. Theres always the chance Sinister Minister will finish last. If it happens it won\'t be because he is slow. It will happen because he ran too fast. I don\'t think its likely to happen. Regardless of where he finishes, he\'s in the big dance with the best speed and raw times. Thats something many horses can\'t say. Including First Samurai who will be watching stamina races from the sideline for the rest of his abreviated racing career. If the breeders are smart they\'ll take note of that and not vitiate the breed with any more Storm Cat pedigree.
Now that the mighty, mighty Giant\'s Causeway with the oriental moniker is thoroughly debunked, who have you settled upon to win Bellsbend? Theres no money in picking a loser.
Lion heart; fair enough. The Cliffs Edge??? Never ran another good race in his life. The point though is this; all of those horses, and Bellamy Road, showed that they had some serious quality long before the BG. Sinister Minister had shown that he could win a 5 1/2F maiden claiming race and run like a very inexperienced horse at a mile. What does that equal? Nothing. 116 Beyer,
-1 3/4Rag, great TG....yes, he ran fast around the track on BG day. Throw that out though, and you have a 99-1 shot who will be lucky to crack the top 10, IMHO
The Cliffs edge did run second to his stablemate Birdstone in the Travers. Got hurt in the Travers and retired.
NC Tony
Chuck,
Why do you always have to include, \"what somebody wrote\" everybody here has a good sense of the board.
First Sam\'s book is already full and he is a can\'t miss stallion.
Post position will be vital and I wish I could put horses where I want. If Lawyer draws inside he is toast, ditto Derek...
If pinned down right now I like three: A.P. Warrior looks very good and will certainly run a new top and may explode. Sunriver is training lights out and I would not be surprised if Pletcher finds a \"way\" to run him. Both of these two are coming to the race the right way and fit ten furlongs. For an exotics bomb Steppenwolfer fits the bill. He is fig challenged, but is on the improve. SNS is a total freak who bothers me. People are discounting him because he ran for a TAG... AND If you know why, YOU ARE A GOOD HANDICAPPER??? BBB
Having read every single post on SM, I dont think people are discounting him because he ran for a tag.........
Sinister Minister running for a tag in his second start is a very bad sign indeed. I think he will be pulled up in the Derby, but my real hope is that he does not cause interference or worse. Sweetnorthernsaint on the other hand had good reason to run for a tag. bbb
tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having read every single post on SM, I dont think
> people are discounting him because he ran for a
> tag.........
That Tag race doesn\'t bother me. Let me take the liberty of reviewing his races with some commentary.
March 2005 - Sinister Minister is purchased for 40K at the Barretts Select 2YO in training sale.
12/31/05 - Maiden Race Day. They enter Sinister Minister in a maiden special weight. He catchs a wet sealed track. He can\'t get in front and races four wide finishing mid pack beaten 8 lengths. Still its not a horrible effort, his figure isn\'t atrocious. Its a first out 13. The winner clears by 6 so Sinister is only beaten 2-3 lengths for second. The third place finisher in that race is Point of Impact, a Baffert trained 800k yearling. Do you think old Bobby saw some potential in Sinister that race?
1/20/06 - Happy Birthday Sinister Minister!!! He\'s three now and what better way to celebrate than by breaking far outside in a 62,500 maiden claimer. If he had been claimed that race it would have been a good day for the owners. A first place purse, the claiming fee, and remember he only cost 40,000. Storm Cats should be so lucky.
2/12/06 - \"Hiya Bobby\"... Sinister thinks to himself...\"You\'re the best now, the best there ever was and the best there ever will be. I\'m so happy you bought me Bobby. I like you\" Bobby enters Sinister in a Grade II stakes off that maiden win against GULP...TOO MUCH BLING...and tries a rating gambit with Sinister that doesn\'t pan out. Sinister tries to tell Bob, but the words come out all wrong: \"He choked me Bobby, that monkey on my back choked me...I can do better. You know I can.\"
3/11/06 - California Derby Day at Golden Gate Fields. Sinister looks over Cause to Believe\'s Resume and Whinnies, Hey Bobby, this guy over here has never finished worse than 2nd. He\'s won:
The Cavonnier Juvenile
The Bay Meadows Juvenile
The Mill Valley and
The El Camino Real Derby
Hey that last ones a Grade III whats that mean?\"
Sinister is bet down to under 2-1 in the five horse field and he\'s beaten that day after an incident with the rail. He didn\'t bear in. He bolted in and bunny hopped. Still, it was better than it looked.
\"Bobby, I can do better than that. You know I can. Dont\' give up on me.\"
4/15/06 - Bluegrass Day.
\"Whats a Grade I Bobby? They say this race is one and that horse First Samurai has two of them on his resume. That other horse Bluegrass Cat has a grade II and a Grade III. I know what a Grade III is. I just don\'t like the jump out rail in them.\"
Sinister has a change of lead issue but runs through the stretch on a rope. Steve Haskin has a column with a paragraph titled \"More on the Batty Bluegrass\". Its worth a read. Some folks are saying. Abberation, toss that kind of race. They came home slow, but it was fast slow and it was honest slow considering the early running. Those interior fractions are very interesting.
Good job Sinister, now you got a Grade I too and its better than the ones that other horse had and if you run big in the next one you\'re going to Claiborne. I\'ll tell you about that later.
Chuckles You should spend a bit more time \'capping. I say that because \" I am saying that to myself\" Their is free TG at Kee tommorrow, and a good looking pick 4 sequence. As far as Sinister goes... you may have a good pick here. At least he was able to gallop a mile today. Observers note he has lost only about 75 pounds. He was foolishly fresh, and may be able to work again before God intervenes and scratches him. bbb
That\'s what I like about you Chuckles; nobody makes a 5 1/2F, 3YO $65K maiden claimer winner sound more like a derby contender than you do. If he runs well I\'ll be the FIRST in line to congratulate you.
I just hope that if he runs up the track we don\'t see a classic Chuckles post saying that you really loved the horse that won all along. I may be giving you too much credit, but I just don\'t believe tha you really like him to win
Last I checked there aren\'t many $65K maidens claimed. Plus I think a maiden that wins a SA $65K maiden race probably would win a straight Maiden at almost any other track.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> spa Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t
> win.
>
> I think some like the Churchill Downs angle and
> project hes still rounding into form. I could be
> mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to where he
> was at 2?
>
> He looked like the distance got to him. In the
> next heat, the pace is going to be severe and he
> likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was a
> good race, but other than that who has he beaten
> and is more pace and more distance really going to
> be better for this horse?
>
> This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can comment.
> It is a video of the California Derby. My question
> is twofold:
>
> 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would have
> been able to catch Sinister Minister but for the
> rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny Hop.
> Its Classic), and;
>
> 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in gear
> after the momentum loss and that at the end of the
> race was on even momentum terms with Cause to
> Believe again?
>
> What do you think.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Chuckles,
My answer to 1. is emphatically yes. I\'ve watched the replay plenty of times as the same question you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I\'ve watched I reach the same conclusion. Take away the rail foolishness and I think it\'s CTB by a length or two at the wire.
I don\'t have a strong opinion on your second question. I think it\'s possible SM regained adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on even terms may have been illusory.
It\'s a somewhat moot point though, don\'t you think. We know what SM is all about now and have some feel for what he may be capable of while loose on the lead. It\'s the pressured pace that will characterize his Derby effort that I don\'t think he\'ll appreciate. But perhaps you think he can give them all the slip on the front end, combined with a move forward, even a modest move forward. That\'s not a play I\'ll be making, but it would not be a shocking result. Surprising, definitely.
hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > spa Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow
> can\'t
> > win.
> >
> > I think some like the Churchill Downs angle
> and
> > project hes still rounding into form. I could
> be
> > mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to
> where he
> > was at 2?
> >
> > He looked like the distance got to him. In
> the
> > next heat, the pace is going to be severe and
> he
> > likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was
> a
> > good race, but other than that who has he
> beaten
> > and is more pace and more distance really
> going to
> > be better for this horse?
> >
> > This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can
> comment.
> > It is a video of the California Derby. My
> question
> > is twofold:
> >
> > 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would
> have
> > been able to catch Sinister Minister but for
> the
> > rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny
> Hop.
> > Its Classic), and;
> >
> > 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in
> gear
> > after the momentum loss and that at the end
> of the
> > race was on even momentum terms with Cause
> to
> > Believe again?
> >
> > What do you think.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Chuckles,
>
> My answer to 1. is emphatically yes. I\'ve watched
> the replay plenty of times as the same question
> you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I\'ve
> watched I reach the same conclusion. Take away
> the rail foolishness and I think it\'s CTB by a
> length or two at the wire.
>
> I don\'t have a strong opinion on your second
> question. I think it\'s possible SM regained
> adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was
> also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on
> even terms may have been illusory.
>
> It\'s a somewhat moot point though, don\'t you
> think. We know what SM is all about now and have
> some feel for what he may be capable of while
> loose on the lead. It\'s the pressured pace that
> will characterize his Derby effort that I don\'t
> think he\'ll appreciate. But perhaps you think he
> can give them all the slip on the front end,
> combined with a move forward, even a modest move
> forward. That\'s not a play I\'ll be making, but it
> would not be a shocking result. Surprising,
> definitely.
I really don\'t think we\'ll see move forwards from the top horses at 10 marks. I\'m not projecting a move forward. I think a two or even three point slip will win. The move forward horses will be Jazil and Steppenwolfer, but they\'ll have to contend with the trip.
I think theres something going on with Sinister in the stretch not related to infirmity and I think he\'d have beaten Cause to Believe by six but for the issue. He almost tried to do it again in the Bluegrass, but the jockey was all over him.
As far as a hot pace. That last one was hot and none of the Derby horses is going to want any of that. assuming a 2:02 Derby track he\'ll get away with 46:3 be clear by three and that will leave plenty in the tank.
If he broke poorly and got blocked, I\'d start eating my ticket right then. But all bettors assume the risk of trouble.
My question is who will pressure SM? Whoever does is toast and then SM is toast. But which jockey will sacrifice his horse to insure SM losing?
Have you been reading the quotes from Dale Romans about his plans for Sharp Humor?
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33211
Great,Great effort that this horse shows in all his races.
Unfortuneately ,he\'s like a gifted running back coming out of college in a year of many fast backs.
This just doesn\'t appear to be the year for a wire to wire winner like EMBLEM had.
What\'s to profit from him,is nobody is going to steal this race but him,and him will be out of town that day.
Bit,
This is not the first time Romans has said this.He may want to take a look a some pace figs. Sin Min is off the charts with Sharp Humor and a couple of others with big early gas.
Of note,it was reported that Gomez tried to snatch Sin Min to no avail. He may be a hot, rank one that puts up a 45 and change on May 6th if the surface is glib.
I get my pace FIGS, from a friend of mine who created the EXTRA\'s and by far SM is the fastest from the gate with Keyed Entry second.
There you go Congaree. Finally - Sharp Humor First Fraction is not even close to SM. Keyed Entry could be the other horse cycling back to run big in this race.
NC Tony
Finally, ha