Well, by definition the wiseguy horse can\'t be a favorite, and it\'s seldom an extreme longshot. So far this year I\'m hearing 3 names-- A. P. Warrior, Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint.
Started work for the seminar, lots to think and talk about. Important to handicap it like the Derby, but bet it like it\'s just another race-- don\'t get hung up on cashing or picking the winner, try to make a productive play.
Regardless if you cash or blow, the Derby is a very difficult race to handicap.
Twenty horses running a 1 1/4 for the first time, at such a young age. Amazing to me is, the horses that never make it back to the races period.
Some horses regardless off how fast will not do well, because they just can\'t run that far, (Peace Rules) was as fast as Empire maker, got a much better trip but couldn\'t hang on. Congaree, Indian Charlie are just a couple that come to mind. This year, plenty of them have good fast lines,but will not perform because of the Derby hustle. Who are the worst wiseguy horses ever?
Here are mine: Saarland and Dollar Bill
Other Wiseguy nags (in west coast degenerate circles):
Borrego
The Deputy
Hello (broke down)
Ten Most Wanted
Tapit
I agree with all but The Deputy, he was one of the fav\'s going in. Then he vanished from earth.
Does the Wise Guy horse ever win? How likely is he to top or pair?
I think War Emblem and Funny Cide might qualify as wiseguy horses, maybe others.
Silver Charm
Peace Rules may have been faster from the gate than Empire Maker but I\'m sure Frankel would tell you that Peace Rules was no Empire Maker. That conveyor belt in the Blue Grass carried him to a win. And it was severe that day.
As for bad wiseguy horses, I\'d have to put Vicar in there.
Yes, he was faster from the gate. The point was he had the same figs going into the Derby, a pair of 0\'s. But even with his dream trip he still couldn\'t win, because he couldn\'t get the 1 1/4 that young.
Anything Pat Day rode for about a 20 year period.
Nothing against Pat but he probably had more Friday favorites than anybody.
You guys want to be careful about your cause and effect relationships, with Peace Rules and everybody else. There\'s areason we put them on a graph.
The wise guy horses I have heard the most is Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined who Baffy talks down but supposedly likes the most for the derby.
How could SNS be a wise guy horse off his pp\'s? If you watched him in the maiden race Jan. 7th at Acqueduct, he crushed with his giant strides. He did it again in the Miracle Wood. He ran kind of goofy in the Gotham first time under Kent D, but then returned to his normal mode and thumped \'em in Illinois. This horse is second fastest to Bro Derek on TG figs and is lights out in my book. I love him. He runs like a real special horse - one of the best I\'ve seen in 25 years of playing around with these animals. I think he wins May 6th fairly easily.
The Wise Guy horses are always plodders who need that extra furlong to really shine come Derby Day. Atswhati\'mtalkinabout comes to mind. All deep closers that never seem to get there...
One wise guy horse that was very hush hush from what I can recall was Invisible Ink, who ran second to Monarchos in 2001. He went off at 50-1 and was a very nice choice to fill in the exotics...
Uncle Buck,
Take a second look at your T-Graph figs. SNS is not second fastest to Brother Derek. He is faster than Brother Derek.
He is a distant second fastest, but to Sinister Minister.
Buck,
Remember, SNS will need to win from off the lead, which he has never done.He\'s not quick enough to outrun several in here from the gate.I agree a few suck up one paced types getting lots of ink.
He won from off the lead in ILL
Cong,
Not really compared to where he figures to be in the derby.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Does the Wise Guy horse ever win? How likely is he
> to top or pair?
Sure he wins.
Wiseguy horses
Lil E Tee
Sea Hero
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> How could SNS be a wise guy horse off his pp\'s? If
> you watched him in the maiden race Jan. 7th at
> Acqueduct, he crushed with his giant strides. He
> did it again in the Miracle Wood. He ran kind of
> goofy in the Gotham first time under Kent D, but
> then returned to his normal mode and thumped \'em
> in Illinois.
The Gotham wasn\'t all bad, but I agree he didn\'t look dominate in it. I think its pretty clear post Gotham that both Like Now and Keyed Entry are top flite competitors. This is especially so at 8.5 poles. In that context SNS ran wide the whole way but was coming at the end. He did not gallop out past those two however.
That card saw horses rally wide and win. But I was left with the unmistakeable impression that per usual, a good horse inside is golden at the Inner Tube and thats where the other two were. Good horses and Inside. I think SNS grew up in that race and he was hardened by it. Hes gonna be a load now and I think he\'ll be 14-1. I said it first.
SNS or any of these wise guy horses need to be a decent price or then they become a dumb guy horse.
Get the Media to start hyping the one gelding in 70 years and one claimer in 50 years angle and dangle that 14-1 on his number.....then put me down.
But he needs to be double-digit odds to be playable.
Just looking at the kd0422 contnders file and I can see why Jerry is hearing about those Horse\'s and saw Keyed Entry\'s sheet - I think he might be a sleeper sittng on a 02X pattern . It would be interesting though if Sinister Minister should win becouse it would probably be on a backward move almost in the Tradditional Classic Derby Pattern style except with out the 2 yo campaign ...
SNS isn\'t the only claimer going on May 6th. Lawyer Ron started his career in a maiden claiming event for a 50K tag
So if LR goes at 6-1 as TGJB thinks and SNS goes at 7-1 who has the better angle for the dangle........
He was 50-1 in the Derby, but had been bet down to 23-1 in the Derby pool the weekend of the Florida Derby. I don\'t think it was exactly \"hush-hush\", just another case of people going off a horse after a bad Blue Grass. There were legitimate handicapping reasons to like both Invisible Ink and Monarchos just from watching the prep races and reading the charts.
Below are my comments to Warren Eaves for an article he wrote on the Derby which was published on-line in one of the Casino newsletters about two weeks before the Derby...
Invisible Ink,\" begins Giglio, \"in the Florida Derby, this colt got into trouble on the rail and was hit by another jockey\'s whip. He still managed to pull outside and finish third with determination. That move, his bloodlines, and the fact that he was still 23-to-1 in the second Derby Pool, were enough for me to make a future wager. I expected his effort in the Blue Grass would be one of conditioning. Although the chart says he was empty the last eighth, it does not mention his erratic course in the stretch.\"
The lady handicapper didn\'t stop there. \"I was more concerned that Invisible Ink might have been injured rather than just being tired,\" she continued. \"Hearing that Todd Pletcher is still bound for the Derby with Invisible Ink, I can only hope that his sire\'s fourth place finish in the Blue Grass is a hereditary trait, and that Invisible Ink will show up at Churchill.\"
Giglio\'s evaluation of Monarchos? \"His move in the Florida Derby reminded me of Unbridled,\" she began. \"And like Unbridled Song, I also thought he outlooked everyone in the paddock and in the post parade on Florida Derby day. Going into the Wood, trainer John Ward made it clear he was looking for maintenance as opposed to conditioning. I read into this perhaps the horse had peaked too soon.\"
\"After watching the race and reviewing the late charge,\" Giglio continued,\" I believe Monarchos is still a viable candidate. Congaree ran his final three furlongs in 37 4/5. Monarchos covered his last three furlongs in 36 3/5. The fact that Monarchos finished strongly without a life and death effort is a good sign for the race in May. If there was any bounce in him from the Florida Derby it occurred in the Wood. That should not affect him Derby Day when he should be in a position to improve again.\"