Interesting choices for wise guy horses Jerry. Everybody has their own definition of a wiseguy horse, but for me, it is a horse that should be longer odds, but for some reason the public bets the horse down to lower than expected odds. In the derby, it has been because of breeding (Saarland) and sometimes Pat Day\'s presence + perceived bad trips (Dollar Bill).
I am not sure that you can consider either Sweetnorthernsaint or Sinister Minister \"wise guy\" horses, since they are the two fastest horses on your figs, coming into the race. They are fast enough to win, in fact are the fastest at their tops, so they won\'t be \"overbet\" at the 7-1 to 12-1 range they will probably be in, respectively.
Sinister Minister really presents an interesting problem, IMHO. We all can talk endlessly about the speed bias and skewed results at Keenland and there are a long list of horses that ran their eyeballs out there and finish up the track at Churchill and other race tracks. And, I would certainly agree (as most everybody else probably would too), that a horse running a 7+ point new top, at keenland, running back in 3 weeks, is a bet against in the Derby. However, we are talking about a horse who is 3 points faster than anybody else coming into the race, and oh, by the way, you get Baffert as your trainer and he has won the big ones before. Normally, betting against a horse like this can be value, since they would be short priced favorites. However, what do you do when you do expect the horse to bounce, but he is 3 points faster than anybody else and he will be 10-1 in the race. There is no \"value\" in betting against 10-1 shots. Even if he is 90% to bounce, that still leaves him 10% to pair or better and he wins if he does that. He might even be able to bounce 2 points or so and win, since he figures to lose no ground, on the lead, in a crowded field, where others will lose ground. Granted, off the huge new top, he could bounce to the moon, but at expected odds, with a 3 point edge on the field going in, with an expected groundsaving trip, he is an interesting horse to say the least.
I guess Brother Derek is the horse most likely to run his race in the Derby. He has run basically the same race 3 times this year, which is only 1 point better than his 2 year old top, so he seemingly has room to improve. Plus, he has won his races in hand, so you could argue he has more speed he hasn\'t shown. However, you could also argue that he has not been prepped right for a 20 horse grind. I really don\'t like the fact that he hasn\'t been looked in the eye yet as a 3 year old in the stretch and has galloped through his wins. He won\'t gallop in the Derby and he will have to be very good to win. Considering he is the 3rd fastest going in (counting route figures only), he can\'t be played as the favorite, IMO, although you have to use him in the exotics because is most likely of the favorites to run his race (IMO).
SweetNorthernSaint is an interesting candidate at what should be fair odds. He is 2nd fastest coming in, gets 2 time Derby winner Desormeaux and has tactical speed. He gets 4 weeks rest has several decent figures, besides the big figure in the Illinois Derby. He beat nobody in the Illinois Derby and I get this nagging \"Ten Most Wanted\" feeling when I look at this guy. However, at a square price, he is certainly usable, as the 2nd fastest horse coming in.
Bob and John is a very interesting horse. I don\'t think you can call the Wood race \"wet track aided\", even though the horse is fairly well bred for wet tracks. In the Wood, you get one of those discrepancies between TGraph and Beyer, where Jerry has given the race a faster relative figure, than Beyer has. If JErry is right, the Tgraph player has an edge with Bob and John. At his top, he is as fast as Brother Derek on Tgraph, although less likely to run his race, as it would seem he would be more likely to bounce. Although in the ROTW, the author mentioned that Bob and John had not moved forward much from his 2 year old top, so improvment was due, and that improvement has him as a contender. You get Baffert again, and probably 10-1. Fair price for an improving horse, trained by a Derby winning trainer. Also, interesting that Gomez saw enough to stick with this horse over Sinister Minister, who ran the huge figure at Keenland.
Barbaro will be overbet a bit IMO, since he is an undefeated colt. The five weeks rest will keep some bettors away, which is ironic to tgraph users, since most of us would ignore the 5 week angle and look to get \"value\" by playing a horse off the longer rest that we would think would be helpful, versus the public perception that the 5 weeks will hurt. The irony comes from the fact that Barbaro is a little slower on Tgraph than he is on Beyers, which offsets the 5 week angle. As the 6th fastest coming in and the probable 3rd choice in the betting, I have to bet against and let him beat me.
Lawyer Ron kind of reminds me of Harlan\'s Holiday a bit. He has been very visually impressive in the ARkansas races, hence the HH reference, as I remember watching HH inhale the field in the Florida Derby effortlessly and thinking he was going to destroy the Derby field. However, the races haven\'t come back as fast on the clock/figures as they look visually. Yes, LR is fast, but comparisons to Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex because of the Arkansas route to the Derby, are a little bit off, in that both AA and SJ had run very very fast races in Arkansas. Lawyer Ron\'s last figure wasn\'t bad, as he paired his top, but there are a few negatives. First off, he bore in during the stretch, which is almost never a good sigh. Secondly, he has not had a rest yet since his 2 year old campaign started, which is very unusual for a derby winner (I can\'t remember the last Derby winner that didn\'t get at least 6 to 8 weeks off in the winter). Third, I don\'t like that he seems to have trouble rating. Yes, he made the winning move in the Arkansas Derby when he shot the gap on the rail, but he was a bit rank before the move and that doens\'t bode well going into a race where Sinister Minister will be flying early through hot fractions. And lastly, the price will not be there, because of the winning streak and the Smarty Jones/ Afleet Alex/Arkansas angle. The offshore book I bet at, which is pretty large, has both Lawyer Ron and Brother Derk at 7-2 in the future book now.,
ONe longshot, who may not get in, that I will mention, is Sunriver. I really thought he got a bad trip in the Florida Derby and although he needs a forward move to contend, I think he will move forward next time out and the 5 weeks rest is fine IMO, plus you get Pletcher at maybe 30 or 40 to 1.
More later...
Jim
Jimbo-- I\'ll be getting into a lot of this in the seminar, and don\'t want to tip my hand too much, but on the question of wiseguy horses: I just mean horses that are getting buzz from \"wiseguys\", meaning not the general public, and will go off shorter than one would think (the morning line, if it\'s accurate). That doesn\'t necessarily mean real short, but taking \"angle\" money.
Jerry,
I see the definition of a wise guy horse as one that doesn\'t make sense to the casual observer - ie, there is an angle there that only the sharp guys will find. SNS does not fit that description. He is fast by any measure and has the look of a horse that wants to go on. Fans all across the spectrum will be betting on SNS, and he will probably be third choice.
SM is definitely NOT the wise guy horse. Most sharp handicappers will tell you never to bet the speedball coming out of the Blue Grass. The wise guy angle here is to predict that SM will finish last.
AP Warrior fits the mold more. On paper, he looks to be a notch below the best, but I am reading about some pattern guys who think he is ready to run big.
The horse I consider to be the wise guy selection is Point Determined. He is slower that Bro Derek, and has no Beyers that would put him in the top three. Pace handicappers like him because of the favorable pace scenario though, and I have read comments from from at least three Baffert \"insiders\" who say PD is ready to run a big one. PD reminds me of the all-time best wise guy horse, PD from the \'02 Derby.
.....
In fact, it would not surprise me if Point Determined goes off at the same odds as Perfect Drift did, makes the same closing run from off the pace as Perfect Drift did, and flattens out a bit late and finishes third, just as Perfect Drift did (although if this one collapses, there\'s no reason why PD can\'t be the one to pick up the pieces)....
Jimbo –
Enjoyed your post.
I, too, have been curious about Gomez choosing Bob And John over Sinister Minister. My current thinking is that it may be a function of ownership more than anything. I think Gomez hired Ron Anderson to position him as a national go-to rider in the Jerry Bailey mold, and riding for Stonerside when in doubt fits with that desire (as does riding first call for Pletcher in Johnny V\'s absence). That said, I\'m not sure I\'d be happy about the situation if I owned Sinister Minister. He\'s obviously a tough horse to ride, and it would have been helpful if Baffert had gotten a jockey for the Blue Grass who was willing to stay aboard for the Derby.
I\'ve been trying to guess at the odds line for the Derby. I\'m starting with Watchmaker\'s line in the DRF, which seems to add up about right if you assume a 16% takeout. You\'ve got Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Bob And John all at lower prices than Watchmaker. Your prices make sense to me, but I can\'t figure out who\'s going to drift higher.
Ok, I\'ll take a shot.
Brother Derrick 7-2
Lawyer Ron 4-1
SNS 5-1
Barbaro 8-1
LR is the anti-wiseguy horse, I think he\'ll be longer.
Bitplayer,
With the field not fully determined an accurate odds line is tough to make. For what it is worth (not much), here is my current odds line. I update it a little based on workouts and draw. For now, I have included Sunriver and Flashy Bull instead of Seaside Retreat and Mister Triester. That obviously is a guess.
I always create two odds lines, one which is what I think the odds will be on Derby day and then what I think the actual chances of the horses are. This is what I think the odds will be on Derby day, as I don\'t do my own line until after the draw.
There is a 16% takeout in the line, with about 1% \"breakage\".
Brother Derek 4 to 1
Lawyer Ron 9 to 2
Sweetnorthernsaint 8 to 1
Barbaro 8 to 1
Bob and John 12 to 1
Point Determined 12 to 1
Sinister Minister 12 to 1
AP Warrior 15 to 1
Bluegrass Cat 25 to 1
Jazil 25 to 1
Steppenwolfer 25 to 1
Sunriver 30 to 1
Keyed Entry 30 to 1
Private Vow 30 to 1
Sharp Humor 50 to 1
Showing Up 50 to 1
Storm Treasure 50 to 1
Cause to Believe 80 to 1
Deputy Glitters 80 to 1
Flashy Bull 80 to 1
Gentleman\'s bet then Jerry. I say Lawyer Ron goes off the strong second choice.
A beer at Saratoga next summer...
Jimbo-- less than 5-1 you win, 5.0-1 push, above that I win. Assuming no major scratches.
Uncle Buck-- your comments about SNS are a pretty good indication why he\'s a wiseguy horse. And that\'s not a comment about his chances either way.
this last breeders cup had a classic wise guy horse that won---stevie wonder boy...
not the fastest...bet well below his m.l. ...was picked by a sheet tout(dare I use the word)...broke down after the race(whatever the hell that means)
there are no pushes in racing...heaters...running for purse money only...D.Q....purse money redistributed...teller punches wrong tix....machine punches wrong tix!! but no pushes.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo –
>
> Enjoyed your post.
>
> I, too, have been curious about Gomez choosing Bob
> And John over Sinister Minister. My current
> thinking is that it may be a function of ownership
> more than anything. I think Gomez hired Ron
> Anderson to position him as a national go-to rider
> in the Jerry Bailey mold, and riding for
> Stonerside when in doubt fits with that desire (as
> does riding first call for Pletcher in Johnny V\'s
> absence). That said, I\'m not sure I\'d be happy
> about the situation if I owned Sinister Minister.
> He\'s obviously a tough horse to ride, and it would
> have been helpful if Baffert had gotten a jockey
> for the Blue Grass who was willing to stay aboard
> for the Derby.
>
> I\'ve been trying to guess at the odds line for the
> Derby. I\'m starting with Watchmaker\'s line in the
> DRF, which seems to add up about right if you
> assume a 16% takeout. You\'ve got Sinister
> Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Bob And John all
> at lower prices than Watchmaker. Your prices make
> sense to me, but I can\'t figure out who\'s going to
> drift higher.
>
I\'ll chime in with my gut feeling odds line. I\'m not gonna factor the field and not gonna take the time to consider takeout and breakage.
Brother Derek 7-2
Barbaro 9-2
Lawyer Ron 5-1
Bob and John 9-1
Sinister Minister 11-1
Point Determined 12-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 14-1
Keyed Entery 25-1
Jazil 25-1
Sunriver 28-1
Who cares about the rest.
How many betting interests do they have in the Derby these days? If there are 20 entries with no couplings will there be 20 betting interests, or do they have to make some sort of a field?
SoCal-
They don\'t use a Field. You can bet them all individually.
From Betfair,
Current Odds:
BRO D 4.8
LR 7
BARB 10
SNS 12.5
B&J 14
SIN MI 15
POINT D 15.5
AP WAR 22
BL CAT 60
SH HUM 46
P.VOW 44
SUN RIV 60
CTBelie 28
STWOLF 38
JAZIL 30
Drumroll please for Chuck,
KEYED ENTRY 90
For what it\'s worth, my guess is BD 7/2, LR 6-1, SNS, SM, and Barbaro all 7 or 8 to 1. SNS is 7.6-1 at the biggest offshore joint last I looked.
SM has a 116 Beyer sitting there, Baffert, and a recent Bluegrass blowout that they\'ll show the stretch run of 100 times before raceday. LR has lousy Beyers and Rags.
Lawyer Ron only has one strong race on Rags otherwise he looks very slow, same withe Beyer. So if Lawyer Ron wins the Derby, that would make your figs right on, Jerry ?
I think it\'s a little premature to talk odds. In this 20 horse field, the pp draw will be big.Lets say BD draws post 20. I\'d book every quarter on him at 7/2 but I doubt he would go off there.Depending on the draw there could be a 9/2-ish favorite this year.
I know the post really doesn\'t matter alot for the Derby being the long run into the first turn, but I think if speed is on the outside that\'s really bad for them. Looks like you might have about 7 or 8 horses going up to the front.
I\'ll take my shot:
Brother Derek 4-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 6-1
Barbaro 6-1
Lawyer Ron 6-1
Point Determined 8-1
AP Warrior 10-1
Sinister Minister 12-1
Bob & John 15-1
Steppenwolfer 20-1
Cause to Believe 25-1
Jazil 25-1
Sharp Humor 25-1
everybody else 10-1 combined