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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: richiebee on April 24, 2006, 01:05:50 AM

Title: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: richiebee on April 24, 2006, 01:05:50 AM
IPOD cranking George Harrison now. All Things Must Pass, one of my favorite Beatle albums (well, Ringo played on the album even though GH said Ringo had to be reminded of this years later).

The backstory of the album is fascinating in that 2 members of one of the most notable love triangles in rock history, George Harrison and Eric Clapton, played guitar on the album (George\'s wife Patty left him for Clapton)

\"Because of all the tears/ your eyes can\'t hope to see/  the beauty that surrounds us/ Isn\'t it a pity\".

Anyway, just wanted to point out that the 4th race at Aq, Nov 12, 7F MSW, was won by Steppenwolfer, beating Jazil by a nose. Someone with Formulator (not in my budget) (or an old fashioned set of charts) might be curious to see what subsequently became of the other 9 runners in this heat seeing as the top 2 finishers are Derby bound.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: Bally Ache on April 24, 2006, 05:31:25 AM
Richiebee,

I had Jazil in the Wood (and with Bob & John). I\'m always looking for horses for courses and his earlier race on the Aqu mt was impressive. BUT, in view of the way they sashayed home in the Wood, if he was anywhere near top shelf he\'d have won the race.

I\'d be leery of him in at CD unless he works lights out over that track.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: manning on April 24, 2006, 09:53:45 AM
richiebee,

In the order they finished behind Steppenwolfer & Jazil, via Formulator:

Don\'t Park Now (Tr-David Duggan): 4 starts since, all @ AQU, remians a maiden (now 0-for-7)

Laptop Computer (Violette): Won next out-91 Beyer-tried Tampa\'s Sam Davis (7th), won N1x at Gulfstream-97 Beyer-then ran 2nd in KEE\'s Lafayette Stks.

Vig (Pletcher): Returned Dec 10 on the inner, ran 6th, unsighted since.

Critical Decision (Violette): lost first 2 back, dropeed in for Md50,000 and won by 7 (86 Beyer), finished 3rd in AQU OC75k/N1x last week.

Rockandahardplace (Hennig): raced twice at GP, 7th to Throng on 1/11, took MSW 4/8 (68 Beyer).

Brilliant Cut (Frankel):  No races/works since.

Patriot Game (Zito): sent to Fla, finished 3rd to He\'sanoldsalt @ Crc, broke Maiden at GP next out (80 Beyer), has since lost twice in N1x\'rs (5th/last to Sunriver @GP, 3rd last week @ KEE).

Scots Pine(McLaughlin): 3rd to Jazil next out,won MSW 2 starts later (74 Beyer), has since been off the board in pair of OC/N1x at Big A.

Delta Dancing (Alexander): Been off board all six starts, most recently for Md20k at GP.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: tmon on April 24, 2006, 01:14:13 PM
You must have read the same handicapping book I did. It had a key race where all the horses won their next race. Including one that didn\'t run until the next year.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: richiebee on April 27, 2006, 11:16:41 PM
Manning:

    Thanks for your effort on the \"key\" Derby maiden race. Actually, there was a second one: July 30 2005- 5th race Sar -- 6f MSW-- Winner Private Vow, 2nd Flashy Bull, (3rd Tahoe Warrior, who I think subsequently won a stake). Do you have time to investigate this one?

    If there is any expense involved, please send a bill to Charles T. Clown, c/o the War Room

     
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: manning on April 28, 2006, 09:30:21 AM
Ok, again, in order behind the top 2:

Tahoe Warrior (Pletcher): lost his next 4 dirt starts (2nd twice at Club Med) before breaking mdn on grass.  Tried the Pollified Lanes End at TP and got beat 20 lgths, and was recently 2nd to ill-fated stablemate Up an Octave in Kee grass stks.

Kilimanjaro (Biancone): Won MSW next out at Spa (73 Beyer); also found the Polly a bad fit and finished 7th in ungraded stk at TP, and just recently won N1x at Kee w/ 92 Beyer.

Park Ave. Prince (S. Klesaris): made next two starts around 2 turns at Del, finished 2nd then 1st (both times given 72 by Beyer); won N1x right back (83 Beyer) and was 4th in the Remsen.  Lone 3yo start was a last place finish in Barbaro\'s Holy Bull at GP.

Desert Quest (Zito): Madien breaker 2 starts later at Kee (81 Beyer), lost 5 times since, once on grass, last raced at Kee finished 4th for $75k tag.

McCalmont (Hennig): 4th next out to Kilimanjaro, then 5th in Bel MSW, hasn\'t started since.

Sharp Attack (D. Wayne): Won next 2 starts over TP\'s Polly (73 & 75 from Beyer), then 4th in Breeders\' Fty & 11th in Gr3 Iroquois.  4 starts so far at 3 (3 in stks co.) off board each time.

Sixteen Gauge (Pletcher, then): not close in next 3, brk mdn @ Crc for $25k tag;  lost only 3yo start in Feb for $40k tag.

Noble Deeds (Hough): this was lone dirt start; Broke maiden 3 starts later (3yo debut) at GP on grass (77 Beyer), and won again Wed. in Kee turf N1x (87 Beyer).

Obi Wan (Klanfer): lost next 7 in MSW/Mdn clm races in NY; did get a win for $50k tag last month on Inner (80 Beyer), now 1-for-10.

Kid Carousel (Schulhofer\'s kid): Won next out on grass at Spa (81 Beyer), ran 5th in Canadian Gr2, also on grass, and hasn\'t raced yet at 3.

I\'d include the suggested invoice, but I\'m afraid it\'d be returned with a lengthy discourse on what it all means.
Good luck...
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: MO on April 28, 2006, 06:33:58 PM
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> IPOD cranking George Harrison now. All Things Must
> Pass, one of my favorite Beatle albums (well,
> Ringo played on the album even though GH said
> Ringo had to be reminded of this years later).
>
> The backstory of the album is fascinating in that
> 2 members of one of the most notable love
> triangles in rock history, George Harrison and
> Eric Clapton, played guitar on the album (George\'s
> wife Patty left him for Clapton)
>
> \"Because of all the tears/ your eyes can\'t hope to
> see/  the beauty that surrounds us/ Isn\'t it a
> pity\".
>
> Anyway, just wanted to point out that the 4th race
> at Aq, Nov 12, 7F MSW, was won by Steppenwolfer,
> beating Jazil by a nose. Someone with Formulator
> (not in my budget) (or an old fashioned set of
> charts) might be curious to see what subsequently
> became of the other 9 runners in this heat seeing
> as the top 2 finishers are Derby bound.

So WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH GH???? Better leave the music analogies to a pro...........


Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: richiebee on April 28, 2006, 07:47:13 PM
MO:

It had absolutely NOTHING to do with GH... I hope you didn\'t spend too much of your rehearsal time trying to make the connection.

But speaking of relevance, Bugle Boy, why not have another drink and make us another nice Aunt Margaret post.

All of us are entitled to appreciate and discuss music and musicians, not just highly talented performers such as yourself.

And if your point is that a discussion not strictly related to handicapping is not proper on this board, why don\'t you tell us again how Louisiana Downs\' problems can ultimately be tied to their mistreatment of the track bugler.

Believe me, Bugle Boy, I for one wouldn\'t miss it at all if they replaced the track bugler with a canned \"Call to the Post\".

My posts are usually self serving and sometimes lacking in relevance. Until TGJB decides to delete them, feel free to ignore them.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited + ROTW
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on April 28, 2006, 10:09:55 PM
Richie,

Are you seeing the \"Inner Light\"?

I know the 11 post is a major obstacle, but you hardly ever see J Orseno ship  for a race these days.  And he Brings Bravo to take on the west coast boys.I really like his running lines. Even though he bounced on paper, his dirt to turf  now back to dirt is a running line that I like.

Will be very good value. So Richie wHile your Guitar gently weeps, I think TG has pointed out the rest of the exacta /tri horses to play.

NC Tony
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 29, 2006, 02:43:55 AM
manning Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee,
>
> In the order they finished behind Steppenwolfer
> & Jazil, via Formulator:
>
> Don\'t Park Now (Tr-David Duggan): 4 starts since,
> all @ AQU, remians a maiden (now 0-for-7)
>
> Laptop Computer (Violette): Won next out-91
> Beyer-tried Tampa\'s Sam Davis (7th), won N1x at
> Gulfstream-97 Beyer-then ran 2nd in KEE\'s
> Lafayette Stks.
>
> Vig (Pletcher): Returned Dec 10 on the inner, ran
> 6th, unsighted since.
>
> Critical Decision (Violette): lost first 2 back,
> dropeed in for Md50,000 and won by 7 (86 Beyer),
> finished 3rd in AQU OC75k/N1x last week.
>
> Rockandahardplace (Hennig): raced twice at GP, 7th
> to Throng on 1/11, took MSW 4/8 (68 Beyer).
>
> Brilliant Cut (Frankel):  No races/works since.
>
> Patriot Game (Zito): sent to Fla, finished 3rd to
> He\'sanoldsalt @ Crc, broke Maiden at GP next out
> (80 Beyer), has since lost twice in N1x\'rs
> (5th/last to Sunriver @GP, 3rd last week @ KEE).
>
> Scots Pine(McLaughlin): 3rd to Jazil next out,won
> MSW 2 starts later (74 Beyer), has since been off
> the board in pair of OC/N1x at Big A.
>
> Delta Dancing (Alexander): Been off board all six
> starts, most recently for Md20k at GP.

Guess that puts an end to the Key Race Theory.

I certainly can see these two on my ticket. I can\'t see them being the Key however. It wasn\'t a brutal pace that got Giacomo up last year. It was much more than that. I\'m also not sold on the notion that a brutal pace will develop. The only evidence of that is Dale Romans cheeseburger bravado. If he\'d eaten a nice salad he\'d never have said a word.


Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited + ROTW
Post by: richiebee on April 29, 2006, 05:09:08 AM
NCT and CTC:

    Will be suspending studies of the big race for a round of Saturday golf.

    Best of luck in your wagering endeavors today. I need to start looking into the Oaks, because with a full field on Friday that Oaks/Derby gimmick can be fun. When else can you be \"alive in the double\" for 24 hours?

    Chuckles, I haven\'t heard any comments from you on Bro Derek\'s pedigree..

    My \"Top Ten\" remains unchanged. With anticipated odds:

    1) SNS (6/1)
    2) B and J (10/1)
    3) Point D (15/1)
    4) Jazil (30+/1)
Title: Bro Dereks genetic predispositions
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on April 29, 2006, 06:29:06 AM
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NCT and CTC:
>
>     Will be suspending studies of the big race for
> a round of Saturday golf.
>
>     Best of luck in your wagering endeavors today.
> I need to start looking into the Oaks, because
> with a full field on Friday that Oaks/Derby
> gimmick can be fun. When else can you be \"alive in
> the double\" for 24 hours?
>
>     Chuckles, I haven\'t heard any comments from
> you on Bro Derek\'s pedigree..
>
>     My \"Top Ten\" remains unchanged. With
> anticipated odds:
>
>     1) SNS (6/1)
>     2) B and J (10/1)
>     3) Point D (15/1)
>     4) Jazil (30+/1)


To my eye, Bro Derek\'s pedigree isn\'t the real problem. He\'s obviously a very high spirited horse as is indicated in his running lines. He wants to be in front and theres been no effort by Hendricks to attempt to put some rating into his game. Theres been no need to. The fields he\'s faced with the exception of the Breeders Cup Juveniles didn\'t have enough speed to encourage rating was necessary. That said, Mister Triester is a quick horse.

Now, they have to win at an extra poll with a protracted pace duel or suddenly learn to rate kindly behind the pace. I just don\'t see the latter happening, you have to factor winning with the former.

Benchmark is a great horse and could sire any kind. I\'m much less enamored with the Siyah Kalem part of his pedigree and the near Relaunch. If you expand his pedigree to trace the 8 major branches the branch I really like is Gavel Gerties sire branch (Flit To) But her female family (Marisa) is so weak it leaves you wondering why they bothered.

p.s. Bro\'s mare is grey and when the color descends I generally factor the ability descending similarly. She got her grey from Relauch.

Bottom line, he\'s already proven hes a good 9 mark horse. I don\'t see enough to believe more ground under pressure is up his alley. But I\'m factoring his prefered running style, his shutdowns post wire, his propensity to get worked up (and sedated by the way) and the conditions he will be facing Derby Day more than pedigree. In another setting, I\'d be more prone to think he\'d cross the wire first at 10 marks. Like if he could run against his Santa Anita Derby competition again. Sure, 10 marks no problem.
Title: Re: NW2LT Revisited
Post by: MO on April 29, 2006, 09:05:21 AM
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO:
>
> It had absolutely NOTHING to do with GH... I hope
> you didn\'t spend too much of your rehearsal time
> trying to make the connection.
>
> But speaking of relevance, Bugle Boy, why not have
> another drink and make us another nice Aunt
> Margaret post.
>
> All of us are entitled to appreciate and discuss
> music and musicians, not just highly talented
> performers such as yourself.
>
> And if your point is that a discussion not
> strictly related to handicapping is not proper on
> this board, why don\'t you tell us again how
> Louisiana Downs\' problems can ultimately be tied
> to their mistreatment of the track bugler.
>
> Believe me, Bugle Boy, I for one wouldn\'t miss it
> at all if they replaced the track bugler with a
> canned \"Call to the Post\".
>
> My posts are usually self serving and sometimes
> lacking in relevance. Until TGJB decides to delete
> them, feel free to ignore them.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/28/06 10:48PM by
> richiebee.

Something crawl up you ass and die today?
Thanks for the personal attack.